Assessment of land use and land cover changes and valuation of carbon stocks in the Sergipe semiarid region,Brazil: 1992–2030

The semiarid region in the state of Sergipe, Brazil, approximately 11,000 km², has experienced high deforestation rates in the last decades, which ultimately contribute to global climatic changes. The valuation of ecosystem services of CO₂ sequestration can support definition of environmental policies to decrease deforestation in that region. This study aimed to assess land use and land cover changes in the Sergipe semiarid region between 1992 and 2017 by applying remotely sensed data and technics; simulate the land use and land cover changes between 2017 and 2030 by applying a cellular automaton model, by assuming current land use trends (Business as Usual – BAU) as a reference scenario, and a more conservative scenario (Protected Forest – PF), in which was assumed an effective enforcement of the Brazilian Forest Code established in 2012; simulate the carbon stocks by 2017 assuming the BAU and PF scenarios by 2030, and estimate the Carbon balance between the 2030 and 2017 scenarios; and estimate the economic valuation of carbon emission and sequestration by using the InVEST software. The results showed that agriculture (cropped lands) was main driver of the landscape changes in the study area, which increased 14% by 2017, a net increase of 1494.45 km². The results showed that the total Carbon emissions would reach 736,900 Mg CO₂-eq by assuming the BAU scenario, which would increase the cost of opportunity up to US$ 17.7 million and a social carbon cost varying between US$ 10.3 and US$ 30.2 million. The restoration of the permanent preservation areas could contribute to increase Carbon sequestration up to 481,900 Mg CO₂-eq by 2030, which is equivalent cost of US$ 11.6 million. The natural landscape in the Sergipe semiarid region was strongly affected by deforestation activities occurred between 1992 and 2017. It requires, therefore, effective actions to support and promote restoration of degraded areas. The forested areas within the Sergipe semiarid region were the most affected type of vegetation because of expansion of agricultural fields soil exposures (Exposed Land). Environmental assessments based on scenarios and economic valuations can provide crucial information to support policy and decision makers to improve strategies for environmental management and conservation.     

Assessing spatial dynamics of urban growth using an integrated land use model. Application in Santiago Metropolitan Area, 2010–2045

Scenario analysis of urban dynamics from spatial land use models can support urban, planning and policy. An integrated modeling approach, linking assessment of urban spatial dynamics, was applied to the Santiago Metropolitan Area (SMA). The integrated land use change model combines, a logistic regression model, Markov chain, and cellular automata. This model was calibrated with data, from 1975 to 2010, and was used to make predictions for the years 2030 and 2045, using two datasets of, urban and non-urban explanatory variables. Urban change estimates showed the highest fit during the, model calibration phase. The true-positive proportion and standard Kappa value (κ) were of 99% and, 0.87 respectively when validating against an urban cover reference map from 2010. Urban growth was, equal to +27,000 ha (72%) for the period 1975–2010, and the city of Santiago is projected to, reach approximately 93,000 ha by 2045 (+43% from 2010). In the SMA the most important, urban growth pattern is peri-urban development, referring to widespread boundaries and higher, fragmentation in peripheral municipalities. Predictions for 2030 estimate that ∼15% of the projected, urban expansion will occur outside the boundary set by the current Regulatory Plan proposal. These, results demonstrate the capacity of the integrated model to establish comparisons with urban plans, and its utility to explain both the amount and constraints of urban growth. The integrated approach of, urban dynamic assessment using land use modeling is useful for spatiotemporal representation of, distinct urban development forms.     

