出口信用保险对我国出口贸易作用的实证研究

本文采用2002～2013年我国外贸出口额、8个出口行业和出口到84个国家（地区）的贸易额,以及同期出口信用保险数据作为样本,在扩展引力模型的框架下研究了出口信用保险与我国外贸出口的关系.实证结果表明,出口信用保险在增加出口、推动出口市场多元化、支持有关出口行业发展等方面有较为显著的促进作用;对出口到风险较高的新兴市场国家和地区以及船舶、机电产品等具有较高外部融资需求行业的杠杆作用更为明显.     

欧盟东扩对我国制造业影响的实证分析

欧盟东扩后产生了贸易创造和贸易转移效应,其中贸易转移效应将影响我国对欧盟出口。东扩的国家人均GDP显著低于西欧,但也显著高于我国,所以与中国相比对欧盟出口可能拥有不同比较优势,对我国不同技术含量的制造业商品出口欧盟会产生不同程度的影响,本文首先分析了中东欧主要国家和我国制造业的双边贸易以及中国和中东欧国家出口欧盟的制造业商品结构,然后基于制造业相对显示性指数实证分析得出：欧盟东扩后,制造业商品出口结构恶化,特别是中低技能技术的制造业产品在东盟东扩后受到的贸易转移效应影响尤为明显,而对我国劳动和资源密集型产品影响不大,还有最近几年的贸易摩擦使得高技能技术产品的出口欧盟受阻,进一步恶化了我国对欧盟制造业商品出口结构。     

Cross‐Country Spillovers from Fiscal Consolidations

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, many OECD countries adopted fiscal consolidation strategies to reduce their debt‐to‐GDP ratios. This paper investigates the effects of fiscal consolidation on trading partners’ growth through trade linkages. Using a measure of exogenous fiscal shocks in export markets, fiscal consolidation spillovers are found to slow down domestic growth and decrease employment. To the extent that fiscal consolidations are synchronised, fiscal policies have large spillover effects on output. Spillovers of fiscal consolidations on growth are found to be initially larger between countries belonging to currency unions, though this larger impact vanishes over the medium term. Larger spillovers of fiscal consolidation coincide with lower bilateral exports, higher bilateral imports and relative increases in unit labour costs in currency unions. Spillovers of fiscal consolidation are also found to be more detrimental to domestic growth during economic downturns in export markets.     

提高出口退税能够“稳就业”和“稳外贸”吗?

近年来,全球贸易保护主义抬头加剧了各国之间的贸易摩擦。本文以中美贸易为例,探讨中国出口退税政策在稳就业、稳外贸以及应对贸易摩擦中的作用机制。首先基于1994-2020年季度数据发现:中国就业的波动较平稳;净出口则呈现高波动特征;中国就业和净出口呈现弱顺周期。这些周期特征与其他国家存在显著差异。其次构建了一个含有不完全金融市场和价格不完全传递的对称两国开放经济DSGE模型,数值模拟发现:在本国出口退税冲击和它国技术冲击下,模型能够较好地拟合中国就业和净出口的周期特征,其中财富效应和由贸易条件变化引起的支出转移效应是主要的内在传导机制。借助模型对中美贸易摩擦的反事实实验发现:中国单方面提高1%出口退税时,中国就业增长0.05%,净出口增长0.28%,呈现较强持续性,提高出口退税能够稳就业和稳外贸;当中国提高1%出口退税和美国提高1%进口关税时,中国就业增长0.03%,净出口增长0.16%,呈现较强持续性,勒纳中性不成立,此时出口退税在稳就业和稳外贸中的作用尽管有所削弱,但依然有效。     

Foreign banks and trade

Exploiting unique, time-varying, bilateral data on bank ownership for many countries, we show that exports tend to be larger when a foreign bank from the importing country is present. Entry of a foreign bank also boosts export growth to the home country of the foreign bank relative to other countries, especially when foreign bank presence in the country is large and bilateral cross-border lending low. We find supportive evidence that foreign banks facilitate trade by reducing financial frictions for firms. Entry spurs exports to the foreign bank's home country especially in sectors more dependent on external finance, and particularly so in countries less economically and financially developed and with a higher share of foreign banks. Imports of external finance dependent sectors also grow more after entry, but less so than exports do. Exit of a foreign bank does not fully eliminate the beneficial effects of prior foreign bank presence on exports.     

