西南地区农业生态和经济系统协调发展分析

[目的]对西南地区农业生态经济系统进行评价,了解西南地区农业生态系统与经济系统协调度。[方法]根据我国西南地区5个省、直辖市和自治区的相关数据,建立西南地区农业生态经济系统评价指标体系,通过耦合模型对西南地区农业生态系统与经济系统协调度进行评价分析。[结果]当前我国西南地区在农业生态系统与经济系统的协调度处于中度协调水平,且耦合类型处于勉强调和协调,整体上西南地区农业生态经济系统在协调状况上相对乐观;从西南地区农业生态系统与经济系统两者对比关系看,除重庆市属于经济严重滞后型外,四川、云南、贵州省以及西藏自治区均属于经济极度滞后型。[结论]我国西南地区在农业生态系统与经济系统协调度上整体处于中度协调水平,农业经济发展均比较滞后,我国西部地区应继续注重农业生态保护,并加快农业经济发展,积极推进农业生态与经济系统协调发展。     

Measuring soil quality dynamics A role for economists, and implications for economic analysis

Measuring soil quality is extremely difficult, yet it has clear economic importance. In particular, there is a great deal of empirical interest in the dynamics of soil quality evolution when land managers respond to policies and other incentives. Yet current methodologies for measuring changes in agricultural land quality are largely static and rely heavily either on incomplete measures such as proxy variables, or ad hoc indexes of selected soil characteristics. Moreover, much empirical work relies on static econometric techniques or simulation models. In this paper, we develop a means to infer soil quality changes from input and output data using a dynamic production function model. Using data from field experiments, we estimate the model in a way that allows the recovery of a dynamic measure of soil quality whose evolution depends on variations in management practices. Our methodology and findings will help provide firmer empirical foundations for analyses of the economic implications of land degradation and the soil quality implications of agricultural policies.     

农业生产风险对区域经济的影响分析

[目的]农业作为国民经济的基础产业对区域经济的发展至关重要,两者之间存在相互影响和相互制约的耦合关系。文章通过对作用于农业生产活动的主要因子对区域经济的影响研究,以期筛选出两者相互作用的关键因子,为规避或降低农业生产风险、协调经济发展提供理论基础。[方法]通过选取作用于农业生产活动的36个作用因子,对农业生产风险因子对区域经济的影响程度进行综合评分,采用层次分析法分析各指标对农业生产与区域经济影响的重要程度。[结果](1)市场需求量、农民人均纯收入、农业机械化总动力、市场价格动态、农作物种类和面积、农药化肥施用量、农田有效灌溉面积、单位耕地面积粮食产量、干旱、温度、洪涝、农业机械自动化、交通运输条件、农业信息化、农业技术推广程度等是重要性排序为前15位的风险因子。(2)随着农业机械自动化、农业信息化和农业技术推广程度的进步,干旱、温度和洪涝等风险因子对农业生产造成的产量风险随之降低。而市场需求、市场价格动态等对农业生产的作用风险在扩大,特别是在区域经济发展不稳定、发展不平衡的情况下更为突出。(3)政府财政对农业的投入、投资的规模和结构以及对农产品价格和流通的干预则影响到农业生产经营、地区生产总值和GDP的增长速率;且农业资源利用程度、栽培环境的保护以及农业环境污染的保护和治理则是区域经济可持续发展的重点。[结论]通过测度不同评价指标对农业生产的影响程度,指出作用于区域经济的关键风险因子,对降低和规避农业风险,协调农业与区域经济的稳定、可持续发展具有重要意义。     

Evaluation of external market effects and government intervention in Malaysia's agricultural sector: A computable general equilibrium framework

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effects of changes in the external trade environment and domestic economic policies on the agricultural development of Malaysia. The scope of this research also includes providing further insights into the strengths and weaknesses of the computable general equilibrium (CGE) methodology for agricultural policy analysis. The first analysis focuses on the export agriculture sector which encompasses Malaysia's two primary agricultural commodities, rubber and palm oil. Heavily dependent on exports of rubber in the 1950s and 1960s, Malaysia has since built a more diversified economy with strong emphasis on manufacturing. Export agriculture, however, is still an important component of the national economy. The second objective examines the influence of domestic policy on agricultural development. The simulation results demonstrate the growing resiliency of the Malaysian economy to external shocks. Also, they point to the domestic economy's ability to buffer internal Policy-induced distortions.     

