绿色信贷能否缓解银行系统性风险*——基于中国22家上市银行的证据

本文选取2009—2020年中国22家上市银行年度数据，构建面板回归模型,就绿色信贷对银行系统性风险的影响及其传导机制与异质性特征进行实证分析。研究表明：绿色信贷对银行系统性风险具有抑制作用。风险承担与盈利能力在绿色信贷与银行系统性风险的关系中承担着双重中介作用。绿色信贷对银行系统性风险的影响存在异质性特征。相对于国有银行、低环境规制时期银行及经济上行期银行，绿色信贷对非国有银行、高环境规制时期银行及经济下行期银行系统性风险的抑制作用更为明显。该成果将为防控中国银行业系统性风险提供重要的理论指导与决策参考。     

中国商业银行体系信用风险评估——基于宏观压力测试的研究

宏观压力测试,作为压力测试方法在宏观经济分析中的具体运用,可以提供极端事件对金融体系影响的前瞻性信息.随着各国金融监管当局对系统性风险的日趋重视,宏观压力测试方法逐渐成为检验一国银行体系的脆弱性、维护金融稳定的首选工具.本文主要研究宏观压力测试在银行信用风险评估中的应用,并在已有的模型成果的对比分析基础上,建立适用于我国的宏观压力测试模型并以此进行实证分析.本文以贷款违约率作为评估银行系统信用风险的指标,选取对银行信贷违约风险构成冲击的宏观经济变量,通过多元线性回归模型将其整合成为一个综合性指标.研究结果发现:名义国内生产总值(NGDP)和通货膨胀率指标(CPI)对银行体系的贷款表现冲击力较强.在此基础上构建了两种宏观经济极端情境,在关于NGDP大幅下降和CPI骤升的压力情境设定下,银行体系的贷款违约率都出现了不同程度的大幅度提高.尤其在关于通货膨胀率的情境设定下,贷款违约率的增幅高于其在NGDP下降情境下的增幅.     

商业银行信用风险管理及其在中国的应用研究

信用风险是银行业面对的主要风险之一,如何有效地度量和管理信用风险是银行风险管理者尤为关注的问题。介绍了传统的信用风险度量方法和现代信用风险度量模型,在此基础上提出基于新巴塞尔协议的商业银行信用风险管理和基于信用衍生产品的商业银行信用风险管理方法,以期对我国商业银行信用风险管理有所启示。     

国有银行信息化创新与风险控制的相关性研究

我国商业银行的信息化建设已走过二十年的道路,取得了巨大的成绩。由于＂信息化悖论＂的影响,信息化创新将逐渐成为我国商业银行信息化建设最重要的动力源。信息化创新必然对商业银行的风险控制能力存在着天然的促进作用。借助于全模型的检验方法,通过对我国商业银行信息化创新活动和风险控制活动的数据收集,可以对信息化创新与风险控制能力提升之间的微观传导机制进行经验性的分析,从而为我国商业银行增强信息化创新的功能、进一步提高风险控制能力提供了现实性的理论借鉴。研究结果表明：在国有商业银行风险控制能力形成过程中,信息化应用创新发挥了显著的作用,信息化技术创新与信息化管理创新产生了一定程度的作用,有待深入地改进和拓展;同时,信用风险控制能力与操作风险控制能力的改进效果最为显著,综合风险控制能力的改进效果次之,而市场风险控制能力的改进效果最弱。     

Taxonomy methods in credit risk evaluation

In their bid for integration with the European Union, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe are faced with the need to introduce numerous significant improvements to their economic systems. A highly important role in this process is to make changes in the existing banking systems. The credit risk evaluation method presented here, using taxonomic measures to plot so-called credit risk maps, may be used to develop sound principles of credit policies. It is a proposition that could solve one of the many problems arising in the course of adaptation of banking systems in Central and Eastern Europe to conditions of market economy.     

