投资组合模型及其算法研究

在复杂而又充满风险的证券投资活动中,投资者总是十分审慎地决策,以回避风险,追求满意的收益。证券的风险可以分为两大类:即可分散风险和不可分散风险。前者与整个证券市场并无系统的联系,是仅存在于个别企业和个别行业的风险。如质量风险,违约风险,这类风险可以通过投资多样化,构成适当的投资组合加以避免或减少。后者则是由同时影响所有公司的因素引起的。如利率风险,市场风险,购买力风险。它不可能通过组合投资加以削弱或分散。精明的投资者不会将投资选择局限在一种有价证券上,他会在各种有     

基于CAPM模型对能源行业企业资产预期收益率的测算研究

能源行业发展对于社会经济发展至关重要,而能源行业企业资产预期收益率测算是能源行业企业面临的一大难题。利用无风险收益率、风险系数与能源市场组合的收益率3个参数,构建标准CAPM模型,对能源行业企业资产预期收益率进行测算行之有效。根据国家的国债与存款利率确定无风险收益率;利用能源市场组合在不同时刻的收盘指数,确定能源市场组合的收益率;通过单一能源行业企业资产,同能源市场投资组合的斜方差与市场方差的比值,确定风险系数,由此利用CAPM模型计算预期收益率。以某省域能源行业企业为目标,分析目标资产预期收益率,结果显示:能源行业风险系数值同不同企业的资产预期收益率间具有显著的正相关性;能源行业中部分企业的资产预期收益的风险与能源市场组合风险相比较高;预期收益率产生差异的主要原因为不同能源销售对象的能源销售价格具有差异性。     

第四讲 投资决策分析

投资，是指经济主体为获得预期收益，投入一定量的资金（资本）而不断转化为资产的经济活动。在市场经济条件下，企业能否把筹集到的资金投放到收益高、回收快、风险小的项目上去，对企业的生存和发展是十分重要的。投资可以从不同角度分类，财务管理理论主要是从直接投资和间接投资角度来研究投资决策问题。直接投资是指把资金直接投入于生产经营性资产，以使获得利润的投资，如：用于购建固定资产和流动资产的投资；间接投资又称证券投资，是指把资金投放于股票、债券等金融资产，以便取得股息或利息收入的投资。一、固定资产投资决策和流…     

VaR约束与资产配置优化——基于中国证券市场的经验数据分析

VaR模型是一种有效的风险计量和管理工具。在假设组合收益服从正态分布的条件下,分析了引入VaR约束的均值一方差模型及有效边界;考虑在一定置信水平下。结合组合收益的实际分布,给出了满足投资者VaR约束下期望收益最大化的计量模型及投资策略选择,并利用中国证券市场数据进行了实证研究。     

基于风险的电力项目投资决策方法研究

电力工业市场化改革使电力企业成为市场主体和竞争实体,并为投资者提供了多种投资项目选择。在这种新的市场环境下,为了获得更多利润或降低项目风险,有必要对建设项目进行研究,指导投资者合理分配在各个项目的投资。从投资组合角度出发,以降低风险、保证投资成本的回收为目标,建立了求解最低风险、最大收益的多目标数学模型,利用投资学中马柯维茨模型对投资者的投资组合策略进行了初步探讨,在保证最低风险的情况下,使项目投资的期望收益最大,所得结论对投资者确定不同项目中的投资比例具有一定指导意义。     

高技术企业原始创新风险传递效应模型研究

高技术企业的原始创新是企业自主研究和开发全新技术并实现产业化的过程,是学习知识、积累知识和创造知识的知识集聚行为。从知识集聚的视角,高技术企业原始创新风险包含创新风险损失和创新风险收益,在产品研发层面、组织运行层面和外部网络层面会形成系列化、连锁化的风险传递,渐次派生出原生风险、次生风险和衍生风险,构成了高技术企业原始创新的风险传递链。高技术企业原始创新风险在不同层面形成不同的风险扩散规律和风险传递方式,构成了高技术企业原始创新的风险传递效应模型。     

风险管理中科学的风险评估方法

风险投资对企业的发展所起的作用已越来越受到重视和认可，作为主动进入高风险投资领域的资本，其目的是追求投资组合的高收益，风险投资也只有在获取高收益的情况下才有可能成为企业快速成长的资金来源，而高收益的保障就是进行科学的风险评估并有效控制投资风险。     