Markets and pro-poor agricultural growth: insights from livelihood and informal rural economy models in Malawi

This article presents the development of a set of programming models describing the major features of different rural livelihoods and of the informal rural economy they together make up in Malawi. The models allow for differentiated responses by different household types to change and for the partial equilibrium effects of consequent supply, demand, and price adjustments in labor and grain markets. The models provide insights into the relations between own‐farm and nonown‐farm activities in different households' livelihoods and in the informal rural economy as a whole, and are used to investigate possible impacts of increasing cash crop prices and of a more open rural economy. Impacts of these changes on the poor are found to be critically dependent upon supply and demand elasticities in labor and grain markets, but the poor could potentially suffer significant losses from increased openness of the local economy leading to increased expenditure by less poor households on imported goods and services.     

Agricultural exports and economic growth in less developed countries

This article examines the contribution of agricultural exports to economic growth in less developed countries (LDCs). A sources‐of‐growth equation is developed from a dual economy model where agricultural and nonagricultural sectors are both divided into export and nonexport subsectors. This is then estimated using panel data for 62 LDCs for 1974–1995. Results provide evidence that there are significant structural differences in economic growth between low, lower‐middle, and upper‐income LDCs. Investment in the agricultural export subsector has a statistically identical impact on economic growth as investment in the nonagricultural export subsector. The marginal productivities in nonexport subsectors are over 30% lower than those in respective export subsectors. From a policy perspective, the results suggest that export‐promotion policies should be balanced.     

Productivity growth, catching-up and uncertainty in China''s meat trade

The potential role of China as a major importer of agricultural products, and the likely impact on world markets has been a topic of considerable debate over the past decade. In this paper, we focus specifically on the livestock sector and develop a detailed analysis of productivity growth in China’s pig and poultry production along with projections of China’s likely meat trade in the year 2010. We use a general equilibrium model which permits us to explore the sensitivity of our projections to macro-economic uncertainty as well as uncertainty in livestock productivity growth rates. Our analysis shows that China’s net trade position is very sensitive to both of these factors. With high livestock productivity growth and a slow-down in the rest of the economy, China could be a substantial competitor in export markets by 2010. On the other hand, slow productivity growth in livestock production, coupled with a rapidly growing macro-economy could transform China into a major market for future meat exports.     

Supply and demand estimates for feed grains in China

In the past two decades, the use of grain to feed livestock in China has increased rapidly. A number of studies have examined demand and supply of grain for animal feed in China. Forecasts have been made. Generally, these projections have turned out to be well wide of the actual supply and demand. Further, forecasts of supply and demand for feed grains for the same time periods have differed greatly. Accurate forecasts of variables affecting supply and demand benefit both producers and consumers. Past forecasts of supply and demand of feed grain for livestock production in China are reviewed and reasons for discrepancies between projections are explored. Ways to improve projections of demand for and supply of grain for livestock feed in China are identified.     

Macro–micro feedback links of water management in South Africa: CGE analyses of selected policy regimes

The pressure on an already stressed water situation in South Africa is predicted to increase significantly under climate change, plans for large industrial expansion, ongoing rapid urbanization, and government programs to provide access to water to millions of previously excluded populations. This article employs a general equilibrium approach to examine the economy‐wide impacts of selected macro and water‐related policy reforms on water use and allocation, rural livelihoods, and economy at large. The analyses reveal that implicit crop‐level water quotas reduce the amount of irrigated land allocated to higher‐value horticultural crops and create higher shadow rents for production of lower‐value water‐intensive field crops, such as sugarcane and fodder. Accordingly, liberalizing local water allocation within irrigation agriculture is found to work in favor of higher‐value crops, and expand agricultural production and exports and farm employment. Allowing for water trade between irrigation and nonagricultural uses fuelled by higher competition for water from urbanization leads to greater water shadow prices for irrigation water with reduced income and employment benefits to rural households and higher gains for nonagricultural households. The analyses show difficult trade‐offs between general economic gains and higher water prices, which place serious questions on subsidizing water supply to irrigated agriculture, i.e., making irrigation subsidies much harder to justify.     

Agricultural growth and poverty in an archetypical middle income country: Chile 1987–2003

Is a reduced share of agriculture in the economy an obstacle for the agricultural sector to play an important role in poverty alleviation? What is the key channel, if any, by which agriculture is benefiting the poor in Chile that would be worthwhile to promote in other countries? By answering these questions we expand the literature on poverty and composition of growth by proposing a methodology that allows to disentangle the mechanisms by which agricultural growth can be poverty reducing. We find that in Chile agriculture plays a large role in reducing poverty, and most of this effect is channeled through the labor market.     

