Can interest rates really control house prices? Effectiveness and implications for macroprudential policy

This paper investigates how changes in the central bank policy and retail mortgage rates affected real housing prices in New Zealand during the period 1999–2009. We find that real interest rates are significantly and positively related to real housing prices, indicating that increases in the policy rate may not be effective in depressing real housing prices. By testing interest rates, we also find some evidence of housing price bubbles. Our findings suggest that the central bank could have limited housing price bubbles if it had started to intervene in the housing market prior to 2003. Our results set international exemplars for using policy rates or macroprudential tools to cool the housing market, where the extent of policy rate adjustments is limited by internal or external economic factors.     

Housing booms and bank growth

The rapid increase in U.S. house prices during the 2001–2006 period was accompanied by a historically rapid expansion of bank assets. We exploit cross-regional variation in local housing booms to study how housing demand shocks affected the growth of the banking sector. We estimate the effect of housing demand shocks that are orthogonal to observed non-housing demand shocks and credit supply shocks in each bank’s market area. We employ several instrumental variables that plausibly identify variation in local housing demand that is exogenous to local banks. We find that the housing boom had a large effect on bank asset growth—the cross-regional elasticity of bank growth with respect to housing demand shocks is around 0.6. The regional elasticity estimate suggests that housing demand shocks can potentially account for a large fraction of the growth of the banking sector during this period.     

A Cross‐Country Analysis of the Bank Supervisory Framework and Bank Performance

Ongoing changes in the structure and nature of banking, as well as banking crises across the globe have focused the attention of policy makers on the appropriate structure, scope, and degree of independence of banking supervision. Key issues for banking supervision structure are whether there should be one or multiple supervisory authorities, and whether the central bank should be involved in bank supervision. The issue pertaining to the scope of supervision is whether bank supervisory authorities should supervise other financial service industries, including in particular securities and insurance. Finally, the issue regarding the independence of supervisory authorities is the degree to which bank supervisors should be subject to political and economic policy pressure and influence. How these issues are addressed is important, because policies that fail to provide for an appropriate bank supervisory framework may undermine bank performance and even lead to full‐scale banking crises. The intense interest policy makers have shown in these issues has not been matched, however, by researchers. In particular, there is very little systematic empirical evidence on how, or indeed whether, the structure, scope, or independence of bank supervision affects the banking industry. This paper addresses this gap in three respects. First, drawing on the existing literature, we discuss the various policy issues surrounding the structure, scope, and degree of independence of bank supervision. Second, we provide comparative information on the actual choices that have been made regarding these three aspects of supervision across a wide range of developed and emerging market economies. Third, using both country‐specific data for 55 countries in all parts of the world, and data for over 2,300 individual banks in those countries, we examine the relationship between the structure, scope, and independence of bank supervision and one key dimension of the banking industry – bank profitability. Our results indicate, at most, a weak influence for the structure of supervision on bank performance. In particular, we find some evidence that a single‐supervisor system enhances bank performance. However, following our discussion of the caution one must use in interpreting data on the supervisory framework, our re‐estimates using an alternative source of data on the structure of supervision failed to duplicate this result. Our results have a bearing on a key dimension of the policy debate on how to structure supervision. In particular, given the dearth of empirical evidence on the issues, advocates of one form or another of supervisory structure have asserted that a particular change is likely to affect (favorably or adversely, as the advocate sees fit) the performance of banks. Our results provide little support at best to the belief that any particular bank supervisory structure will greatly affect bank performance. This is significant, because it suggests that the on‐going debate might more broadly focus on the impact of the supervisory structure on other aspects of the health of the banking system, including individual bank safety and soundness, systemic stability, and the development of the banking system.     

经济适用住房购买政策与贷款政策冲突的原因及对策——以上海市徐汇区经济适用住房试点为例

上海安居房工程试点工作中,出现了一类陷于尴尬处境的人群,他们人均收入远低于2300元,获得了住房保障中心购买经济适用住房资格,却得不到银行贷款资格,产生这种现象的实质是政府制定的购房政策与银行贷款政策的冲突所致。政府在正式实施安居房工程时,应该同步推出廉租住房、经济适用住房,以申请人还款能力作为出发点,按还款能力大小确定经济适用住房或廉租住房,视目标群体还款能力的变化,调整经济适用住房或廉租住房的建造安排比例,以此避免购房政策、贷款政策的冲突,让中低收入者真正实现＂居者有其屋＂的愿望。     

宏观审慎政策工具的有效性检验——基于对114家商业银行的实证分析

本文基于国际货币基金组织调查数据库构建中国宏观审慎政策工具综合指标,同时选取存款准备金率和贷款价值比上限代表宏观审慎政策工具,检验宏观审慎政策工具的有效性.通过对2008—2018年间我国114家商业银行的实证检验发现,无论是单一宏观审慎政策工具,还是宏观审慎工具综合指标,均能抑制信贷规模以及房价的快速增长,减少系统性风险的积累;且针对特定目标设立的宏观审慎政策工具的政策效果更为显著.进一步研究发现,宏观审慎政策工具在微观层面也能有效抑制银行风险.就具体的政策效果而言,相较于国有银行和股份制银行,规模较小的城商行和农商行对宏观审慎政策工具的反应更为敏感.     

