西部开发与东、中部发展问题研究(上)

西部开发与东、中部地区协调发展 ,是“十五”计划时期我国经济和社会发展的重要战略任务之一。尤其重要的是 ,“十五”时期将是我国经济和社会发展的区域格局开始发生重大变化的历史转折时期。经过 2 0多年的改革开放和经济建设 ,东部地区获得了长足的发展。现在 ,促进中西部地区更快发展特别是西部大开发的任务已经提上了最重要议事日程。本文从西部开发与东、中部地区协调发展入手 ,提出了西部大开发的总体战略、思路和分阶段目标。     

规模不大 深具潜力 西南地区纺织产业发展现状分析

随着西部大开发的实施和促进中部崛起的实施,纺织产业由东部沿海向中西部地区梯度转移已成为大势所趋。中西部地区承接产业梯度转移的能力如何,成为一个值得关注的问题。本文着眼于我国西南地区纺织产业发展现状,探讨西南地区纺织产业发展潜力。     

西部大开发中的水电资源配置

经国家多次规划和开发,我国形成了十二大水电基地,其中有十大水电基地在中西部地区.充分开发和利用中西部地区的水电资源,有利于全国的电力结构的调整和优化,中西部地区的电能大体通过北、中、南三条主要通道和东部电网联结,实现中西部电能与东部技术经济资源的区位互补,优化电能资源配置.西部地区水电开发对西部地区的经济发展有较强的拉动作用,对增加财政税收和就业,对相关的产业发展,对库区的脱贫和经济发展都有促进作用.西部水电资源开发必须与可持续发展战略相结合,保护生态环境,实行开发性移民,充分利用水库的航运、交通、水产养殖、旅游等自然条件,并注重水电站的防洪作用.     

资本投入、投资收益与西部大开发

对2000年～2007年东、中、西和东北四大区域投资、消费、出口对地区生产总值增长贡献的统计分析表明，西部地区是最为典型的投资驱动型区域经济发展模式，而这种模式因为西部地区特殊的区情而必然在今后相当长的一段时期内持续下去。继续加大资本投入仍然是今后相当长的历史时期内深入实施西部大开发战略的现实选择。与人们普遍的主观判断不同，实证分析显示，西部地区虽然在整体投资收益方面较东部地区低，但在许多具体的产业运行效益方面，西部地区则有着显著的比较优势。然而这些产业仍然面临着资本瓶颈制约的难题，形成了与传统资本流动规律的悖论。在实证数量分析的基础上，文章从拓展资本投入来源、优化投资方式、建设投资长效机制、创立投资瞄准机制、创新投资收益回报机制等方面，提出了系统性的对策建议。     

运营效果良好 今后继续推广

受气源限制，我国天然气客车的使用区域集中在燃气资源开发较早、储量丰富的中西部地区，天然气客车在东部地区的使用多集中在城市公交或者短途客运。     

西部开发与东、中部发展问题研究(下)

五、培育中西部地区自我发展的竞争力1.当前中西部经济发展环境的变化尽管从我国区域经济结构的总体特征看 ,由于东部地区和中西部地区经济发展水平呈梯度差异 ,社会生产力从东部地区向中西部地区的逐级扩散、梯度推进是一个客观必然的过程 ,但是 ,当前中西部地区发展的条件与东部地区当年的情况是有很大差别的。前 2 0年 ,东部地区的经济发展主要依靠传统产业的高速度数量扩张。但是 ,由于 2 0年来我国的宏观经济条件发生了根本性的变化 ,当前中西部地区经济的数量扩张遇到了障碍 :外需增长减缓 ,内需水平较低 ,大多数传统产业的发展进入成…     

西部大开发建筑业大有可为

1995年9月,党中央第十四届五中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展的“九五”计划和2000年远景目标的建议》,明确提出,从“九五”开始采取切实措施,加快中西部地区发展。 1997年9月,中共第十五次代表大会提出,加快中西部地区的发展,积极引导和鼓励外商到中西部投资,以增强中西部自身发展能力。 1999年11月,中共中央经济工作会议提出:把调整地区经济结构,实施西部大开发,促进区域经济、城乡经济协调发展,作为今后国民经济进行战略性调整的重要内容。 2000年1月,国务院西部地区开发领导小组在京召开西部地区开发会议。主要议题是学习、领会党中央关于实施西部大开发战略的重要决策和指示精神,统一思想,提高认识,研究加快西部地区发展的基本思路和战略任务。会     