Biodiversity Conservation and Productivity in Intensive Agricultural Systems

This paper explores the economic effects of biodiversity loss on marketable agricultural output for intensive agricultural systems, which require an increasing level of artificial capital inputs. A theoretical bio‐economic model is used to derive a hypothesis about the effect of the state of biodiversity on the optimal crop output both in the longer run and in the transitional path towards the steady‐state equilibrium. The hypothesised positive relationship between biodiversity stock and optimal levels of crop output is empirically tested using a stochastic production frontier approach, based on data from a panel of UK specialised cereal farms for the period 1989–2000. The results support the theoretical hypothesis. Increases in biodiversity can lead to a continual outward shift in the output frontier (although at a decreasing rate), controlling for the relevant set of labour and capital inputs. Agricultural transition towards biodiversity conservation may be consistent with an increase in crop output in already biodiversity‐poor modern agricultural landscapes.     

The growing importance of the former USSR countries in world agricultural markets

The major countries of the former Soviet Union—specifically Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan—are becoming increasingly important in world agricultural markets. The two main developments are that this region has become a large grain exporter, especially of wheat and barley, and Russia a big agricultural importer, especially of meat. These trends should continue for the next decade. However, policies to expand the livestock sector could mitigate these developments, as increased domestic meat production would reduce both meat imports and surplus feed grain for export. Also, further growth in the region's grain exports will require improvement in the infrastructure for storing and transporting grain.     

Impacts of considering climate variability on investment decisions in Ethiopia

Extreme interannual variability of precipitation within Ethiopia is not uncommon, inducing droughts or floods and often creating serious repercussions on agricultural and nonagricultural commodities. A dynamic climate module is integrated into an economy‐wide model containing a detailed zonal level agricultural structure. This coupled climate‐economic model is used to evaluate the effects of climate variability on prospective irrigation and infrastructure investment strategies, and the ensuing country‐wide economy. The linkages between the dynamic climate module and the economic model are created by the introduction of a climate‐yield factor (CYF), defined at the crop level and varied across Ethiopian zones. Nine sets of variable climate (VC) data are processed by the coupled model, generating stochastic wet and dry shocks, producing an ensemble of potential economic prediction indicators. Analysis of gross domestic product and poverty rate reveal a significant overestimation of the country's future welfare under all investment strategies when climate variability is ignored. The coupled model ensemble is further utilized for risk assessment to guide Ethiopian policy and planning.     

The economic role of Russia's subsistence agriculture in the transition process

In this article, we analyze the role of subsistence‐oriented agriculture in Russia in the 1990s. We start out by discussing the diverging economic effects of the growth of subsistence agriculture in Russia since the transition process started. The quantitative analysis of this sector's role is carried out by means of an applied computable general equilibrium (CGE) model applying a 1994 social accounting matrix (SAM) as base year data. The novelty of the article is to disaggregate primary agricultural production not by products but by farm types, which enables us to distinguish their institutional and economic characteristics. The model also explicitly differentiates between marketed and subsistence consumption or formal and informal marketing activities of agricultural producers. We simulate two ex post and two ex ante experiments. The results of the first backward‐looking experiment highlight that Russia's subsistence agriculture was an important buffer against further agricultural output declines during transition and, hence, against food insecurity. A simulation, which looks into the effects of a devaluation of the Russian ruble, shows that the financial crisis should have increased the relative competitiveness particularly of large‐scale crop farms versus small‐scale farms. Two forward‐looking experiments indicate that efficiency enhancing institutional change would benefit both large‐scale and small‐scale farms. However, within small‐scale agriculture, a shift from subsistence to commercial agriculture would take place.     

我国农业生态经济系统耦合协调发展研究

[目的]探索我国农业生态系统与农业经济系统的协调发展规律,为中国农业生态与农业经济健康有序协同发展的政策制定提供智力支持。[方法]通过构建农业生态系统与农业经济系统综合评价指标体系,运用熵值法确定各指标权重,基于2004—2017年全国统计数据,借助耦合协调度模型,计算出农业生态系统和农业经济系统的发展得分,再分析农业生态系统与经济系统发展的耦合协调关系。[结果]2004—2017年中国农业生态与经济发展综合水平整体均呈现上升趋势,农业生态系统得分始终高于农业经济发展得分;两系统的耦合度处于较高水平,耦合协调度逐年上升,协调程度从中度协调过渡到极度协调。[结论]加快创新驱动发展,发展“产品品质高、经济效益高、生态环境友好”的高质量农业,优化财政支农机构、重点支持具有生态正向外部性的项目。加强环境规制力度,以绿色发展路径实现农业生态与经济的协同。     

