Multi-scale assessment and spatial modelling of agricultural land abandonment in a European peripheral region: Galicia (Spain), 1956-2004

The environmental, cultural and economic consequences of land use change, including abandonment of agricultural use, have been recognized for a long time. It has often been assumed that the transformations of the agricultural systems in developed countries (and particularly in Europe) took place, for the main part, in the immediate years after the Second World War. In this paper we present a review of different statistical and cartographic sources available for a peripheral region in Europe (Galicia, Spain) characterized by small-scale farming and a very fragmented property system, that suggests otherwise: modernization of agriculture apparently took place without major changes in agricultural area until the country gained access to the European Economic Community, and the effect of Common Agricultural Policy reforms during the decade of 1990 is suggested as a major driver for the net decrease of agricultural area in the region between 1956 and 2004. On the other hand, this paper emphasizes the spatial complexity of agricultural abandonment with a case study, showing a large degree of variability at municipal scale and thus the need of future EU-level projects to work at least at municipal (Local Administrative Units 2, LAU 2) level. Finally, a multinomial logistic model for observed changes is included that shows how biophysical limitations were the main drivers behind abandonment of agriculture at parcel scale, while structural qualities related to property structure were strongly associated to the incorporation of former shrublands to agricultural use. Besides, Farm Structure Surveys were revealed as an unreliable source for the assessment of changes in total agricultural area in the studied region.     

Rewilding and restoring cultural landscapes in Mediterranean mountains: Opportunities and challenges

Farmland abandonment and the decline of livestock activity in the Mediterranean mountains have resulted in dramatic landscape changes, including the generalized expansion of shrublands and forests, and the homogenization of the old cultural landscapes. This process has a variety of consequences from ecological, geomorphological and hydrological points of view, as well as from the perspectives of land management and public awareness. An intense debate currently surrounds the discussion and evaluation of rewilding (the process of passively allowing woody encroachment, as well as the reintroduction of large mammals) as an opportunity for enhancing biodiversity and restoring original landscapes after centuries of human activity versus ecological restoration (activities leading to the recovery of degraded ecosystems, including clearing and light human activity). There is no clear consensus regarding the best way to improve the ecological relationships and functioning within an ecosystem. Biodiversity and sustainability can be seen under different levels of human pressure and landscape transformation; total farmland abandonment is not always the best alternative, particularly when local inhabitants aim to sustain themselves using local resources. Many geographers and ecologists consider that extensive stockbreeding in a partially open landscape is a rational way to (i) improve landscape organization, (ii) increase flows and turnover within the ecosystems, (iii) increase the diversity of plants and animals that benefit from a relatively light human presence, and (iv) reduce wildfire risk. However, it has proven challenging for land managers and stockbreeders to clear the best old abandoned fields and “construct” a sustainable, balanced landscape that combines forests, shrublands and open lands. Private landowner involvement and support from the general public is crucial for both funding and the long-term maintenance of benefits. The best old fields should be cleared in the context of high-resolution knowledge of the topography, grassland characteristics, grassland cycles and livestock management. Such efforts are likely to be an excellent opportunity to introduce compatibility between light human activity and increases in biodiversity and sustainability for many marginal mountains, where land abandonment and general forest/shrub recovery are the inevitable tendencies. This paper examines some of the contrasting positions of the scientific community regarding the rewilding or ecological restoration of mountain landscapes, and briefly highlights some experiences in which intentional clearing of old abandoned fields has benefited stockbreeding, biodiversity, runoff generation and wildfire risks. Notably, we describe a sub-Mediterranean valley of the Iberian Range, Northern Spain, as an example. In the long term, we find that the intentional clearing of the best old fields allows the slow organization of a final landscape that will be more useful for local inhabitants, thereby helping to reverse human depopulation in these regions.     

