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1.
Increased demand for both agricultural production and forest restoration may lead to increased competition for land in the next decades. Sustainably increasing cattle ranching productivity is a potential solution to reconcile different land uses, while also improving biodiversity conservation and the provision of ecosystem services. If not strategically implemented in integration with complementary policies, sustainable intensification can however result in negative environmental, economic and social effects. We analyzed the potential for sustainable intensification as a solution for a conflict between agricultural expansion and forest restoration in the Paraitinga Watershed at the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, a global biodiversity hotspot. In addition, we provide policy recommendations for sustainable development in the region, based on interviews with producers and local actors. We found that the Paraitinga Watershed has the potential to increase its cattle-ranching productivity and, as a result, relinquish spared land for other uses. This was true even in the most conservative intensification scenario considered (50% of the maximum potential productivity reached), in which 76,702 ha of pastures can be spared for other uses (46% of total pasture area). We found that restoration, apiculture and rural tourism are promising activities to promote sustainable development in the region, thus potentially increasing food production and mitigating competition for land. Our study shows that results from socioeconomic interviews and biophysical modelling of potential productivity increases offer robust insights into practical solutions on how to pursue sustainable development in one of the world’s most threatened biodiversity hotspots.  相似文献   

2.
水足迹视角下京津冀县域粮食作物水土资源匹配格局   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
[目的]农业水土资源是粮食生产的决定因素,探明京津冀粮食生产中水土资源匹配格局特征对区域经济发展有深远的影响。[方法]文章从水足迹的视角出发,分析了1980—2018年京津冀县域5种主要粮食作物(小麦、玉米、稻谷、大豆、薯类)的产量、播种面积、水足迹、耕地面积的时空变化,运用水土匹配系数法及ArcGIS深入研究了1983年、1998年、2003年和2016年水土资源匹配格局,并进一步剖析区域农业水土匹配对农业生产的影响。[结果](1)当前京津冀水土匹配系数区间为[0.02,1.25],超出区间范围[0.281, 0.431];粮食生产格局与水土匹配系数空间格局均为“冀中南高、北部低”。(2)研究时段内,京津冀粮食总产量提高1.14倍,播种总面积降低19.28%,粮食单产量显著提高;灌溉提高粮食单产量,水土匹配系数与粮食单产量呈正相关。(3) 1980—2019年京津冀5种作物蓝水足迹均值(136.64亿m3)是绿水足迹均值(99.60亿m3)的1.37倍,各作物水足迹变化不同,间接反映地区农业种植结构的改变。(4)京津冀水足迹总量提高2.45倍,耕地总量下降20.59%,水土匹配系数变...  相似文献   

3.
Traditionally, agricultural land-use change (LUC) analyses focus on the conversion of natural land to agriculture especially in developing countries. Studies considering recent agricultural LUC (e.g., to built-up land) for the last two decades in more stable agricultural systems in Western Europe are mostly missing for the regional scale. Major LUC pathways, their drivers and potential counteracting factors such as subsidies or an increasing demand for regional agricultural products should be analyzed.Using the Metropolitan Region of Nuremberg in Germany, we quantified (i) major pathways of agricultural LUC with a transition matrix, and (ii) spatial patterns of agricultural LUC with optimized hot-spot analyses. (iii) We used boosted regression trees (BRT) to identify factors which foster agricultural LUC towards settlement and forest as well as semi-natural open land. Results for the last 15 years showed a considerable decline of agricultural land due to afforestation (3.1%) and due to settlement and infrastructure development (2.7%), which were the main LUC pathways. Both settlement development and afforestation concentrated at existing hotspots of urban development and in forest-dominated areas. Settlement-driven agricultural LUC was largely dependent on population density and development and independent from agricultural or biophysical parameters. Forest-driven LUC was mostly explained by agricultural parameters (i.e., low land rents and biophysical factors such as high slopes). Governance instruments such as regional planning and payments for maintaining agriculture on marginal land did not seem to maintain a balanced spatial distribution of agricultural land. If not improved, settlement development will considerably outcompete agriculture in prosperous sub-regions. Economic constraints will force farmers to abandon agriculture for forest on marginal locations at the cost of an intact cultural landscape.  相似文献   