基于CMS模型视角的中韩工业制成品贸易增长分析

在中国加入WTO之后,中韩工业制成品双边贸易发展迅速。以UNComtrade数据为基础,利用CMS模型考察在1996～2001年、2002～2009年两个时期内推动中韩工业制成品贸易增长的因素。结果显示:从总体上看,导致中韩工业制成品双边贸易增长的因素是一致的,即进口国进口需求的增加、产品出口竞争力的提高以及进口需求结构与出口产品结构互补性的增强。但对于不同的工业制成品来说,推动中韩贸易增长的因素略有差异。     

汇率波动对出口稳定的影响：中间品进口的作用

本文在一个市场渗透率内生决定的框架中讨论汇率波动对出口稳定的影响。基于包含企业异质性的理论分析，发现汇率波动会影响出口在不同企业之间的重新配置以及企业在出口市场的进入退出决策。平均来看，汇率波动会引起企业出口金额的下降以及更多(少)地退出(进入)市场。进一步分析发现，相较其他企业，汇率波动对企业出口的负向影响对中间品进口更少以及小规模出口企业更明显，而中间品进口可以对冲汇率波动的负向作用。本文使用我国海关进出口交易数据对汇率波动如何影响出口稳定进行实证分析，结果支持了理论部分提出的假说。本文的政策性含义是，只要企业能够更加深度并优化对国际分工和全球供应链的参与，汇率弹性增强并不会对其出口带来更大的汇率风险。     

The global threat of deflation calls for swift interest rate cuts in Europe

Conclusions Given the serious crisis in Asia and evidence of its spreading to other developing and transition countries, the attempt by German economic policymakers to achieve faster economic growth and higher employment almost exclusively by means of successes on export markets appears likely to fail sooner than had been expected by the DIW⁵. The significance of domestic demand has been systematically underestimated in recent years. With the help of extremely low pay settlements, the D-Mark was devalued in real terms; this promoted exports, but at the same time led to growth losses in private consumption and investment that more than offset the gains in exports. On top of this German fiscal policy—as documented in the following report in this issue—has weakened domestic demand and investment activity. This strategy might have worked if a symmetrically oriented monetary policy had reacted to the deflationary trend inherent in pay settlements and the fiscal-policy stance by swiftly and significantly reducing interest rates. This did not happen. It was therefore inevitable that the crisis in sales markets made its full effects felt on economic growth. More seriously still, if cost deflation in Germany is not brought to an end in the coming year by a return to productivity-oriented wage settlements, it will pose a major threat to the European Monetary Union.⁶ If Germany pursues a beggar-thyneighbour policy in a Europe without exchange rates, this can only result in deflation and a downward economic spiral.⁷     

Real exchanges rates in commodity producing countries: A reappraisal

Commodity price booms, as those recorded in the last decade, may have a significant economic impact in small, commodity exporting, developing countries. Whether the impact on output is positive or negative is still unclear. It depends on various factors, notably on the impact that commodity prices can have on the real exchange rate of the commodity exporting countries. Two recent papers show that the real exchange rate appreciates when commodity prices increase. Our analysis produces new estimates of this relationship by focusing on a large sample of developing countries which are specialized in the export of one leading commodity. By using non-stationary panel techniques robust to cross-sectional dependence, we find that the price of the dominant commodity has a significant long-run impact on the real exchange rate when the exports of the leading commodity have a share of at least 20 percent in the country's total exports of merchandises. Our results also show that the larger this share, the larger the size of the impact.     

Agriculture in the Uruguay Round: Interests of Developing Countries

Agriculture has been favored and protected in developed countrieswhile trade policies in developing countries frequently supportindustry at the expense of exportables and unprotected importablesin agriculture. This protection constrains expansion of temperateand subtropical agricultural exports from developing countries.Several studies have estimated the effects of liberalizationof trade restrictions on world prices, export earnings, andimport costs. While developing countries generally would benefitfrom having the agricultural policies of the most powerful countriesbound by international rules on trade, there are differencesamong the developing countries as to which products should beliberalized. Even if such conflicts did not exist, politicallyfeasible means to obtain such compliance are elusive. The potentiallymost feasible approaches for developing countries to obtainsome measure of liberalization in the Uruguay Round of tradenegotiations are discussed.     

