Real interest rate parity in East Asian countries based on China with flexible Fourier stationary test

This study applies stationary test with a flexible Fourier function proposed by Enders and Lee (2012) to test the validity of long-run real interest rate parity (RIRP) to assess the non-stationary properties of the real interest rate convergence relative to China for ten East Asian countries. We find that our approximation has higher power to detect U-shaped breaks and smooth breaks than linear method if the true data generating process of interest rate convergence is in fact a stationary non-liner process. We examine the validity of RIRP from the non-linear point of view and provide robust evidence clearly indicate that RIRP holds true for ten East Asian countries. It implies that the choices and effectiveness of the monetary and fiscal policies in the East Asian economies will be highly influenced external factors originating from China. Also, our findings point out their real interest rate convergence relative to China is mean reversion towards RIRP equilibrium values in a non-linear way.     

Some stability results for Markovian economic semigroups

The present paper studies existence, uniqueness and stability of stationary equilibrium distributions in a class of stochastic dynamic models common to economic analysis. We provide applications to a heterogeneous agent model and two nonlinear multisector time series models with unbounded state space.     

Are Real GDP Levels Stationary in African Countries?

In this study, we apply flexible Fourier stationary unit root test proposed by Enders and Lee (2012) to assess the non‐stationary properties of the per capita real gross domestic product (GDP) for 32 African countries. We find that Fourier stationary unit root test has higher power than linear method if the true data‐generating process of per capita real GDP is in fact a stationary nonlinear process of an unknown form with structural change using the low frequency components. We investigate the stationarity of per capita real GDP from the nonlinear point of view and provide robust evidence that clearly indicates that real output is well characterised by a nonlinear, mean‐reverting process, namely Benin, Botswana, Burundi, Cameroon, Senegal, Sierra Leone and South Africa. Our evidence points that these seven countries are nonlinear stationary, implying that per capita real GDP follows a steady rate of growth, and policy innovations then have temporary effects. These results have important policy implications for African countries.     

PURCHASING POWER PARITY WITH RANK TESTS FOR NONLINEAR COINTEGRATION IN AFRICAN COUNTRIES

This study applies nonlinear cointegration to assess exchange rates with the corresponding relative prices and aggregate price levels for 20 African countries. We find that a nonparametric rank test has higher power than parametric testing procedures; a true data‐generating process of exchange rate is in fact a stationary nonlinear process. We examine the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) from the nonparametric nonlinear point of view and provide robust evidence that clearly indicates PPP holds true for these countries. Hence, the long‐run African countries exchange rate adjustments are in equilibrium with the relevant fundamentals as suggested by the PPP hypothesis in a nonlinear way.     

Long-Run Economic Performance and the Labor Market

This article uses a simple variation of the Solow model to study the interrelations between economic growth and the labor market. We show, both analytically and empirically, that income and capital per worker in the steady state depend positively on flexibility of the labor market; that the steady-state unemployment rate depends positively on the rate of population growth and the productivity growth rate and negatively on the savings rate and flexibility of the labor market; and, finally, that labor market flexibility affects convergence toward steady state.     

Sunspots and Hopf bifurcations in continuous time endogenous growth models

First we treat a three-dimensional continuous time abstract stationary model that includes one predetermined variable and two non-predetermined variables. We construct stationary sunspot equilibria in this model under the following two alternative conditions: (i) a steady state has two stable roots and one unstable root; and (ii) A closed orbit has a two-dimensional manifold on which it is asymptotically stable. Next, we apply these results to the models due to Lucas and Romer that undergo Hopf bifurcations for some parameter values. We construct sunspot equilibria in these models.     