4.
Tea expansion, a typical process of regional land use and cover change (LUCC), has raised great concerns on regional sustainability. In this regard, exploring the determinants of tea expansion should provide critical implications for land use policy. It has been widely recognized that LUCC interacts nonlinearly with a set of determinants and their feedbacks should be rather complex. Policy makers are now facing the challenge to identify, apportion, and compare the determinants of regional tea expansion for designing more targeted political intervenes. Our paper utilizes a robust tool, the random forest (RF) regression in particular, to explore the determinants of tea expansion across two periods (1985–2007 and 2007–2016) in Anji County, a typical region of tea production in subtropical China. More specifically, tea is extracted from Landsat imageries and total tea cultivated area acts as the dependent variable. Exploratory variables include 38 potential determinants and these determinants are divided into two categories (biophysical and socioeconomic) at two levels (pixel and village). We obtain some similar findings, though the relative importance of determinants varies with the two periods. In general, biophysical determinants (e.g., topography, soil type, land use in the neighborhood) present greater relative importance than the socioeconomic determinants in both periods. In period 1985–2007, biophysical determinants at pixel level are more essential in governing tea expansion. In period 2007–2016, the relative importance of pixel level biophysical determinants is comparable with that of the village level determinants. Comparisons of the two periods indicate that relative importance of soil type and socioeconomic proximity becomes greater in period 2007–2016, while that of the total employees and non-agricultural population proportion becomes lower. Partial dependency plots are further drawn to visualize the marginal effect of each determinant. We finally propose three options for land use policy towards sustainability. Our study demonstrates that the RF regression is efficient for policy makers to understand the determinants of tea expansion with a nonlinear and complex nature.  相似文献   

5.
The expansion dynamics of the agricultural surface is a complex process, since it requires decisions among different actors under a multitude of socioeconomic and natural conditions, expectations, and risks. This paper shows that despite this complexity, and at odds with the intuition, the density of agricultural lands and the government spending to foster agriculture around a human settlement displays a simple power-law relationship regarding the distance to such a settlement. The theoretical proof of this relationship is based on theoretical and empirical findings made by several authors on the expansion of population centers, river networks, species and ecosystem’s distribution. The empirical proof is made by fitting a simple power-law model having as response variables: density of agricultural land; government spending coverage, and government spending per unit of agricultural surface, while the distance to the centroid settlement is used as independent variable. Results show that the scaling exponents of the power-law relationship estimated from those models, with data from rural settlements in Mexico, are similar statistically to the expected values from theoretical models for the three expansion processes tested. Three applications of the scale-invariant attribute characterizing the expansion process of agricultural lands are presented:
  • i)monitoring agricultural activities at the territories;
  • ii)a proxy to estimate the expected growth of the agricultural surface; and
  • iii)a typology to characterize government assistance at local level.
  相似文献   

6.
The West African Middle Belt is an area of limited resources, low population density and a severe agricultural climate. Many reasons have been given for the poor state of agriculture in this region, but a look at the agricultural communities of tropical Africa clearly shows that land use cannot be explained by physical and environmental factors alone. For this reason, decision makers must increasingly take into account socioeconomic factors when making policy decisions for development in these peripheral zones.  相似文献   

