More on stochastic index numbers

There are three major approaches used to estimate index numbers. The first is Fisher's test approach whereby indexes are judged on their ability to satisfy certain criteria. The economic theory of index numbers is the second approach and this deals with their foundations in utility theory. The third approach is a less well-known methodology, but one which is now attracting considerable attention, the stochastic approach which is a new way of viewing index numbers in which uncertainty and statistical ideas play a central role. While providing a point estimate for the index number like the other two approaches, the stochastic approach additionally provides the SE of the point estimate. This article enhances understanding of stochastic index numbers by showing that they are formally equivalent to the familiar optimal combination of forecasts with the individual prices playing the role of n forecasts of the overall rate of inflation. This leads to new analytical results on the impact of adding additional information within the stochastic approach framework. We provide two concrete examples of the sources of such additional information: (i) the quantity theory of money; and (ii) the use of quantity data in addition to price data. We also illustrate some of these theoretical results using real data.     

Data literacy in economic development

In economic development and other economics electives, students regularly encounter economic measures of absolute and relative deprivation, from poverty measures like the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke index to measures of distribution like the Gini index. By “doing economics,” students practice applying economic measurement to real-world data and develop more general data literacy. The author proposes a series of exercises starting with stylized 10-household economies, proceeding to nationally representative cross-sectional surveys using MS Excel or Google Spreadsheets, and culminating in students applying their acquired data literacy to a team project. The data sources are easily tailored to alternative household surveys in low- and middle-income countries that include the required variables. Students learn data literacy through recognizing the properties of rectangular data, visualizing data appropriately, and creating aggregate economic measures.     

Decomposition of inequality measures and a comparative analysis

The main objectives of the paper are to decompose Atkinson's measure into within-group and between-group inequality and to compare it with decompositions of inequality measures, like the Gini coefficient, variance of logarithms, Theil's entropy index and the square of the coefficient of variation. Atkinson's inequality index is given an interpretation of mean order β and then it is decomposed for population subgroups. Various other measures are considered for decompositions and a variety of decomposition schemes for Gini coefficient and other measures in the literature is reviewed and commented upon. Empirical analysis using U.S.A. and U.K. data are performed on the basis of income distribution data classified by family size. For various decomposition schemes, contribution to between size-group and within size-group inequalities are compared in percentage terms. Comparisons are also made over time for the years 1964 and 1974 both for U.S.A. and U.K. and the result indicates that within size-group income inequality has declined while between size group and total income inequality shows an increase. Three important properties of Atkinson's inequality index are proved in the appendix.     

Trade restrictiveness indices in the presence of externalities: An application to non‐tariff measures

We extend the trade restrictiveness index approach to the case of market imperfections and domestic regulations addressing them. We focus on standard‐like non‐tariff measures (NTMs) affecting cost of production and potentially enhancing demand by reducing negative externalities. We apply the framework to the database of Kee et al. ( 2009 ) and derive ad valorem equivalents (AVEs) for technical measures. About 39% of the product lines affected by NTMs exhibit negative AVEs, indicating a net trade‐facilitating effect of these measures. Accounting for these effects significantly reduces previous measures of countries’ trade policy restrictiveness obtained while constraining these NTMs to be trade‐reducing.     

A MEASURE OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN OUTPUT

This article proposes a method of characterizing the growth process using two parameters, a production index measuring growth, and a structural change index measuring the changes in the composition of output. It discusses the properties of the structural change index that is developed, including its relation to the bias in growth rates measured by conventional index numbers. It then applies the measure to an examination of Yugoslav industry for the period 1952–71.     

Property rights revisited

Over the last 20 years, a large number of papers have tried to quantify the effect of property rights on a wide range of variables like growth, trade and to a lesser extent, inequality. However, these studies have been inherently limited by measures of the security of property rights that are currently available. These suffer from any of a number of shortcomings, ranging from a lack of availability, objectivity, or the fact that they measure a broader concept like the rule of law. This paper tries to address this gap by proposing a new index of property rights. Specifically, we use a state-space model to combine all available indicators tracking the security of property rights into an index that covers 191 countries over the period 1994–2014. We compare it to the existing indicators by revisiting the link between inequality, democracy and property rights, using a panel threshold regression model with fixed-effects. Depending on the measure of property rights that is used, there can be considerable differences in the size, significance and even the sign of the estimated parameters. Specifically, in contrast with existing measures, we find that a strengthening of the security of property rights reduces inequality in highly democratic countries only via the government's redistribution channel.     

Computer Price Indices and International Growth and Productivity Comparisons

Methodologies to derive price indices for information and communication technology (ICT) products vary between national statistical offices. This may lead to significant differences in measured price changes for these products and there has been concern about the international comparability of volume growth rates of GDP between several OECD countries. This article discusses the possible consequences for measures of economic growth of replacing one set of price indices by another one in the framework of national accounts. It is argued that the issue of ICT deflators cannot be dealt with in isolation and several other factors have to be taken into account, in particular whether ICT products are final or intermediate products, whether they are imported or domestically produced and whether national accounts are set up with fixed or chain weighted index numbers. Overall, results point to modest effects at the aggregate GDP level but may be more significant when it comes to component measures such as volume growth of investment, or of output in a particular industry.     

