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1.
    
Urban development induced land transitions affect urban hydrology, resulting in increased flooding risks. Climate change-related precipitation changes are an added complexity to the flood risks of cities. This study examines the role of land use changes in determining the occurrence of urban flooding events across 42 Indian cities under current and future climate change scenarios. Landsat images for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2017 have been processed using a hybrid classification technique to determine the land use shares for all cities. A typical event-count study using newspaper archives has been conducted to create a flooding event database. A multilevel model employing logistic mixed-effects approach was used. Future projections of the occurrence of flooding events for nine models under three climate change-related Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)—2.6, 4.5, and 8.5—and three urban development scenarios have been carried out. The results suggest that cities should preserve the land uses that act as a sponge—the green, open and blue spaces. As these spaces decrease, the projected flooding events increase. Under the RCP 2.6 scenario, the number of flooding events is significantly lower (95 % confidence) than under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The expected flooding occurrences between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are not significantly different (95 % confidence) for many scenarios, suggesting that Indian cities should aim for a world temperature increase of below 2 °C, or devastating consequences are imminent. This study highlights the need for Indian cities to undertake integrated spatial planning measures for a resilient, sustainable urban future.  相似文献   

2.
    
Measuring the ability of a community to face climatic changes, or its adaptive capacity, is necessary in order to plan and guide development as the global climate continues to warm. One factor that has not been thoroughly addressed by previous attempts at measuring adaptive capacity is urbanization. This study looks to measure adaptive capacity in relation to urbanization, as many areas of the world are undergoing this rapid transition. An indicator system was created with land-use sensitive measures and applied to three different land use projection scenarios (A, BAU, and B − high, medium, and low growth, respectively) to 2030 and 2050 for two case study areas, Tamsui, Taiwan and West Palm Beach, USA. In Tamsui, the adaptive capacity decreased in all scenarios, but most dramatically for the high growth scenario. The low growth scenario decreased more slowly through each time slice. For West Palm Beach, the high growth scenario had the highest score in 2030, but declined in 2050. The medium growth Scenario BAU, also had a higher adaptive capacity score in 2030 than in 2050. The low growth Scenario B had a score that improved less dramatically but continued to rise through 2050. Scenario A would be ideal for short term gains, but its benefits would plateau in the long term. Scenario B, with conservation measures and more restricted growth would be the most ideal alternative. This study shows that urbanization has short term socioeconomic gains, but long term environmental consequences. The results also successfully incorporates the effect of land use change into an adaptive capacity indicator system, and can be applied in other localities expecting significant increases in urbanization.  相似文献   

3.
In the context of climate change, adaptation to climatic extremes, such as drought, has attracted worldwide attention, yet many practical adaptation strategies need to be examined at the local level. Based on a case study of the village of Beidian, located in a drought-prone region in northern China, this study demonstrates that when faced with multiple pressures of regional climate change, drought risk and rural poverty, reasonable adjustments in land use patterns can serve as an effective adaptation strategy in the agricultural sector. We used household questionnaires, in-depth interviews with village managers, and land use surveys at the farming plot level to quantify the relationship between land use change and drought mitigation effects. Our findings indicate that in the past decade, the farming practices in Beidian have transformed from a complete reliance on the winter wheat–summer corn rotation to a new diversified mode of apple as the main crop and corn and coarse cereals as the subsidiary crops. The current farming mode is proven to possess a stronger adaptive capacity to drought due to its higher water-saving efficiency and economic benefit, which facilitates rural poverty reduction and socio-economic development. This study presents a feasible approach to address adaptation strategies at the local level, which provides policymakers with information on how to best support farm-level adaptation and to reduce farmers’ vulnerability to climatic extremes within the broader context of climate change.  相似文献   

4.
    