7.
Estimates show that, in recent years, deforestation and forest degradation accounted for about 17% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) is suggested to provide substantial emission reductions at low costs, although cost estimates show large uncertainty. Cost estimates can differ, as they depend on the approach chosen, for example: giving an economic stimulus to entire countries, taking landowners as actors in a REDD framework, or starting from protecting carbon-rich areas. This last approach was chosen for this analysis. Proper calculation of the economic cost requires an integrated modelling approach involving biophysical impact calculations and their associated economic effects. To date, only a few global modelling studies have applied such an approach. In modelling REDD measures, the actual implementation of REDD can take many forms, with implications for the results. This study assumes that non-Annex I countries will protect carbon-rich areas against deforestation, and therefore will refrain from using these areas as agricultural land. The opportunity costs of reducing deforestation within the framework of REDD were assessed using an integrated economic and land-use modelling approach comprising the global economic LEITAP model and the biophysical IMAGE model. One of the main methodological challenges is the representation of land use and the possibility to convert woodlands land into agricultural land. We endogenised the availability of agricultural land by introducing a flexible land supply curve, and represented the implementation of REDD policies as a reduction in the maximum amount of unmanaged land that potentially would be available for conversion to agriculture, in various regions in the world. In a series of model experiments, carbon-rich areas in non-Annex I countries were protected from deforestation. In each consecutive scenario the protected area was increased, starting off with the most carbon rich lands, worldwide systematically working down to areas with less carbon storage. The associated opportunity costs, expressed in terms of GDP reduction, were calculated with the economic LEITAP model. The resulting net reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from land-use change was calculated with the IMAGE model. From the sequence of experiments, marginal cost curves were constructed, relating carbon dioxide emission reductions to the opportunity costs. The results showed that globally a maximum of around 2.5 Gt carbon dioxide emissions could be avoided, annually. However, regional differences in opportunity costs are large and were found to range from about 0 to 3.2 USD per tonne carbon dioxide in Africa, 2 to 9 USD in South America and Central America, and 20 to 60 USD in Southeast Asia. These results are comparable to other studies that have calculated these costs, in terms of both opportunity costs and the regional distribution of emissions reduction.  相似文献   

8.
Protected areas are cornerstones for biodiversity conservation, yet they can be controversial because of their potential impact on the livelihoods of local people due to restrictions on agricultural land use and the extractive use of natural resources. This study evaluates the impact of PAs on households’ livelihoods, as measured by total household income (THI) and livestock income (LI). We use a survey and a quasi-experimental design to gather socioeconomic and biophysical data from households living within, adjacent to and outside three national parks (NPs) in Ethiopia and employ matching methods to isolate the impact of NPs. Our findings suggest that there is no evidence that the establishment of NPs adversely affects local livelihoods. Instead, we find that households within and in adjacent areas to NPs have higher incomes compared to those living outside. Understanding the heterogeneity of the effect of NPs on local livelihoods can help in designing well-targeted policy interventions that improve conservation goals while also addressing livelihood concerns of resource-dependent local communities.  相似文献   

9.
A detailed understanding of multiple human and environmental factors influencing land allocations among agricultural uses can facilitate more efficient and targeted land policy. To show this, we used a comprehensive dataset of socioeconomic, physiographic, and climatic indicators to investigate potential determinants of land-use in Australia’s intensive agricultural region during the period 1992–2010. We applied a seemingly unrelated regressions land-use shares spatial error model with random effects coupled with variance decomposition analysis to identify the statistical significance, direction and magnitude of observed associations between land-use and its drivers.Population: density, rainfall, equity ratio, and access to markets were the most influential policy-relevant land-use factors. Land allocations to cereals and livestock production were significantly influenced by spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature variability. Improved pastures, cereals, annual and perennial crops plantations were larger in regions with better access to markets. Increases in equity ratio (i.e., better financial position) were associated with larger land allocations to improved pastures and annual crops and smaller extensive grazing area. Marginal associations were detected between land-use and output prices, and higher population density was associated with lower shares for all high value agricultural land-uses. The results suggest that improved transportation infrastructure, zoning regulations, and mechanisms to reduce farm debt exposure and risks from climate variability could have significant impact on the configuration of the Australian agricultural landscape.  相似文献   