“信息制导”决定信贷风险

在中国银行业全面开放之际．针对信贷风险大案频发，巨额不良资产难以消除的现状．从现代经济社会发展趋势出发，本文运用信息经济学理论对银行授信审批全过程展开深入的研究分析，发现国内商业银行在授信审批过程中存在信息制导的恶性发挥，从信息源到信息传递再到信息处理都存在虚假、错误信息，并产生叠加、加剧叠加和错误放大，出现了“集体失信”，引发信贷风险产生。从银行实务操作可行性出发，提出了较为系统的解决方法和措施。为在当今经济发展世界一体化、金融全球化的新形势下，商业银行如何控制和防止信贷风险提出了新的信贷理论和实际操作办法。     

FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A THEORETICAL ANALYSIS OF THE TRANSFORMING CHINESE ECONOMY

Abstract. We conduct a theoretical investigation into how financial reforms are affecting the long‐run economic performance of the partially reformed Chinese economy. In a model with a dual structure in commodity production and financial repression, allowing the co‐existence of a state banking system and an informal credit market and introducing heterogeneity in the transaction technologies of individuals, we examine the interactions between the state banking system and the informal credit market, and the effects of various measures of financial liberalization on individuals’ optimal portfolio choices and the macroeconomic aggregates.     

Information production, banking industry structure and credit allocation

We analyse credit allocation when limited-liable banks can engage in costly information production about borrowers. When perfectly diversified credit portfolios cannot be constructed, we show that credit allocation depends on bank capital and the number of banks that can operate in the same market. A concentrated banking industry, one where bank capital is held by few banks, is shown to lead to credit allocation closer to the social optimum. Moreover, in the absence of banking industry consolidation, we find that the removal of intra-state entry barriers reduces welfare and not all independent banking organizations that were viable in formerly protected markets remain so when markets are integrated.     

巴塞尔新资本协议框架下的操作风险衡量与资本金约束

操作风险已经成为全球银行业风险管理日益重要的领域之一。将信用风险、市场风险和操作风险合并起来考虑已成为国际范围内风险管理的一种趋势。在近年来国际金融界越来越重视操作风险管理的基础上,巴塞尔新资本协议率先将操作风险纳入风险管理框架中,并要求金融机构为操作风险配置相应的资本金。操作风险管理的突显,使金融机构面临新的压力与挑战。     

银行业结构与经济增长

本文运用中国28个省区在1985—2002年间的面板数据,考察银行业结构对经济增长的影响。文章对银行业结构的分析着眼于不同规模的银行在银行体系中的相对重要性,度量指标为中小金融机构的市场份额,即四大国有商业银行之外的其他金融机构的贷款余额占各地区全部金融机构贷款余额的比例。为了克服银行业结构可能存在的内生性问题,文章用1994年启动的国有银行商业化改革的政策因素来构造银行业结构的工具变量。运用双向固定效应模型的估计结果显示,在中国现阶段,中小金融机构市场份额的上升对经济增长具有显著的正向影响。     

黑龙江省农村金融领域的信用风险及其防范

信用是市场经济的基础,也是市场经济的必然产物,因此,信用风险一旦发生就会对经济发展产生诸多不利影响,在金融领域的影响尤为严重。中国作为一个农业大国,农村金融领域发生信用风险就会严重地制约经济的总体发展水平。因此,从农村金融的角度,以黑龙江省为例,提出合理防范农村金融领域的信用风险,对黑龙江省整体县域经济发展具有重要意义。基于此,分析了农村金融领域信用风险产生的原因和对区域性农业经济发展的影响,提出了相应的风险防范措施.     

信用悖论及其解决

信用悖论是银行业在其信用风险管理过程存在的较大问题:保持良好的客户关系与分散信用风险之间的矛盾。笔者考察和研究了运用现代资产组合理论进行风险分散化贷款组合管理的KMV模型和以金融创新——信用衍生品进行对冲组合管理的理论和实践。     

商业银行信贷风险控制要素研究

从银行信贷项目全面风险管理概念的内涵出发,构建了银行信贷项目风险控制要素的概念模型,并对银行信贷项目风险控制要素对银行信贷项目风险的影响进行了实证分析。得出如下结论：环境因素并不是银行信贷项目风险产生的主要原因,银行内部控制制度对信贷项目风险有显著影响。据此提出如下建议：中国银行业在金融风暴中应通过完善内部控制制度来加强传统信贷业务的风险管理,以保证银行业的长治久安。     

Design and rating of risk-contingent credit for balancing business and financial risks for Kenyan farmers