Cash crop expansion has become a global land use issue in recent decades. While the enlarging cash crop cultivation brings promising profitability, it can impair the delivery of various ecosystem services, with a risk of threat to sustainability and human well being. In order to make well-informed land use policy decisions, it requires elaborate efforts to characterize the trade-off between the benefit and cost of cash crop cultivation. This paper focuses on the enlarging tea cultivation in subtropical China, using a case of Anji County. We first monitor tea expansion from 1985 to 2016 based on time-series Landsat imageries, and then analyze the subsequent changes of water conservation service through an in-field survey of soil loss. Monetary approach is finally employed to evaluate the trade-off between economic benefit and ecological cost associated with the growing age of tea plantations. Results show that tea plantations expanded rapidly from 1985 to 2016 in Anji County. Delivery of water conservation service has been significantly impaired by the conversion from natural forests to tea plantations, but it can be gradually improved during the long rotational life cycles of tea plantations. For a given plot (1 ha at moderate slope), in theory, the economic benefit and ecological cost exhibit opposite trend associated the growing age of tea plantations, and an equilibrium point is approximately achieved at the 12-year growing age. In reality, ecological cost exceeds the economic benefit throughout the study period in Anji County. More specifically, the net difference increases from 11575 Yuan in 1985–1469167 Yuan in 2016. It denotes that economic benefit fails to compromise the ecological cost of the enlarging tea cultivation in Anji County. Conflicting land use policies (ecological conservation vs cash cropping promotion) and ‘household contract responsibility’ system should account for the unbalanced relationship between economic benefit and ecological conservation. We finally propose four major options towards the win–win possibilities between economic gain and ecological conservation associated with tea cultivation.  相似文献   

5.
    
This project examines the relationship between migration, population, and economic processes, and forest cover change in Mexico from 2001 to 2010. Using multiple regression analyses with remotely-sensed, significant (p < 0.10) change in woody vegetation from 2001 to 2010 as our dependent variable, we explore how environmental, migration, demographic, and economic indicators at the national and sub-national biome scales are associated with forest cover change. Results highlight the importance of international migration in forest cover change, demonstrating that international (and internal) migration processes should also be included in LU/CC research and deforestation policy.  相似文献   

6.
Forest and pastureland soils in highland of northern Iran are being seriously degraded and destructed due to extensive agricultural activities. These land use changes are usually accompanied by decreasing in concentrations of soil organic carbon and nutrients and also deterioration of soil structure in these regions. However, studies on concentration of nutrients and carbohydrates in soils suggest that the location of nutrients within aggregates of each size should be determined. This study was to evaluate the nutrient elements and carbohydrate distributions within water-stable aggregates (WSA) of virgin forest and pasture lands under different land uses in Alborz maintain range, northern Iran. In September 2006, soil samples were collected from depths of 0–20 cm in Typic Haploxerolls soils. The overall pattern indicated that the mean weight diameter (MWD) and WSA were greater in the virgin pasture and forest soils compared with the adjacent cultivated (ex-forest and ex-pasture) soils and aggregates of >1.0 mm size were dominant in the virgin soils, whereas the cultivated soils comprised aggregates of the size ≤0.5 mm. Distribution of organic carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and carbohydrates within the WSA showed preferential enrichment of these parameters in the macroaggregate fraction (4.75–1.0 mm) for the virgin soils and microaggregate fraction (>0.25 mm) for the exposed soils. Cultivation decreased the concentration of carbohydrates by 23.6% and 20.6% in ex-forest and ex-pasture lands, respectively. Average distribution of total exchangeable bases within WSA showed that the cultivation of forest and pasture soils significantly led to reduce in these nutrient in the 4.75–2.0 mm fraction and increase in concentration of these exchangeable cations in <0.25 mm fractions. In general, results indicated that cultivation significantly led to 71% and 6% reductions in total exchangeable bases within the 4.75–2.0 and <0.25 mm aggregate fraction, respectively, for virgin soil. Since smaller aggregates are preferentially removed by erosion, this study emphasizes the need for sustainable soil management practices that they will minimize nutrient loss when forest or pastures lands are converted to croplands.  相似文献   

7.
We propose a simple heuristic that uses open-access models and government data on agricultural activities to estimate total carbon emissions from agriculture, the gross carbon benefit and the opportunity cost per tonne CO2-e from revegetating to environmental plantings or plantation forestry. We test this across ten areas of mixed land-use that represent diverse Australian agricultural systems along a rainfall transect. The local value of agricultural production was obtained from government statistics and used to estimate the current economic opportunity cost of converting cleared agricultural land to mixed environmental plantings for carbon sequestration. Gross carbon benefit from revegetation was closely related to current agricultural use, as was financial opportunity cost. These were not related simply to site productivity potential or rainfall. The proportion of land cleared for agriculture that would need to be re-vegetated to achieve a localised zero-carbon land-use scenario was calculated by the ratio of current agricultural emissions to gross carbon benefit from revegetation; this ranged from 13% to 66% for groups of agricultural industries across Australian rainfall transects. While the heuristic does not capture the detail of models built specifically for local research questions it does provide a different lens on the questions policy makers and land managers may ask about the costs and benefits of revegetating agricultural land, and provides open-access methods to guide them.  相似文献   

8.
    