分成制教育金融制度模拟实证研究——以分成租佃制为借鉴

信息不对称理论是分成制教育金融制度的理论基础。分成租佃制的运行,为分成制教育金融制度提供了实践上的证明。文章选取回报率较高的特定投资对象为例,模仿分成租佃制下的投资回收分析方法,探讨了纯“分成制”下的分成比例状况。研究表明,教育金融契约的性质选择与期限选择,都会影响契约主体的“风险-收益”评价。这一结论,是在一定的假定下得出的。分成制的大面积实施还有赖于放松假定,不断出产趋于实际的研究成果。     

SOURCES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER IN SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA1

This paper provides some empirical evidence on the sources of growth in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). Within the classical convergence framework, several macroeconomic, socio and political factors are identified as affecting the steady state growth paths of the SSA countries. The rejection of the constant technology growth rate assumption implied by the linearised Solow‐Swan growth specification suggests differences in the economies' technology growth rates. An endogenous technology growth model is estimated to measure contributions of diminishing returns and technology transfer to the rate of conditional convergence in the region. The results carry important policy implications for improving the standard of living and economic growth rate of African countries.     

Negishi–Solow efficiency wages, unemployment insurance and dynamic deterministic indeterminacy

This paper introduces efficiency wages designed to provide workers with incentives to make appropriate effort levels, and involuntary unemployment, along the pioneering lines of Negishi (1979) , Solow (1979) and Shapiro and Stiglitz (1984) , in a dynamic model involving heterogeneous agents and financial constraints as in Woodford (1986) and Grandmont et al. (1998) . Effort varies continuously while there is unemployment insurance funded out of taxation of labor incomes. Increasing unemployment insurance is beneficial to employment along the deterministic stationary state, and can even in some cases lead to a Pareto welfare improvement for all agents, through general equilibrium effects, by generating higher individual real labour incomes, hence larger consumptions of employed and unemployed workers, and thus higher production. In contrast, the local (in)determinacy properties of the stationary state are opposite to those obtained in the competitive specification of the model: local determinacy (indeterminacy) occurs for elasticities of capital-efficient labor substitution lower (larger) than a quite small bound. Increasing unemployment insurance is more likely to lead to local indeterminacy and, therefore, to generate dynamic inefficiencies due to the corresponding expectations coordination failures.     

Have Air Pollutant Emissions Converged Among U.S. Regions? Evidence from Unit Root Tests

Previous studies of income distribution have found evidence indicating that incomes across U.S. regions have converged, supporting the prediction of the neoclassical growth model. A potential shortcoming in these studies is that only one measure of well-being is considered—a measure of wealth linked to incomes or production. This paper examines whether income convergence was accompanied by air pollutant emission convergence. Results from unit root tests provide some evidence that indicators of environmental quality have converged across U.S. regions during the 1929-1994 period.     

A nonlinear pairwise approach for the convergence of UK regional house prices

We examine the long-run convergence across 12 UK regional house prices using a pairwise approach. The time period spans from 1983:1 to 2012:4. Linear, nonlinear and asymmetric unit root tests are considered for assessing the stationarity of all possible pairs. The test statistic for convergence is based on the percentage of unit root test rejections across all regional house price differentials. The percent of the pairs that reject the null increase from 6% in the linear ADF case to 53% for the nonlinear unit root. Probit analysis reveals that house price differentials in the South are more likely to be stationary and as a result tend to converge more compared to the North.     

Endogenous capital utilization in a neoclassical growth model

This paper introduces a variable rate of capital utilization and depreciation into a modified Ramsey-type neoclassical growth model via the well-known concept of pure user cost. The optimal utilization rate is found to be determined by the opportunity cost of holding capital or the net real interest rate. As a consequence, this rate may vary in the short run, so total services of capital become a control rather than a state variable. Furthermore, the introduction of a variable utilization rate yields a slower rate of convergence toward the steady state, inducing more persistence in the transitional dynamics. To illustrate how the endogenous choice of utilization acts on the system, some simulations are carried out, including the transition period when there is a temporary fall in the exogenous real interest rate.     

