对计算企业经营活动现金流量的一点思考——从基本会计等式出发

本文旨在通过对基本会计等式的运用,揭示用间接法将净收益调节为经营活动现金流量的内在逻辑性。先对基本会计等式进行逐步的分析,推导出现金流量的计算步骤。在这一过程中,可以清楚的反映出会计报表之间的明晰性。     

会计盈余对企业价值增值的重要性

实务界中广为流传“现金为王”的说法,认为现金可以更好地评估企业的绩效,国际会计准则委员会却将权责发生制下的会计盈余优于现金流量作为其基本假设。对于这一相悖的观点,笔者进行了系统分析并认为会计盈余比现金流量更有效地反映出经营周期中企业的价值增值过程。但对于有些经营活动而言,会计盈余也会对真实的价值实现产生较大偏离,所以需要通过使用其他信息进行财务分析和估值。     

上市公司会计收益与现金流量相关性的分行业分析

本文对国内外样本上市公司会计账面收益与经营活动现金流量之间的相关性以及行业之间的差异进行了研究.结果发现,总体上国内外样本公司创造经营现金流量的能力强于创造会计收益的能力.从行业来看,制造业和电力、煤及水的供应业等两个行业会计收益与经营活动现金流量存在线性相关关系,其他六个行业均不存在线性相关关系.说明大多数行业的会计收益与经营现金流量不同步,会计收益指标难以反映企业现金流量的变化.     

利用现金流量分析企业的运营状况

一、现金流量分析的定义、内容及含义1.现金流量信息的作用及其重要性现金流量就是指企业按现金收付制所反映的在一定会计期间,通过一定经济活动,产生的现金流入即收入现金,现金流出即支出现金情况的总称。现金流量信息是通过编制现金流量表,以现     

会计盈余、现金流量与企业成长性研究——来自高成长性上市公司的证据

本文以高成长性上市公司为研究对象,考察了2004~2008年期间会计盈余和现金流量对企业成长性的解释力。研究结果表明,会计盈余和现金流量对企业成长性具有解释力,且会计盈余与现金流量之间具有增量解释力;现金流量的信息含量明显高于会计盈余;会计盈余与现金流量的组合对企业成长性的解释力最强。     

盈余管理对市场有效性的影响

本文先对市场有效性和盈余管理的基本理论作出阐述,后针对盈余管理对市场有效性造成的影响进行说明,并通过引用已有的实证分析,说明我国上市公司披露的会计盈余和现金流量都具有价值相关性,且现金流量的价值相关性低于会计盈余的加之相关性.这意味着企业可以通过过度的盈余管理可在短期内提高股价,这对金融市场的有效性造成不良影响,侵害了投资者的利益.本文最后提出了对合理监控盈余管理的建议.     

关于完善杜邦财务分析体系的思考

本文从杜邦财务分析体系的基本特点出发 ,通过对现金流量指标和会计利润指标的论述 ,指出杜邦体系由于缺乏现金流量指标而不能真实反映企业经营业绩的缺陷 ,并结合能够反映企业盈利质量和实际偿债能力的现金流量指标对其提出改进意见     

现金流量分析在公司理财中的应用

笔者认为:会计利润仅仅是一个账面数据,易受人为因素的干扰与操纵.而现金流量则表现为企业实实在在的现金流入与流出,从而体现出客观性.在现代理财环境下,关注现金流量应该成为公司经理人关注经营运行的重点.     

现金流量会计的财务报表模式转型

本文在对现金流量会计进行基本知识介绍之后,为向读者全面传递现金流量会计财务报表模式的基本特征,笔者参照现金流量会计财务报表的初步建构方法,运用实例进行传统历史成本会计模式向现金流量制模式的转换,并对转换之后的报表进行详细的信息分析。     

现金流量会计的财务报表模式转型

本文在对现金流量会计进行基本知识介绍之后，为向读者全面传递现金流量会计财务报表模式的基本特征，笔者参照现金流量会计财务报表的初步建构方法，运用实例进行传统历史成本会计模式向现金流量制模式的转换，并对转换之后的报表进行详细的信息分析。     

Indirect inference with time series observed with error

We propose the indirect inference estimator as a consistent method to estimate the parameters of a structural model when the observed series are contaminated by measurement error by considering the noise as a structural feature. We show that the indirect inference estimates are asymptotically biased if the error is neglected. When the condition for identification is satisfied, the structural and measurement error parameters can be consistently estimated. The issues of identification and misspecification of measurement error are discussed in detail. We illustrate the reliability of this procedure in the estimation of stochastic volatility models based on realized volatility measures contaminated by microstructure noise.     