Optimal Monetary Policy Rules and House Prices: The Role of Financial Frictions

We probe the scope for reacting to house prices in simple and implementable monetary policy rules, using a New Keynesian model with a housing sector and financial frictions on the household side. We show that the social‐welfare‐maximizing monetary policy rule features a reaction to house price variations, when the latter are generated by housing demand or financial shocks. The sign and size of the reaction crucially depend on the degree of financial frictions in the economy. When the share of constrained agents is relatively small, the optimal reaction is negative, implying that the central bank must move the policy rate in the opposite direction with respect to house prices. However, when the economy is characterized by a sufficiently high average loan‐to‐value ratio, then it becomes optimal to counter house price increases by raising the policy rate.     

我国股票市场和房地产市场对货币流速的影响

探讨股市和房市对货币流速的效应是对货币流速影响因素进行实证研究的一个方向。实证结果表明,我国股市、房市变量与狭义货币流速、广义货币流速均存在长期均衡关系,且与货币流速负相关,狭义货币流速主要受股市影响,广义货币流速主要受房市影响。股市和房市导致货币流速下降的原因,有助于解释我国的一些经济现象,同时也提醒我们应进一步规范股市和房市的发展,央行制定货币政策时应该考虑股市和房市对货币需求的影响,要采取预防性货币政策,保持经济与金融的稳健运行。     

我国产险公司个险产品与银行对接的创新方向

本文分析了我国产险公司与银行在个险产品上的合作现状,研究了西方国家保险业发展的相关经验,然后结合实际提出了我国产险公司个险产品与银行对接的若干创新方向.主要包括:在产品相对简单的大型个险市场与银行网站和电话银行对接;与银行业务类似或互补或利用银行结算等功能对接的产品创新;与保护银行和消费者利益及建立有效的风险共担机制对接的产品创新;与银行追求高额利润和以"问题解决者"面貌出现的产品及金融服务创新;与银行卡及楼宇按揭客户等银行核心资源对接的分散业务的批发化创新;与保险交易的便利性对接的保单标准化组合化及卡式保单创新;等.     

银行信贷、房地产价格与经济增长的非线性关系研究——基于省际面板平滑转换模型的实证检验

选用中国2000~2014年31个省的面板数据,以银行信贷为转换变量,通过构建面板平滑转换模型对我国房地产价格与经济增长的非线性关系进行考察。研究发现：当信贷增长率低于28.74%时,房价增长率对经济增长产生比较显著的正向影响;当信贷增长率高于28.74%时,房价增长率对经济增长起到了明显的阻碍作用。因此,为了实现“稳定房价和保持经济平稳增长”的目标,央行应将信贷增速维持在低增长体制的最优区间中。同时,央行还应该改善信贷结构,鼓励和引导金融资源进行合理配置。     

How effective are macroprudential policies? An empirical investigation

In recent years, policymakers have generally relied on macroprudential policies to address financial stability concerns. However, our understanding of these policies and their efficacy is limited. In this paper, we construct a novel index of macroprudential policies in 57 advanced and emerging economies covering the period from 2000:Q1 to 2013:Q4, with tightenings and easings recorded separately. The effectiveness of these policies in curbing credit growth and house price appreciation is then assessed using a dynamic panel data model. The main findings of the paper are: (1) Macroprudential policies have been used far more actively after the global financial crisis in both advanced and emerging economies. (2) These policies have primarily targeted the housing sector, especially in the advanced economies. (3) Macroprudential policies are usually changed in tandem with bank reserve requirements, capital flow restrictions, and monetary policy. (4) Our analysis suggests that macroprudential tightening is associated with lower bank credit growth, housing credit growth, and house price appreciation. (5) Targeted policies – for example, those specifically intended to limit house price appreciation – seem to be more effective, especially in economies where bank finance is important.     

Loss given default of high loan-to-value residential mortgages

This paper studies loss given default using a large set of historical loan-level default and recovery data of high loan-to-value residential mortgages from several private mortgage insurance companies. We show that loss given default can largely be explained by various characteristics associated with the loan, the underlying property, and the default, foreclosure, and settlement process. We find that the current loan-to-value ratio is the single most important determinant. More importantly, mortgage loss severity in distressed housing markets is significantly higher than under normal housing market conditions. These findings have important policy implications for several key issues in Basel II implementation.     

An Analysis of European Banks' SND Issues and its Implications for the Design of a Mandatory Subordinated Debt Policy

During the last twenty years an increasing number of proposals to improve bank market discipline through the introduction of a mandatory subordinated debt policy (MSDP) have been presented and critically discussed by academic economists and bank regulators. While theoretical issues are key in this debate, a proper understanding of the market for banks' subordinated notes and debentures (SND) and the main features of securities is also considered relevant for the potential introduction, design and goals setting of such a policy. This paper builds on information concerning issuers, investors, markets, pricing and the technical features of securities to critically discuss these aspects. Data on over 1800 European banks SND issues completed during the 1988–2000:Q1 period together with information on primary and secondary market functioning are presented.     