Mapping changes in land use/land cover and prediction of future extension of bowé in Benin,West Africa

Desertification and land degradation are worldwide problems affecting soil, vegetation and the livelihoods of rural populations. Bowal (plural bowé) is a particular form of degraded land that occurs in tropical regions and leads to the exposure of ferricretes, which are unsuitable for farming. Bowé are more common on farmland and degraded savanna. Changes in land use/land cover were used to map a region of 6.7 million ha in northern Benin, West Africa in 1975, 1990 and 2010. The changes observed during these periods (1975–1990, 1990–2010 and 1975–2010) were used to predict the occurrence of bowé in the period up to 2050 using Markovian chain analysis. The results showed a considerable change in land use/land cover during the three periods. The types of land on which bowé occur (farmland and degraded savanna) increased in northern Benin by 5.4% per year during the period 1975–1990 and 9.5% per year during the periods 1990–2010, while the natural vegetation (forest, woodland and tree savanna) decreased by the same amount. The future scenarios also predicted the same trend. In the period 1975–1990, 1.28 million ha (26%) of natural vegetation was converted to degraded savanna and farmland while 2.23 million ha (53%) of natural vegetation was converted to degraded savanna and farmland in the period 1990–2010. Based on the dynamics recorded during the period 1975–1990 and 1990–2010 respectively, a total of 1.28 million ha (26% of the natural vegetation that was present in 1975) and 1.29 million ha (31% of the natural vegetation that was present in 1990) will be converted to farmland and degraded savanna in the study area by 2050.Thus bowalization will persist and increase in the period up to 2050. The natural vegetation could disappear if protection and restoration measures are not taken. It is thus important to take measures to stop the degradation and to implement programs to restore soils on bowé based on the soil and water conservation techniques used on highly degraded West African soils, such as zaï pit and stone rows with grass strips. Some native plants species adapted to bowalization and resistant to climate change in northern Benin (e.g. Asparagus africanus, Andropogon pseudapricus and Combretum nigricans) should be used in association with soil and water conservation techniques on bowé.     

Farmers’ land use decision-making in the context of changing land and conservation policies: A case study of Doi Mae Salong in Chiang Rai Province,Northern Thailand

In Thailand, land use planning and policy decision-making were—and to some extent still are—organized in a hierarchical and disjointed fashion. This is also true for the utilization of public lands, including forest reserves in the northern uplands that are often settled by ethnic minorities. There are, however, instances of change in land policies and regulations and in the way decisions and plans are made. Doi Mae Salong (DMS) in Northern Thailand, where there is a trend towards land use for conservation purposes, is a case in point. This paper aims to explore decision-making by farmers in DMS in the context of changing land regulations and policies from the 1950s to the present. The Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework, together with a historical perspective and with narratives on land management through time, were applied by using in-depth interviews of key informants and group farmers’ discussions as tools. The time period under investigation was divided into three periods of change: The first period, before the year 1960, was an era of security concern. In contrast, the second period, from 1961 to 1996, was an era of emerging conservation priorities. Finally, the third period, from 1997 to the present, is an era of lessons learned from the conservation era. Land use decision outcomes reveal that the decision-making processes of farmers are influenced both by the hierarchical decisions of higher authorities and by horizontal linkages among multiple stakeholders. However, while farmers participate readily in forest conservation activities, they do not play an active role in the process of changing policies.     

Will future land based food and fibre production be in family or corporate hands? An analysis of farm land ownership and governance considering farmer characteristics as choice drivers. The New Zealand case

Family farming in various guises has been the dominant ownership and governance system in primary production over recorded history. This outcome has been controlled by farmers and their families, possibly due to tradition, opportunities, personal characteristics, skill sets and the nature of primary production. Of these, it is hypothesised that the farmers’ personal characteristics play a major part in the choice, and continuance, of current ownership and governance systems. Equally as important, they, and therefore the land ownership system, play a part in the efficiency of production systems and improvement of the biological and production environment.The benefits and difficulties of commonly used ownership systems in Western society are reviewed. Using a sample of New Zealand (NZ) farms, a comparison of the managers’ features for owner/operator, partnership and corporate based systems is presented. There were significant differences in many variables including the farmers’ age, education, number of children, asset levels, years on the current farm, and similar, but more importantly, the farmers in the ownership system groups had differing personal characteristics. Significantly, despite the corporate based farms employing more professional assistance, the profit levels were similar across ownership systems leaving the farmers’ characteristics the main factors correlating with system choice. However, governance systems per se are only marginally correlated with production systems and efficiency.As successive generations of farmers are unlikely to have different characteristics, and corporate based systems continue to exhibit similar profit levels, relatively simple family based systems will continue to dominate farm land ownership and control. The trends suggest family farms will increase in size and involve family conglomerates facilitating the management of larger, and in many cases multiple, farms. While currently there are few differences in biological efficiency between ownership systems, given the efficiency benefits of size and scale, this could well change with the increase of family conglomerates. Relative to increasing corporatisation, the continuance of family based ownership and governance will also be of benefit to the environment. When developing land policies, these highlighted relationships should be taken into account. This study is a first to consider personal characteristics relative to ownership.     