粮食安全视域下黄河流域农业生态经济耦合协调发展及驱动机制研究

目的 黄河流域构成中国重要的生态屏障，也是农业经济开发的重点地区，研究其农业生态经济系统的耦合协调性，对维护国家粮食安全、促进黄河流域可持续发展具有重要作用。方法 文章以黄河流域60个城市为研究对象，采用熵权法、耦合协调度模型、灰色关联度模型定量分析了农业生态系统与农业经济系统的综合评价指数、耦合协调度及其驱动机制。结果 2008—2020年黄河流域农业生态系统、农业经济系统的综合评价指数均值呈上升变化态势，两者的对比关系由“经济滞后型”演变为“生态滞后型”。耦合协调水平总体随时间增长，由轻度失调转为濒临失调，空间上表现为下游>中游>上游的分布格局。驱动因素的作用强度按农业现代化水平、城镇化水平、农业经济发展水平、区域本底条件、人类活动强度、政策管理决策的次序递减，并共同推动生成了驱动机制。结论 黄河流域农业生态经济的耦合协调程度仍有待提升，今后将针对典型地区的具体情况对农业生态经济耦合协调的内在机制、实现路径开展研究。     

An interdisciplinary approach to regional land use analysis using GIS, with applications to the Atlantic Zone of Costa Rica

Policy makers and other stakeholders concerned with regional rural development increasingly face the need for instruments that can improve transparency in the policy debate and that enhance understanding of opportunities for and limitations to development. To this end, a methodology called SOLUS (Sustainable Options for Land Use) was developed by an interdisciplinary team of scientists over a 10-year period in the Atlantic Zone of Costa Rica. The main tools of SOLUS include a linear programming (LP) model, two expert systems that define technical coefficients for a large number of production activities, and a geographic information system (GIS). A five-step procedure was developed for GIS to spatially reference biophysical and economic parameters, to create input for the expert systems and the LP model, to store and spatially reference model output data, and to create maps of both model input and output data. SOLUS can be used to evaluate the potential effects of alternative policies and incentive structures on the performance of the agricultural sector. A number of practical applications demonstrate SOLUS's capability to quantify trade-offs between economic objectives (income, employment) and environmental sustainability (soil nutrient balances, pesticide use, greenhouse gas emissions). GIS-created maps visualize the spatial aspects of such trade-offs and indicate hotspots where local goals may conflict with regional goals.     

Estimating the economic cost of weeds in Australian annual winter crops

An analysis of the annual costs of weeds in seven winter crops across Australia demonstrated that the most important 15 weed species cause substantial annual costs in both financial and economic terms. Using survey data captured over the 1998–1999 growing season, the financial cost of these weeds in seven crops was estimated to be AU$1,182 million. The main components of this cost were herbicides (AU$571 million), the competitive effects of residual weeds (AU$380 million), and tillage (AU$206 million) while weed contamination of grain was a minor cost (AU$25 million). Across all regions, the most economically important weeds were annual ryegrass, wild oats, and wild radish, although there were regional differences in importance. An economic surplus analysis determined the annual economic cost of weeds in annual winter crops to be AU$1,279 million. This surplus loss represented 17% of the gross value of Australian grain and oilseed production in 1998–1999. Australian grain producers incurred a major loss, with a reduction in producer surplus of AU$1,047 million. Australian grain consumers had a large consumer surplus loss (AU$229 million), while international consumers suffered a small loss and international grain producers gained a small producer surplus from the higher grain prices.     

Economic development and the role of agricultural technology

In earlier debates on economic development, the agricultural sector's role was somewhat controversial. While dualistic models highlighted the importance of agriculture, the mainstream literature placed a greater emphasis on the creation of a modern industrial sector. Soon agriculture disappeared from the mainstream development literature to re‐emerge recently with a variety of multiple‐sector growth models emphasizing the key role of agriculture and specifically technology in agriculture. This article is an empirical cross‐country analysis of agricultural technology's role in economic development. Specifically, the hypothesis being tested is whether improvements in agricultural technology have a significant impact on long‐run economic growth. The results indicate that agricultural modernization has a positive effect on both measures of economic growth and human development.     

Exchange rate alignment and producer support estimates (PSEs) for India

This article examines the effects of exchange rate alignment during 1985–2002 on agricultural producer support estimates (PSEs) for India. Based on several time series techniques, the equilibrium exchange rate of the Indian rupee and the corresponding misalignment of the actual rate are estimated and applied to recent PSE calculations. Our results show that the exchange rate was substantially misaligned before a financial crisis and macroeconomic reform in the early 1990s, with subsequent indirect effects on the PSEs. We find a relatively high pass‐through of exchange rate movements to domestic agricultural prices, so that removal of the exchange rate misalignment would have improved incentives to Indian farmers during this period. More recently, this indirect exchange rate effect is smaller than the direct effect in the PSEs, indicating the dominance of sectoral‐specific policies over economy‐wide policies.