农村耕地抛荒的影响因素及治理研究——基于二次文献调查法

农村耕地抛荒是我国在城镇化发展和经济社会转型时期农村出现的一个普遍而现实的问题。农村耕地的抛荒导致农村耕地的不充分利用和有限耕地资源的极大浪费,虽然我国废除了农业税,并不断延长农村耕地承包期的时间,但农村耕地抛荒现象依然没得到遏制,本文通过二次文献调查法,搜集耕地抛荒相关的论文、报道共计557篇,通过数据整理和编码,分析和探讨当前我国农村地区的耕地抛荒问题。     

Analysing how drivers of agricultural land abandonment affect biodiversity and cultural landscapes using case studies from Scandinavia,Iberia and Oceania

Agricultural land abandonment (ALA) is widespread in many countries of the global north. It impacts rural communities, traditional landscapes, biodiversity and ecosystem services. It is an opportunity for ecosystem restoration or new landscape functions. We explored ALA in study areas in Australia, Portugal and Sweden. In each, we assessed plant species diversity, historical trajectories of land cover change; and the socioeconomic past, present and future in interviews with farmers. The ALA data was integrated and analysed by identifying the drivers of change. The relative importance of each driver and its scale of action was estimated, both in the past (1950–2010) and in the future (2010–2030). ALA has transformed rural landscapes in the study areas of Portugal and Sweden. It is at a much earlier stage with potential to increase in the Australian case. We identified a set of driving forces, classified into pressures, frictions and attractors that clarify why ALA, noting its temporal and spatial scale, occurs differently in each study area. The effect of the drivers is related to social and historical contexts. Pressures and attractors encouraging agricultural abandonment are strongest in Portugal and Sweden. Generally more (institutionalized) frictions are in place in these European sites, intended to prevent further change, based on the benefits assumed for biodiversity and aesthetics. In Australia, the stimulation of driving forces to promote a well-managed abandonment of some cleared areas could be highly beneficial for biodiversity, minimally disruptive for current dairy farming operations and would bring opportunities for alternative types of rural development.     

The consequences of changes of ownership for agricultural land use in Central European countries following the collapse of the Eastern Bloc

One of the key factors shaping contemporary land use in Central and Eastern Europe has obviously been change of ownership, with the collapse of the nationalised sector and restitution of farmland to owners giving rise to such changes. The work presented here therefore considers the main directions to ongoing changes in land use in the above region, under the influence of the processes of privatisation affecting the agricultural sector. Specifically, analyses conducted entailed assessment of the influence ownership processes have exerted on the area and structure of agricultural land, the size structure characterising farms and the situation on the market for land. The work took in five countries of the former Eastern Bloc, i.e. the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.     

Determinants of cropland abandonment at the parcel,household and village levels in mountain areas of China: A multi-level analysis

Cropland abandonment accompanying economic development has been observed worldwide. China has experienced a large amount of land abandonment in recent years. However, the reasons for it are not entirely clear. Although abandonment decisions are made by individual households, the underlying conditions reflect processes operating at multiple levels. Therefore, we aimed to detect the influences on land abandonment at the parcel, household and village levels. We developed and employed a multi-level statistical model using farm household survey data and geographical maps of Wulong County. Our model revealed that of the variance in occurrence of land parcel abandonment, 7% and 13% can be explained at the household and village levels, respectively, while the remnant 80% can be explained at the land parcel features itself. We found that land abandonment is more prone to occur on parcels that are on steep slopes, have poor quality soil, or are remote from the laborers’ residences. Households with less agricultural labor per unit land area showed a high probability of land abandonment. We also found a nonlinear influence of labor age on land abandonment, with households comprising middle-aged laborers having a low land abandonment probability. Parcels in villages with high elevation, far from the county administrative center or with low prevalence of leased land are inclined to abandonment. We also found, surprisingly, that the household proportion of males among its agricultural laborers did not significantly influence the occurrence of land abandonment at the parcel level, probably due to the male agricultural laborers being overwhelmingly old (average age greater than 56 years). To alleviate land abandonment, we suggest improving land tenure and transfer security to ensure stable access to the land rental market, and also improving infrastructure in remote regions.     

Changing land use intensity in Europe – Recent processes in selected case studies

