Economic Viewpoint:The Medium-term Financial Strategy

A medium-term financial plan was proposed in the October 1977 Economic Outlook. The essential idea was that the government should show that its plans for public expenditure and revenue were consistent with the objective of reducing monetary growth and thereby the rate of inflation in the medium term. The Budget speech of March 26 introduced a Medium-term Financial Strategy. (The word "Plan" is politically unacceptable.) This Viewpoint evaluates the strategy and considers some of the criticisms that have been made of it.     

Economic Viewpoint: The real wage debate

Why is unemployment so high in Britain? Is it because demand is too weak or is it because real wages are too high? Many participants in the debate are trying to insist that it must be one or the other. In practice it is perfectly sensible to believe that both causes are involved, so that a fall in unemployment will require both a rise in demand and a fall in real wages. In this Economic Viewpoint we discuss the economic analysis involved; we investigate some of the relevant evidence and we explore some policy options.     

Economic Viewpoint

The search for a policy device which will yield the benefits of monetary discipline without the pain is as old as it is fruitless, and the central message of this Economic Viewpoint is that going into the EMS will not provide a magic answer to our problems. However we believe that if we go into the EMS at today's rate, and pursue monetary policies consistent with maintaining that rate, the authorities' target of 3 per cent inflation by 1988 is well within reach… Our analysis of the experience of other countries, inside and outside the EMS, over the floating rate period suggests that membership of the EMS should also reduce exchange rate fluctuations and help to create a more stable environment for business planning. However, sterling's vulnerability to oil-related fluctuations cannot be eliminated just by joining the EMS. We therefore suggest that an oil bond, which capitalises the value of our North Sea assets, is created and sold to our EMS partners, thus equalising the exposure to fluctuations in oil prices and removing one major cause of exchange rate instability.     

Economic Viewpoint The Company Sector and the Economic Recovery

Prospects for the economy in the coming years depend largely on whether the private sector will expand activity and increase its employment. The immediate concern is to reverse the falls of output and employment since 1979; the longer-term concern is to generate sustained growth. In the short term. the recovery of output will depend signficantly on whether companies are prepared to rebuild stock levels. In the longer term, a sustained increase in output and employment will require an expansion of the capital stock. In each case what is needed is an increase in company expenditure. Recent experience suggests that such an increase will require a rise in the company sector's income. In this Economic Viewpoint we consider how an increase in the company sector's income and expenditure could be achieved and argue that a cut in the National Insurance Surcharge is a particularly efficient method .     

Economic Viewpoint: Economic Models and Economic Forecasting: Ptolemaic or Copernican?

Economic forecasters have come in for a lot of criticism in recent months. But this is not new. The failure to predict the boom in 1988 and ensuing inflation and balance of payments problems led to some serious re-examination of the structure of the main macroeconometric models in the UK. The speed with which the UK economy moved into sharp recession in the second half of 1990- also appeared to catch most forecasters on the hop. This Briefing Paper is not directly about forecasting; it is about macroeconometric models. However, forecasting provides by far the most extensive use of these models. Not all macroeconomic forecasters use a formal econometric model - some City economists find a spreadsheet more than adequate - but those that do find that they are an invaluable aid to clear thinking and provide an effective way of filtering all of the information that is available, in one form or another, about the economy. This paper was originally intended to provide a retrospective review of the development of UK macro-models since the late 1970s, coinciding broadly with my period at London Business School. However, it became clear that there was a need to argue more generally in favour of macro-modelling, given the numerous assaults that this activity has sustained over the last 15 years. I want to demonstrate that the conduct of research in this area - at the very least in the UK - has been, and continues to be, a progressive research strategy in the sense in which philosophers of science use this term. I believe that macro-modellers, because they have an obligation to forecast and to make the forecast public, are closer to how theoretical constructs in economics conflict with the observation of economic events, and provide a more robust testing ground for economic theories than the relatively narrow - though very important - confines of single equation statistical testing, that dominate academic journals. This should not mean that every new theoretical idea should be expected to be able to survive immediately the rigours of testing within an existing macro-model. One of the attractions of recent developments in macroeconomic theory has been an explicit attempt to seek to try to reconcile macroeconomics with micro-economic reasoning and to derive macroeconomic principles from how rational, maximizing individuals can be expected to behave in a market economy. There is always a need periodically to re-examine the basic postulates of any area of economics, especially one such as macroeconomics, which provides the basis for the conduct of national and international economic policy, and for providing explanations for economic cycles. Macro-econometric model building is a worthwhile exercise because it confronts theoretical models of how the macro-economy is supposed to work with the hard lessons of experience. The use of these models for forecasting is therefore crucial to their continued growth and development.     

