A MODEL OF NEW ZEALAND APPLE SUPPLY RESPONSE TO TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE*

A supply response model for New Zealand apples is specified and equations for new plantings, removals, yields and adoption of an innovation are estimated. The model expands on perennial crop models previously estimated by incorporating the time pattern of adoption of a planting innovation and formulation of a measure of yield expectations given technological change.     

NEW ZEALAND BEEF AND SHEEP SUPPLY RELATIONSHIPS

The primary purposes of this study are to measure major relationships describing the responses of different components of sheep and beef farming capital stock in New Zealand to changes in economic conditions, and to investigate the way in which this capital stock has changed over time. These objectives are pursued by attempting to specify an econometric model that recognises joint production between sheep and beef cattle and also takes account of joint firm/household decision making. Aggregate New Zealand data for the period 1952/53 to 1973/74 are fitted to the model using Full Information Maximum Likelihood estimation.     

THE WOOL BOARD'S SECOND REPORT ON MARKETING: A REVIEW ARTICLE

The second report on Wool Marketing by the Australian Wool Board is critically appraised. Particular attention is given to the proposals for elimination of small lots, price averaging and supply management. The presumption that price stabilization is good and the conclusion that private buying is bad are also discussed in detail.     

A MODEL OF THE NEW ZEALAND SHEEP INDUSTRY*

The paper presents a model of the New Zealand Sheep Industry which predicts animal numbers in various sex/age categories. The explanatory variables used are the prices of the end products of the industry and time, to represent technological change. Prices are found to have a significant, though delayed, effect on farmers' stock decisions. Furthermore, the significance of time demonstrates improvements in some forms of animal husbandry. The relative failure of the model's latest predictions emphasizes the importance of irrational optimism in the industry.     

A NEW STUDY OF UNITED KINGDOM CEREAL SUPPLY

This paper reports on an analysis designed to build and empirically test a model to explain the movements of U.K. cereal acreages in the post-1954 period. It is acknowledged that the results presented are a preliminary step in obtaining a fully acceptable model of U.K. cereal supply. Nevertheless, they do display a number of interesting and important features, especially with respect to the technical interactions between different cereals.     

SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS IN THE NEW ZEALAND FARM SECTOR

The changing pattern of funds sources and uses in the New Zealand farm sector, is summarized, using a flow of funds model. Technical problems of data and definition are discussed. The close relationship between cash farm income and investment is observed, and some indication is given of the extent of aggregate cash withdrawals (drawings) from the sector. The increasing reliance of agriculture on external sources of finance is also apparent.     

AN EXAMINATION OF THE TAX SUBSIDIES TO THE DAIRY SECTORS IN CANADA,GERMANY NEW ZEALAND AND THE UNITED STATES

Subsidies to agricultural producers through domestic tax and social programme policies are generally not included in producer subsidy equivalent (PSE) measures. This study examines the price induced distortions of domestic tax policy and social programmes on dairy trade between Canada, New Zealand, Germany, and the United States. The degree of tax subsidisation and the price subsidies needed to offset the tax and social programme advantages enjoyed by each country are estimated using a simulation model. Study findings suggest that current German taxation policy provides a substantial subsidy to dairy producers. Canadian and US farmers also have some trade advantages because of tax policy and social programmes.     

THE POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF POSSIBLE NEW ZEALAND WHEAT PRICING SCHEMES*

An empirical policy simulation analysis that was performed prior to the adoption of the revised N.Z. wheat pricing arrangements is reported. The analysis was particularly timely as it coincided with, and made an input to, discussions between the various parties attempting to derive an improved wheat pricing scheme. The implications of making N.Z. farm-gate wheat pricing more responsive to world market prices were assessed using a simulation model to distill information on the impact of alternative pricing schemes on those criteria thought to be of interest to policymakers. The results also indicated how the recently announced new scheme would have performed. This information aided public decision making, particularly in clarifying some of the trade-offs that are necessary in choosing a pricing scheme.     

OPTIMIZING THE TRANSFER OF TAX EXEMPTIONS IN NEW ZEALAND FARM DEVELOPMENT*

Farmers and their advisers frequently face complex problems involving the scheduling of claims for tax exemptions. A case in point is the New Zealand tax law allowing farmers to transfer exemptions associated with development expenditure up to specified time horizons. This paper examines procedures for solving this, and similar, problems. Linear programming could be used, but an alternative algorithm is proposed for farm advisers whose access to computing facilities is limited. The latter procedure is intended for use with forecast budgeting in farm development planning.     