In recent decades the intensification of agricultural production in many European countries has been one of the key components of land-use change. The impact of agricultural intensification varies according to national and local contexts and a greater understanding of the drivers of intensification will help to mitigate against its negative impacts and harness potential benefits. This paper analyses changes in land use intensity in six case studies in Europe. A total of 437 landowners were interviewed and their responses were analysed in relation to changes in land use intensity and agricultural production between 2001 and 2011. In the case studies in Western and Eastern Europe we observed stabilisation during the last decade, and no clear tendency of increase or decrease of land use intensity. The use of fertilizers and pesticides seems to have decreased in our cases in Western Europe, which is contrary to trends in Eastern Europe. Agricultural production remained stable in almost all cases, except for an increase in Austria and Romania which may indicate that the farming efficiency has increased. A statistical analysis showed a division between study areas in Romania and Austria (increasing land use intensity) versus those in the Netherlands, Denmark and Greece (decreasing). In the Mediterranean cases we observe a process where agriculture is becoming increasingly marginalised, at the same time as changes in function with regard to urbanisation and recreational land uses have taken place. Logistic regression highlighted the importance of farm size and farmer type in understanding changes in land use intensity. The dominant pattern of stabilisation which has occurred over the past 10 years may also partly be a result of effective EU and national environmental and agricultural policies, which are increasingly concerned with improving environmental conditions in rural areas.     

Primary causes of total hamlet abandonment for different types of hamlets in remote mountain areas of China: A case study of Shouning County,Fujian Province

Total hamlet abandonment in remote mountains throughout the last several decades as a result of severe rural depopulation constitutes many serious socioeconomic problems now occurring in China and many other developing countries. To get a more profound insight into the primary causes of hamlet abandonment, this study builds on a conceptual framework through conducting an in-depth qualitative analysis based on a case-study of Shouning County, Southeast China. The primary causes of total hamlet abandonment have been illustrated by classifying these abandoned hamlets into three types: disaster-affected hamlets, township hamlets, and remote hamlets. Results have shown that the primary causes of abandonment were tremendously different for each type of the hamlets in question. Natural disasters and subsequently immediate government-sponsored resettlement were the primary causes of disaster-driven hamlet abandonment. Sudden onset events and ex situ resettlement have produced quick hamlet abandonment. Our results also show that in situ urbanization and government-sponsored resettlement were the dominating causes of hamlet abandonment for adjacent hamlets of townships. For remote hamlets (which were the dominating type of abandoned hamlets), severe lack of public services (especially education) was the first and foremost cause of hamlet abandonment, while in situ urbanization and the government-sponsored Poverty Alleviation Resettlement Project (PARP) were secondary causes. Adverse natural conditions, however, were relatively minor factors in remote hamlet abandonment. Lastly, external factors were significant ‘pull’ forces in comparison, leading to hamlet abandonment for all types of abandoned hamlets within the study. The heterogeneity of hamlet abandonment and multi-scale causes have been highlighted in our case study. These findings therein have important policy implications for rural sustainability in developing countries, particularly China.     

Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Urbanization-induced land use problems have been haunting China’s urban agglomerations ever since the beginning of this period of unparalleled economic progress. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region is no exception, where coordinated development planning has been implemented by the central government to further resolve attributed problems. Land use simulation models can be used to help governments and planners understand how planning and policies affect the future landscape, by developing sustainable land use strategies which may reasonably balance urbanization and eco-environmental protection. In this paper, we explored the characteristics of historical land use dynamics from 2000 to 2015 in the BTH region and simulated its future land use patterns for 2030 by combining the Dyna-CLUE model with a Markov model to deal with some short comings of existing land use models. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The figure of merits (FoM) based on the method of three-map comparison reached 85.89 %, which indicated that the simulation model has satisfactory accuracy. (2) Land use structures and spatial patterns differed significantly under business as usual (BAU) scenario, cropland protection (CP) scenario and ecological security (ES) scenario, respectively, owing to the variation of the major objectives designed for different scenarios. (3) By scenario analysis and through tradeoffs, the land use mode under the ecological security scenario might be the optimal solution for future coordinated development in the BTH region. These results will provide theoretical basis and meaningful guidance for regional land optimal allocation.     

Long run agricultural land expansion,booms and busts

Agricultural land expansion is a prominent feature in today’s developing countries. It is associated with a structural pattern of land use in many remote land-abundant regions where large-scale commercial primary product activities coexist with increased concentration of smallholders in more marginal areas. The result may be boom-bust cycles of development. If these phenomena are widespread across developing countries, then long-run expansion of agricultural land could be associated with lower levels of real income per capita, which may also fluctuate with prolonged expansion. A panel analysis conducted over 1961–2015 for 98 developing economies fails to reject this hypothesis. Policies should aim to decouple socio-economic gains through agricultural development from continued land expansion, and greater investments are needed to support smallholder agriculture, land distribution and livelihoods in these areas.     

