Tourism development,energy consumption and Environmental Kuznets Curve: Trivariate analysis in the panel of developed and developing countries

The study investigates the relationship between economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions, tourism development, energy demand, domestic investment and health expenditures with an aim to test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in the panel of three diversified World's region including East Asia & Pacific, European Union and High income OECD and Non-OECD countries. The study covers the period of last nine years i.e. 2005–2013. The study used the principal component analysis (PCA) to construct tourism development index which is the amalgamation of number of tourists' arrivals, tourism receipts and international tourism expenditures. The results validate the inverted U-shaped relationship between carbon emissions and per capita income in the region. The results further substantiate the following causal relationships i.e. i) tourism-induced carbon emissions, ii) energy-induced emissions, iii) investment – induced emissions, iv) growth led tourism, v) investment led tourism and vi) health led tourism development in the region.     

Effects of budgetary constraints on international tourism expenditures

This paper implements a logistic transition regression model to examine the relationships between GDP per capita and international tourism expenditures across countries in 2001–2010 by types of savings regimes. While studies have focused on the effect of income on international tourism expenditures, none consider the nonlinear smooth transition status of savings and its impacts on discretionary spending and hence expenditure on tourism. The impact of income on tourism expenditures can vary under different savings regimes. The results show that in a low savings regime the effect of an increase in the GDP per capita on international tourism expenditures is more pronounced. In a high-savings regime, there is strong motivation for precautionary savings and tourism is considered a luxury; therefore such spending is crowded out by an increase in savings as GDP per capita increases. Although international tourism expenditures also increase with GDP per capita, they do so at a slower rate. These findings establish an accurate understanding of the effects of savings on international tourism expenditures.     

Does a low-cost carrier lead the domestic tourism demand and growth of New Zealand?

This study aims to provide a better understanding of the impact of New Zealand's low-cost carrier (LCC) on domestic tourism demand and growth. The panel data regression model and the two-stage least-square (2SLS) model (aims to control for the endogeneity effects) are used to empirically investigate the impact of LCC and the key determinants affecting New Zealand's domestic tourism using five regions (Auckland, Canterbury/Christchurch, Dunedin, Queenstown, and Wellington) from June 2009 to July 2015. The findings suggested that the LCC's services, GDP per capita, the regional tourism indicators (accommodation, and food and beverage), and land transport costs affected New Zealand's domestic tourism. The policy implications of the key finding regarding the significance of the LCC's operations on New Zealand's domestic tourism (local/regional tourism authorities and tourism operators), airline competition between incumbent airline (Air New Zealand) and the LCC (Jetstar), and airport authorities are discussed.     

Nonlinear ARDL estimation of tourism demand for Puerto Rico from the USA

This study estimates the long-run demand for tourism for Puerto Rico (1970–2016) from the USA. Since income elasticity may not be symmetric through business cycles, it becomes necessary to account for the asymmetric impact of changes in income on tourism demand. To this end, the study utilizes the nonlinear ARDL framework of Shin et al. (2014) to investigate the asymmetric cointegration. The results indicate the existence of an asymmetric or nonlinear cointegration relationship between Puerto Rico's tourism demand and its determinants. The long-run asymmetric income elasticities suggest that a 1% increase in US's real per capita GDP leads to a 1.9% increase in Puerto Rico's tourism earnings, while a 1% decrease in US's real per capita GDP produces a 4.8% reduction in tourism receipts.     

社会交往、旅游情境对旅游需求的影响研究--基于春节“黄金周”的实证分析

以往关于消费者需求行为的研究多基于传统经济学框架的设定展开,认为影响消费者旅游需求的主要因素包含收入、目的地吸引力、交通等,普遍忽视了消费过程中的社会交往和具体情境。文章在理论分析的基础上,提出了若干命题,将消费者收入、社会交往和旅游情境等因素纳入旅游消费者需求的模型中,提出了若干研究命题。依据2014年春节“黄金周”旅游需求调研数据,采用排序选择模型验证了相关命题的正确性。计量结果表明,个人经济因素对我国消费者春节“黄金周”旅游需求影响较小,家庭结构、同伴等社会交往因素是影响其旅游需求的重要因素;我国消费者对于春节“黄金周”出游过程中遭遇的拥堵、旅游市场混乱等旅游情境问题具有一定的容忍度,但是,严重供需失衡导致的旅游情境问题依然对其旅游需求产生了显著的影响。     

The Impact of Mexico's Currency Devaluations on Revenue from U.S. Tourists

U.S. visitors to Mexico increased by 120% between 1970 and 1987. Mexico's booming travel industry has increased nominal revenues from the U.S. by 375% and expenditures per tourist by 116% during this time period. Adjusting these data by a ratio index gives a more vivid picture of the impact of inflation and the peso devaluations over time. Trends in U.S. tourist expenditures to Mexico are shown to parallel exactly the movements of the ratio index bases on relative prices and exchange rates. Our modified regression analyses indicate that both real U.S. disposable income and the ratio index are excellent independent variables for the purpose of predicting number and expenditures of U.S. tourists to Mexico. Further, U.S. tourism numbers and expenditures are elastic with respect to each of these variables. The inconsistency between these results and past estimate may be the result of multucollinearity or autocorrelation in their data.     