住房抵押贷款提前还贷风险管理研究

从现代金融和风险管理角度看,住房抵押贷款提前还贷对商业银行是一种期权性风险,对其收取违约金并非国际惯例,也并不是有效的风险补偿方式。商业银行应适应市场竞争需要,接受风险转嫁并提供风险管理服务,运用风险定价技术在按揭交易价格中对提前还贷风险进行补偿。对于已承担的风险,商业银行应构建抵押贷款提前还贷的数据库,通过表内对;中和市场对冲,推出多样化的住房抵押贷款方式,积极推进住房抵押贷款证券化．从而最终增强银行的盈利来源和核心竞争力。     

企业如何规避外汇风险

<正> 2001年是新世纪的第一年,中国与世界各国的贸易往来将进一步增多。企业利用外国贷款将是我国对外经济往来的重要组成部分,企业形成外币债务后,便面临着许多风险。而外汇市场又是一个收益与风险并存的市场,其中尤以汇率剧烈波动带来的风险最为突出。那么,企业怎样规避外汇风险并从中赢得更大的收益呢?本文拟从外汇交易的风险成因及如何规避外汇风险方面谈一些看法。     

利用离岸信托贷款结构防范海外项目的投资风险

信托贷款结构融资作为离岸信托融资方式的一种,可以有效防范项目所在地的国家和地区的风险,已成为世界大银行支持跨国企业实施海外扩张的重要融资手段.信托贷款融资项目的账户全部设立在境外,其现金流也在境外循环,可避免外汇兑换与汇率方面的风险,减轻资产被征用和政府违约等方面的政治风险.同时,采用信托贷款融资的贷款人对项目收益具有优先分配权,贷款人的利益得到优先保障,从而增强贷款银行对项目的融资信心.目前,信托贷款结构融资在我国的福建液化天然气（LNG）项目的上游印尼东固气田的融资方式中也被初次采用.我国石油企业要加强国际化经营,必将扩大在海外的油气业务,采用信托贷款结构融资可以更加有利于海外油气项目的成功融资与运营.     

居民家庭金融资产组合集成风险的测量与波动分析

居民家庭金融资产在不同时期风险的聚集可能会引发宏观金融风险, 甚至导致金融危机。 因此, 文章试图测算家庭金融资产组合风险并描述其变动特点。 首先构建家庭金融资产组合的 Copula 函数, 然后计算其VaR 值, 并比较分析 VaR 值与各金融资产收益的变动关系 , 发现当金融资产中高风险资产的收益低于 VaR 值下限时, 家庭金融资产风险不断积聚并达到高点, 而这个过程与金融危机发生的时间相契合。 家庭金融资产组合风险和资产中的风险资产收益会影响未来的利率和 CPI 的变化。     

Linear programming for bank portfolio management in Singapore

James Tobin's portfolio theory can be applied to bank portfolio management in that a bank would maximise the rates of return of its portfolio of assets, subject to the expected degree of risk and liquidity. Chambers and Charnes (1961), Cohen and Hammer (1967), Booth and Dash (1979) and others apply the linear programming model to the management of bank funds. This paper carries out a linear programming analysis on the consolidated balance sheets of commercial banks in Singapore for the period 1978–1983. The results show that by and large banks do try to maximise the returns of their portfolio, subject to legal, policy, bounding and total asset constraints, which denote riskiness and liquidity of the portfolio of assets. In a direct way, banks conform to the portfolio choice theory; they have to balance yield and liquidity against security. Although the computer cannot replace a manager, linear programming can serve as a useful guide.Dr Lee Sheng-Yi is an Associate Professor (retired) in the National University of Singapore and a Visiting Senior Research Fellow in Chung Hua Institution for Economic Research, Taipei; and Dr Yeong Wee Yong is a Senior Lecturer, School of Management Faculty of Business Administration, National University of Singapore.     

信用风险监管资本测度优化

在巴塞尔新资本协议框架下的IRB模型基础上,通过违约相关性模型的推导,得出了降低信贷资产组合信用风险加权资产的一些有效途径;通过对同质类资产组合和异质类资产组合的风险集中度调整的方法,提出了风险分散的具体路径;通过由银行的资本总成本最小化约束模型和监管者破产银行数目最小化约束模型联合组成的激励相容模型,将银行出于内部风险管理目的而计算出来的风险价值,同监管当局出于监管目的而要求银行确定的监管资本有效地联系起来。     

Privately Versus Publicly Held Asset Investment Performance

Classic asset pricing is problematic as a method to assess privately held asset investment performance. We propose an alternative approach that involves adjusting the characteristics of assets constituting an index or portfolio to match the asset characteristics of a reference index or portfolio. This approach is applied to commercial real estate, where we create an index of REIT returns to compare to the NCREIF index. To enhance comparability, return indices are adjusted for partial-year financial data, leverage, asset mix and fees. Adjusted results over a 1980–1998 sample period show general convergence between the indices, although an annual return difference of over three percentage points remains in favor of public market asset ownership. Possible causes of the investment performance gap include liquidity and geography as missing risk factor adjustments, an unrepresentative sample period, and the form in which commercial real estate assets are held.     