产业融合产生过程的模型研究

根据自组织理论,产业融合产生的过程以融合型产品出现为标志,分为从无到有、从出现到实现两个阶段。文章结合单个产业发展模型,构建了产业融合产生过程的数学模型,并在此基础上运用数值模拟统计软件对产业融合产生过程的模型进行了验证。文章认为,产业融合模型的合理性及融合型产品的替代效应在产业融合的实现过程中起着关键作用。     

TESTING FOR PPP USING SADC REAL EXCHANGE RATES

This paper attempts to provide evidence indicating that the purchasing power parity (PPP) puzzle is becoming less of a puzzle. It present the results of Augmented Dickey–Fuller test, non-linear tests of non-stationarity and Bayesian unit root tests, applied to 10 Southern African Development Community countries. The Bayesian tests were found to be biased in favour of a trend stationary model in all cases. It is argued that non-linear approaches to exchange rate adjustments are likely to provide a firmer basis for inference and stronger support for the PPP in the long-term. This is more so at 1 and 5% levels of significance.     

Long-run consequences of finite exchange rate bubbles

This paper draws on the literature on exchange rate instability and on sunk-cost hysteresis to analyze the long-run effects of exchange rate bubbles. To address the issue, after discussing the implications of sunk-cost hysteresis for aggregate supply, we propose two versions of the Dornbusch (1976) model of exchange rate determination. We modify it so as to allow for endogenous adjustment in productive capacity, with the aggregate investment function being linear with respect to the exchange rate in one version and non-linear in the other. For both versions, we provide solutions for a Blanchard-type bubble developing on the foreign exchange market. We find that, if capacity adjusts non-linearly, such a bubble will affect the steady state of the economy.     

An empirical investigation of forces influencing productivity and the rate of convergence among states

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the productivity performance of state economies in the U.S. over the past two decades and, in particular, to identify the degree to which convergence has occurred in productivity. A key element of this analysis is the identification of the contribution of factor inputs, as well as human capital, gender composition of employment, and shifting industrial mix by state during the period 1969–88. The findings provide strong evidence of convergence even when controlling for other factors.     

Persistence in U.S. State Unemployment Rates

Romero‐Ávila and Usabiaga (2007) find that many U.S. state unemployment rates are stationary, a result at odds with the traditional view that unemployment rates are path‐dependent and subject to shocks that have permanent effects. They base their results on multivariate unit root tests that provide for two breaks in mean. This note extends the analysis to directly examine whether the series were fractionally integrated. When no allowance is made for breaking means, the results suggest evidence in favor of hysteresis, an outcome that generally applies when one break in mean is considered. Allowing for two breaks demonstrates that the evidence in favor of the natural rate and the hysteresis hypotheses is temporally sensitive.     

Price convergence among Indian cities: A cointegration approach

Price dynamics in Indian cities were examined using cointegration analysis. We identified and calculated a common trend for prices in 25 major cities in India. Impulse response functions were obtained to calculate the rates of convergence to the prices and we found that the half-life of any shock is very small for Indian cities. Although a close to 3-month half-life seems too fast, there is some indication in the literature that half-life can be much smaller than the conventional rates of 3–5 years. We have calculated half-life using the panel unit root method, and found that estimates of half-life from cointegration analysis provide a faster convergence rate than estimates using the panel unit root method. We also analyzed how shock can be transmitted from one city to another and found no systematic behavior of transmission from one city to another.     

Indeterminacy in a forward-looking regime switching model

This paper considers the properties of Markov switching rational expectations (MSRE) models. We discuss possible solution concepts for MSRE models, distinguishing between stationary and bounded equilibria. For the case of models with one variable we provide a necessary and sufficient condition for uniqueness of a bounded equilibrium and we relate this condition to an alternative, the "generalized Taylor principle," suggested by Davig and Leeper. We provide examples of models with multiple bounded and multiple stationary equilibria which suggest that it might be more difficult to rule out non-fundamental equilibria in MSRE models than in the single regime case where the Taylor principle is known to guarantee local uniqueness.     

Cultural transmission, socialization and the population dynamics of multiple-trait distributions

This paper studies the population dynamics of multiple preference traits in a model of intergenerational cultural transmission. Parents socialize and transmit their preferences to their children with endogenous intensities. Populations concentrated on a single cultural group are in general not stable. There is a unique stable stationary distribution, and it supports two or more cultural groups, in particular those with greater intolerance with respect to others' traits. The larger the heterogeneity of intolerance levels across cultural groups, the smaller the number of traits that are supported in the stable stationary distribution.