Marginal Intraindustry Trade and Labor Adjustment

In the context of Ethier's model of the division of labor, this paper accomplishes three tasks. First, it complements existing literature on the algebraic properties of marginal intraindustry trade (MIIT) measures by embedding one of these measures in a general equilbrium model. Consistent with the existing literature, it is found that change in the Grubel–Lloyd index provides systematically different economic information from change in the MIIT index. Second, it examines the connection between intraindustry trade and intra- industry adjustment. Here it is found that the informal assumption that intraindustry trade generates only intraindustry adjustment cannot be sustained. That is, intraindustry trade will generally induce interindustry adjustment. Finally, because intraindustry trade generates interindustry adjustment, increased intraindustry trade will generally induce long-run changes in relative factor prices. This suggests, given the prominence of intraindustry trade in OECD countries, that there may be problems with inference on the link between rade and wages undertaken in a strict Heckscher–Ohlin framework.     

Detecting money laundering using filtering techniques: a multiple‐criteria index

Money laundering is a dynamic activity attempting to circumvent anti‐money laundering (AML) actions. We propose a money‐laundering detection approach encompassing three separate detection measures applied simultaneously, providing a consolidated index to minimize circumvention. The index incorporates three detection measures: (1) deviations in trading volume and frequency; (2) unusual payments to or receipts from an atypical trade partner; and (3) Benford’s Law, based on the number of times a specific digit occurs in a particular position in numbers to detect financial fraud. Finally, we design a numerical test that any reasonable detection approach should satisfy. Our results successfully discover possible fraud planted in the simulated data.     

On the interpretation of ‘green’ NNP measures as cost-benefit rules

In this paper we consider the possibility of using green welfare change measures as the basis for cost-benefit analysis of new projects. Such green welfare change measures look very similar to what one would expect a cost-benefit analysis of the entire economy to look like. It is shown that although green welfare measures contain the shadow prices needed in the evaluation of a small new project, one must account for changes in these prices.We are grateful to two referees for helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper     

Control rights, pyramids, and the measurement of ownership concentration

The recent corporate governance literature has emphasised the distinction between control and cash-flow rights but has disregarded measurement issues. Control rights may be measured by immediate shareholder votes, the voting rights as traced through ownership chains, or voting power indices that may or may not trace ownership through chains. We compare the ability of various measures to identify the effects of ownership concentration on share valuation using a German panel data set. The widely used weakest-link principle does not perform well in this comparison. Furthermore, measures that trace control through ownership chains do not outperform those that rely on immediate ownership, thus questioning the role of pyramids in the separation of control and cash-flow rights. The paper emphasises that there is a distinction between these two aspects of ownership even without pyramids or preferred stock, identification of which requires measures that, like the Shapley–Shubik index, do not simply equate control rights with voting rights.     

Volatility and stock price indexes

The stochastic approach to index numbers has been successfully applied to the estimation of inflation, the world interest rate and international competitiveness.?One distinct advantage of this approach is that it provides the whole distribution of the index, not simply one value. In this article, we extend the stochastic approach to the estimation of a stock market index. We demonstrate how this approach can be used to identify ‘redundant stocks’ that do not contribute significantly to the overall index.?For index tracking purposes, these stocks can be safely excluded.     

Financial Liberalization and Allocation of Capital: Dark Side of the Moon

Although it is well established that financial liberalization leads to a positive ‘quantity effect’ with higher levels of investment, it remains uncertain whether it also improves the efficacy with which such investment funds are allocated. This paper contributes to this sparely researched aspect of liberalization (‘quality effect’) by carefully examining if the financial reforms in India have led to an improvement in the allocation of resources. Since one of the premises of better allocation is that funds are channelled to firms with higher marginal returns to capital (measured by Tobin’s Q), we propose three unique measures to track the efficiency of resource allocation: (a) dispersion-based measures; (b) the allocative efficiency index; and (c) the relative value of allocation. Contrary to the prevalent assumption that financial liberalization leads to higher capital allocation efficiency, this study’s findings could not establish a direct correlation between the opening up of markets and higher allocation efficiency, except for the latter part of the reform period. Further, this paper draws attention to the greater misallocation of funds in the post-reform period, as the increase in funds availability leads to excess capacity creation in some industries without consideration of the need for concurrent return or demand. The authors of this paper recommend that any financial liberalization needs to be accompanied by the setting up of institutions for corporate control, particularly in an emerging market like India.

     

Stochastic Cooperative Games: Superadditivity, Convexity, and Certainty Equivalents

This paper extends the notions of superadditivity and convexity to stochastic cooperative games. It is shown that convex games are superadditive and have nonempty cores, and that these results also hold in the context of NTU games. Furthermore, a subclass of stochastic cooperative games to which one can associate a deterministic cooperative game is considered. It is shown that such a stochastic cooperative game satisfies properties like nonemptiness of the core, superadditivity, and convexity if and only if the corresponding deterministic game satisfies these properties.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Number: C71.     