Yet Another View on Why a Home Is One's Castle

We compute equity-based real after-tax rates of return for homeowners and landlords in the United States for 1952–2005. The study confirms that a combined aggregate for residential housing provides a high average net return and low volatility, has low correlation with financial assets and can provide hedge against inflation. The efficient frontier analysis shows that the optimal portfolio for a household with a coefficient of relative risk aversion of four to five is one which contains a bit larger amount of housing than stocks, close to what one observes in the real world.     

Using column generation to solve extensions to the Markowitz model

Abstract

We introduce a solution scheme for portfolio optimization problems with cardinality constraints. Typical portfolio optimization problems are extensions of the classical Markowitz mean–variance portfolio optimization model. We solve such types of problems using a method similar to column generation. In this scheme, the original problem is restricted to a subset of the assets resulting in a master convex quadratic problem. Then the dual information of the master problem is used in a subproblem to propose more assets to consider. We also consider other extensions to the Markowitz model to diversify the portfolio selection within given intervals for active weights.     

关于中小企业融资问题的思考

长期以来,融资难一直是制约中小企业发展的重要瓶颈,尤其是在应对金融危机过程中,融资问题更加突出。这里面有五个原因:一是政治风险,占全国企业99.6%的中小企业大多数是民营企业,如果银行贷款给大型国有企业,即使出现了风险也是国家的,而贷给民营企业性质就不同了。二是信用风险,中小企业规模小,可抵押资产少,其信用满足不了银行的审查要求。三是道德风险,有的中小企业管理不规范,财务不透明,与银行信息不对称。四是市场风险,中小企业抗风险能力弱,市场需求敏感。五是交易成本高。对银行来讲,签一个大合同与签一个小合同手续成本是一样的。针对这些问题,如何缓解中小企业融资难?笔者认为要在进一步加强政府对中小企业扶持、放宽放活政策、加强企业现代管理、做大做强信用担保体系等方面,有所创新,有所突破。     

Real Estate Returns: A Comparison with Other Investments

Real estate returns, measured unleveraged, have been between those of stocks and bonds over 1960–1982. Due to appraisal smoothing and imperfect marketability, one must be careful about directly comparing measured real estate returns with those on other assets. It is likely, however, that low correlations with stocks and bonds make real estate a diversification opportunity for traditional portfolio managers. In addition, the issue of how various assets are priced is addressed. While stocks are priced primarily on market or beta risk, and bonds are priced primarily on interest rate and default risk, the real estate pricing mechanism includes residual risk and non-risk factors such as taxes, marketability costs and information costs.     

Driving shareholder value with customer asset management: Moving beyond customer lifetime value

Customer relationships can be conceptualized as market-based assets. Links have been shown between management of these assets and the creation of shareholder value. However, the business-to-business applications of customer asset management seem to lag behind the applications suggested in a business-to-consumer context. This occurrence is possibly related to an over-emphasis on customer lifetime value-based approaches that do not cover the complexities of business-to-business relationships. The authors posit that customer asset management applications should pay attention to all four drivers of shareholder value: revenue, cost, assets, and risk. Using as their basis a review of literature and the findings of an empirical research process consisting of three longitudinal case studies, the authors develop a conceptual framework, identify four research propositions, and outline 11 ways of managing business-to-business customer relationships for increased shareholder value. The findings from the case studies suggest that B2B firms are able to acknowledge all suggested shareholder value drivers. Findings also suggest that firms should develop customer portfolio models and differentiate their customer management concepts in order to move customer asset management beyond traditional acquisition–retention optimization.     

浅议电网企业应收账款的融资

介绍了商业票据贴现、保理融资、应收账款质押贷款、应收账款信托贷款等融资方式在电网企业应收账款融资方面的应用,比较分析了各种方法的优缺点,发现这些融资方式不仅操作简单、风险低,还可以优化融资结构。与现有半年期短期贷款利率相比,商业票据贴现最多可节省42%的融资成本,大大降低电网企业的成本。