TOWARDS IMPLEMENTATION OF INFLATION TARGETING IN INDONESIA

The experience of high inflation accompanying the economic crisis in 1998 has brought back painful memories of hyperinflation in the 1960s. Success with inflation targeting (IT) in other countries has prompted Indonesia to consider this framework as the basis for monetary policy,a response that seems justified on at least two grounds. First, monetary policy needs a new anchor after the abandonment in 1997 of the previous regime of managed floating. Second, the central bank law enacted in 1999 prescribes stability of the value of the rupiah as Bank Indonesia's sole objective. This paper explores the future framework of monetary policy under a formal IT approach and highlights the constraints Bank Indonesia faces in implementing such an approach. It discusses the monetary policy framework before and during the crisis, and in the post-crisis period. It then goes on to outline a preliminary design for a suitable IT framework for Indonesia.     

‘Towards improved monetary policy in Indonesia’: a comment

This comment argues that inflation-focused policy is appropriate for Indonesia but that it should be directed at underlying inflation over the medium term. It contends that McLeod's monetarist explanation of inflation in Indonesia is unsatisfactory in theory and is not consistent with the evidence: traded goods prices rose before, and substantially more than, non-traded goods prices during the crisis of 1997–98, which is not consistent with the monetarist view that inflation was caused by excessive base money growth.     

Analysis and Management of Indonesian Money Supply Growth

This paper reviews Indonesia's record of monetary management over the last quarter century, showing that there has been a lack of stability in money growth, and that average growth rates have been higher than is consistent with low inflation. The source of monetary expansion is located primarily in growth of base money, which is here disaggregated into three components reflecting government policy in respect of the budget, the exchange rate, and interest rates, respectively. Exchange rate policy, through its effect on the balance of payments, is shown to have been the main cause of rapid and unstable monetary growth during this period. A contrast is also drawn between the author's preferred technique of analysing monetary movements and the 'accounting approach', based on money formation tables and favoured by previous writers in this field.     

Bank Indonesia and The Recent Crisis

This paper is a personal note describing the crisis as it unfolded while the writer was a key player in Indonesia's macroeconomic management. The crisis is seen as multi-faceted. It originated externally from a shock in the currency market that triggered a downward spiral from currency depreciation to fully-fledged crisis. The currency shock that hit the rupiah in July 1997 exposed in sequence the flaws embedded in the banking sector, the economic system, the social and the political system, flaws that had been obscured by long years of good economic performance. Through a complicated process of contagion and feedback effects—market disturbances, policy responses and market reactions—Indonesia deteriorated from a relatively well managed economy to the “worst case” among the Asian crisis economies. The paper discusses this process, the IMF's role, the bank closure issue, the currency board controversy and the author's dismissal as Governor of Bank Indonesia.     

Causes of Inflation in China： Inflation Expectations

This paper argues that the main causes of inflation in China since the early 21st century are changes in the public's inflation expectations. The conventional wisdom, the quantity theory of money, may not be adequate to capture the relationship between price changes and money supply growth, as the economic system evolves and people's income and wealth grow. An examination of China's GDP deflator and broad money supply relative to nominal GDP shows that the relationship between the two series is relatively weak. A further examination of China's monthly CPI series over the period 2001–2010 reveals that the autoregressive models are a better fit than the moving average models, which suggests that the role of CPI expectations has been significant and important. Because of the importance of inflation expectations in CPI movement, we believe the Central Bank's monetary policy that targets CPI inflation should emphasize the use of policy instruments that have direct and strong communication links with the public. Quantitative measures would have their own use, but their effectiveness would be unlikely to match that of interest rate measures, especially from a short‐term perspective.     