Organizing anarchy: The food security–biodiversity–climate crisis and the genesis of rural land use planning in the developing world

Shortfalls in global food production, coupled with the growing visibility of climate change's disruptive effects, have underlined for many observers the importance of devoting rural lands to their ‘optimal’ use, where they can make maximal contributions to the global imperatives of feeding the human population and maintaining vital environmental services. In this context observers have endorsed rural land use planning as a way to insure that, at least in theory, lands get devoted to their best uses. In practice, land use planning in the developing world has resembled ‘organized anarchy’. Small landholders with insecure land tenure, overseas investors seeking large land deals, NGOs representing indigenous peoples, government officials, and staff from international environmental NGOs and multilateral organizations have come together in strategic action fields to struggle over and sometimes negotiate land use plans for contested landscapes. These plans represent a strategic, spatially explicit response to the climate change–biodiversity–food security crisis.     

Agricultural land use in the era of climate change: The challenge of finding ‘Fit for Purpose’ data

The paper examines drivers of change in agricultural land use in order to identify data requirements and assess data suitability. In order to assess the fitness for purpose of available data, the paper provides an overview of the sources of data for agriculture and land use in the UK, in both a contemporary and historical context. It provides a brief assessment of the state of scientific knowledge on the analysis of land use change, combined with a consideration of some of the possible advances promised by the new land use science.     

The effects of a subsidy for grassland protection on livestock numbers,grazing intensity,and herders’ income in inner Mongolia

Primary data from 262 pastoral households in Inner Mongolia are analyzed to determine the effects of a subsidy for grassland protection on livestock numbers, grazing intensity, and herders’ income. Econometric models are estimated to determine the effects of the subsidy on each component of the intensity ratio (sheep-equivalent livestock units and grassland). Results suggest the subsidy increased the quantity of grassland controlled by the household. However, the effects on livestock units are mixed, with two of the four studied prefectures (Ordos and Ulanqab) showing a positive response, and two (Hulunbuir and Xilingol) showing a negative response. Inserting the parameter estimates from the livestock, grassland, and income functions into a structural model of grazing intensity, results suggest each 1% increase in subsidy reduces grazing intensity by between 0.168% and 0.532% depending on the prefecture, and increases herders’ income by between 0.144% and 0.670%. By way of comparison, each additional year of education increases herders’ income by 8.7% and reduces grazing intensity by 3.6%. Thus, education is not to be overlooked as a policy tool for achieving conservation goals.     

Changes in coastal city ecosystem service values based on land use—A case study of Yingkou,China

The valuation of ecosystem services is intended to facilitate the rational and sustainable utilization of natural resources. However, calculating the values of natural resources is complex, and research is underway in this regard. The change of land use types can reflect the changes in the area of each ecosystem; therefore, in this study, land use changes in Yingkou (located in the south of Liaoning Province and an important port city) over a 10-year period (2004–2014) are assessed using a geographic information systems platform and the 2004, 2009 and 2014 Thematic Mapper remotely sensed images of the area. The Costanza calculation method and classification system are used to estimate changes in the total values of ecosystem services in the Yingkou area from 2004 to 2014 and to investigate the causes of these changes. The “change tendency” of particular ecological communities is calculated using the Variable coefficient, the Gini coefficient, and the Theil index. The results reveal the following: (i) The total value of ecosystem services in the Yingkou area decreased drastically (i.e., from $2567.60 million to $2127.26 million, representing a 17.2% decline) between 2004 and 2014. (ii) Aquatic ecosystem services are valued greater than terrestrial services. In Yingkou, a decline in the value of aquatic ecosystem services accounts for 88.6% of the total decrease in ecosystem service value. (iii) Land reclamation in the Yingkou urban area emerges as the primary factor influencing ecosystem service values for the various ecological communities in the region. The ecosystem service value of each ecological community is different, and the differences between the contributions made by the various communities to the total ecosystem services value are increasing over time. (iv) The decline in ecosystem service values in Yingkou is linked to urban development. Following widespread land reclamation, an increase in land area intended for urban construction is associated with a decrease in water area.     

