企业转型升级与信贷征信拓展北大核心

我国经济进入新常态,许多企业也在积极寻求科技转型升级,这对以抵押、担保为核心的传统信贷模式提出了新挑战。本文剖析了工商银行山东省定陶县支行以一企业转型升级后的预期现金流作为抵押发放贷款的案例,发现商业银行存在优化和拓展自身信贷征信视野和支持企业科技转型的基本动力。     

产业积聚效应下的集团客户信用风险表征及识别

产业振兴规划对于中国产业技术升级改造、结构调整等将产生深远的影响.对此,商业银行应积极调整信贷结构,培育新的业务增长点,适应当前产业结构调整.同时也对于商业银行集团客户信用风险识别和控制能力提出了挑战.本文结合商业银行的信贷实践,分析了商业银行集团授信客户的信用风险表征,提出了具体的风险识别方法.     

我国商业银行信贷集中问题分析

近年来,商业银行信贷集中问题日益突出,如何正确认识并采取有效的策略是当前亟待探讨的课题.本文从信贷集中问题的具体表现入手,通过分析信贷集中产生的原因,揭示信贷集中带来的影响,提出了相应的解决信贷集中问题的对策建议.     

我国商业银行信贷业务的机制体制创新研究

以信贷资产和业务为主体是当前我国商业银行经营发展模式的主要特征,信贷营销、风险控制和产品创新关系到商业银行的健康发展.本文在对基层银行调研的基础之上,着重针对商业银行信贷业务中的机制体制创新问题提出几点自己的看法:建立垂直独立的风险控制体制,并将分层次的营销体系与之配套;建立和完善信贷产品的创新机制.     

完善银行信贷资产风险管理的六点建议

商业银行信贷资产,是指以信用方式积聚、在有偿使用和支付利息的条件下分配的货币资金而形成的资金,它是能为商业银行带来未来经济利益的经济资源.信贷业务作为商业银行的核心业务,是影响银行经营质量和业绩的主要因素.对世界银行业危机进行的研究表明,导致银行失败的最常见因素,通常是信贷资产质量不佳.因此,分析和评估商业银行信贷资产的质量,是评价银行风险最重要的部分.     

关于构建商业银行信贷资产风险监控预警体系的探讨

信贷资产的风险监控预警能力是商业银行发展的核心能力之一,在不同的业务发展阶段,风险监控预警也要不断地丰富和完善.本文旨在通过分析当前监控预警工作中面临的新要求,提出构建风险监控预警体系的一些思路.     

我国商业银行中小企业信贷风险评估体系的构建

开展中小企业贷款业务是商业银行优化信贷资产结构的重要措施,快速、准确评估其信贷风险是商业银行亟须解决的技术问题.经过长期实地调研,本文建立了适用于我国的中小企业信贷风险评估体系,其中,所建非财务指标体系,从行业环境、企业经营管理水平、经营者经验与素质、信用品质四方面进行评估;财务指标体系包括现金流流动负债比、净资产总资产比、息税前利润流动负债比、总资产周转速度、流动比率、现金流贷款比六个指标.以Logit统计回归模型为基础建立的评估模型,在分别评估非财务指标信息和财务指标信息后,加权相加两方面结果得到综合评估结果.实证检验证明,该评估体系的评估正确率达到95%以上.     

从担保物权制度角度看商业银行信贷业务创新

本文选择与商业银行信贷业务息息相关的担保制度为视角,在分析当前担保体系下银行信贷创新遭遇的制度障碍基础上,重点围绕《物权法》确立的担保物权制度及其对商业银行信贷创新的效应和挑战进行了研究,并结合实际提出了进一步贯彻《物权法》、推动商业银行信贷创新的政策建议。     

信贷经营形势与中国工商银行信贷经营策略

信贷业务在当前和今后一段时期内仍将是我国商业银行的核心业务和主要利润来源,而当前宏观、微观等诸多方面的变化使得银行的信贷经营面临着严峻的挑战.本文从分析江苏分行的信贷经营现状与矛盾问题入手,重点剖析了问题成因和经营形势,然后在对国外银行信贷经营经验进行借鉴的基础上,针对江苏分行的实际情况,提出了制定信贷战略规划、提升信贷经营理念、健全信贷政策体系、开展品牌建设与营销、实行全过程风险管理、积极开展信贷创新六个方面的对策建议.     

信贷科学管理的工具:现金流量分析

读了贵刊今年第６期发表的孙继华、郑朝阳两同志《商业银行如何利用企业现金流量表进行信贷决策分析》一文后,笔者颇受启发。该文对新近出台的《现金流量表》的作用以及企业现金流量与偿债能力之间的关系作了令人信服的阐述,但对商业银行如何运用企业现金流量表进行信贷决策和管理的分析略显不足。本文拟就这个问题谈点粗浅看法。　　一、现金流量分析可为“以效定贷”决策提供科学依据随着我国经济和金融体制改革不断向纵深推进,商业银行信贷决策模式正由“以销定贷”向“以效定贷”转变,其趋势不可逆转。实行“以效定贷”,首先要弄清…     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

金融企业员工考核系统的设计

一、概述 为配合公司人事考核制度的贯彻执行,保证该制度执行过程中各项工作能够长期、高效、准确地完成,我们开发了公司员工考核系统,实现了人事考核工作中员工投票、考核统计、考核信息分析、报表生成等功能,减少了人事部门人员的手工操作,提高了考核工作的自动化程度.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

纳税申报法律制度的弊端分析及完善建议

纳税申报是税收民主的一种具体体现形式,基于此,世界各国普遍建立了纳税申报法律制度。我国的纳税申报法律制度也已经有20年的历史,其间经过多次修改和完善,也曾极大地促进了税收法制与税收民主的进程。但从总体来看,我国现行的纳税申报法律制度依然存在相当多的问题,不仅与税收征管改革不配套,还存在侵害纳税人权益的问题。因此,有必要修改相关法律法规,以完善我国的纳税申报法律制度。