This paper evaluates the role of trade liberalization and agricultural intensification in mitigating climate change cause and effects on land use and emissions using a computable general equilibrium model. Our results indicate that cropland expansion triggered by climate-induced crop productivity changes results in deforestation and increases emissions in South Asia and globally. Global full trade liberalization on all goods is the optimum policy for South Asia despite significant global deforestation, but for the world, unilateral partial trade liberalization on all goods is a more appropriate policy while ensuring a considerable emissions reduction for South Asia. These results indicate that mitigation responses to climate change are location specific and no one trade policy is suitable at the regional and global levels. Lastly, agricultural intensification by improving productivity growth is the best strategy in land-based emissions mitigation, thereby avoiding the transformation of forest and pasture lands for agricultural cultivation both at regional and global levels.  相似文献   

9.
    
Governments globally are developing increasingly ambitious carbon emissions reduction schemes that include significant emissions offset credits for forest-based carbon sequestration. Such strategies can present significant challenges in highly modified and intensively farmed regions where forest land use opportunity and establishment costs are high. This article evaluates the economics of land-use change via active afforestation for local carbon abatement in the Australian state of South Australia, a region with high supply costs representative of long-established temperate farming regions. We found that there is no economically viable abatement below $38 tCO2e−1, however up to 154 Mt CO2e of abatement could be available up to prices of $50 tCO2e−1.Variation in current Australian Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) policy parameters related to permanence and crediting periods were also assessed. Recent ERF contracts involve a 100-year land-use change commitment (permanence period) and a 25-year crediting period where payments for growth in carbon from the land-use change is contracted. We compared outcomes of this arrangement to a scenario with equal 100-year permanence and crediting periods. We found substantial differences in carbon supply at some price points for a 25 rather than a 100-year crediting period. Under ERF parameters the first economically viable revegetation options occur at $42 tCO2e−1, however, we found a 69 percent reduction in economically viable supply at a carbon price of $50 tCO2e−1. The results highlight the role offset crediting policy can have on dis-incentivising land-use change and the need for landholders to be compensated fully for temporal opportunity costs.  相似文献   

10.
    
The Central American Dry Corridor (CADC) is a trans-border region characterized by climatic and ecological continuities. It is expected to experience rising aridity and severe hydro-climatic events due to climate change. Subsistence agriculture and other rural livelihoods to which land cover is central are widely practiced in this impoverished territory of approximately eleven million people.The CADC’s land cover was profiled to determine: a) how it differs from Non-CADC areas, and b) the role of land use in shaping these differences. Spatial autocorrelation analysis using satellite data showed that forest cover is a third less prevalent in the CADC than in the Non-CADC while the share of mosaic vegetation and mosaic cropland is nearly double. A naturally prevalent cover type in the CADC, tropical dry forest (TDF), has been largely eliminated.The significantly lesser proportion of forest and greater percentage of coverage consistent with agriculture and ranching implicate land use conversion, specifically deforestation for agricultural expansion and cattle ranching, in shaping CADC land coverage. The process began in the mid-1800s when small-scale agriculturalists migrated to the region followed by large-scale export crop and beef production, primarily for international markets. Deforestation peaked after WWII, concluding by the 1990s with the conversion of most woodlands. Similar patterns now threaten forests along the Caribbean coast.Traditional land use practices cannot sustain local communities or preserve the resource base, thereby contributing to rural outmigration. Adopting sustainable practices and promoting livelihoods strategies leading to forest regeneration will be fundamental for CC adaptation in the CADC.  相似文献   

11.
随着地理信息系统的发展,其成果广泛应用于土地利用监管、生态环境监测以及农业等各个方面。依据达州市2013年和2020年土地利用情况的矢量数据,通过土地利用动态度和主成分分析的方法,对达州市土地利用变化状况及其驱动因素进行分析。结果显示:达州市未利用土地占比大,建设用地持续增长;而驱动因素主要有社会经济发展、人口增长和政策。  相似文献   

12.
以贵阳市为研究区域,在分析土地利用变化的基础上,从资源保护性、生态合理性、经济可行性、社会接受性等方面构建土地可持续利用指标体系.通过土地可持续利用综合评价模型和土地可持续利用障碍因素诊断模型,评价贵阳市土地可持续利用水平,分析其土地可持续利用的障碍因素,并提出相应的对策.  相似文献   

13.
    