Impacts of climate change,agroecology and socio-economic factors on agricultural land use diversity in Bangladesh (1948–2008)

The paper examines the impacts of climate change, agroecology and socio-economic factors on agricultural land use diversity (ALUD) using a panel data of 17 regions of Bangladesh covering a 61 year period (1948–2008) by applying a dynamic panel GMM estimator. Results revealed that ALUD and total rainfall have actually increased @ 0.19% and 0.02% per year whereas variability in temperature has declined @ 0.06% with significant differences across agroecological zones (AEZs). Among the climatic factors, total rainfall significantly increases ALUD. ALUD is also significantly influenced by agroecological characteristics. ALUD is significantly higher in Ganges River Floodplains but lower in Meghna River Floodplains and Chittagong Coastal Plain. Among the socio-economic factors, ALUD increases significantly with increase in the prices of vegetables, jute and phosphate fertilizer and R&D investment. ALUD significantly decreases with increase in the prices of lentil, onion, sugarcane, nitrogen and potassium fertilizers and extension expenditure. Policy implications include price policies to improve vegetable and jute prices, stabilise/reduce fertilizer prices and investments in R&D to develop crops that are suitable for high rainfall areas as well as specific AEZs in order to promote ALUD in Bangladesh.     

Water in the city: Green open spaces,land use planning and flood management – An Australian case study

With increasing worldwide recognition of the influence of urban development on the hydrological functions of water, there is growing pressure for urban planning to play a greater role in water resources management. Planning for green open spaces in particular can play an important role, as they support important ecosystem services, including those that assist in flood management. It has been argued that interconnected and strategically planned networks of green open spaces should be planned for early in land use planning and design processes, with consideration of water-related ecosystem values and landscape functions in concert with land development, growth management and physical infrastructure planning. Although there is growing recognition of the importance of green open space planning for water sensitive cities and supportive planning measures, there are few analyses of the actual inclusion of this recognition in plans and strategies, or the presence of related actions and planning mechanisms. This paper addresses this gap by comparatively analysing the approaches taken to regional green open space planning in three Australian capital city-regions. Findings indicate the acknowledgement of relationships between flood regulation and green open space planning and various associated planning mechanisms. However, there is limited explicit integration of flood management and green open spaces planning, and significant on-ground barriers to enabling this integration to occur given the legacy of past planning decisions and the lack of information to support implementation. The paper concludes with recommendations for further research to assist planning for green open spaces as an ally to ecosystem services relating to flood management.     

Land use dynamics driven by rural industrialization and land finance in the peri-urban areas of China: “The examples of Jiangyin and Shunde”

As China experienced rapid economic growth, non-agricultural land, particularly industrial land, expanded significantly within its peri-urban areas. This paper takes two typical peri-urban areas: Jiangyin in the Yangtze River Delta and Shunde in the Pearl River Delta, as cases, and applies landscape ecology indices to analyze land use dynamics through overlay of their land use maps from 2001 to 2010. This research reveals that local cadres such as township governments and village collectives utilize land finance as a strategy to contest the reshuffling of central-local power brought about by the 1994 tax-sharing scheme. Meanwhile, under the stringent land quota system, local cadres allocated most quotas to the industrial sector in order to encourage economic growth. However, the fragmented governance regime, including county/city, township to administrative village and natural village, led to land fragmentation, which had adverse impacts on sustainable development. In general, the research on land use of peri-urban areas requires a comprehensive perspective of social, economic and institutional aspects.     