Economic Viewpoint The Shape of the UK Recovery

Monthly economic data combined with the more optimistic tone of CBI and other surveys suggest that the recession may be drawing to a close. By the early summer it was becoming apparent that output was no longer falling; now it appears that the economy is in transition front the 'bumping along the bottom' phase, which lasted through the summer months, to the beginnings of a modest recovery in output and demand. The focus of interest is therefore switching away front the timing of recovery towards its shape and strength.
We have previously argued that the recovery would be led by consumer spending, that industry would not resume investment spending un ti1 demand elsewhere was picking up, and that although exports have held up remarkably well, taking some of the strain of the downturn in domestic demand, there was little prospect of a surge in world trade to provide the pre-conditions for an export-led recovery. What was and is needed is a recovery in consumer confidence, with a willingness to borrow at lower interest rates showing up in a reduction in the personal savings ratio.
But the recovery starts with the personal sector still having a large debt overhang from the 1988-9 boom, which will inevitably inhibit new borrowing. Meall while the credit crunch is restricting the ability of banks to lend. Together these imply only a limited response to the interest rate cuts of the last year and would, in the absence of the EMS link with high German interest rates, argue for further interest rate reductions. But high post-unification German rates put a floor under UK rates and will slow the recovery. The economy will do little more in 1992 than make up for the output losses of 1991 and our forecast (as in June) suggests that it will not be until 1993 that previous output peaks are passed and unemployment is stabilized.     

中国油企：夹缝中生存

＂没有其它任何一种原料对国家命运、军事发展和全球贸易战略,以及国家之间的关系有如此重大的影响力;没有其它任何一种原料曾许下提高整个国家福利水平的伟大承诺,然后这种承诺又变成对未来时隐时现的诅咒……,     

Economic Viewpoint: Towards Exchange Rate Stability?

At their recent meeting in Washington the Group of Seven reafirmed their desire to hold exchange rates at about their current level. In this Viewpoint we consider the prospects for success. We conclude that although current rates are feasible in terms of competitiveness, the system will remain under strain as long as there are major inconsistencies between jiscal policy in the US and the rest of the world. The present conjuncture of interest rates and inflation points to a further dollar depreciation. It would be better, in our view, to enact this quickly and to attempt to stabilize exchange rates at sustainable levels: the policy of holding the dollar is misguided.     

Economic Viewpoint: Does broad money matter?

Last October the Chancellor of the Exchequer suspended the target for the broad money supply (£M3). It was reinstated in this year's Budget with a range of 11 to 15 per cent. Its growth is currently exceeding even that apparently generous target. (On the terms of the original Medium-Term Financial Strategy in 1980, the growth should have been cut to 5 to 9 per cent by 1983–4.) Does this rapid growth of £M3 matter? Does it raise the threat of higher inflation some time in the future, or can the government now readily abandon £M3 completely and concentrate instead on some other measure of the money supply – or indeed abandon monetary targeting altogether? The relevance of £M 3 as an intermediate target depends on whether there is a stable demand for it. We report econometric evidence which suggests that there is a stable demand for £M3, which depends, among other things, on the rate of inflation. We believe that the unexpectedly rapid growth of the money supply since 1981 partly reflects an adjustment of desired money balances to lower inflation. But once this process of adjustment is complete, monetary growth must be brought to far lower levels. We conclude that the government should continue to use £M3 as an intermediate target, supported, as at present, by a narrow measure.     

The Dangers of Automobile Travel: A Reconsideration

A bstract .   America's reliance on automobile transportation has attracted the scorn of academics for decades. Automobiles, it is said, are dangerous to life and limb, environmentally unfriendly, and wasteful of space and resources. Moreover, say the critics, automobiles produce inefficient individualistic social behavior that balkanizes communities and shatters the otherwise cohesive nature of American life.
This article examines the costs and benefits of U.S. automobile travel from a historic perspective. First, it compares the safety of automobile travel with the horse and steam-powered travel that preceded it. It then briefly addresses the changes wrought by American automobiles in terms of their impact on American life, economics, social mobility, and ecology. It concludes that the dangers of automobile use are substantially lower than the dangers posed by early horse-driven and steam-driven transportation methods, especially in terms of fatalities per mile. It finds that on a per-mile or per-trip basis, automobile travel is safer than virtually any other means of travel used popularly in U.S. history, and that the other contributions of automobile transportation have been seriously overlooked by transportation scholars.     