The Special Issue (SI) “Environmental Risk Mitigation for Sustainable Land Use Development” presents seventeen interrelated papers addressing the key concept of environmental risk mitigation and sustainable land use development. The issue argues that risk mitigation depends directly on the risk assessment analysis and the quality of applied measures. Therefore, the more precise are risk assessment conclusions, the better the risk mitigation measures would be. This collection of papers follows the vision of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (Sendai Framework) which states that the integration of sustainable development objectives into disaster risk mitigation and adaptation at all levels and at all stages of policy action are of paramount importance for the sustainability of our communities. The final purpose of the issue is to address the mutual roles of land use policy on environmental risk mitigation and adaptation, especially disaster risks.  相似文献   

14.
    
In rural Ecuador and elsewhere in Latin America, the departure of migrants and the receipt of migrant remittances have led to declining rural populations and increasing cash incomes. It is commonly assumed that these processes will lead to agricultural abandonment and the regrowth of native vegetation, thus undermining traditional livelihoods and providing a boon for biodiversity conservation. However, an increasing number of household-level studies have found mixed and complex effects of out-migration and remittances on agriculture. We advance this literature by using household survey data and satellite imagery from three study areas in rural Ecuador to investigate the effects of migration and remittances on agricultural land use. Multivariate methods are used to disaggregate the effects of migration and remittances, to account for other influences on land use and to correct for the potential endogeneity of migration and remittances. Contrary to common assumptions but consistent with previous studies, we find that migrant departure has a positive effect on agricultural activities that is offset by migrant remittances. These results suggest that rural out-migration alone is not likely to lead to a forest transition in the study areas.  相似文献   

15.
Shortfalls in global food production, coupled with the growing visibility of climate change's disruptive effects, have underlined for many observers the importance of devoting rural lands to their ‘optimal’ use, where they can make maximal contributions to the global imperatives of feeding the human population and maintaining vital environmental services. In this context observers have endorsed rural land use planning as a way to insure that, at least in theory, lands get devoted to their best uses. In practice, land use planning in the developing world has resembled ‘organized anarchy’. Small landholders with insecure land tenure, overseas investors seeking large land deals, NGOs representing indigenous peoples, government officials, and staff from international environmental NGOs and multilateral organizations have come together in strategic action fields to struggle over and sometimes negotiate land use plans for contested landscapes. These plans represent a strategic, spatially explicit response to the climate change–biodiversity–food security crisis.  相似文献   

16.
The conservation and management of protected areas in urban settings has become increasingly challenging with dynamics over land use change in adjacent urban areas being highly relevant to, but at times conflicting with, the protected area. This study seeks to better understand the implications of land use change processes to urban protected area management through the case study of the Las Piñas – Parañaque Critical Habitat and Ecotourism Area (LPPCHEA) in Metro Manila, Philippines. Factors and processes influencing land use change and protected area management and the impact of stakeholders’ perceptions on protected area were analyzed. The urban protected area in itself has limited influence on its surrounding urban areas, as land use change in these areas is shaped more by social, economic and policy/institutional factors occurring within the context of urban-regional development. The study also found that land use conflict is evident in an urban protected area due to the competing ecosystem services derived by various stakeholders. This discord is deepened by the lack of coordination between land use planning and protected area management. Integrating protected area management with land use planning through legally binding instruments, specific timeframes and clear internal procedures can help resolve land use conflict for an urban protected area at the strategic or policy level.  相似文献   

