Monetary Policy Stress in EMU: What Role for Fundamentals and Missed Forecasts?

This article reexamines the problem of monetary policy stress in the EMU. In addition to estimating the amount of stress in particular countries, we investigate its sources by breaking it down into its “fundamental” parts, covering how it is a result of country-specific macroeconomic divergences and the EMU-wide “non-fundamental” component, with special attention given to the role of missed forecasts. Our results confirm that peripheral countries were exposed to risks emerging from low interest rates while the “core” countries did not suffer from much monetary policy stress. Interestingly, the bulk of it was non-fundamental, i.e., not caused by inflation and output gap differentials between countries. We show that missed forecasts did make an important contribution to this part of the stress and were mainly responsible for pushing the interest rate below its rule-consistent level.     

经济转型时期中俄货币政策目标比较研究

本文回顾了中国和俄罗斯近年来执行货币政策的主要经历,并针对两国货币政策目标及其实施绩效进行了评价。结果发现,虽然中俄两国采取了相同的货币政策框架,但是却取得了不同的结果,中国的货币政策成功的控制了通胀,而俄罗斯的实际通胀率却始终高于其预先设定的目标。利用开放经济条件下的泰勒规则,我们进一步对中俄两国货币政策的目标进行了实证分析。结果表明,尽管中俄两国货币政策都采取了相同的反通胀的政策立场,但俄罗斯货币政策在稳定通胀的同时,还将稳定汇率作为了货币政策主要目标,这也是造成两国货币政策不同绩效的主要原因。我们认为,在当前人民币升值和通胀上升双重压力的背景下,我国货币政策的基本取向应该是坚持以反通胀为首要目标。     

美联储应对次贷危机的货币政策工具

在次贷危机的应对中,美联储的货币政策激进、灵活,与正常时期的渐进主义策略大相径庭。文章在对次贷危机以来美联储的货币政策操作进行梳理的基础上,研究美联储应对危机的货币政策机理,发现在危机时期,美联储始终坚持其担负的目标,货币政策体现为及时的、决定性的和灵活的。最后,文章探讨了美联储的危机时期政策对我国央行货币政策操作的启示。     

关于货币政策在经济调整中的作用和面临的风险

该文通过分析重温了货币主义的主要观点,对于货币政策在本轮危机中扮演的角色以及过于灵活的相机抉择式的微调模式提出质疑;并回到货币主义的立场,以货币数量轮的视角来评判当前美国货币政策操作。文章认为货币政策不应过多关注资本市场,保持货币和基准利率相对平稳对于宏观经济运行至关重要。     

Monetary Policy Reaction Functions of the TICKs: A Quantile Regression Approach

This study investigates how Taiwan, India, China, and Korea (TICKs) set interest rates in the context of policy reaction functions using a quantile-based approach. Our results indicate the tendency of a milder response to inflation at low interest rates and greater response at higher quantiles of interest rates, where inflation is presumably higher than desired for China and South Korea. While the response to inflation over the quantiles is significant for India, yet the Taylor principle is less likely to hold. For Taiwan, the results imply that another instrument is employed to deal with its official managed floating currency.     

流动性冲击、货币政策失误与金融危机——对美国金融危机的反思

本文认为:(1)流动性冲击主要通过资产负债表渠道和资产价格渠道来影响金融市场,正是这两种渠道才使得流动性在金融危机爆发及传导的过程中扮演了重要角色。借款人的资产负债表效应导致损失螺旋和保证金螺旋的产生,造成资产的折价销售,推动了资产价格的下跌和进一步的银根紧缩;(2)房地产泡沫的形成与美联储的货币政策失误、金融市场结构变化、新布雷顿森林体系以及投资者的羊群行为等有关,房地产泡沫破灭是美国金融危机的导火索;(3)金融危机爆发后,美联储通过调整中央银行的资产负债表,推出各种形式的金融创新工具,向金融市场注入流动性,有效地降低了金融市场崩溃的概率。论文最后从流动性管理的角度,对美国金融危机进行了反思。     

The Impact of Foreign Banks on Monetary Policy Transmission During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008–2009: Evidence from Korea

This article examines the impact of foreign banks on the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the Korean economy during the period from 2000 to 2012, with a specific focus on the lending behavior of banks with different types of ownership. Using bank-level panel data of the banking system in Korea, we present consistent evidence on the buffering impact that the foreign banks, especially foreign bank branches including US bank branches, on the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Korea from the bank-lending channel perspective during the global financial crisis of 2008–2009.     

各国央行非常规货币政策综述

美国次贷危机爆发以来,全球金融系统和实体经济遭遇了严重冲击,为了有效缓解负面冲击,各国央行纷纷推出各种宽松性货币政策,但在实际应用中,传统货币政策不能有效克制危机,关联储等央行纷纷求助于量化宽松等新型非常规货币政策.目前来看,非常规货币政策产生了积极影响,美国等经济体实现了就业的改善、金融系统的稳定和经济增长的复苏.为...     