Multiple comparisons with the best,with economic applications

In this paper we discuss a statistical method called multiple comparisons with the best, or MCB. Suppose that we have N populations, and population i has parameter value θ_i. Let $\theta _{(N)}={\rm max}_{i=1,\ldots ,N}\theta _{i}$\nopagenumbers\end , the parameter value for the ‘best’ population. Then MCB constructs joint confidence intervals for the differences $[\theta _{(N)}‐\theta _{1},\theta _{(N)}‐\theta _{2},\ldots ,\theta _{(N)}‐\theta _{N}]$\nopagenumbers\end . It is not assumed that it is known which population is best, and part of the problem is to say whether any population is so identified, at the given confidence level. This paper is meant to introduce MCB to economists. We discuss possible uses of MCB in economics. The application that we treat in most detail is the construction of confidence intervals for inefficiency measures from stochastic frontier models with panel data. We also consider an application to the analysis of labour market wage gaps. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting with news sentiment: Evidence with UK newspapers

We investigate the performance of newspapers for forecasting inflation, output and unemployment in the United Kingdom. We concentrate on whether the economic policy content reported in popular printed media can improve on existing point forecasts. We find no evidence supporting improved nowcasts or short-term forecasts for inflation. The sentiment inferred from printed media, can however be useful for forecasting unemployment and output. Considerable improvements are also noted when using individual newspapers and keyword based indices.     

Spanning with indexes

This paper presents several approximation theorems of a general contingent claim in terms of index options. We demonstrate that any contingent claim on the primitive securities in an infinite state economy can be approximated arbitrarily close by a portfolio of index options. In addition, these index options are associated with the same payout function, which belongs to a large and explicit class of one-variable measurable functions. I also characterize the layer structure of a general contingent claim.     

Contests with investment

Perfectly discriminating contests (all pay auctions) are widely used as a model of situations where individuals devote resources to win some prize. In reality such contests are often preceded by investments of the contestants into their ability to fight in the contest. This paper studies a two stage game where in the first stage, players can invest to lower their bid cost in a perfectly discriminating contest, which is played in the second stage. Different assumptions on the timing of investment are studied. With simultaneous investments, equilibria in which players play a pure strategy in the investment stage are asymmetric, exhibit incomplete rent dissipation, and expected effort is reduced relative to the game without investment. There also are symmetric mixed strategy equilibria with complete rent dissipation. With sequential investment, the first mover always invests enough to deter the second mover from investing, and enjoys a first mover advantage. I also look at unobservable investments and endogenous timing of investments. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting with trees

The prevalence of approaches based on gradient boosted trees among the top contestants in the M5 competition is potentially the most eye-catching result. Tree-based methods out-shone other solutions, in particular deep learning-based solutions. The winners in both tracks of the M5 competition heavily relied on them. This prevalence is even more remarkable given the dominance of other methods in the literature and the M4 competition. This article tries to explain why tree-based methods were so widely used in the M5 competition. We see possibilities for future improvements of tree-based models and then distill some learnings for other approaches, including but not limited to neural networks.     

Coping with Autonomy

Abstract

The question examined in this article is how decentralization of power and responsibilities in public administration affects the interaction between bureaucrats and politicians. Three factors were identified as potential predictors: executive authority; the nature of administrative decision making; and the nature of the relationship between bureaucrats and union officials. Data were collected through a survey administered to ninety-eight senior bureaucrats at the county level in Norway. Correlation and hierarchical regression analyses revealed that the character of the relationship between bureaucrats and union officials had the greatest impact on the interaction between bureaucrats and politicians. The more trustful the relationship, the less the interaction, while the stronger the dependency of bureaucrats on unions, the more intensive the interaction. Decision making that involves negotiations increased interaction, as did the bureaucrats' perception of themselves as clearly superior to their staff – as opposed to a perception of themselves as being in an advisory position.