Evaluating the impact of inequality constraints and parameter uncertainty on optimal portfolio choice

We present new analytical results for the impact of portfolio weight constraints on an investor’s optimal portfolio when parameter uncertainty is taken into account. While it is well known that parameter uncertainty and imposing weight constraints results in reduced certainty equivalent returns, in the general case, there are no analytical results. In a special case, commonly used in the funds management literature, we derive analytical expression for the certainty equivalent loss that does not depend on the risk aversion parameter. We illustrate our theoretical results using hedge fund data, from the perspective of a fund-of-fund manager. Our contribution is to formalize the framework to investigate this problem, as well as providing tractable analytical solutions that can be implemented using either simulated or asset manager returns.     

A portfolio approach to the optimal mix of funded and unfunded pensions

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we address the optimal funding of pensions by means of portfolio choice approach. Considering the unfunded (Paygo) pension system as a ‘quasi-asset’ with hedging and diversification properties, we derive the optimal portfolio mix of funded and Paygo systems within a mean variance and Bell linear exponential models. Our analysis involves both analytical computations and empirical estimations of optimal values using real long-term data for equity, bonds and the Paygo asset for several OECD countries and several time periods covering the time span 1897–2016. We find that in most cases a mix of both systems is desirable with a larger magnitude of Paygo system in the case of the Bell framework as we capture attitudes towards asymmetry and tail risks that are typical to equity markets.     

Pension funds' allocations to hedge funds: an empirical analysis of US and Canadian defined benefit plans

This article investigates the characteristics of US and Canadian pension funds that allocate assets to hedge funds. The typical pension fund that invests in hedge funds is a large sophisticated pension fund that diversifies its portfolio across numerous classes of investments, private equity in particular, uses a core-satellite organization and has access to low delegation costs for alternative assets. Moreover, we find that pension funds investing in hedge funds significantly obtained higher global returns.     

A review of experience curve analyses for energy demand technologies

Transitioning towards a sustainable energy system requires the large-scale introduction of novel energy demand and supply technologies. Such novel technologies are often expensive at the point of their market introduction but eventually become cheaper due to technological learning. In order to quantify potentials for price and cost decline, the experience curve approach has been extensively applied to renewable and non-renewable energy supply technologies. However, its application to energy demand technologies is far less frequent. Here, we provide the first comprehensive review of experience curve analyses for energy demand technologies. We find a widespread trend towards declining prices and costs at an average learning rate of 18 ± 9%. This finding is consistent with the results for energy supply technologies and for manufacturing in general. Learning rates for individual energy demand technologies are symmetrically distributed around the arithmetic mean of the data sample. Absolute variation of learning rates within individual technology clusters of 7 ± 4%-points and between technology clusters of 7 ± 5%-points both contribute to the overall variability of learning rates. Our results show that technological learning is as important for energy demand technologies as it is for energy supply technologies. Applying the experience curve approach to forecast technology costs involves, however, unresolved uncertainties, as we demonstrate in a case study for the micro-cogeneration technology.     

The impacts of weather variations on energy demand and carbon emissions

This paper examines the impacts of climate fluctuations on carbon emissions using monthly models of US energy demand. The econometric analysis estimates price, income, and weather elasticities of short-run energy demand. Our model simulations suggest that warmer climate conditions in the US since 1982 slightly reduced carbon emissions in the US. Lower energy use associated with reduced heating requirements offsets higher fuel consumption to meet increased air-conditioning needs. The analysis also suggests that climate change policies should allow some variance in carbon emissions due to short-term weather variations.     

The sustainability of Portuguese fiscal policy from a historical perspective

This paper analyses the sustainability of Portuguese public finances, making use of a long dataset with more than a full century of observations. The use of such a long dataset is appropriate because both the unit root and co-integration tests on which the sustainability testing procedure is based require a long period of data. We find considerable evidence in favor of sustainability for the 1903–2003 period which is not, however, maintained for the more recent 1975–2003 period, as it is characterized by the largest GDP deficit ratios of our sample. This latter period appears to signal a shift to an unsustainable path in Portuguese fiscal policy. Hence, our results suggest that fiscal consolidation efforts must, in fact, be continued in Portugal.Paper presented at the 2004 CESifo-LBI Conference on “Sustainability of Public Debt”, October 22–23 2004, Munich.     

The income elasticity of household energy demand: a quantile regression analysis

This article examines variation in the income elasticity of household energy demand across the energy expenditure distribution using expenditure data from the five most recent Household Budget Surveys (HBSs) in Ireland: the 1987, 1994/1995, 1999/2000, 2004/2005 and 2009/2010 HBS. The analysis uses a two-stage instrumental variable quantile regression approach and is based on each HBS cross section, as well as the overall pooled observations. The estimated elasticities are compared across low- and high-energy-consumption scenarios and to a benchmark elasticity estimated using two-stage least squares. The results provide evidence that there is significant variation in the income elasticities across the energy expenditure distribution and that care must be taken when using the constant mean elasticity for policy purposes. More specifically, any examination of the future impact of a change in income support policy measures on energy consumption should recognize the substantial context-dependent variation in the income elasticity.     