西部地区纺织服装产业发展分析

我国西部地区区域地理战略位置重要,资源丰富,市场潜力大。但由于自然、历史、社会等多方面原因,使得西部地区经济发展步伐相对滞后,纺织服装产业的发展水平也相对落后。尽管西部大开发早已拉开了帷幕,但是对西部地区的改革开放和现代化的建设力度仍有待加强。如今,我国东部地区的纺织服装产业经营成本受土地资源、生产原料、劳动力等成本条件的上涨推动而一路走高,行业利润空间逐渐缩小,从而使得中西部的纺织服装产业开发成为业内关注焦点。“东中西部相互配合,推进产业梯度转移”也成为全行业“十一五”期间的工作重点之一。据此,本文将主…     

区域政策、区域对外开放与区域外向经济发展差异

改革开放以来,我国采取了非均衡的区域对外开放战略及递进式的区域开放模式,使得外商直接投资主要分布在东部沿海经济发达地区,而且,由于外商直接投资与区域对外贸易的高度相关关系,最终也使得我国的区域对外贸易也出现了非均衡的现象。当然,外商直接投资对于东中西部的影响也并不相同,随着我国西部大开发战略及中部崛起的区域发展战略实施,中部地区正在成为我国吸引外资增长最快的地区,但是,西部地区却并没有出现我们所预想的那样,即外资的大量进入以带动西部地区的经济发展。     

抓住历史机遇,迎接市场挑战——浅析新形势下电力市场的结构特点

２０００年１１月召开的中央经济工作会议上，党中央明确提出了实施西部大开发战略。去年初，在国务院西部开发工作会议上，朱总理强调，各部门、各地区要站在我国现代化建设全局和战略高度，把思想和行动统一到党中央的重大决策上来，不失时机地推进西部地区大开发；而实施西部大开发战略，加快中西部地区发展，是我国现代化建设的重要组成部分，是实现第三战略目标的客观要求。随着西部电力工业的发展和西电东送战略的实施，西部电力市场的概念也发生了变化。从整体看，西部电力市场概念的外延不仅包括西部地区，西南地区和东部地区也是西…     

Capital flows and stock price volatility: Evidence from Hong Kong

This paper investigates both the short-run dynamics and the long-run co-movement of stock prices, capital flows and the real interest rates in Hong Kong. By using the Johansen multivariate cointegration technique, this paper finds that there are two cointegration vectors among the variables. In other words, the results show that the three variables in Hong Kong are moving together. This long-run relationship implies that even the stock market is efficient in the short-run. Its long-run movement can, however, be predicted by the activities of the capital market.This paper benefited greatly from the comments of anonymous referees. All remaining errors are ours alone.     

A Cost Function for the Natural Gas Transmission Industry

This article estimates the parameters of a cost function for the process of gas transmission based on the two basic capital inputs to the process: pipe and compressors. This in turn allows us to assess the combination of capital, operating, and maintenance costs that minimize the total cost of a natural gas transportation system. We further show that the industry's production technology exhibits increasing returns to scale. That is, we find that the long-run marginal cost is lower than the long-run average cost per unit. The natural gas transmission cost function derived is consistent with the engineering aspects of the industry and may be used to find the minimal cost of a system to transport natural gas.     

The long-run impact of Information and Communication Technology on economic output: The case of Australia

This paper investigates the cointegration and causal relationships between Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and economic output in Australia using data for about five decades. The framework used in this paper is the single-sector aggregate production function, which is the first comprehensive approach of this kind to include ICT and non-ICT capital and other factors to examine long-run Granger causality. The empirical evidence points to a cointegration relationship between ICT capital and output, and implies that ICT capital Granger causes economic output and multifactor productivity, as does non-ICT capital.     

The Dynamics of REIT Capital Flows and Returns

This study examines the effects of capital flows into the REIT sector on REIT returns and, simultaneously, the effects of REIT returns on subsequent REIT capital flows. The dynamic relation between REIT capital flows and returns is estimated using vector autoregression (VAR) techniques. Unlike static regression techniques, our dynamic model produces estimates of the short-run relationships, long-run relationships, impulse response functions and forecast variance decompositions. We find evidence that REIT equity flows are significantly positively related to the prior quarter's flows and negatively related to flows from two quarters ago. The evidence on the responsiveness of flows to prior returns is time-period specific. In the important post-1992 subperiod, REIT returns do not significantly affect REIT flows in any of the VAR model specifications. Simultaneously, REIT capital flows do appear to have a significant influence on equity REIT returns.     