17.
Recent demographic change, mainly characterised by a decreasing and ageing population, is seen as one of the main factors for future land use development in Europe. However, there is still insufficient evidence about the relationship between demographic changes and land use changes since quantitative studies dealing with these interactions are still rare. We aim to fill that gap by presenting the first comprehensive study that investigates statistical relationships and spatial differentiations between demographic and land use change for the whole of Germany. Our study is based on data for the period from 1995/1996 to 2003/2004. The results clearly show that in most growing regions in the West of Germany a correlation was found between land use, natural population growth and net-migration, whereas for land use change in the shrinking regions in the East of Germany economic variables are of noticeable importance. A cluster analysis reveals “gaining” and “shrinking” regions concerning both urbanisation and demographic change. Neither a decreasing nor an ageing population imply reduced land consumption for housing and transportation. Furthermore we found a decreasing settlement population density for almost all German districts regardless of population growth or shrinkage.  相似文献   

18.
The EU offers a complex system of rural development interventions as part of its Common Agricultural Policy. A Common Monitoring and Evaluation Framework (CMEF) has been developed for the programming period 2007–2013 in response to challenges faced with the evaluation of rural development measures in earlier programming periods.Statistical and multivariate analysis of CMEF baseline (regional characteristics) and input (expenditure) indicator data at the NUTS2 subdivision level is used to compare four typical expenditure allocation patterns (Competitiveness, Environment, Rural Viability, Equal Spending) in terms of associated regional characteristics and development trends.The results suggest expenditure priorities are generally in line with regional needs and that there are some positive development trends, for example higher increase of agricultural labour productivity in the Competitiveness Group, while for environmental topics the level of data required remains unsatisfactory for trend assessment. 17% of the regions have a budget allocation pattern deviating from other regions with similar characteristics, which could indicate ineffective priority setting. Consistent CMEF data over multiple programming periods would be desirable to support the relationships found and to facilitate time series analysis, but this seems questionable given that the European Commission has discontinued the CMEF in 2014 with further adaptations for the 2014–2020 programming period underway.  相似文献   

19.
This article investigates land transactions in relation to intended land use change from a micro-scale perspective. A better understanding of land transactions is important for understanding and influencing how land is used. The aim is to explore how the different aspects and their interrelations influence landowner behaviour during land transactions initiated by the government. The study draws on 42 explorative interviews with land purchasers, land policy experts, planning professionals and local farmers.The study shows that uncertainty, and feelings of justice are pivotal aspects during land transactions. Moreover, land transactions are co-evolving with the planning process. Landowners exhibit strategic behaviour based on their personal situation and their expectations on uncertain aspects. The strategies are strongly interrelated with the evolution of land use change. Land use changes are both input on which actors base their strategies, as well as the outcome of those strategies. The aspects found in this study were strongly interrelated and changed over time. Some aspects were context dependent, while others are expected to influence land transactions in general. In this light, the strength of a successful planner is twofold: on the one hand a planner needs to be a good communicator; on the other hand a planner should be able to deal with uncertainty and expectations during plan processes.  相似文献   

20.
    
The novelty of this study lies in the analyses of legislation concerning land use policies by examining the specific boundary between land ownership and land take. The basic motive was that the European Commission (EC) withdrew the Soil Framework Directive (SFD) in 2014 following the objections of certain Member States (MS) who countered that as most lands are privately owned, they should not fall under the remit of public governance. Since the withdrawal of the SFD land take is an issue receiving more attention. The legal content of ownership rights has been subjected to constant debate in the context of land-use policies and planning practices, which raises the questions of who decides how the land can be used and whether administrative authorities give priority to non-agricultural uses. Our study seeks to explore these issues through the lens of property law by comparing different legislations on access to land on three levels of policy implementation: the EU, the national, and the local levels. MS legislations are highlighted through the example of Hungary in two aspects: (1) regulation regarding Access to Land and Land Ownership Rights (ALOR), and (2) legislation and results of the LANDSUPPORT decision support system concerning Land Take Changes (LTC). We designed figures to demonstrate how policymakers can use the new LANDSUPPORT platform to show the gaps and inconsistencies among the above aspects. We found that the legislative regulations concerning private land use to achieve soil protection objectives remain the weakest link in the environmental protection legislation of the EU. Anxieties concerning built-in legal guarantees on each of the studied levels actualise our research. Currently, global land management is not on the political table although common European legislation might be able to preserve land for agricultural use.  相似文献   

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