Second-Best Foreign Exchange Policy in the Presence of Domestic Price Controls and Export Subsidies

Poland, like many developing countries, has required its exportersto surrender a share of their foreign exchange earnings to thegovernment at an overvalued exchange rate. During the late 1980s,it progressively increased the share which exporters were allowedto retain (the retention ratio), but other distortions to thetrade regime remained. A model developed here estimates theeffects of these policies on welfare under different foreignexchange elasticities, export and import subsidies, officialexchange rates, and policies on exporter retention of foreignexchange earnings. The retention ratios in effect in early 1989were equivalent to a 51 percent tax on exports or an importtariff of 130 percent. As economic theory would suggest, maximumsocial benefit would derive from removal of the full range ofdistortions. Full retention of foreign exchange by exportersin the absence of other distortions would provide social benefitsequivalent to 8 percent of gross domestic product. But the neteffect of the other policies together is a bias toward tradables,so that a policy of somewhat less than full retention of foreignexchange is optimal in this second-best world.     

EXPORT PROCESSING ZONES: The Economics of Enclave Manufacturing

Export processing zones (EPZS) are economics enclaves withinwhich manufacturing for export occurs under virtual free tradeconditions. Many developing countries have established EPZSin hopes of reaping economic gains through employment, foreignexchange earnings, and technology transfer. This article studiesthe benefits and costs of EPZS in Indonesia, the Republic ofKorea, Malaysia, and the Philippines and reviews the relationshipbetween the welfare effects of EPZS and the host country's economicpolicies. When the domestic economy is distorted, the EPZ conferslimited welfare gains. Nevertheless, EPZS are far from the "enginesof development" that some countries had initially hoped theywould become.      

贸易摩擦、宏观经济波动与经济开放程度的选择

本文构建一个包含关税冲击以及外汇风险溢价的两国开放经济DSGE模型,创新地揭示了关税冲击造成实际汇率波动的“直接效应”与“间接效应”,刻画了关税变动、贸易条件与实际汇率之间的动态关系与作用机制。我们深入分析了不同经济开放程度下贸易摩擦造成的宏观经济波动以及经济福利损失。模拟结果表明,在一定贸易开放程度下,外国加收关税一方面会导致本国贸易条件恶化,引发出口及产出下降;另一方面会导致本国汇率贬值,引发出口及产出增长。关税冲击发生后短期中汇率贬值效应占优,本国产出会出现小幅上升,随后贸易条件恶化效应逐步显现,产出持续下降。福利分析结果表明,本国适度提升贸易开放度,虽然经济福利损失会小幅上升,但福利损失增加幅度小于外国,会在贸易摩擦竞争中形成相对优势;如果本国过度提高贸易开放度,则会导致本国福利损失大幅增加,并且大于外国福利损失增幅,会在贸易摩擦竞争中形成相对劣势。因此,应适度逐步有序地提升贸易开放度。此外,本国适度推进资本账户开放的政策能够改善贸易条件,促进本国经济增长。     

双边出口全球价值链实际有效汇率弹性理论测度及解析

近年来,汇率与出口弱相关现象引起理论界和实务界的广泛关注。本文通过考虑全球价值链带来的供给侧联系和第三国汇率效应,使用双边出口全球价值链实际有效汇率弹性指标对双边层面的相对价格竞争力与出口关系作出新的测度和结构贡献度分解。研究发现,对相对价格竞争力与出口关系修正后测度的双边出口全球价值链实际有效汇率弹性值显著为负。出口对修正的汇率变动依旧富有弹性。“汇率对出口影响弱化”并没有传统实际有效汇率和双边汇率表现的那么严重,更没有出现“贬值抑制出口”等不符合理论预期的反常情况。双边出口全球价值链实际有效汇率弹性结构分解贡献度结果显示,伴随我国在全球价值链中参与度和地位的提升,中国对主要贸易伙伴出口中由相对价格变动引起中间产品结构变动对总弹性的贡献度不断提升。     

企业参与制定国家标准对其出口贸易规模的影响——基于上市公司数据的实证研究

运用面板数据模型,依据制造业中的1796家上市公司样本数据,考量微观层面标准对企业出口规模的影响。结果发现：企业参与制定国家标准可以有效促进出口,并且制定与国际接轨的一致标准比制定国家特有标准更能促进出口。因此,企业宜更多参与国家标准的制定,更多地推动标准层面的国际接轨。     