Major Determinants of International Tourism Demand for South Korea:

This study identifies the major determinants of international inbound tourist expenditures in South Korea using regression models. Income, relative prices, exchange rates, promotional expenditures, and dummy variables are incorporated into the models. The empirical results show that the coefficient of income was statistically significant and was highly elastic. The coefficients of relative prices and exchange rates were generally significant and elastic. The coefficient of promotional expenditures was found to be significant, but appeared to be inelastic. The findings of this study provide useful marketing information on how to promote international tourism demand for Korea.     

Devaluation and US tourism expenditure in Mexico

Studies that investigate the factors affecting US tourism expenditures in Mexico generally regard relative prices in these countries as sensitive determinants. The findings of inelasticity of expenditures of American tourists with respect to prices in the Mexican interior and border in several studies published in the 1980s are debatable. This study evaluates the impact of recent peso devaluations by adjusting 1970–1982 US tourism expenditures by an index that combines the Consumer Price Index in dollars, the CPI in pesos, and the exchange rate. The results here clearly indicate that US expenditures in the interior and on the border are price sensitive and have a strong positive trend reaction to devaluation in both nominal and real terms. Border expenditures clearly exceed interior expenditures and are more sensitive to exchange rate changes than expenditures in interior Mexico.     

Modeling Japanese Tourism Demand for Asian Destinations: A Dynamic AIDS Approach

This paper investigates the expenditure allocation of Japanese international tourism in its five major Asian destinations, China, Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. The dynamic of linear approximation the almost ideal demand system is used to determine the long-run equilibrium while the short-run dynamics are represented by an error correction mechanism. The empirical results indicate that the changes in market shares of Japanese outbound tourism are significantly influenced by the changes in tourists' expenditure, rather than the changes in relative tourism prices. The results show that Japan expenditure rises, the market share of Taiwan and Thailand declines, while Korea benefits. In addition, price competitiveness is important for Japanese demand for Korea, but is relatively unimportant for the other destinations.     

Shifting patterns and determinants of Asia-pacific tourism to Australia, 1990–2010

Australia is an increasingly important international holiday destination. Especially travel demand from Asia-Pacific countries has increased, which has led Australian policy-makers to believe the Asia-Pacific region will remain the largest growth market for holiday tourists. This article first presents an overview of the evolution and shifting geographical patterns of Asia-Pacific tourism to Australia between 1990 and 2010, and relies on this to explore the major determinants underlying these changes using a bootstrapped loglinear multiple regression analysis. Results indicate that income (GDP per capita) remains the most important factor explaining tourism demand, albeit that the Australian holiday market is becoming increasingly mature. Distance, as a proxy for travel costs, has large negative elasticity that has slightly increased over time as the effects of air transport liberalization have been off-set by oil prices’. The paper is concluded with an outlook on some possible opportunities and challenges for future tourism demand to Australia.     

The impact of changes in household vacation expenditures on the travel and hospitality industries

Two large tourism industries, travel and hospitality, are strongly affected by changes in household demand for vacations. In recent years, rising income and declining prices per unit of quality have led to changes in patterns of household vacation consumption. To understand the impact of these changes on the travel and hospitality industries, we develop a theoretical model distinguishing between travel and on-site expenditures and apply it to Israeli data. We find that under certain circumstances, the changes in income and prices are responsible for a shift toward multiple, short vacations. This trend can be a boon to the travel industry but a disadvantage for the hospitality industry. Both industries are expected to face a rise in the demand for high-quality products.     

Modeling Tourist Flows to Indonesia and Malaysia

Summary

The purpose of this study was to examine the major factors that influence the flow patterns of tourists from six important tourist-generating countries to Indonesia and Malaysia. The primary determinants included in the demand models were income, prices, and time trend. Two models that employed different indicators for the price variable were estimated; one with exchange rates in addition to relative prices, whereas the other included only an exchange rate adjusted-relative price variable. Annual time-series data covering the period 1980 to 1997 were used for estimation. The results generally indicated that the factors provide reasonably good explanations for the demand for Indonesian and Malaysian tourism. The measure of thejoint effect of the changes in exchange rates and relative prices also seems to be a better indicator for the price variable for both destination countries. The study has important marketing implications for the tourism industries in Indonesia and Malaysia.     

Tourism expenditures and crisis transmission: A general equilibrium GVAR analysis with network theory

According to the World Tourism Organization, during the last decades, tourism has become one of the largest and most dynamic economic industries in the world. In this work, we employ a Network General Equilibrium GVAR model to analyze the impact of tourism expenditures on GDP and our approach allows for the existence of dominant economies in the system. The model is estimated simultaneously as a system of equations for a large panel of world economies and the results show that the less developed economies are quite vulnerable to changes in the tourism expenditures of the dominant economies. Meanwhile, USA is found to be largely unaffected by shocks in the tourism expenditures of the less developed economies.     

