A network perspective of comovement and structural change: Evidence from the Chinese stock market

How to appropriately characterize the comovement between any pair of individual stocks and describe the market comovement structure is a great challenge and plays a key role in understanding emerging markets. This paper applies the complex network approach to deal with this issue for the Chinese stock market. Firstly, in view of the topological properties, we investigate the time-varying comovement between individual stocks by constructing 14 directed weighted stock networks. Furthermore, the weighted LeaderRank algorithm is employed to describe the comovement structure of the entire market. Most importantly, from the perspective of fundamental factors and industry factors, we reveal the driving factors of the comovement and structural change of the entire market. The empirical results suggest that: (i) Stocks with higher weighted LeaderRank algorithm scores generally have more long-term investment value; and the so-called views, “too big to fail” and “too connected to fail”, are further confirmed. (ii) ROE, BMratio and Growth are significantly positively correlated with the comovement between individual stocks, and Mvalue is significantly negatively correlated during normal periods. However, during the crisis, the signs of regression coefficients of above four explanatory variables are reversed. (iii) In normal periods, we only find that the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery and composite have significant influence on the comovement structure of the entire market. Besides, public utilities and medias also have a significant impact during the crisis. In addition, a very interesting fact in point is that network density, average clustering coefficient, and global efficiency can provide an “early warning” for possible upcoming crises.     

Global integration and emerging stock market excess returns

This article studies the effects of the global integration process on emerging stock market excess returns in a dynamic context. I improve the existing literature in four main directions. First, I show that the average excess returns rise as the level of financial and real integration rises. Second, I find overwhelming evidence that the financial liberalizations (i.e. de jure integration) of the late 1980s and early 1990s have not been simultaneously accompanied by a de facto integration. Third, I find that the percentage of variation in emerging excess returns explained by non-traded global risk factors rises as the level of market openness rises. Last, at the country level, I show that the correlation coefficient does not represent a robust measure of integration. Results also suggest that there are substantial cross-country differences in the dynamics of the degree of financial integration.     

The rise in comovement across national stock markets: market integration or IT bubble?

A stylized fact in the portfolio diversification literature is that diversifying across countries is more effective than diversifying across industries in terms of risk reduction. But with the rise in comovement across national stock markets since the mid-1990s, this no longer appears to be true. We explore if this change is driven by global integration and therefore likely to be permanent, or if it is a temporary phenomenon associated with the recent stock market bubble. Our results point to the latter hypothesis. In the aftermath of the bubble, diversifying across countries may therefore still be effective in reducing portfolio risk.     

Equity market integration in Central European emerging markets: A cointegration analysis with shifting regimes

We investigate the existence of long-run relations between emerging Central European stock markets and the mature stock markets of Europe and the United States. Allowing for instability in these long-run relations, we obtain evidence of links between the Central European markets that is stronger than has previously been reported. We also show that the Central European markets display equilibrium relations with their mature counterparts, which persist after controlling for structural changes. It follows that Central European markets have become more integrated with global markets.     

Momentum in stock returns: evidence from an emerging stock market

This study examines the presence and sources of momentum profits in the Dhaka stock exchange (DSE). Although the short-term reversal and intermediate-term momentum are found to be evident, short-term reversal is not as consistent and significant as intermediate-term momentum. Further examination shows that momentum profits in the DSE cannot be explained by the rational source like market factor but can be explained by the size factor. We argue that presence of large number of small stocks and lack of arbitrage opportunity could be the possible causes of momentum effect in the DSE.     

Liquidity and stock returns in pure order-driven markets: evidence from the Australian stock market

This paper examines the relationship between liquidity and stock returns in the pure order-driven stock market of Australia. The bid-ask spread, turnover rate, and amortized spread are used as proxies for liquidity. In addition to liquidity, other factors that have been found to influence stock returns, such as beta and size, are also considered. Seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) and the cross-sectionally correlated timewise autoregressive (CSCTA) model form the methodological basis for this research. A small liquidity premium is found in the Australian market, which persists for the entire year. There is also strong evidence of a negative size effect.     

Impact of liquidity on stock returns: an empirical investigation of the Tunisian stock market

This paper investigates the return–liquidity relationship on one Middle East and North Africa frontier market, the Tunisian Stock Exchange (TSE). The findings provide evidence that there is a significant and positive premium for companies with high price impact and low trading frequency. However, Tunisian investors appreciate more low spread stocks. We show, also, a non-linear relation between potential delays of execution and stock returns. In addition, we find that Tunisian investors require a premium to compensate past cumulative illiquidity risk (high price impact, low turnover and high potential delay of execution) over the prior three to 12 months and to compensate past cumulative spread over 12 months. We point out also that these effects are seasonal.     