Risks,Resilience, and Reforms: Indonesia’s Financial System in 2019

Indonesia has managed the complex challenges of the global economy well. The country's capital outflows were smaller in 2018 than during the Taper Tantrum in 2013; the rupiah had regained most of its lost ground by January 2019; the Indonesian stock market has outperformed its peers; growth is forecast to remain stable; inflation is low; unemployment remains below its five-year average; consumer and business confidence are robust; and the government budget has improved through a smaller deficit and cheaper borrowing costs. But significant risks remain. This paper assesses these risks and evaluates the adequacy of Indonesia's crisis management framework. It finds that the framework has serious deficiencies that could see liquidity challenges become systemic solvency crises. The framework effectively removes Bank Indonesia as the lender of last resort, risks politicising the process of crisis response, and could mean slower, less effective responses to crises. This paper explores how the framework could be improved and what reforms could be undertaken to deepen Indonesia's financial system, strengthen financial resilience, and boost the long-term growth outlook.     

Post-crisis monetary and exchange rate policies in Indonesia,Malaysia and Thailands

This paper surveys the post-crisis monetary and exchange rate policies of Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. Malaysia has pegged the ringgit while Indonesia and Thailand have adopted heavily managed exchange rates. Under their IMF programs, Thailand and Indonesia set base money targets, but Thailand has moved, and Indonesia is now moving, to inflation targeting, using interest rates as the short-term instrument. Malaysia also sets interest rates. The ability of the three central banks to set interest rates and also pursue an exchange rate target with an interest rate target has been bolstered by restrictions on the internationalisation of the domestic currency. The three central banks have also had to sterilise the monetary effects of their foreign exchange interventions. It is argued that inflation targeting is now a good policy choice, but that a more freely floating exchange rate would be better than sterilisation of balance of payments surpluses or deficits.     

Exchange rate dynamics in Indonesia: 1980–1998

This paper estimates the equilibrium level of the real exchange rate for Indonesia in order to measure the extent of overvaluation of the rupiah at the time of the Asian crisis in 1997. The equilibrium level of the real exchange rate is measured using co-integration approach, unobserved component model and structural vector autoregression (SVAR). The paper uses these models to analyze the developments in the exchange rate policy. None of the models support overvaluation of the rupiah to justify the massive depreciation in 1997.     

Inflation targeting in Indonesia, 1999–2012: an ex-post review

Around the end of 1999, Bank Indonesia (BI) adopted inflation targeting as part of its approach to monetary policy. This article reviews the experience up to 2012, examines BI's performance in hitting its inflation targets and considers certain broader indicators of success. Overall, inflation targeting in Indonesia has been a messy, evolutionary process, and BI's implementation record compares unfavourably with that of its peers. Yet Indonesia recorded a significant downward trend in inflation during this period and maintained strong economic growth. Also, almost all of its inflation-targeting arrangements are now in line with common international practice. Looking ahead, this article offers suggestions for sustaining progress in inflation targeting, such as setting more ambitious targets in the outer years and implementing strong policies to reduce inflation further, including after large administrative price shocks.     

Evidence on the Effects of Money Growth on Inflation with Regime Switching

Since the latter half of 2010, a new round of inflation has gradually been manifesting in China. The debate regarding whether excess money supply is responsible for this inflation has attracted scholars to investigate the effects of money growth on inflation. In this paper, we use correlation analysis to confirm the comovement between growth of monetary aggregates and inflation. We explore the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on inflation using the Markov regime‐switching model. The empirical results show that monetary policy can be more effective in curbing inflation in a high inflation state than in boosting the price level in a low inflation state. However, simply tightening the money supply might not be sufficient to suppress the price level. To this end, the Chinese Government should adopt other policies, such as supply stabilization policies, to help suppress the price level. Our study can help policy‐makers to determine the actual economic state and provides some policy implications for the current inflation.     

Temporary Acceleration of Inflation: What Can a Central Bank Learn from It?

In this article I present a model in which the monetary authority conducts policy by setting money supply in the presence of uncertainty and Bayesian learning about the economic environment. I find that there exists a set of assumptions under which a temporary acceleration of money growth and thus of inflation increases the government's overall expected utility. There also exists a set of assumptions under which a temporary deceleration of money growth and thus of inflation increases the government's overall expected utility.     