TOWARD AN OPTIMAL POLICY OF SUPPLY CONTROL AND INCOME IMPROVEMENT*

This analysis provides a theoretical framework for a tax policy to reduce farm output, stabilize prices, and improve farm income. It is a policy that does not require production or marketing quotas, support prices, government subsidies, or commodity storage. It is proposed as an optimal supply-restraining, income-improving policy in terms of administrative economy and absence of treasury payments. The mechanism could be applied by the farmer's own marketing board or by government. It leaves freedom of decision (except for the payment of the tax that later increases income) to farmers. It eliminates restraints on intraregional efficiency and intercommodity barriers inherent in traditional supply control programs such as the administration of marketing quotas. The revenues from the tax collection, after expenses were paid, could be used in various ways to improve welfare and income distribution within the sector, thus improving the level of living of all farmers individually and as a group Cette analyse foumil une structure théorique d“un système ?impôts destinéà ralentir la production agricole, à en stabiliser le prix et à augmenter son revenu. C'est un système qui n'exige ni quotité (soit de production, soil de marché), ni support de prix, ni subvention fédérate, ni entrepôt de surproduction. On propose ce système comme le meilleur moyen de réaliser les buts ci-dessus mentionés, en dépit des économies administrates et du manque de subvention du Ministère des Finances. Ce procédé peut être mis en pratique, soit par le gouvernement, soit par la commission mercantile de ?exploitani agricole même, à qui reste seul la liberté de décision (sauf quand il s'agil du paiement de ?impôt qui sen plus lard à?ac-croissement des revenus.) Ce sont des restrictions à la compétence intrarégionale qui sont éliminées ainsi que des obstacles entre produils de consommation: obstacles particuliers aux plans traditionnels de contrôle de production, lets que ?institution de quotités de marché. Les revenus des impôts, les dépenses réglées, peuvent s'utiliser de plusieurs moyens à contribuer au bien-être général et à accroitre les revenus dans la région mème, améliorant, de cette façon, la condition du fermier: celle de ?individu ainsi que la condition collective du groupe     

AGRICULTURAL REFORMS IN CHILE AND NEW ZEALAND: A REVIEW*

Chile and New Zealand are both small countries for which agricultural exports are important: both undertook comprehensive economic reforms during the 1970s and 1980s respectively. Comparison of the experiences shows that macroeconomic policy, above all the resulting movements in the real exchange rate and in interest rates, has a critical impact on agriculture. In both cases, rolling back the state has encouraged private responses. In Chile the challenges ahead lie in continuing productivity improvements, and in raising the welfare of smallholders in marginal areas. Six years after the initiation of reforms, New Zealand agriculture shows a healthy recovery. Once committed to economy-wide reforms – stabilisation, adjustment, and trade liberalisation – and companion reforms of institutions, how do governments best proceed? With what reforms and in what mix, sequence, strength, and speed? For agriculture, specifically, this paper takes a close look at which reforms, or aspects of their implementation, can accelerate or slow down private investment and aggregate supply response.     

AN EVALUATION OF PRICING PERFORMANCE OF THE CANADIAN FEED GRAINS POLICY

Models, both theoretical and econometric, were developed to examine the pricing performance of the Canadian feed grains policy. An 18 equation econometric model, comprising three levels; farm, Canadian Wheat Board and domestic open market, provided the means to measure intermarket price relationships empirically. The model was further simulated for two policy situations, changes in domestic barley stocks and exports. The analytical results support the theoretical contention that the structure of the feed grains market (policy) does not lead to price efficiency. Results showed that performance was dependent upon Canadian Wheat Board export policy and producer marketing decisions which in turn are influenced by the feed grains policy and associated marketing structure. Des modèles théoriques et des modèles économétriques ont été développés avec le but d'examiner le fonctionnement, à l'ègard des prix, de la politique des grains alimentaires au Canada. Un modéle économetrique àéquations, comprenant trois niveaux; la ferme, La Commission Canadienne du Blé, et le marché libre domestique; a produit le moyen de mesurer empiriquement les rapports entre les cours de marche. Le modèle a ètè simulé, en addition, pour examiner deux situations politiques, les changements dans les stocks domestiques et dans les expoetations de l'orge. Les résultats analytiques donnent appui à l'hypothèse théorique que la structure du marché des grains alimentaires (la politique) ne mène pas à l'efficacité de la détermination des prix. Les résultats ont montré que le fonctionnement dépendait de la politique d'exportation de la Commission Canadienne du Blé et des décisions marchandes des producteurs qui, à leur tour, sont influencées par la politique des grains alimentaires et par la structure marchande y associée.     

A SYNTHETIC MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL SUPPLY

Over the past twenty-five years there have been important theoretical developments in the supply literature. Each has examined the likely impact on supply of introducing doses of realism into the standard neoclassical model. These have been administered for the most part independently, with the consequence that, though each has illuminated a single aspect of supply, no overall perspective has emerged. This essay seeks to provide a coherent and comprehensive framework of analysis and develops an estimatable model of supply within this framework.