贸易摩擦、宏观经济波动与经济开放程度的选择

本文构建一个包含关税冲击以及外汇风险溢价的两国开放经济DSGE模型,创新地揭示了关税冲击造成实际汇率波动的“直接效应”与“间接效应”,刻画了关税变动、贸易条件与实际汇率之间的动态关系与作用机制。我们深入分析了不同经济开放程度下贸易摩擦造成的宏观经济波动以及经济福利损失。模拟结果表明,在一定贸易开放程度下,外国加收关税一方面会导致本国贸易条件恶化,引发出口及产出下降;另一方面会导致本国汇率贬值,引发出口及产出增长。关税冲击发生后短期中汇率贬值效应占优,本国产出会出现小幅上升,随后贸易条件恶化效应逐步显现,产出持续下降。福利分析结果表明,本国适度提升贸易开放度,虽然经济福利损失会小幅上升,但福利损失增加幅度小于外国,会在贸易摩擦竞争中形成相对优势;如果本国过度提高贸易开放度,则会导致本国福利损失大幅增加,并且大于外国福利损失增幅,会在贸易摩擦竞争中形成相对劣势。因此,应适度逐步有序地提升贸易开放度。此外,本国适度推进资本账户开放的政策能够改善贸易条件,促进本国经济增长。     

PREFERENTIAL CREDIT AND INSURANCE AS MEANS TO PROMOTE EXPORTS

Rationales for preferential export credit and export creditinsurance are reviewed and several countries' programs are examinedto determine if these preferential programs are appropriateexport promotion instruments for developing countries. Marketfailure is the most compelling rationale for their introductionbut these arguments have not been well articulated and thereis no systematic analysis of the costs of alternative governmentresponses. Industrial countries' programs have histories ofsubsidy while developing countries' preferential programs havenot been significant factors in stimulating exports.      

Exchange rate fluctuations, financing constraints, hedging, and exports: Evidence from firm level data

This paper examines whether exchange rate fluctuations are significantly related to the export quantities of firms. We build a simultaneous structural model with external financing costs, and estimate the model on 14 separate Japanese four-digit level industries. We find that export volumes at the firm level are significantly affected by exchange rate fluctuations. We find higher elasticities of exports with respect to exchange rates than in previous work. Our results cast some doubt on the prevailing wisdom that exchange rates have no effect on trade. Finally, we find in our data that financing constraints play an important role in affecting the sensitivity of exports to exchange rate fluctuations. Firms that are less financially constrained tend to have lower exchange rate elasticities, which is consistent with our model.     

经济政策不确定性如何影响企业出口决策？——基于出口频率的视角

出口频率作为出口决策的重要一环,是企业出口扩张的新边际,也是出口变化的“晴雨表”。本文在随机存货模型的基础上,考察了经济政策不确定性对企业出口频率的影响及其传导渠道,并采用2000-2006年工业企业数据库与海关数据库的匹配数据进行实证检验,结果发现:目的国经济政策不确定性增加会显著降低企业出口频率,且这一影响存在部分惯性效应;经济政策不确定性通过贸易成本、存货成本和市场需求波动共同影响企业出口频率的中介效应十分显著,其中贸易成本是最重要的传导渠道,占比达到19%以上;如果进一步考虑目的国、产品和企业异质性,会发现出口目的国经济发展水平较高、出口产品为中间品和消费品的企业,其出口频率受经济政策不确定性的影响较小。因此,政府和企业应高度关注出口频率的变化趋势,合理应对经济政策不确定性对出口决策的外部冲击。     

中国出口商品结构的历史演变与优化策略

在1980-2005年期间,工业制成品在我国出口中日益占据主导地位,其中,出口主导产品逐渐的由第7类(轻纺产品、橡胶制品矿冶产品及其制品)转变为第8类(机械及运输设备),我国出口商品结构的集中度日益表现位增加的态势,外贸风险问题逐渐凸显。因此,我国应该实施核心技术自主研发战略、实施培育自主出口品牌战略、实施培育自主出口主体战略、实施出口商品多元化战略,进一步优化出口商品结构和缓解出口商品过于集中问题。