Does competition influence the bank lending channel in the euro area?

This paper examines how competition influences the bank lending channel in the euro area countries. Using a large panel of banks from 12 euro area countries for the period 2002–2010 we analyze the reaction of loan supply to monetary policy actions depending on the degree of bank competition. We find that the effect of monetary policy on bank lending is dependent on bank competition: the transmission of monetary policy via the bank lending channel is less pronounced for banks with extensive market power. Further investigation shows that banks with less market power were more sensitive to monetary policy only before the financial crisis. These results suggest that bank market power has a significant impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy. Therefore, wide variations in the level of bank market power may lead to asymmetric effects of the single monetary policy.     

The Effects of the Sharing Economy: How Does Internet Finance Influence Commercial Bank Risk Preferences?

In this article, we provide an evidence on the effects of the sharing economy by studying internet finance. It aims to explore how internet finance affects the relationship between commercial bank risk preferences and monetary policy, and discusses whether this impact varies across heterogeneous banks. The results suggest that having a loose monetary policy encourages a preference for risk. In addition, internet finance alters the sensitivity of bank risk behavior to monetary policy. Internet finance has a heterogeneous influence, depending on a bank’s ownership (i.e., state or private) and size. At privately owned banks, internet finance has only a moderate impact on the bank risk-taking transmission channel of monetary policy, unlike the subsample of large banks.     

欧洲主权债务危机的根源与出路

欧洲主权债务危机是主权问题与银行问题相互作用的结果,其根源在于欧洲银行体系和政治结构的特殊性。要化解主权债务危机需要实现财政政策的一体化和银行监管的一体化,同时进一步推动欧盟和欧元区改革。     

Bank loan-loss provisions and the income-smoothing hypothesis: An empirical analysis, 1976–1984

This article tests an income-smoothing hypothesis for a sample of 106 large bank holding companies for the period 1976 to 1984. Our focus is on the behavior of the provision for loan losses as a function of bank income and alternative measures of business conditions likely to affect loan portfolio risk-taking or quality. Using an econometric model with pooled time-series, cross-sectional data, we find evidence of income-smoothing behavior over our test period. Our dummy-variable models indicate that regional banking companies tend to engage in income smoothing more than money-center banks. Alternative motivations for income-smoothing behavior, which include bank regulatory policy, risk management, agency theory, and compensation policy, are explored and their policy implications considered.     

The effect of banking market structure on the lending channel: Evidence from emerging markets

This paper analyses the extent to which the level of bank competition influences monetary policy transmission. Using a large panel dataset of 978 banks from 55 countries, and employing the Lerner index model as a measure of market structure, our results show that an increase in banking sector competition weakens the effectiveness of monetary policy on bank lending. The findings are robust to a broad array of sensitivity checks including control of alternative measurements of the Lerner index, different samples and different methodological specifications. By extension, these results have important policy implications for regulators in assessing the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission mechanisms.     

The interest rate pass-through in the euro area during the sovereign debt crisis

We investigate the pass-through of monetary policy to bank lending rates in the euro area during the sovereign debt crisis, in comparison to the pre-crisis period. We make the following contributions. First, we use a factor-augmented vector autoregression, which allows us to assess the responses of a large number of country-specific interest rates and spreads. Second, we analyze the effects of monetary policy on the components of the interest rate pass-through, which reflect banks' funding risk (including sovereign risk) and markups charged by banks over funding costs. Third, we not only consider conventional but also unconventional monetary policy. We find that while the transmission of conventional monetary policy to bank lending rates has not changed with the crisis, the composition of the pass-through has changed. Specifically, expansionary conventional monetary policy lowered sovereign risk in peripheral countries and longer-term bank funding risk in peripheral and core countries during the crisis, but has been unable to lower banks' markups. This was not, or not as much, the case prior to the crisis. Unconventional monetary policy helped decreasing lending rates, mainly due to large shocks rather than a strong propagation.     

Housing Policy in Developing Countries: Conjectures and Refutations

This article discusses housing policy in developing economies.It examines recent research findings in light of earlier argumentsas to the benefits of more market-oriented approaches. It alsolooks at whether the recommendations of earlier work have beenrefuted or developed in subsequent analyses and policy measures.In particular, it reviews the empirical analysis of the effectsof policy on housing supply, the richer understanding of theeffects that land market regulations have on housing affordabilityand the functioning of urban areas, and the alleged mysteriouseffects that researchers claim effective property rights haveon housing policy and on development more generally. It alsoexamines the effects of the increased emphasis on communityparticipation, showing how it helps to more fully reconcilethe incentives faced by beneficiaries of housing policy anddonors. Finally, it examines recent literature on the welfareeffects of rent control. The article shows that some of theconjectures as to the likely benefits of more market-based policyhave been refuted, but large welfare gains for poor people canstill be realized by adapting this approach. Furthermore, thisapproach appears to be gaining ground as the consensus approachto effective housing policy.