10.
In this article, we use data for 376 households, 1,066 parcels, and 2,143 plots located in 95 villages in the hillside areas in Honduras to generate information needed by decision makers to assess the needs and opportunities for public investments, and design policies that stimulate natural resource conservation. We develop a quantitative livelihood approach, using factor and cluster analysis to group households based on the use of their main assets. This resulted in seven household categories that pursue similar livelihood strategies. We use a multinomial logit model to show that livelihood strategies are determined by comparative advantages as reflected by a combination of biophysical and socioeconomic variables. While 92% of the rural hillsides population in Honduras lives on US$1.00/capita/day or less, households that follow a livelihood strategy based on basic grain farming are the poorest because they often live in isolated areas with relatively poor agro‐ecological and socioeconomic conditions. Opportunities for off‐farm work tend to be limited in these areas and household strategies that combine on‐farm work with off‐farm work earn higher incomes. Per capita incomes can be increased by improving road infrastructure, widening access to land, policies that reduce household size and dependency ratios, and adoption of sustainable land management technologies that restore soil fertility. We used probit models to show that the latter can be promoted by agricultural extension programs and land redistribution. Investments in physical assets should be directed toward households that pursue livelihood strategies based on off‐farm employment or coffee production, while agricultural training programs are best focused on livestock producers.  相似文献   

11.
Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land‐use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro‐economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10–25% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub‐Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.  相似文献   

12.
Land use and land cover changes have complex linkages to climate variability and change, biophysical resources, and socioeconomic driving forces. To assess these land change dynamics and their causes in the Great Plains, we compare and contrast contemporary changes across 16 ecoregions using Landsat satellite data and statistical analysis. Large-area change analysis of agricultural regions is often hampered by change detection error and the tendency for land conversions to occur at the local-scale. To facilitate a regional-scale analysis, a statistical sampling design of randomly selected 10 km × 10 km blocks is used to efficiently identify the types and rates of land conversions for four time intervals between 1973 and 2000, stratified by relatively homogenous ecoregions. Nearly 8% of the overall Great Plains region underwent land-use and land-cover change during the study period, with a substantial amount of ecoregion variability that ranged from less than 2% to greater than 13%. Agricultural land cover declined by more than 2% overall, with variability contingent on the differential characteristics of regional human-environment systems. A large part of the Great Plains is in relatively stable land cover. However, other land systems with significant biophysical and climate limitations for agriculture have high rates of land change when pushed by economic, policy, technology, or climate forcing factors. The results indicate the regionally based potential for land cover to persist or fluctuate as land uses are adapted to spatially and temporally variable forcing factors.  相似文献   

13.
Many major agricultural regions worldwide are experiencing drastic landscape transformations. Examining the complex links among agricultural landscape dynamics (ALD), land use and land cover (LULC) change, socioeconomic development and government planning is pivotal to enhance the efficiency of agricultural landscape management. With a case of the Ningbo region (China), this paper employs the structural equation modeling (SEM) to quantify and compare the relationships between ALD and economic transition as well as the mediating LULC factors in different spatial planning zones. ALD are quantified by time series remotely sensed imageries and a set of landscape metrics; and economic transition is described by a set of indicators from three aspects (globalization, decentralization and marketization). Results show that ALD present similar trend in the two spatial planning zones between 1979 and 2013. However, the magnitude of ALD is larger in the non-urban planning zone. In particular, agricultural landscapes change into the fragmented, irregular, decreased, and isolated patterns at a more rapid pace. Economic transition drivers and LULC mediators differ remarkably between the two spatial planning zones. For the urban planning zone, economic transition influences ALD through construction land morphological changes and water body spatial density increases. For the non-urban planning zone, economic transition influences ALD through forest morphological changes and construction land spatial density increases. In addition, the relative importance of ALD determinants differs between the two spatial planning zones. Marketization plays a more critical role in driving ALD in the urban planning zone, while decentralization has a stronger impact on ALD in the non-urban planning zone. It is argued that land use master plan for agricultural landscape protection should be implemented in the non-urban planning zones and land use plan in the two spatial planning zones should be integrated. This study contributes to the understanding of the complex mechanism of ALD in response to economic transition.  相似文献   

