Demand for broad money and expenditure components in Japan: an empirical study

The main objective of the present study is to examine empirically the long-run relation of broad money demand and its determinants in Japan. In contrast with previous study, the present study considers various components of final expenditure demand as determinants that are final consumption goods, expenditure on investment goods and exports. Using quarterly data over the period 1973Q1–2000Q2, the results of the bounds test [J. Appl. Econ. 16 (2001) 289] indicate a stable long-run relationship between demand of real M2 and its determinants. The empirical results also highlight that different domestic demand components yields different effects on Japanese broad money demand behavior. The estimated unrestricted error-correction model appears to track the data well and the results have important policy implications.     

DEMAND FOR MONEY AND EXPENDITURE COMPONENTS IN SOUTH AFRICA: ASSESSMENT FROM UNRESTRICTED ERROR-CORRECTION MODELS

The main aim of this study is to examine empirically the long‐run relationship of money demand and its determinants in South Africa. In contrast with existing studies on the subject, the present study considers various components of real income as determinants. The disaggregated components are final consumption expenditure, expenditure on investment goods and exports. The other determinants are domestic interest rate, yield on government bonds and the exchange rate. The results confirm that the different components of real income have different impacts on the demand for money in South Africa. The presence of long‐run equilibrium relationships between the demand for real M1, M2 and M3 and their determinants is confirmed based on the results of bounds testing.     

An aggregate import demand function for greece

This study estimates the aggregate import demand function for Greece using annual data for the period 1951–92. There are two methodological novelties in this paper. The authors find that the variables used in the aggregate import demand function are not stationary but are cointegrated. Thus, a long-run equilibrium relationship exists among these variables during the period under study. The price elasticity is found to be close to unity in the long run. The cross-price elasticity is also found to be close to unity. Import demand is found to be highly income elastic in the long run. This implies that with economic growth, ceteris paribus, the trade deficit for Greece is likely to get worse.     

Japanese aggregate import demand function: reassessment from the ‘bounds’ testing approach

This paper aims to ascertain the long-run relationship of Japanese aggregate import demand function over the period 1973–1997. The cointegration test used, bounds test procedure [J. Appl. Econ. 16 (2001) 289] is a recent test that based on the estimation of an unrestricted error-correction model (UECM). In contrary with previous studies [J. Policy Model. 16 (1994) 291; Jpn. World Econ. 13 (2001) 135], the bounds test confirms a long-run equilibrium relationship between quantity of imports, and its determinants namely real income and relative prices term. The estimated long-run income and price elasticities are 0.99 and −0.82, respectively.     

我国大中型企业专利产出及其经济效益的实证分析

运用计量经济学的协整分析和Granger因果检验模型,对我国大中型企业研发投入与专利产出,以及新产品销售收入与专利产出之间的关系进行了计量实证分析,结果显示:企业的研发投入与专利产出、新产品销售收入与专利产出之间均存在长期稳定的动态均衡关系和显著的Granger因果关系,专利产出对研发投入的弹性约为1.89,而新产品销售收入对专利产出的弹性约为0.51。     

Tax Base Elasticities: A Multi-State Analysis of Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics

We examine the relative dynamic responses of state personal tax revenues and sales tax bases to changes in state personal income. Our econometric analysis, which includes separate analyses of long-run and short-run dynamics for each state, permits the estimation of asymmetric short-run responses depending upon the relationship between current and expected tax base growth. Results indicate that the average long-run elasticity for income taxes is more than double that for sales taxes. Most states have asymmetric short-run income elasticities, which are again greater for income taxes than for sales taxes. However, a joint analysis of long- and short-run dynamics reveals that neither tax is universally more volatile. After calculating state-specific income elasticities for both taxes, we employ cross-section regression techniques to explain the variation in elasticities across states. Several policy factors are found to be important, including elements of tax bases and rate structures.     

中印石油消费的动态影响因素比较分析

利用中国与印度1970-2009年的实证数据,运用VAR模型,Johansen协整检验和向量误差修正模型等方法,首次对两国的石油价格、经济增长、人口等因素与石油消费的长期关系及短期动态影响进行了比较分析。结果显示:长期中,石油价格与石油消费的弹性关系,印度表现为负,而在中国为正;经济增长对石油消费的影响,中国大于印度;人口对石油消费的影响,印度大于中国。短期中,印度的经济增长和人口对石油消费的影响更显著,石油价格对两国石油消费的影响程度相似。     

Do Adolescents with Emotional or Behavioral Problems Respond to Cigarette Prices?