自主研发、技术引进与区域创新发展——基于人力资本视角的实证考察

本文基于2001~2015年我国30省市的面板数据,建立以人力资本为门限变量,以自主研发、技术引进为门限依赖变量的面板门限模型,从人力资本视角实证分析了自主研发、技术引进对区域创新能力的非线性影响效应。结果表明：自主研发、技术引进与区域创新能力之间存在着显著的以人力资本为门限变量的单门限效应。当人力资本水平低于门限值时,自主研发对区域创新能力的影响不显著,而技术引进能显著地促进区域创新能力的提高;当人力资本水平高于门限值时,自主研发、技术引进均能显著地提高区域创新能力,且自主研发比技术引进更能促进区域创新能力的提高。从目前人力资本水平来看,我国大部分省份已具备从技术引进向自主研发模式转变的人力资本基础。     

Do R&D and ICT affect total factor productivity growth differently?

We analyze the effect of ICT and R&D on total factor productivity (TFP) growth across different industries in Sweden. R&D alone is significantly associated with contemporaneous TFP growth, thus exhibiting indirect effects. Although there is no significant short-run association between ICT and TFP, we find a positive association with a lag of seven to eight years. Thus, R&D affect TFP much faster than ICT-investments. We also divide ICT capital into hardware and software capital. To our knowledge, this distinction has not been made in any previous study analyzing TFP at the industry level. The results show that lagged hardware capital services growth is significantly associated with TFP growth. Hence, investments complementary to hardware are needed to reap the long-run TFP effects from reorganizing production.     

Institutional Capital Flows and Return Dynamics in Private Commercial Real Estate Markets

This article examines the short- and long-run dynamics among institutional capital flows and returns in private real estate markets. At the aggregate U.S. level, we find evidence that lagged institutional flows significantly influence subsequent returns. When disaggregating by property type at the national level, we find that capital flows predict subsequent returns in the apartment and office sectors, but not in the retail and industrial markets. At the metropolitan level, we find that the flows help explain subsequent returns in a limited number of core business statistical areas (CBSAs), although these CBSAs collectively represent about 30% of institutional capital. We find no evidence that institutional returns are predictive of future capital flows at the national or CBSA level, suggesting that institutional investors are not chasing returns.     

Effects of social capital on processes in a regional strategic network

Understanding the role of social capital is vital for implementing cluster policies as regional strategic networks and cluster initiatives are influenced by the local socio-economic context and its social capital. Social capital can create value for companies by closure of the network structure (bonding), which maintains internal mutual trust but bonding can also over-embed companies in their social context, whereas sparse networks that provide links to other parts of relevant business networks (bridging) often provide greater innovation benefits. We provide a conceptual framework applied to a case study of a Swedish regional strategic network, and examples mostly of positive effects of bridging social capital and negative effects of the bonding form are identified. This is interpreted against the background of the regional dependence-oriented culture.     

Housing Finance in a Stochastic Economy: Contract Pricing and Choice

An empirical analysis of macroeconomic time series from the mortgage, housing, capital and labor markets is based on life-cycle consumption and mortgage option pricing considerations. Vector autoregression techniques characterize the long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics of the mortgage market as it relates to the other sectoral markets. A simultaneous-equations model characterizes the partial equilibrium in the differentiated products market for fixed- and adjustablerate mortgage contracts. The empirical results reveal the impacts that market conditions have on mortgage volumes and prices, and they generally support the implications of the consumption and pricing theories.     

政府人力资本对区域创新驱动发展影响研究

本文首先对政府人力资本对创新的影响机理进行了分析,继而利用我国各省市2001～2013年的面板数据,就政府人力资本对我国创新发展的影响进行了实证分析,研究结果表明：政府人力资本价值对区域创新起着正向促进作用,政府人力资本规模对区域创新的影响呈倒U型的变化关系,且政府人力资本对创新的影响作用存在明显的区域和类别差异。进一步加入交互项验证政府人力资本发挥作用的路径和条件,结果表明,政府行为优化和政府效率的提升,会促进政府人力资本对区域创新作用的发挥;社会人力资本水平是制约政府人力资本对区域创新影响的重要条件。最后,文章提出了优化政府人力资本规模,提升政府人力资本价值,完善政府人力资本管理机制,促进创新驱动发展的政策建议。