14.
Soil erosion is a common form of land degradation in Europe concentrating on sloping rural areas. Consequences of soil erosion include the alteration of the long-term balance between ecosystem functioning and socio-ecological systems. Although it was hypothesized that rural areas with specific environmental (soil, climate, vegetation) and territorial attributes (economic marginality and poor accessibility) are more exposed to soil erosion risk, less information are available on the spatial link with various socio-spatial, productive, cultural and political attributes of local communities, spanning from unemployment to subsidence agriculture, from quality of life to water management, from poverty to economic backwardness. Taken together, these factors may trigger a downward spiral leading to land degradation. The present study explores, on a municipal scale in Italy, the spatial relationship between an index of soil erosion risk and 133 indicators describing six research domains. Exploratory data analysis based on non-parametric inference, principal components analysis and hierarchical clustering was carried out with the aim to profile municipalities exposed to high risk of soil erosion and to identify a restricted number of factors possibly determining a downward spiral towards soil erosion and land degradation. Results indicate that the socioeconomic profile of risky areas in Italy is characterized by specific rural development attributes and defined productive structure and socio-spatial characteristics representing a possible target for mitigation policies. Multi-factor studies investigating the influence of the local socioeconomic context on soil erosion may contribute to improve the effectiveness of national soil conservation strategies.  相似文献   

15.
西部生态脆弱区农用地质量等别限制因素及提升策略研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
该文以云南陆良为代表的云贵高原区、重庆丰都为代表的四川盆地区、陕西凤翔为代表的黄土高原区、新疆阿勒泰为代表的西北地区以及内蒙古达拉特为代表的内蒙古及长城沿线农牧交错区为例,基于农用地分等成果,对5区农用地质量等别特征进行了系统对比分析,查明了各区农用地质量等别主要限制因素,并提出相应的提升策略,为耕地质量保护和建设政策的制定提供科学依据。研究结果表明,以上述5区为代表的西部生态脆弱区农用地等别总体偏低,农用地多为中等地和低等地,高等地分布较少,优等地无分布;有效土层厚度、有机质含量、灌溉条件是5区耕地质量等级的共同限制因素。pH值、表层土壤质地、排水条件以及盐渍化程度为西北地区和内蒙古农牧交错区特有的限制因素,岩石露出度为云贵高原区特有的限制因素,灌溉水源为黄土高原区特有的限制因素,林网化程度为西北地区特有的限制因素。在制定区域耕地质量保护与建设政策时,既要考虑共性限制因素,更要着眼于区域特有的限制因素,根据各区耕地质量等别限制因素制定相应提升策略。  相似文献   

16.
目的 土地类型反映了自然地理特征的同质性。为做好农用地保护工作,贯彻落实党中央、国务院及自然资源部关于“宜耕则耕”“宜园则园”“宜林则林”等要求,有必要开展以土地类型为单元的农用地适宜性评价研究。方法 文章首先,在构建的西峡县土地类型的三级分类框架的基础上,采用自上而下的叠置法与自下而上的合并法划分土地类型。其次,以土地类型的最小单元为评价单元,综合自然条件、社会经济和生态环境因素,分别建立了针对耕地、园地和林地的适宜性评价体系。最后,运用层次分析法和加权求和法相结合的方法评价西峡县各类农用地的适宜性。结果 (1)西峡县的土地类型有3个等级,包括14个土地类、299个土地亚类和570个土地单元。(2)西峡县86%以上的区域为林地适宜区,约47%的区域适宜园地,而只有13%的区域适宜耕地。(3)各类农用地的高度适宜区(S1)主要分布于研究区南部河流谷地地带。各类农用地的勉强适宜区(S3)在空间分布不均匀,且研究区北部的大部分山地区域均不适宜(N)作为耕地。结论 基于土地类型的适宜性评价可以识别潜在适宜作为农业利用的土地,并可为农用地的布局优化提供参考。  相似文献   