Farmer-specific relationships between land use change and landscape factors: Introducing agents in empirical land use modelling

Traditional empirical land use change models generally assume one average land use decision-maker. Multi-Agent System (MAS) models, on the other hand, acknowledge existence of different types of agents, but their poor empirical embedding remains a serious handicap. This paper demonstrates how agent information can also be incorporated into empirical, biophysical land use models.     

Conversion of agricultural and forest land to other purposes in the context of land protection: Evidence from Polish experience

The protection of agricultural land and forests is a relatively new concept in Poland, and it began with forest protection in the 1920s. The first regulations on the protection of agricultural land were introduced only in the 1960s. Agricultural land and forests received comprehensive protection pursuant to the provisions of the Act of 26 October 1977 on the protection of agricultural land, forests and land recultivation. This legal act set the foundations for the protection of farmland and forests in successive decades.The aim of this study was to determine the influence of farmland and forest protection on spatial planning and to highlight the loss of agricultural and forest land resulting from conversion to other purposes. Legal regulations pertaining to spatial planning and the protection of agricultural and land forests were analysed. The scale of the problem was identified, and future land-use types were forecast based on the data developed by Statistics Poland (GUS). The existing spatial plans (municipal master plan - MMP) were analysed to determine the conversion loss index (CLI) associated with the conversion of agricultural land and forests to other uses. Legal regulations pertaining to the protection of agricultural land and forests were also analysed, and the extent of the relevant conversion measures was determined. The study demonstrated that urban development and the inevitable urbanization of rural areas contribute to the loss of agricultural and forest land that are converted to other uses.     

Cultivated land conversion and potential agricultural productivity in China

In China there is a growing debate on the role of cultivated land conversion on food security. This paper uses satellite images to examine the changes of the area of cultivated land and its potential agricultural productivity in China. We find that between 1986 and 2000 China recorded a net increase of cultivated land (+1.9%), which almost offset the decrease in average potential productivity, or bioproductivity (−2.2%). Therefore, we conclude that conversion of cultivated land has not hurt China's national food security. We also argue that more recent change in cultivated area likely has had little adverse effect on food security.     

Integrating expert knowledge and quantitative information for mapping cropping systems

Scenarios are accepted as useful tools for assessing economic and environmental impacts of land use changes, for involving stakeholders in environmental issues and thus for decision-making. In most studies involving comparison and evaluation of scenarios, a reference situation from which different scenarios will be developed is defined. When dealing with rural areas, scenarios, and thus reference situation, should not only consider land use but also cropping systems. The usual lack of data concerning cropping system distribution in a given region can be overcome by the use of expert knowledge. In this paper, we present a procedure for the spatial allocation of cropping systems that integrates expert knowledge and quantitative data. The aim of this procedure is to develop a reference situation that makes explicit the link between cropping systems and the factors responsible for their geographical location (location factors).     

Zionism and agricultural land: National narratives,environmental objectives,and land policy in Israel

The 1990s saw two different and even contradictory trends in Israel. On the one hand, there was a substantial increase in environmental awareness, on the part of both the general public and decision-makers, that led to a change in the land use planning policy at the national level. On the other hand, the Israel Lands Council (ILC), the body empowered by law to shape the national land policy, made a series of decisions that severely violated the principle of preserving agricultural land and led to massive conversion of agricultural land and open space for commercial, industrial, and residential development. Thus the national land policy became incompatible with the land use planning policy and the rise in environmental awareness it reflected.     

Developing land use scenarios for stakeholder participation in Russia

Land use change, climate change, and the politics of accelerated agricultural growth shape contemporary land use in Russia. This factor combination urgently calls for exploring viable opportunities for sustainable land management in rural areas, which remains low on the political agenda. We address this task by bringing together various dimensions of future land use and state regulation and develop land use scenarios for the Tyumen region in Western Siberia up to 2050. Schematised maps of future land use make the scenarios spatially explicit and stakeholder-engaging. As part of the scenario process, we conducted stakeholder interviews and organised two scenario workshops on the ground. We present the scenarios as a tool that could be used to support participatory processes in a post-Soviet context.     