Primacy in stock market participation: the effect of initial returns on market re-entry decisions

We examine whether initial returns influence investors’ decisions to return to the stock market following withdrawal. Using a survival analysis technique to estimate Finnish retail investors’ likelihood of stock market re-entry reveals that investors who experience lower initial returns are less likely to return, even after controlling for returns in the last month and average monthly returns for the duration of investing. This primacy effect is robust to accounting for endogeneity in investors’ exit decisions, and other behavioural biases such as recency and saliency of investment experience. Individual investors appear to be subject to primacy bias and tend to put a significant weight on initial experiences in re-entry decisions.     

Empirical analysis of dynamic correlations of stock returns: evidence from Chinese A-share and B-share markets

This paper examines the dynamic correlation structure between A-share and B-share stock returns based on three different measures of correlation coefficients. Testing the models by employing daily stock-return data for the period from 1996 through 2003, we reach the following empirical conclusions. First, the correlation coefficients between A-share and B-share stock returns are time varying. Second, the dynamic path of the correlation coefficients indicates that the correlation coefficients are significantly correlated with the trend factor. Third, there is a substantial spillover effect from the Asian crisis to Chinese stock-return dynamic correlations. Fourth, the evidence suggests that the time-varying correlations are significantly associated with excessive trading activity as measured by excessive trading volumes and high–low price differentials. Fifth, the correlation between A-share and B-share markets has increased since the relaxation of the restriction on B-share market investments by domestic investors.     

Attention allocation and international stock return comovement: Evidence from the Bitcoin market

We employ extreme Bitcoin returns as exogenous shock events to investigate the impact of investor attention allocation on worldwide stock return comovement. We find that (1) these shock events decrease worldwide stock return comovement, (2) there is an asymmetric effect in which a crash shock event has a greater impact on return comovement than a jump shock event, and (3) the impact of these shock events on equity comovement is more pronounced in emerging markets. Our results suggest that identifying extreme Bitcoin returns will benefit portfolio construction. Our results may be of considerable interest to investors, as well as to academics interested in portfolio diversification, asset comovement, and cryptocurrencies.     

The determination and international transmission of stock market volatility

This paper extends the literature on low-frequency analysis of the causes and transmission of stock market volatility. It uses end-monthly data on stock market returns, interest rates, exchange rates, inflation, and industrial production for five countries (Britain, France, Germany, Japan, and the US) from July 1973 to December 1994. Efficient portfolios of world, European, and Japanese/US equity are first constructed, the existence of multivariate cointegrating relationships between them is demonstrated, and the transmission of conditional volatility between them is described. The transmission of conditional volatility from world equity markets and national business cycle variables to national stock markets is then modeled. Among the main findings are: first, world equity market volatility is caused mostly by volatility in Japanese/US markets and transmitted to European markets, and second, changes in the volatility of inflation are associated with changes of the opposite sign in stock market volatility in all markets where a significant effect is found to exist. To the extent that the volatility of inflation is positively related to its level, this implies that low inflation tends to be associated with high stock market volatility.     

International equity market integration: Theory, evidence and implications

We survey the literature on international equity market integration. In doing so, we examine the theory of integration, the burgeoning literature on empirical evidence, and the implications. It is clear from our review that significant methodological advances in recent years have provided a new perspective on the degree of such integration. Among the most important implications of the rapidly amassing evidence of substantial integration among both the developed and the emerging markets is the need for international investors to carefully monitor the risk associated with varying benefits of diversification.     

A model for stock market returns: non-Gaussian fluctuations and financial factors

While there are various theories to account for the large variations in stock prices, some observed statistical aspects require further analysis. A model is proposed for aggregate stock prices, based on observed data, rather than any efficient market hypothesis, and considering jumps in statistical parameters between phases of generally increasing, or generally decreasing, aggregate stock prices. The model relates a critical parameter for short-term behaviour directly to financial factors, especially interest rates, to explain large short-term variations which follow a non-Gaussian distribution. Economic fundamentals may affect changes over longer periods.      