The demand for M3 and inflation forecasts: An empirical analysis for Switzerland

The Demand for M3 and Inflation Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis for Switzerland. — This paper argues that money should continue to play an important role in monetary policy even if a central bank pursues a strategy based on inflation forecasts. Within the context of an error correction model, the paper delivers empirical evidence that both the growth rate of the monetary aggregate M3 and the size of excess M3 incorporate useful information with regard to future inflation in Switzerland. This evidence strongly suggests that money should remain an important indicator for monetary policy.     

CAN A RULE‐BASED MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK WORK IN A DEVELOPING COUNTRY? THE CASE OF YEMEN

Monetary policy in Yemen is largely rudimentary and ad hoc in nature. The Central Bank of Yemen's (CBY) approach has been based on discretionary targeting of broad money without any clear target to anchor inflation expectations. This paper argues in favor of a new formal monetary policy framework for Yemen emphasizing a proactive and rule‐based approach with a greater direct focus on price stability in the context of a flexible management of the exchange rate. Although, as in many developing countries, institutional capacity is a concern, adopting a more formal framework could impel the kind of changes that are required to strengthen the ability of the CBY in achieving low and stable rates of inflation over the medium term.     

Navigating the trilemma: Capital flows and monetary policy in China

In recent years China has faced an increasing trilemma—how to pursue an independent domestic monetary policy and limit exchange rate flexibility, while at the same time facing large and growing international capital flows. This paper analyzes the impact of the trilemma on China's monetary policy as the country liberalizes its good and financial markets and integrates with the world economy. It shows how China has sought to insulate its reserve money from the effects of balance of payments inflows by sterilizing through the issuance of central bank liabilities. However, we report empirical results indicating that sterilization dropped precipitously in 2006 in the face of the ongoing massive buildup of international reserves, leading to a surge in reserve money growth.We also estimate a vector error correction model linking the surge in China's reserve money to broad money, real GDP, and the price level. We use this model to explore the inflationary implications of different policy scenarios. Under a scenario of continued rapid reserve money growth (consistent with limited sterilization of foreign exchange reserve accumulation) and strong economic growth, the model predicts a rapid increase in inflation. A model simulation using an extension of the framework that incorporates recent increases in bank reserve requirements also implies a rapid rise in inflation. By contrast, model simulations incorporating a sharp slowdown in economic growth such as that seen in late 2008 and 2009 lead to less inflation pressure even with a substantial buildup in international reserves.     

Indonesian Monetary Policy During the 1997–98 Crisis: A Monetarist Perspective

This paper defends the IMF's strategy of targeting base money (M0) in 1997–98 against the criticism by Grenville (2000) that it was destined to fail because M0 is mainly demand determined and the demand for it was increased by a large and unpredictable amount by the banking panic. Grenville contends that Indonesian monetary policy should have aimed at domestic price stability. It is argued here that the growth of M0 far exceeded what could be justified by last resort lending to accommodate the banking panic, and that rapid inflation could only have been avoided by preventing most of the expansion of the public's cash holding that actually occurred. Achieving a modest target for domestic inflation would not therefore have been very different in practice from setting tight limits on the growth of M0. In contrast, both these policies would have been very different from the loss of control over M0 that actually occurred.     

Manufacturing in India and Indonesia: performance and policies

Since the global financial crisis of 2008, the world has been riveted by China's rapid growth and its contribution to the global recovery. But less attention has been paid to India and Indonesia – Asia's two other giants – which also displayed resilience during the crisis and show promise of sustaining this performance. Also remarkable are their geographical, historical and cultural proximity; notwithstanding their differences, these two countries are alike in many respects and face similar challenges, as reflected in their emerging policy priorities. China's large size and rapid growth may have absorbed the attention of Indian and Indonesian policy makers, but this paper argues that a comparative approach to the issues that both countries face can yield interesting insights and provide potential solutions to their development challenges.     

