REAL‐TIME FORECASTING OF INFLATION AND OUTPUT GROWTH WITH AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS IN THE PRESENCE OF DATA REVISIONS

We examine how the accuracy of real‐time forecasts from models that include autoregressive terms can be improved by estimating the models on ‘lightly revised’ data instead of using data from the latest‐available vintage. The benefits of estimating autoregressive models on lightly revised data are related to the nature of the data revision process and the underlying process for the true values. Empirically, we find improvements in root mean square forecasting error of 2–4% when forecasting output growth and inflation with univariate models, and of 8% with multivariate models. We show that multiple‐vintage models, which explicitly model data revisions, require large estimation samples to deliver competitive forecasts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

THE ECONOMIC EFFECT OF HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS FOR THE U.K., GERMANY AND JAPAN

This paper attempts to estimate the marginal productivity of highway construction in the U.K., Germany and Japan during the 15 years following the first oil crisis. In addition, highway-improvement policy in Japan is evaluated using a simple macro-economic regression model. The following conclusions were obtained: in every country the marginal productivity of highway construction decreased over the period 1975-85, with the decrease most pronounced in Japan; subsequently, it increased slowly in the U.K. and Germany, with Japan leveling off though still having the highest value among the three countries; the U.K. maintained a high level of highway productivity largely as a result of a high degree of utilization. There is scope in Japan for attaining a higher level (approximately equal to that of the late 1970s) if the extent of highway utilization can be maintained by additional construction. This implies that future highway-construction policy should be of efficiency-seeking nature.     

MEASURING SPILLOVER EFFECTS OF SHOCKS TO THE ALASKA ECONOMY: AN INTER-REGIONAL SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX (IRSAM) MODEL APPROACH

An inter-regional social accounting matrix (IRSAM) model is used to estimate the spillover effects occurring between economies of two US regions – (i) Alaska, which depends heavily on imports of commodities and factors of production from outside the region, and (ii) the rest of the US (RoUS). Multiplier decomposition is used to calculate intra-regional multipliers and spillover effects between the two regions. Results show that a significant percentage (46.3–70.8%) of the total secondary impacts of a shock to Alaskan industries leaks out of Alaska and flows to the RoUS. An analysis of household multipliers indicates that over 60% of the total secondary effects of an increase in Alaska household income accrues to the RoUS households. Policymakers are concerned with identifying the magnitude, nature, and geographic distribution of economic impacts from the policies they implement. The IRSAM model provides the framework for a better understanding of the intra-regional and spillover effects of policies.     

THE EFFECTS OF FORMALIZATION ON DEPARTMENTS OF A MULTI-HOSPITAL SYSTEM*

This study tests five propositions concerning the relationships between formalization, technological complexity and organizational performance. Propositions are based on Hage's axiomatic theory, but reinterpreted in terms of Lawrence and Dyer's readaptation hypothesis. Data were collected by questionnaire from 348 respondents from 92 units of an eight-member government-operated multi-hospital system. Measures were of formalization, complexity, co-ordination, climate for change, quality of care and morale. In general, more support was found for the readaptation hypothesis than for the traditional hypotheses of the Hage theory. In nursing units, formalization tended to have small, negative effects, and management decision-making should probably aim to loosen up structures. In non-nursing (clinical services) units, effects were greater and largely positive, suggesting the need for tightening up structures in order to promote readaptation.     

FROM TRANSACTION COST TO TRANSACTIONAL VALUE ANALYSIS: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE STUDY OF INTERORGANIZATIONAL STRATEGIES*

This article examines interorganizational strategies from a transactional value, rather than transaction cost, perspective. It argues that the transaction cost perspective has at least two major limitations when used to analyse interorganizational strategies: (1) a single-party, cost minimization emphasis that neglects the interdependence between exchange partners in the pursuit of joint value, and (2) an over-emphasis on the structural features of interorganizational exchange that neglects important process issues. We propose instead a transactional value framework for analysing interorganizational strategies that addresses (1) joint value maximization, and (2) the processes by which exchange partners create and claim value. We discusses the implications of the present approach for the study of interorganizational strategies and for the transaction cost perspective itself.     

THE FAILURE OF THE POLL TAX AND CLASSICAL LIBERAL POLITICAL ECONOMY: LESSONS FOR THE FUTURE

The failure of the Poll Tax has been claimed to be an indictment of the principles of classical liberal political economy that it was intended to apply to local government finance. This article argues that, on the contrary, the failure of the Poll Tax was entirely predictable from the perspective of classical liberal political economy, and, in particular, public choice economics, because it involved a politically impossible reassignment of the local tax burden, presented local electors with an insurmountable collective action problem and ignored the 'vote motive' underlying the actions of national politicians held accountable for the new tax. Finally, the article proposes some lessons for the future of local government reform from the experience of the Poll Tax.