中国城市居民旅游需求函数的实证研究

旅游需求问题是旅游研究的核心问题之一,中国居民旅游需求函数是旅游需求问题研究的基础,旅行成本模型广泛地被用于估计居民旅游需求函数。文章基于停留时间内生的旅行成本模型,在考虑游客动态出游行为的情形下,使用中国39个城市2000~2007年间国内旅游抽样调查数据,采用广义矩估计方法对中国居民旅游需求函数进行了估计。研究表明,旅行成本、时间成本和居民收入是影响居民旅游需求的关键因素;旅游需求收入弹性的绝对值大于旅行成本弹性的绝对值,城市旅游产业发展的居民收入激励政策较之于成本竞争策略更有效;旅游需求的旅行成本弹性和时间成本弹性差异显著,减少旅行成本政策较之于缩短旅行时间政策更能提高城市的旅游收入;旅游需求和停留时间的影响因素存在异同,扩大旅游需求和延长停留时间的选择面临"两难",但也可"两顾"。     

出境旅游需求的影响因素--兼论发展中经济体与发达经济体的异同

根据微观经济学的需求理论,结合相关研究进展,文章构建了包括基本经济因素（收入和相对价格）、对外开放度、旅游业发展水平、人口统计特征、突发事件等变量在内的出境旅游需求模型,以74个国家/地区1995—2013年的数据为样本,分析了发达经济体和发展中经济体出境旅游需求影响因素的总体特征与异同。结果表明,收入和价格是影响出境旅游需求的决定性因素,对外开放度、旅游业发展水平、人口统计特征及突发事件等其他因素对出境旅游需求同样具有一定的影响。其中,收入、价格以及产业发展水平对发展中经济体出境旅游需求的影响作用相对更大,而对外开放度和人口统计特征（就业水平、年龄结构和受教育水平）对发达经济体出境旅游需求的影响更加显著。     

Valuing Consumer Surplus for the Beach Resources at Ko Chang National Marine Park in Thailand

This paper presents recreation trip demand models from three beaches administrated by the Ko Chang National Marine Park in Thailand. In specific, we apply Poisson (POI) and negative binomial (NB) count data models to estimate consumer surplus (CS) attributed to tourism development. An onsite stratified random sample of 409 beach visitors was administrated along the shorelines of the marine park. The results show that the estimated CS of a Thai visitor is $244 per trip and $256 per trip, respectively, under POI and NB models. In contrast, the CS per trip of a foreign visitor is double that of the Thai visitor's. As all the potential beach visitors’ CS counted, it suggests that the beaches along the Ko Chang's coastline are highly valuable public resources. As a result, several important policy-making comments regarding the coastal park management are addressed.     

Transport infrastructure and tourism development

This paper investigates the significance of transport infrastructure as a factor in destination development, showing it to be part of the classical demand for international tourism functions. An application involving the island of Mauritius is presented, whereby total tourist arrivals are modeled. The findings show that tourists from Europe/America and Asia are particularly sensitive to the island’s transport infrastructure. Those from Europe/America are also sensitive to its nontransport infrastructure. Both types of infrastructure, as well as income of tourists, distance, and relative prices are important ingredients in their own respect in the tourism demand equation. Mauritius is an expanding destination, with the European and American markets being most promising.     

Tourism and the economy of Puerto Rico: an input-output approach

Tourist expenditure in Puerto Rico increased by 10.1% per annum during the 1970s, contributing significantly to the economy. Using the econometric model of the Puerto Rico Planning Board (outlined in an appendix) this paper aims to analyse the impact of tourism on the gross domestic product (GDP), the output, and the employment of Puerto Rico. Results show that although tourism only accounts for about 5.0% of GDP, it is important in terms of its direct and indirect linkages to other sectors of the economy, and also has significant impact on job creation.     

A dynamic panel data analysis of snow depth and winter tourism

This paper analyses the relationship between the number of overnight stays and different measures of snow depth based on panel data covering 28 Austrian ski resorts for the period 1986/87–2005/06. Using the dynamic heterogeneous panel data technique of Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999), we found a long-run relationship between the number of overnight stays, amount of snow depth, weighted real GDP per capita of the major countries of visitor origin, and price index of accommodation services. The long-run elasticity of overnight stays with respect to snow depth was 0.10. However, for high-elevation resorts the evolution of the number of overnight stays was independent of variations in snow depth. Furthermore, the long-run elasticity of the number of overnight stays with respect to weighted real GDP per capita of the country's visitors was much greater for high-elevation resorts than for low-elevation resorts. Finally, early Easter holidays were significantly and positively related to winter tourism demand.