Effect of Money Supply on Real Output and Price in China

Over the past 30 years, China has achieved remarkable long-term economic growth. Using quarterly data, we study the effects of money supply on real output and inflation in China between 1993 and 2008. To this end, we use money supply shocks afler filtering out the expected component of the money supply. Our findings provide evidence supporting the asymmetric effect of positive and negative money supply shocks on real output and inflation in China. That is, real GDP growth in China responds to negative money supply shocks but not positive money supply shocks. In addition, inflation responds to positive money supply shocks but not negative money supply shocks. We conclude that the People＇s Bank of China＇ s policy of steady monetary growth appears to be appropriate. Our study offers important policy implications for China.     

Survey of recent developments

Little has happened to dispel concern that reform momentum is dissipating. New National Economic and Innovation Committees to help accelerate development will probably achieve little: resolving many key economic policy issues is straightforward technically, so the real obstacle to doing so is lack of political will and leadership.

It appears that economic growth has stabilised rather than continuing to accelerate. Investment is still strong, but fiscal policy is no longer providing a stimulus. Soeharto-era attachment to small budget deficits remains evident in the 2011 budget, which persists in spending heavily on subsidies at the expense of investment in sorely needed infrastructure. The demand for net exports had temporarily constrained growth, but by Q2 2010 this was no longer the case. Manufacturing has been in the doldrums, partly because of surging export commodity prices and volumes, but its recent growth seems more promising. International reserves continue to accumulate because of the commitment of Bank Indonesia (BI) to avoiding rupiah appreciation, which makes monetary policy difficult and costly to implement. BI has responded by allowing some appreciation, an acceleration of inflation and a small increase in the interest rate on its certificates of deposit, and by forcing banks to place more funds with it at low or zero interest. At last it has begun to tighten monetary policy, but this is likely to increase capital inflow, despite the introduction of a new capital control. The incompatibility of BI's monetary and exchange rate policies will therefore continue to cause problems. Rapid rice price inflation, however, is not the fault of the central bank, but a consequence of the policy of preventing Indonesia from participating more fully in the world rice market.

Official indicators suggest that the banking sector is in good condition. One concern is that interest margins are too high, which seems to be attributable to inefficiency in government-owned banks. If pressure to prevent or roll back increased foreign ownership of Indonesian banks is successful, this is likely to make the banking system even less efficient. Indonesia continues to have difficulty competing for foreign investment with comparator countries such as Thailand, Vietnam and Brazil: much remains to be done to improve the climate for doing business. The government appears to be pondering more serious approaches to tackling the problem of Jakarta's congestion, although conflicting signals on this have emerged. Solutions are seen in expansion of transport infrastructure and improvement of its management, and in the introduction of electronic tolling on main roads.     

Why is Inflation in China a Monetary Phenomenon？

This paper proposes that inflation in China during the post‐reform era (1978 onwards) is always a monetary phenomenon. We construct a multivariate dynamic model based on Friedman's quantity theory of money and use the standard Granger causality test to show that money growth contains significant predictive power for inflation during the underlying period. The finding is robust to alternative measures of monetary aggregates and both closed and open economy frameworks. The baseline finding of the paper indicates that quantitative tools remain the most important policy instruments for China to manage its inflation effectively.     

On the conduct of monetary policy in Vietnam

Vietnam has the highest inflation rate in Southeast Asia (over 20 per cent year‐on‐year in 2011). This paper examines the extent to which inflation in Vietnam is due to its conduct of monetary policy. It is argued that, had the central bank implemented policy on a more timely basis, inflation would not have been as high as it was, but the more fundamental problem is that the central bank does not have the tools it needs to conduct monetary policy effectively. Monetary policy is further complicated by Vietnam's exchange rate policy. By choosing to peg the currency and maintain fairly free capital mobility, the country has all but given up the ability to pursue an independent monetary policy. As a consequence, the central bank is forced to attempt to sterilise its foreign exchange interventions, which it is ill‐equipped to do. The paper argues that financial sector liberalisation is needed not only to promote growth but also to maintain macroeconomic stability.