The elasticity of demand for wagering in an unregulated market

The literature estimating the take-out rate (price) elasticity of horse race wagering has consistently found values far above one. The persistence of these apparently inefficiently high prices can be attributed to institutional factors of the US market where federal taxes are imposed on the total amount wagered, and not on the bookmakers’ revenue. By investigating all horse races in New Zealand from August 1993 to April 2009, our article is the first one to consider price setting for wagering in an unregulated market where taxes for a monopolistic betting agency are based on revenues. In such a setting, one would expect elasticities close to one, but in all econometric specifications, we find values well below one. We identify two reasons why higher prices could nevertheless reduce profits: cross price elasticities are negative and, due to the specific features of parimutuel betting, international competitors may only be attracted when take-out rates are above a critical threshold.     

The water footprint of energy from biomass: A quantitative assessment and consequences of an increasing share of bio-energy in energy supply

This paper assesses the water footprint (WF) of different primary energy carriers derived from biomass expressed as the amount of water consumed to produce a unit of energy (m³/GJ). The paper observes large differences among the WFs for specific types of primary bio-energy carriers. The WF depends on crop type, agricultural production system and climate. The WF of average bio-energy carriers grown in the Netherlands is 24 m³/GJ, in the US 58 m³/GJ, in Brazil 61 m³/GJ, and in Zimbabwe 143 m³/GJ. The WF of bio-energy is much larger than the WF of fossil energy. For the fossil energy carriers, the WF increases in the following order: uranium (0.1 m³/GJ), natural gas (0.1 m³/GJ), coal (0.2 m³/GJ), and finally crude oil (1.1 m³/GJ). Renewable energy carriers show large differences in their WF. The WF for wind energy is negligible, for solar thermal energy 0.3 m³/GJ, but for hydropower 22 m³/GJ. Based on the average per capita energy use in western societies (100 GJ/capita/year), a mix from coal, crude oil, natural gas and uranium requires about 35 m³/capita/year. If the same amount of energy is generated through the growth of biomass in a high productive agricultural system, as applied in the Netherlands, the WF is 2420 m³. The WF of biomass is 70 to 400 times larger than the WF of the other primary energy carriers (excluding hydropower). The trend towards larger energy use in combination with an increasing contribution of energy from biomass will enlarge the need for fresh water. This causes competition with other claims, such as water for food.     

The patterns of induced diffusion: Evidence from the international diffusion of wind energy

Recent years have seen growing academic interest in the concept of induced diffusion as efforts to address concerns about energy security and climate change have intensified. Research on induced diffusion explores whether policy tools or interventions can incentivise the diffusion of innovations. This body of literature has explored the effectiveness and efficiency of various policy interventions and as such has been mainly concerned with the determinants of diffusion. This paper is, by way of contrast, concerned with the patterns of diffusion when diffusion is induced. Drawing on the Bass and Davies models of innovation diffusion we develop a number of propositions that suggest that the patterns of diffusion are different when policy plays a role in the diffusion process. These propositions are then econometrically tested in the context of the international diffusion of wind energy in 25 OECD countries. We find that, as predicted, without effective and strong policy interventions, countries will have conventional logistic diffusion with very similar speeds of diffusion. However, as expected the patterns of diffusion take on a different functional form (Bass curve) when there is a strong policy inducement. We conclude by discussing the implications and limitations of these results and suggesting avenues for further research.     

The value contribution of strategic foresight: Insights from an empirical study of large European companies

This paper focuses on exploring the potential and empirically observable value creation of strategic foresight activities in firms. We first review the literature on strategic foresight, innovation management and strategic management in order to identify the potential value contributions. We use survey data from 77 large multinational firms to assess how much value is generated from formalized strategic foresight practices in these firms. We show that it is possible to capture value through (1) an enhanced capacity to perceive change, (2) an enhanced capacity to interpret and respond to change, (3) influencing other actors, (4) and through an enhanced capacity for organizational learning.     

The effects of learning and signaling on money demand: With an application to heterodox inflation stabilization programs

This paper develops a nonlinear vector autoregression of inflation and money growth subject to changes in regime. The regimes are fully characterized by the mean and variance of inflation and are conjectured to be the result of alternative government policies. Agents are unable to observe directly whether government actions are indeed consistent with the inflation rate targeted as part of a stabilization program. However, as part of their money demand decision, agents construct probability inferences regarding the regime. Government announcements are assumed to provide agents with additional, possibly truthful information regarding the regime.  This specification is estimated using data from the Israeli and Argentine high-inflation periods. Results indicate that the successful stabilization program implemented in Israel in July 1985 was more credible than either the earlier Israeli attempt in November 1984 or the Argentine programs. Government's signaling might simplify the agents' inference problem and increase the speed of their learning but, under certain conditions, it might also increase inflation volatility. Welfare gains from a temporary increase in real balances might be high enough to induce agents to raise their money demand in the short-term even if they are uncertain about the nature of government policy and the eventual outcome of the stabilization attempt. Statistically, the model restrictions cannot be rejected at the 1% significance level. First version received: August 1998/Final version received: January 1999     

The welfare effects of innovative pharmaceuticals: an international perspective from the Dutch experience

Policy discussions on new medicines are often focused on cost containment rather than on the benefits they produce, such as health gains and cost savings in other sectors. In this study, we identify systematic differences in policies towards pharmaceuticals between countries and calculate the welfare gains of 39 innovative pharmaceuticals introduced in the Dutch market after 1997. Welfare gains are defined as the difference between the value of a QALY gained by innovative pharmaceuticals and their costs. The review shows that there are systematic differences among pharmaceutical policies and regulations between countries. It is further found that the welfare gains of pharmaceuticals are substantial and amount to €77 per capita per year in the Netherlands. The welfare gains could be higher if institutional barriers for an efficient utilization of innovative pharmaceuticals are removed.