Adolescents with mental health problems have much higher rates of smoking than those without such problems. Although a large body of evidence suggests that higher cigarette prices reduce smoking prevalence and the quantity smoked, little is known about the interaction between mental health or behavioral problems and tobacco consumption in the general population or among adolescents. Using a national representative sample of adolescents from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health and employing validated psychiatric measures of emotional distress and behavioral problems, we estimate the price elasticity of cigarette demand for adolescents who have behavioral or emotional problems. The results indicate that these adolescents are at least as responsive to cigarette prices as adolescents with no emotional or behavioral problems.     

Determinants of Malaysian Trade Balance: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach

Abstract

This paper examines the short- and long-run relationships between trade balance, real exchange rates, income and money supply in the case of Malaysia. The inclusion of income and money variables in the study is purposely to examine the monetary and absorption approaches to the balance of payments beside the conventional approach of elasticity, using exchange rates. Using the bound testing approach to cointegration and error correction models, developed within an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework, we investigate whether a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between trade balance and the determinants. Additionally, we adopt an innovation accounting by simulating variance decompositions (VDC) and impulse response functions (IRF) for further inferences. Using this approach, we find evidence of a long-run relationship between trade balance and income and money supply variables but not between trade balance and real exchange rate. The findings also suggest that Marshall–Lerner condition does not hold in the long-run for Malaysia and for policy wise the Malaysian trade balance/balance of payments should be viewed from absorption and monetary approaches.     

Energy consumption of urban households in China

We estimate China urban household energy demand as part of a complete system of consumption demand so that it can be used in economy-wide models. This allows us to derive cross-price elasticities unlike studies which focus on one type of energy. We implement a two-stage approach and explicitly account for electricity, domestic fuels and transportation demand in the first stage and gasoline, coal, LPG and gas demand in the second stage. We find income inelastic demand for electricity and home energy, but the elasticity is higher than estimates in the rich countries. Demand for total transportation is income elastic. The price elasticity for electricity is estimated to be −0.5 and in the range of other estimates for China, and similar to long-run elasticities estimated for the U.S.     

Putting Out Fires: An Examination of the Determinants of State Clean Indoor-Air Laws

Although numerous studies have examined the effect of clean indoor-air laws on tobacco consumption, a handful of other studies have sought to address the demand for smoking restrictions. This paper adds to this body of research by using a random effects Probit procedure that controls for the endogeneity of cigarette consumption and cigarette taxes to estimate the determinants of clean indoor-air laws. By treating cigarette consumption and cigarette taxes as exogenous, we found that taxes complement smoking restrictions. However, when we accounted for endogeneity, the role of cigarette taxes shifted toward being a policy substitute. Results further revealed that the probability of a state adopting a smoking restriction is particularly sensitive to per capita cigarette consumption, political affiliation, metropolitan population, per capita income, and tobacco production.     

福建省经济发展对高等教育规模影响的研究

利用福建省1978-2009年的相关数据,分析了该省经济发展与高等教育规模之间的关系。结果表明,经济发展与高等教育规模之间存在长期均衡关系与短期动态关系,经济发展对高等教育规模发展都具有正向作用,且长期效应大于短期效应。长、短期影响弹性系数分别为0.952 199和0.542 955。滞后2期的经济增长是高等教育的规模的格兰杰原因;滞后4期的高等教育的规模是经济增长的格兰杰原因。     

中国天然气需求量与GDP之间关系的协整分析与误差修正模型研究

本文运用协整和误差修正模型建立中国天然气需求的预测模型,并将中国天然气消费的长期均衡引入到短期预测模型。通过模型结构分析,得出影响天然气需求量波动的长期均衡控制因素(国内生产总值)和短期波动((国内生产总值,以及上一期天然气消费量),并针对我国天然气未来供需严重不平衡的局面,提出一定的建议和对策。     

内蒙古农村信贷与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于1978～2009年内蒙古自治区数据的分析