Drivers of cropland abandonment in mountainous areas: A household decision model on farming scale in Southwest China

Cropland abandonment has emerged as a prevalent phenomenon in the mountainous areas of China. While there is a general understanding that this new trend is driven by the rising opportunity cost of rural labor, rigorous theoretical and empirical analyses are largely absent. This paper first develops a theoretical model to investigate household decisions on farming scale when off-farm labor market is accessible and there is heterogeneity of farmland productivity and distribution. The model is capable of explaining the hidden reasons of cropland abandonment in sloping and agriculturally less-favored locations. The model also unveils the impacts of heterogeneity of household labor on fallow decisions and the efficiency loss due to an imperfect labor market. The model is empirically tested by applying the Probit and Logit estimators to a unique household and land-plot survey dataset which contains 5258 plots of 599 rural households in Chongqing, a provincial level municipality, in Southwest China. The survey shows that more than 30% of the sample plots have been abandoned, mainly since 1992. The econometric results are consistent with our theoretical expectations. This work would help policy-makers and stakeholders to identify areas with a high probability of land abandonment and farming practice which is less sustainable in the mountainous areas.     

A quantitative assessment of policy options for no net loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services in the European Union

The Biodiversity Strategy of the European Union includes a target to “ensure no-net-loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services by 2020”. Many policy options can be envisioned to achieve such a no-net-loss target, mainly acting on land use and land management. To assess the effectiveness of such policies at a European Union (EU) scale, we simulated land use changes and their impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services indicators. We analysed a Business–as-Usual scenario, and three no-net-loss scenarios. The no-net-loss scenarios included measures that aim to reduce negative impacts of land use change on biodiversity and ecosystem services, by better implementation of existing biodiversity conservation measures (Scenario 1); and enhancement of existing measures (Scenario 2); and offsetting residual impacts on areas of high biodiversity and ecosystem service value (Scenario 3).Results show that none of the scenarios achieved overall no-net-loss. Compared to a Business-as-Usual scenario, the no-net-loss scenarios reduced the overall degree of land cover change at EU level, hence reducing impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services in large parts of the EU. The more comprehensive no-net-loss scenarios resulted in a gain of natural land cover. Moreover, natural areas became better connected, especially in peri-urban areas as a result of impact avoidance and offsetting. Richness of farmland bird species was projected to increase. Measures included in the no-net-loss scenarios had net positive effects on pollination and carbon sequestration, neutral effects on crop production, erosion prevention and flood regulation, and negative effects on nature-based recreation, compared to Business-as-Usual. In particular circumstances policy measures invoked displacement effects in land use allocation, reducing the effectiveness of the measures. This was primarily the case for flood regulation services throughout the EU.This study differentiates the potential effectiveness of a no-net-loss policy framework in three manners: (i) considering biodiversity and ecosystem services simultaneously; (ii) in the light of existing policies and land use pressures; and (iii) in different land use contexts across the EU. Taken together, we conclude that achieving no-net-loss for biodiversity and ecosystem services throughout the EU remains challenging given high land use demands. Nevertheless, in large parts of Europe there appears room for improvement for certain kinds of biodiversity and ecosystem services compared to Business-as-Usual, while still meeting other land use demands.     

Local perceptions about rural abandonment drivers in the Colombian coffee region: Insights from the city of Manizales

One of the most challenging processes in the rural world is the one related to rural abandonment. Rural abandonment has drawn attention worldwide, particularly in Europe and Asia without neglecting the importance in other regional contexts such as Latin America. Even though the literature about rural abandonment drivers is vast, these pieces of literature do not identify the drivers perceived by the people who live in rural areas. Therefore, in this paper, we search for the understanding of the perceived drivers of rural abandonment in the Colombian coffee region. The specific objectives were: (1) to identify socioeconomic characteristics of the respondents; (2) to analyze local attitudes toward the countryside and farming, and (3) to identify perceived factors influencing rural abandonment. We surveyed 320 households in 12 villages around the city of Manizales (Colombia), and we conducted 27 key informant interviews, and three focal groups. Our results show that the rural population faces several socio-economic constraints; however, despite these constraints, most people are willing to remain in the countryside (85%). We discussed the variables affecting these preferences. Furthermore, we found several drivers of rural abandonment perceived by the sampled population, where they highlight the lack of State support and rural education. We concluded that our results help to deepen into the understanding of the contemporary rural dynamics related to countryside abandonment.