Economic Viewpoint: Options for UK policy within the ERM

Although the precise timing of the British government's decision to take sterling into the Exchange Rate Mechanism on 8 October was a surprise, the broad features of the decision were not. Indeed, we argued in the June Economic Viewpoint for entry this autumn with broad 6 per cent bands and a high central rate against the DM, illustrated at DM2.95, precisely in line with the outcome. Now that sterling is in the ERM, the conduct of UK macroeconomic policy is profoundly altered, with changes not just in its technical aspects but also in the balance of the supporting institutions. In this Viewpoint, we explore the map of macroeconomic policy in the post-flouting, ERM context.     

“东方凯恩斯”管仲的经济哲思——浅谈管仲与凯恩斯经济思想之略同

本文以管仲的经济思想为基础,通过对比管仲与凯恩斯在宏观管理和市场经济中类似的经济理论,从而找寻先哲留下的智慧。     

错位金改

金钱永不眠,温州成为金融改革试验区,各路资本伺机而动。不过经过"百日维新",不同利益主体之间依然像耦合欠佳的螺丝,磨擦不断,时常有错位之感。在一向崇尚"自下而上"的温州,本次"自上而下"的变茧能否打通实业与金融间的屏障     

Economic Viewpoint Bringing Counter-Inflation Policy Back on Course

There is no doubt that the monetary limit for the first year of the Government's Medium-Term Financial Strategy will be grossly exceeded, The reported figure for sterling M3 is likely to show a growth of 16 per cent to 18 per cent for the financial year compared with the upper limit of 11 per cent. This is a setback for the government's counter-inflationary policy but not a disaster. The likely overshoot can be largely (but not completely) explained by the removal of the Bank of England's Supplementary Special Deposits Scheme (the corset). Its significance is best understood if we re-examine monetary history since June 1978. (when the corset was imposed). A reasonable interpretation is that the money supply has effectively been growing at an annual rate of 15 to 16 per cent for the past three years (Details are shown in Table 4 on p. 12.) In retrospect it can be said that last year's monetary policy (but not that of the previous two years) was defensible in the light of the shock to prices caused by the oil price rise and the increase in VAT. We did in fact argue in Economic Outlook of June/July 1979 (“Price Shocks and the Economy”) that if the UK'S past record of monetary control had been better we would advocate a relaxation of monetary policy to accommodate these shocks. In the event monetary policy was relaxed (albeit unintentionally) and the squeeze on the real money supply was less severe than appeared at the time. However, there must be a steady reduction in monetary growth from now onwards if the government is to maintain its current progress in reducing inflation. We believe that such a policy is feasible and will be successful However the government must stick to the fiscal policy set out in the Medium Term Financial Strategy (MTFS). Our preliminary estimates suggest that, if Current public expenditure plans are fulfilled, there may be little or no scope for a reduction in personal taxation in 1981-82. Further ahead, the danger point, on past experience, will be 1983 when the economy should be on a strong path of recovery and inflation should be well below current rates. That is the point at which upward pressures on the money supply are likely to reappear and will have to be resisted     

萧灼基畅谈:中国经济发展前景

一、经济全球化是不可逆转的大趋势 经济全球化这个问题是20世纪80年代后出现的,但是经济全球化的进程却是在资本主义制度诞生之后随着资本主义国家不断地向外扩张就不断进行了.所以说,全球化的过程是伴随着资本主义的产生而发展起来的.最早对经济全球化进行理论概括的是马克思和恩格斯,他们在<共产党宣言>中就提到:资产阶级正在用自己的面貌改造世界.那么资产阶级是怎样改造世界的呢?我认为有以下几个方面:     

审计本质的“经济评价论”

关于审计本质,其演变的观点主要有“查账论”、“过程论”、“经济监督论”、“经济控制论”等,这些观点都有其产生和存在的背景。但只从一个侧面回答了审计的一些作用和职能,没有突出现代审计的全面本质特征。本文提出了审计本质应该是“经济评价论”,以此才能深入全面地反映审计的本质。