本文基于1978～2009年内蒙古自治区农村人均贷款和农村人均GDP的数据,首先,分析了改革开放以来二者的变动趋势,发现二者都呈现"缓慢增长———波动增长———快速增长"的变动趋势;其次,运用协整检验证实二者之间存在长期均衡关系;再次,协整检验和误差修正模型结果表明长期和短期内农村人均贷款与农村人均GDP的关系均为正相关,弹性系数分别为1.30%和17.20%,当短期波动偏离长期波动时,误差修正项将以13.09%作用力做反向调整,促使非均衡状态恢复到均衡状态;最后,格兰杰因果关系检验表明内蒙古农村人均GDP产出和农村人均贷款额之间互为因果关系。     

PERSONAL SECTOR MONEY DEMAND IN THE UK

Non-parametric demand analysis is utilised to establish weaklyseparable subsets of monetary assets for the UK personal sectorin the context of a utility function consisting of durable andnon-durable consumption goods, services, leisure, and monetaryassets The admissible collections of assets are then combinedusing Divisia aggregation in order to produce monetary aggregateswhich are consistent with economic aggregation theory We investigatethe money demand properties of the aggregates and find relativelysimple, stable long-run money-demand functions for the UK personalsector with well determined error correction dynamics.     

投资规模、消费水平与经济增长——基于新疆时间序列数据的实证分析

实证分析结果表明，新疆经济增长与投资规模间长期均衡关系为开口向下的抛物线，与消费水平间长期均衡关系为开口向上的抛物线。新疆投资规模驱动的经济增长最高产出水平尚未出现，并且投资规模达到4.64666万亿元时投资对经济增长的驱动效应达到最大值；新疆消费水平导致的经济增长最低产出水平出现在1979年至1980年间，并且消费水平为31.58051亿元时，消费水平对新疆经济增长的驱动效应最低，对GDP的贡献仅占相应年份全部份额的1/5至1/4。新疆投资规模处于对经济增长起正向推动作用的区间，消费水平也处于对经济增长起正向推动作用的区间；但是新疆投资规模和消费水平的进一步提升都存在一定的约束。     

Modelling the demand for broad money in the United States

The demand for money function occupies a central role in most theories of aggregate economic activity, especially in the formulation and execution of effective monetary policy. In this paper, estimates of the short- and long-run demand for broad money in the United States are obtained. The empirical evidence suggests that the relationship between the growth of money balances and its economic determinants is more stable than some have argued. Importantly, the out-of-sample forecasts presented here suggest that M2 growth in the 1980s is well predicted by an error-correction model that includes a variable representing the value of time and also uses real consumer spending as the short-run scale variable.     

The Equilibrium Yen–Dollar Rate: 1976–91

This paper presents a definition of the equilibrium exchange rate that is based on a modified version of purchasing power parity (PPP) for traded goods. Employing constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production functions and data from 28 three-digit international standard industrial classification (ISIC) manufacturing industries, the equilibrium Yen-Dollar rate is calculated for the period between 1976 and 1991 (a time in which the Yen appreciated markedly against the Dollar) showing that the actual Yen-Dollar rate closely tracked the equilibrium rate over that time. The results suggest that strong growth in Japanese labor productivity, coupled with Japan's relatively low capital-labor elasticity of sub-stitution, were the main contributors to the Yen's long-run appreciation.     

Modeling Russia’s exchange rate in the long-run

This paper investigates long-run behavior of Russian real effective exchange rate. Due to high dependence on natural resources’ exports and, at the same time, absence of stable domestic policy, unexpected and/or excessive changes in the real exchange rate might negatively affect the Russian economy, causing large welfare costs. Since the determinants as well the causal links to different fundamental determinants are not straightforward, we employ the Johansen cointegration framework in order to determine factors that drive real exchanges rate in the long run. Compared to previous research on the Russian exchange rate, we expand the period of observations and construct potential determinants in a not traditional way, but as differences between domestic and foreign variables. This proceeding might also be relevant for researches, dedicated to another countries’ exchange rates.     

How Elastic is the Demand for Labour in Belgian Enterprises?Results from Firm Level Accounts Data, 1987–1994

This paper analyzes wage elasticities using a panel dataset of 2800 large Belgian firms over the period 1987–1994. We explore various functional forms and find that the short-run wage elasticity varies between –0.37 and –0.65, while the long-run elasticity is robustly estimated to be larger than 1 in absolute value. These results are striking for they are much higher than those reported in previous studies using macroeconomic time-series data. This suggests that labour costs are more important in determining the demand for labour than initially was believed.