A First Assessment of Some Measures of Core Inflation for the Euro Area

Abstract. Core inflation plays an important role in the deliberations of monetary policy-makers. In this paper we evaluate a number of measures of core inflation constructed using euro-area data. In addition to the traditional exclusion-type core measures, we examine two newer ones, documenting their properties and evaluating their performance in terms of their ability to track underlying or trend inflation in real time. We focus on core measures derived from the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as the European Central Bank has chosen to define its mandate for price stability in terms of this index, and because this is the only index of consumer prices that is compiled in a comparable manner across all members of the European Union. We document significant excess kurtosis in the cross-section distribution of price changes in the euro area, and show that several categories of prices are more volatile than those typically excluded from traditional measures of core inflation. Contrary to what one might expect, traditional measures of core inflation are not significantly less volatile than headline measures. We document the superior performance of alternative measures of core inflation in tracking trend inflation on average, but show that none of the various measures of core gave significant advance warning of the pickup in trend inflation at the beginning of 1999.     

Political Measures for Strategic Environmental Policy with External Effects

This paper investigates an environmental policy designed to reduce the emission of pollutants under uncertainty, with the agent problem as an optimal stopping problem. We first analyze the two cases in which there are one agent and two competing agents by following Ohyama and Tsujimura (2005). When we consider a model of strategic agents, we need to analyze the external economic effect that is peculiar to an agent’s environmental policy implementation. Then, to improve and resolve these external effects, we examine three alternative political measures, comprising an environmental subsidy, an environmental tax and an emission trading system. The results of the analysis indicate that the environmental subsidy and environmental tax promote environmental policy. However, they do not create an incentive to be the leader. On the other hand, an emissions trading system not only promotes environmental policy but also creates an incentive for leadership.This paper was previously circulated under the title “Political Measures for Strategic Environmental Policy with Induced Effects”. The authors would like to thank Masaaki Kijima for helpful comments. The authors would also like to thank Alistair Munro and two anonymous referees providing detailed comments and suggestions. This research was partially supported by Daiwa Securities Group Inc. The second-named author was partially supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B) (2), 16310118.     

城镇化过程中的制约因素与对策研究

城镇化是新农村建设的途径和目标之一,意义特殊而重大.但是,当前在农村城镇化建设过程中存在的一系列问题,妨碍了农村城镇化的进程.主要表现在政府与政策支持力度不够,体制性障碍没有从根本上消除,城镇化所需的基础设施建设滞后,城镇化过程中的质量意识不强等方面.因此,加强政府指导,拓展城镇化资金来源渠道,加快户籍制度改革,加强产业集聚,建立和完善土地流转制度,将农民纳入社会保障体系等,是加快城镇化建设步伐的根本出路与必然路径.     

Party voting discipline and the power of parties, legislators and states

We examine the distribution of decision-making power among the principal actors of a federal legislative system; parties, legislators, and constituencies. We are especially interested in how the balance of power between legislators and constituencies depends on the voting discipline exercised by the parties.We derive power measures that are related to the Banzhaf-Coleman index of decision-making power and illustrate with a simple example. Our power measures are novel because they are based on an explicit representation of party voting discipline as well as the structural properties of the decision-making process, whereas previous analyses concentrate on structurally determined power alone.     

MULTILATERAL INDICES: CONFLICTING APPROACHES?

This short paper focusses on an apparent conflict between two results from different approaches to the problem of finding multilateral index numbers. The impossibility theorem of Van Veelen (2002 ) is an axiomatic result that rules out the existence of a multilateral index that satisfies four modest requirements. This also implies that no bilateral index can consistently be generalized to a multilateral setting. Adopting a revealed preference approach, Dowrick and Quiggin (1997 ) however construct a multilateral extention of Fisher's ideal index, which preserves a range of desirable properties. This note shows what it is that drives the divergence between those two results. It also gives implications for practical use of results from either approach.     

Leading by numbers

We measure to determine where we stand financially or in our quality outcomes. As people see the connection of measures and the success of the company, everything makes more sense. Izzo (2005) writes that profits/net margins are important to an organization and are like oxygen to a person. If we have oxygen, we can focus on the important things in life; if we don't we are preoccupied with gasping for air. Organizations are the same way. With the oxygen of profits, organizations can focus on those things that matter most to the staff and the customer. But when the search for profits becomes obsessive because of greed for excess profits or impending financial doom, everybody loses. Izzo (2005) reminds us that organizations shouldn't exist for only profit, just as people don't exist for only oxygen. Oxygen is merely an enabler for us to do the work of living. Measurement and numbers are the oxygen needed to achieve excellence. As people in organizations use numbers as their servants rather than being slaves to numbers, everyone will succeed. If the use of measurement is seen as punitive, and not a system of serving people to attain that zest for business and a higher mission, we will not achieve the level of excellence our people, patients, and communities deserve.