Optimal money and debt management: Liquidity provision vs tax smoothing

Conventional wisdom on public debt management says that liquidity demand should be satiated and that tax rates should be smoothed. Conflicts between the two can arise when government bonds provide liquidity. Smoothing taxes causes greater variability in fiscal balances, and therefore in the supply of government liabilities. When prices are flexible, and can jump to absorb fiscal shocks, the tradeoff between liquidity provision and tax smoothing is eased; when they conflict, optimal policy subordinates tax smoothing to satiating liquidity demand. When price fluctuations impose real costs, conflicts necessarily arise and optimal policy gives primacy to neither goal.     

国际金融危机冲击、经济结构与经济增长——对辽宁省与江苏省的比较

本轮国际金融危机给我国经济带来巨大冲击。但由于我国幅员辽阔,各省经济结构不同,经济发展水平不同,因而受到的冲击也不同。通过对典型外向型经济省份江苏省与非外向型经济省份辽宁省的比较发现,国际金融危机冲击对对江苏省影响十分巨大,单纯依靠宽松的货币政策很难恢复到危机以前的情况,货币政策对其效果有限。相对来讲,国际金融危机冲击对于辽宁省的影响却十分有限,其经济增长主要是受货币政策和GDP自身趋势影响。另外,通过实证分析发现,国际金融危机对江苏省经济的影响在2009年和2010年最严重,到2011年情况可能会好转。     

Fundamental Information and Monetary Policy: The Implications for Earnings and Earnings Forecasts

Building on the work of Lev and Thiagarajan (1993) and Abarbanell and Bushee (1997 and 1998) this paper tests whether market-based information including dividend yield (Fama and French, 1998), firm size (Reinganum, 1981), and the ratio of book value to market value (Fama and French, 1992) add explanatory power to accounting data for predicting future earnings. The paper also tests whether earnings changes and the predictability of those changes are conditioned on monetary policy. It is found that the ratio of book value to market value is significantly related to earnings changes. Analyst forecast accuracy differs depending on monetary policy regime, but this difference is not due to differing interpretation of fundamental signals on financial statements appearing under differing monetary policy regimes. It is also found that there is a significant relation between monetary policy, earnings changes, and the level of signals concerning earnings changes.     

进一步完善我国出口退税政策的建议

本文首先梳理了国际金融危机爆发后我国对出口退税政策进行的历次调整,并对调整的效果进行了评价。之后,详细分析了我国现行出口退税政策存在的不足之处,对进一步完善出口退税政策提出了建议。     

货币政策和金融稳定

近期的金融危机使世界各国的中央银行加强了对金融稳定问题的关注,对货币政策目标的选择与实施更加慎重。为更好实现金融稳定目标,中央银行应根据具体情况,在宏观审慎政策与货币政策之间做好平衡,在不同种类的宏观审慎政策工具间做出选择。     

美联储应对金融危机的货币政策:效果、特点与问题

2007年以来,美联储为了应对金融危机,实施了扩张性货币政策,并根据市场需要,创设了一系列非常规货币政策工具.在货币政策的调控下,市场信心得以恢复,金融机构倒闭现象得到遏制,并阻止了经济深度衰退.但极度扩张的货币政策也带来了后续的通货膨胀、债务风险等问题,需要采取有效措施加以解决.     

货币政策与金融危机的关系研究：理论综述

摘要：现有的金融危机理论主要基于四个角度来阐释金融危机,经历了“由强调宏观因素到强调微观因素,再到宏观因素与微观因素并重”的发展过程。货币政策在金融危机理论中的重要性也随着理论的发展和研究视角的不同而有不同的体现。本文对金融危机理论中有关货币政策与金融危机关系的研究进行了系统的梳理总结,并作相应述评。     

Using information quality for volatility model combinations

This paper proposes updated methodology for volatility model combinations which account for the informational content of innovations. An adaptive measure of information quality serves for the selection of model weights in order to improve daily volatility forecasts. The information quality proxy is related to the size of unexpected shocks in the volatility process. Our approach is illustrated in an empirical study with German stock market data.     

The discrete and differential impact of monetary policy

This study exploits a unique feature of the Australian monetary policy environment to determine whether economic recovery can be stimulated via central bank communications. This study finds that unexpected monetary policy announcements and communications have a significant and comparable impact on the value and volatility of the Australian foreign exchange market, suggesting that they can be used interchangeably to stimulate economic recovery. However, further analysis reveals that the state of the economy influences this impact. Specifically, during poor economic states, monetary policy actions speak louder than words, an adage that in this context provides actionable information for central bank regulators.     

通货膨胀持久性的不确定性与货币政策：一个简单的分析框架

通过构建一个简单的分析框架研究通货膨胀持久性的不确定性与货币政策之间的关系。研究结果表明，当面对通货膨胀持久性不确定性时，低估通货膨胀持久性程度能够降低通货膨胀波动。更确切地说，不论是否存在通货膨胀持久性，低估通货膨胀持久性的货币政策是最优的。