近期我国外汇贷款和短期外债“双高”分析

一、近期我国外汇贷款和短期外债余额呈现“双高”中国人民银行的最新数据显示,我国境内金融机构外汇贷款增长迅猛。截至2004年1月末境内金融机构外汇存款余额同比增长0.9%,而同期外汇贷款余额同比增长27.8%,其中短期贷款同比增长49.7%,成为贷款增长的主流。2003年9月末,短期外     

利率、汇率对外汇存贷款规模影响几何

2003年中国外汇存贷款市场上出现了一个新的现象，那就是外汇存款的下降和外汇贷款的高速增长。引起这种变化的因素很多，也很复杂，其中最重要的属利率和汇率。     

上调外汇存款准备金率对外汇业务的影响

四大影响影响一:对银行外汇贷款的规模扩张起到限制作用。上调外汇存款准备金率的题中之意在于,锁定金融机构外币头寸,减少外币贷款的扩充压力,抑制其投放。相对于人民币贷款,外汇贷款的增长并不显著。但央行上调外汇存款准备金率,是要防范由于中美利差缩小     

贷款替代及其成因分析

企业在向银行申请贷款时,不是直接申请人民币贷款,而是先申请外汇贷款;在取得外汇贷款后,不是使用外汇资金,而是将外汇贷款结汇给银行,取得人民币资金加以使用,这种现象称为贷款替代。贷款替代发生的主要原因有:本外币贷款利率存在差异、国内执行紧缩货币政策与本币具有升值预期。贷款替代在降低企业融资成本与取得汇兑收益的同时,也会给一国的宏观经济造成一定的负面影响。     

创新置换贷款 提高外汇贷款综合收益

近几年，人民币贷款利率远高于美元等外汇贷款利率，本外币贷款存在较大的利差，导致国内市场对美元等外汇贷款需求强烈。而建行目前外汇资金实际情况是：美元头寸严重不足，还存在拆借成本高，拆借程序多、时效性不强等问题。相对而言，部分企业已在港上市使得港币资金相对充裕，而港币资金上存收益较低，通过分析，近几年来港币汇率与美元汇率一直保持联系汇率，即在短期内美元和港币的汇率不会有大的波动。     

近年来我国贷款替代及其成因分析

企业在向银行申请货款时,不是直接申请人民币贷款,而是先申请外汇贷款;在取得外汇贷款后, 不是使用外汇资金,而是将外汇贷款结汇给银行,取得人民币资金加以使用,这种现象称为贷款替代。贷款替代发生的主要原因有:本外币贷款利率存在差异、国内执行紧缩货币政策与本币具有升值预期。贷款替代在降低企业融资成本与取得汇兑收益的同时,也会给一国的宏观经济造成一定的负面影响。     

对外汇贷款业务发展的建议--杭州萧山区外汇贷款业务调查

2002年以来,萧山区外汇贷款高速增长.截至2003年3月底,我区各外汇指定银行发放外汇贷款已达19782万美元,比去年同期增加了14716万美元,增幅为290.49%.从今年外汇信贷业务的发展情况看主要体现以下几个方面的特点:(1)外汇信贷已由存差变为贷差.2000年至2001年萧山区外汇存贷款业务,分别为存差9092万美元和9143万美元,两年存差变化不大,而目前为贷差4487万美元;(2)外汇存贷比例较高.目前萧山区外汇存贷比为129.34%;(3)辖区各外汇指定银行外汇信贷业务发展不平衡.     

湖南外汇贷款快增调查

今年以来,我国人民币资金市场供应明显受抑,上半年人民币投放比去年末下降1．98个百分点。据央行公布数据显示,二季度末,全国金融机构外汇贷款余额2753亿美元,同比增长48．65％。而同期湖南外汇贷款余额增幅高出全国近200个百分点,增速迅猛。为深入了解外汇贷款快增原因,笔者对湖南辖内银行发放和企业使用外汇贷款的动因和供需现状进行了调研分析。     

湖南外汇贷款快增调查

今年以来,我国人民币资金市场供应明显受抑,上半年人民币投放比去年末下降1．98个百分点。据央行公布数据显示,二季度末,全国金融机构外汇贷款余额2753亿美元,同比增长48．65％。而同期湖南外汇贷款余额增幅高出全国近200个百分点,增速迅猛。为深入了解外汇贷款快增原因,笔者对湖南辖内银行发放和企业使用外汇贷款的动因和供需现状进行了调研分析。     

2004年4月金融运行述评

4月份金融运行健康平稳，主要特点为，货币供应量和各项货款的增长水平依然较高，金融机构新增人民各项贷款同比增加较多，中长期贷款和外汇贷款增长较快，金融机构人民币各项存款省增，储蓄存款出现分浪迹象，货币市场利率上升。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

金融企业员工考核系统的设计

一、概述 为配合公司人事考核制度的贯彻执行,保证该制度执行过程中各项工作能够长期、高效、准确地完成,我们开发了公司员工考核系统,实现了人事考核工作中员工投票、考核统计、考核信息分析、报表生成等功能,减少了人事部门人员的手工操作,提高了考核工作的自动化程度.