Weather-related agricultural risks and limited access to credit are serious impediments to agricultural productivity and growth in developing countries. This paper describes a novel insurance linked credit model piloted in Kenya, where insurance markets are effectively absent, and farmers do not borrow because of the risk of losing their collateral. One of the challenges in deigning bundled credit products, in the absence of traded securities, is the actuarial pricing and risk rating of the insurance and the loan product. We develop a rainfall linked risk-contingent credit that transfers drought risk related perils from borrower to lender via insurance mechanism that provide a balance between business and credit risks for smallholder farmers. We describe the methodology used to design and rating of a risk-contingent structured operating agricultural credit instrument using CHIRPS rainfall data from 1981–2016 in Kenya. We illustrate the use of Monte Carlo methods to risk modelling that can be integrated within the general insurance and credit rating framework. The innovative design and methodology presented in this paper are as important as the product delivery mechanism and will be of interest to specialists in development economics and agricultural finance.     

The impact of political institutions on U.S. state bond yields during crises: evidence from the 2008 credit market seizure

This study examines how political institutions mediate bond market reactions to severe economic crisis, based on U.S. states’ experience of the 2008 credit market seizure. Following severe fiscal shocks, political institutions assume greater importance in assessing risk characteristics of state bonds. The bond market reacts most strongly to two factors: public sector union strength in a state and the proportion of Democrats in the state legislature. We suggest that the identity of political institutions becomes increasingly important, during periods of economic crises, when credit markets might expect that political systems can no longer delay stabilisations and must deliver policy.     

A simple model of income,aggregate demand and the process of credit creation by private banks

This paper presents a small macroeconomic model describing the main mechanisms of the process of creation by the private banking system. The model is composed of a core unit—where the dynamics of income, credit and aggregate demand are determined—and a set of sectoral accounts that ensure its stock-flow consistency. In order to grasp the role of credit and banks on the functioning of the economic system we make an explicit distinction between planned and realized variables, thanks to which, while maintaining the ex-post accounting consistency, we are able to introduce an ex-ante wedge between current aggregate income and planned expenditure. Private banks are the only economic agents capable of filling this gap through the creation of new credit. Through the use of numerical simulation we discuss the link between credit creation and the expansion of economic activity, also contributing to a recent academic debate on the relation between income, debt and aggregate demand.     

Insurance development,banking activities,and regional output: evidence from China

This paper applies panel cointegration tests and panel vector error correction models to investigate the interrelationship among the banking sector, insurance market, and regional output based on the samples from 25 Chinese provinces. We first find that there is a fairly strong long-run cointegrating relationship among real GDP, banking credit, and real insurance premiums. Second, both insurance markets (life and non-life) and the banking sector have a positive effect on real output. Third, we determine that banking activities and economic growth exhibit long-run and short-run bidirectional causalities. Fourth, there is fairly strong evidence in favor of the hypothesis for the long-run bidirectional causal relationships between insurance premiums and economic growth, taking into account the critical channel of the banking sector. Finally, we provide some beneficial suggestions for investors and policy-makers.     

The size distribution of the banking sector and the effects of monetary policy

In recent years, the industrial organization of the banking system has received a large amount of attention. In particular, it is generally viewed that the size distribution of the banking sector has changed where it is dominated by a small number of large institutions. In this paper, we develop a model of imperfectly competitive banks that differ in terms of the size of their deposit base. Such differences are important for aggregate credit market activity and the effects of monetary policy. Notably, we explain how the optimal size distribution of the banking system involves trade-offs from distortions in credit markets due to imperfect competition across banking markets. Second, the effects of monetary policy on credit market activity are weaker in an economy dominated by a small number of large banks. Empirical analysis examining the role of concentration among the current members of the European Monetary Union is consistent with the predictions of the model.     

Stock and credit market expansion and economic development in emerging markets: further evidence utilizing cointegration analysis

This paper empirically investigates the relationship between equity and credit market development and economic growth, in a sample of five very important ‘emerging’ markets. In particular, employing a multivariate time-series methodology to test for long-run trends and causality between variables that proxy for stock market development, credit market development and economic development. The results seem to suggest that equity markets have a role to play only in relatively liberalized economies, like Chile and Mexico. In financially repressed economies, like India, the equity market does not affect real sector growth. Furthermore, the banking crises in the 1980s and 1990s in Chile and Mexico resulted in a negative relation between economic growth and the credit market. In South Korea, equity and credit markets both affect economic growth, but not vice versa. In countries where the nature of the stock market has been speculative, like Taiwan, a negative relationship is detected between equity market development and economic development.