An evaluation of contemporary China’s land use policy – The Link Policy: A case study from Ezhou,Hubei Province

Economic reform in China has resulted in rapid urbanisation over the past three decades, changing the urban and rural landscape dramatically. A large amount of farmland was developed, leading to conflict between construction demand and farmland protection. In response, the “Link Policy” was proposed in 2005 that seeks to concurrently preserve farmland while providing for urban expansion through land exchange. The effectiveness of the Link Policy has not been systematically investigated. The purpose of this study is to analyse and evaluate outcomes of the Link Policy objectives from both a participant and investigator’s interpretive perspective. Ezhou, the first experimental city to implement the Link Policy in Hubei Province in central China, was selected as a case study area. Eight different communities in Ezhou were visited and 160 semi-structured interviews were conducted with resettled rural residents in March 2016. A combination of interviews and investigator field observations were used to evaluate the Link Policy objectives. The results show that participants recognize and support improving rural living conditions and coordinating urban-rural development, but the Link Policy failed to achieve the objectives of preserving farmland, protecting farmers’ land use rights and interests, and facilitating agricultural production. Participants perceived concentrated resettlement communities to be more efficient in land use compared to more expansive rural settlements, but vacant apartments for commercial use in resettlement areas account for a large proportion of land suggesting inefficiency in the land exchanges. We suggest policy changes to achieve more successful implementation of the Link Policy.     

Patterns of development and conservation in agricultural lands—The case of the Tel Aviv metropolitan region 1990–2000

Until the 1990s Israel was implementing a strict agricultural land preservation policy program, rooted in Zionist ideology. This was changed when shifts in Israeli planning and land policy towards the end of the 20th century brought about accelerated growth and sprawling development in agricultural lands at the urban–rural fringe, particularly in the Tel Aviv metropolitan region (TMR). In this article we describe the background for policy shifts and the resulting impact on metropolitan growth, and then proceed to identify patterns of development in former agricultural lands and their impact on conservation, based on a study of statutory land use plans converting agricultural land to built-up uses within the TMR. It was found that most of the plans were converting large tracts of agricultural land to residential uses, characterized by low-density suburban-type family housing, thus reducing considerably the spatial conservation potential. In addition, only relative small portions of land were conserved as public open space within plans’ boundaries, and even then only about half of that was actually effective for active open space uses.     

The elephant in the scheme: Planning for and around car parking in Melbourne, 1929–2016

A relatively recent body of literature has looked critically at the role of car parking in urban areas, showing that a significant determinant of the extent of parking space is the planning system. Of particular importance are statutory minimum off-street parking requirements for new developments. If parking and parking policies are significant to urban outcomes, one question that follows is − how active a role (if any) has strategic urban planning had in car parking? In this paper we ask if, and in what ways, car parking has been a stated strategic planning interest over the course of nearly a century of planning for one city − Melbourne, Australia. Our approach has three parts: a content analysis of strategic planning documents over time; a corresponding analysis of statutory policies on the ground; and reflection on what this means for the relationships between strategy and policy.We find that extensive car parking, treated as a public good, was once specifically planned as a critical component of facilitating a car-based city. We show that car parking has receded as a strategic policy issue over time, but that statutory minimum parking requirements introduced in the 1950s continue to be entrenched. Even with more recent strategic plans seeking to curtail car use and increase urban densities, minimum parking policies originally introduced to achieve the opposite effects have remained largely intact. We argue that parking has a significant role in urban form but is, in our case study city, illustrative of gaps between strategic and statutory planning, and between planning practice and research. Whereas post-war planning instigated policy approaches to car parking as a means of planning for car use, strategic planning in Melbourne now plans around parking − the elephant in the scheme. The findings have implications for other intensifying cities with a history of minimum parking policies; as well as for cities now undergoing rapid motorisation.     

Strategic public land use assessment and planning in Victoria,Australia: Four decades of trailblazing but where to from here?