Cross-sectional analysis of Swedish stock returns with time-varying beta: the Swedish stock market 1983–96

This paper analyses the ability of beta and other factors, like firm size and book-to-market, to explain cross‐sectional variation in average stock returns on the Swedish stock market for the period 1983–96. We use a bivariate GARCH(1,1) process to estimate time-varying betas for asset returns. The estimated variances of these betas, derived from a Taylor series approximation, are used for correcting errors in variables. An extreme bound analysis is utilized for testing the sensitivity of the estimated coefficients to changes in the set of included explanatory variables.
Our results show that the estimated conditional beta is a more accurate measure of the true market beta than the beta estimated by OLS. The coefficient for beta is not significantly different from zero, while the variables book-to-market and leverage have significant coefficients, and the latter coefficients are also robust to model specification. Excluding the down turn 1990–92 from the sample shows that the significance of the risk premium for leverage might be considered as an industry effect during this extreme period. Finally, we find a close dependence between the risk premium for beta and that for size and book-to-market. The omission of each of these variables may cause statistical bias in the estimated coefficient for beta.     

A comparative analysis of stock market cycles

In this article, we date the ‘recession’ and ‘expansion’ phases of 46 stock markets around the world from December 1994 to September 2013. We use the Harding and Pagan methodology to identify peaks and troughs in these stock market indices. This approach enables us to establish periods of synchronization between the markets based on the timing of peaks and troughs and to measure this synchronization by means of the Harding and Pagan statistic. We find that several recent world crisis episodes and simultaneous recoveries can be identified with this method. We also present evidence demonstrating an increase in the pro-cyclicality of stock markets around the world.     

On the volatility spillover between lslamic and conventional stock markets: A quantile regression analysis

This paper aims at analyzing the degree and structure of interdependencies in terms of volatility (transmission, contagion) between Islamic and conventional stock markets on calm periods and at times of financial fragility and crisis. We focused on the recent financial instability periods and used the Quantile Regression-based GARCH model. Main results lead to very interesting conclusions. First, it has been found that Islamic stock markets are not totally immune to the global financial crisis. Second, a very strong interdependence is sensed from the conventional to the Islamic stock markets, especially, from the conventional developed markets to the Islamic Emerging and Arab markets and to the Islamic developed markets. Finally, it has been proved that the interdependencies from conventional to Islamic markets are propagated between Islamic markets. Our findings suggest that the Islamic finance industry does not seem able to provide cushion against economic and financial shocks that affect conventional markets.     

The relationship between returns and unexpected earnings: A global analysis by accounting regimes

Numerous studies have documented a long-term association between earnings and returns. Surprisingly, few attempts have been made to internationally examine market reactions to earnings releases over return windows less than 12 months. This paper globally explores the market reaction to unexpected earnings defined by both the change in earnings per share (EPS) and analyst forecast errors (AFE) using a 1-month return window. First, the existence of the earnings-returns relationship is examined using a sample of firms from 32 countries grouped into accounting regimes. Accounting regimes represent groups of countries that exhibit similarities in accounting standards, stock market characteristics, corporate governance mechanisms, and economic conditions. Thus, similar reactions to earnings are expected within regimes. Next, the incremental information content of analyst forecasts, a proxy for investors’ earnings expectations, is examined. Finally, changes in the structure of the earnings-returns relationship over time are investigated. Results support the existence of a relationship between earnings and returns in all accounting regimes. In addition, analyst forecast errors appear to be incorporated into earnings expectations in most developed countries. Finally, evidence suggests that the significance and explanatory power in the earnings-returns relationship has increased in recent years.     

Global economic activity as an explicator of emerging market equity returns

This paper evaluates whether global economic activity, measured by the maritime index and commodity index, is a distinct common factor in explaining equity returns in emerging markets. We document two important features of global equity markets that show that emerging market equities are a segregated part of the global stock market. First, our results show that increases in global economic activity are associated with higher emerging market equity returns. Second, companies in developed markets that have a significant exposure in emerging markets have incremental exposure to commodity returns. By allocating more capital to emerging market equities, an investor increases portfolio exposure to changes in global economic activity.     

When bad news is good news: Geopolitical risk and the cross-section of emerging market stock returns

Using a news-based gauge of geopolitical risk, we study its role in asset pricing in global emerging markets. We find that changes in risk positively predict future stock returns. The countries with the highest increase in geopolitical uncertainty outperform their counterparts with the lowest change by up to 1% per month. The anomaly is not explained by other established asset pricing effects and remains robust to many considerations. We link the observed phenomenon with investor overreaction to geopolitical news driven by the availability bias.