While various attempts have been made to establish strategic environmental assessment (SEA) processes and institutions in various jurisdictions within Australia, the success of these often short lived attempts at institutional approaches for managing public land use conflict has been patchy. The experience in the State of Victoria has been somewhat different, with public land use assessment and planning having been informed by a series of independent statutory bodies since 1970 (the Land Conservation Council, Environment Conservation Council, and Victorian Environmental Assessment Council). These SEA bodies have played a major role in mediating environmental conflict over public land use, and have significantly contributed to the increased size and coverage of Victoria's protected area system. However, while there has always been a statutory body in operation, the roles and responsibilities of these bodies have been subject to significant legislative change, with existing bodies replaced by new bodies in 1997 and 2001. Justifications for these reforms included changing circumstances and new understandings about environmental management, as well as changing views about public administration. As a way of contributing to enhancing the design of institutions and processes for strategic environmental assessment, this paper provides an assessment of Victoria's approach and discusses possible future directions.     

Heterogeneity in male and female farmers’ preference for a profit-enhancing and labor-saving technology: The case of Direct-Seeded Rice (DSR) in India

Labor-saving and income-increasing technologies may affect women farmers differently from men. However, very few studies explicitly account for women's preferences for new technologies. We carried out a discrete choice experiment with 337 female and 329 male farmers in Maharashtra, India, to measure their willingness to pay (WTP) for direct-seeded rice (DSR) with drum seeder and to understand the gender differences in marginal valuations of key attributes. We used the Women's Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) to collect self-reported data on the role and say of women in different domains of decision making. The respective gender roles of women and men in the family and on the farm are aligned with their preferences. Men have a greater say over how the family spends the cash. Accordingly, men tend to have a higher WTP for attributes that increase income (increase in yield) or reduce cash costs (reduction in seed rate). Women contribute a large share of the labor for transplanting rice, much of which is unpaid work on family farms. Women, therefore, seem to value labor saving more. Women in our sample were more interested in the new technology and had a higher WTP for it.     

Changes resulting from a land consolidation project (LCP) and its resource–environment effects: A case study in Tianmen City of Hubei Province,China

Land consolidation (LC) is essential for ensuring rural development and for increasing land use effectiveness. LC has been implemented in China since the mid-1990s in an attempt to increase available cropland area, reduce fragmentation and promote agricultural production capacity. The purpose of this study is to identify the changes resulting from the land consolidation project (LCP) implementation, and to develop a parametric approach to assess the resource–environment effects. This study could promote the LCP planning, and provide the support for the decision-making of the LC authorities. The Tianmen land consolidation project in Hubei Province of China was chosen as a case study. The results of the case study showed LCP implementation results in great changes in land use types and their proportions, connectivity of field-roads, irrigation systems and drainage systems, plot numbers, plot shape and plot size. These changes bring both positive and negative effects to region environmental and economic system. Positive effects were demonstrated in agricultural production capacity and agricultural production cost and the negative effects were expressed by the ecosystem services value, landscape diversity and human disturbance intensity.     

Why small farms persist? The influence of farmers’ characteristics on farm growth and development. The case of smaller dairy farmers in NZ

Human capital is an important resource in primary production impacting on farmers’ decisions and actions. Given their current and expected economic environment, farmers must use their human capital in mapping out a trajectory for their farm. This study considers particular aspects of farmers’ human capital and its influence on farm growth, or lack of it. Farmers’ characteristics as expressed through their personality, intelligence and objectives are the main human capital aspects considered in a sample of smaller NZ dairy farms. They are somewhat typical of western farmers working on smaller farms. They can be broadly classed into Expanders, Maintainers and Retractors. It is hypothesised each group will have distinct and different personal characteristics and these influence the farmers’ choice of trajectory. This is in addition to purely economic factors. It is also hypothesised the characteristics influence the farmers’ choice of development strategy and how challenges to the strategy are viewed. The data collected from the small dairy farms support the hypotheses suggesting the design of policy and extension programs must allow for these human capital drivers. Using past data, it is also shown aspects of human capital are different in large farms emphasising the same conclusion.