17.
Abandoned agricultural land in Latvia offers high potential for renewable energy production, especially for short rotation woody crops (SRWC). The objective of this study is to understand the main reasons why agricultural lands remain abandoned, and whether these reasons could pose any obstacles to the establishment of SRWC. The study was carried out in the Latgale planning region, with estimated 75,530 ha of abandoned agricultural land suitable for SRWC. Qualitative methods of data collection and analysis were used to study the phenomenon. The results show that the primary reason for agricultural land abandonment is the absentee landowners who do not reside in the municipality (e.g., heirs, urban dwellers, intermediaries, and/or investors). Other reasons are: (1) perception of a greater future value from other types of land use; (2) environmental and biophysical characteristics of the land; (3) policy obstacles; (4) social behavior; and, (5) financial and economic constraints. The study also reveals that the establishment of SRWC on abandoned agricultural lands will depend on policies guiding land acquisition and agricultural land use, as well as social and economic policies that encourage small holder production, especially in Latgale.  相似文献   

18.
It is easy to understand why regions that produce very fine goods such as port wine tend to conceal technological and scientific inputs and praise the uniqueness of the terroir. This paper suggests that, during the last decades of the nineteenth century, viticulture in the Douro region of Portugal was as much a product of soil, local farming traditions, and individual entrepreneurship as it was of modern state science and national politics for agricultural improvement. the unprecedented public projects of building a railroad and fighting phylloxera permanently changed the land of port wine. Moreover, those engineering practices of rationalization, simplification, and standardization that were inscribed on Douro's landscape proved essential for the Portuguese experience of modernization and nation-building.  相似文献   

19.
[目的]综合区划是进行盐碱地分类改良与利用的基础,对改善生态环境、合理利用土壤资源和支撑农业经济发展具有重要作用。[方法]基于河套平原地貌类型(山地、冲洪积平原、沙漠等),考虑盐碱土形成特点、灌区水利现状及改良方向等,并参考区域内7.2万hm~2耕地(共采集5 399个土壤样品)土壤背景值,根据科学性、适用性、可推广性、可操作性等相关原则进行了河套平原盐碱化土壤综合改良分区和相应改良对策制定。[结果]将河套平原盐碱化土壤改良划分为6个一级区和13个亚区。一级区包括河套倾斜平原灌淤土土壤盐碱化改良区、黄河—引黄总干(二黄河)两河间平地盐碱化土壤改良区、乌加河排水总干沟北侧黄灌盐碱化土壤改良区、河套平原北部狼山南侧洪积冲积平原盐碱化土壤改良区、乌拉山—黄河之间三湖河盐碱化土壤改良区、乌兰布和沙漠东边缘绿洲盐碱化土壤改良区。[结论]将河套平原盐碱地改良治理与利用有机结合,科学划定了分区,并在综合考虑区域水盐平衡基础上,明确了各亚区黄河水和井水配合利用、地下水位调控、改良措施组合的综合改良对策和利用方向,为河套平原盐碱化土壤分区改良提供了依据。  相似文献   

20.
Low investments in sustainable land management (SLM) limit agricultural production in the East African Highlands, leading to increased soil erosion, low productivity of land and food insecurity. Recent studies in the region show that different socio-economic factors influence SLM investments by farmers, but knowledge on which of these are most influential and how to foster SLM is often lacking. This research fills this gap for the West Usambara Highlands, and determines key socio-economic factors influencing investments in SLM. Data for this research was collected from 196 randomly selected farm households in the Lushoto district, and Factor Analysis was used to reveal patterns of correlation between SLM investments and different household characteristics. Among the eight socioeconomic factors generated by Factor Analysis, four key factors were found to significantly influence SLM investments in upland (mainly rain-fed) agricultural fields: (1) the farmer’s access to support services; (2) the farmer’s experience with collaborative land management; (3) the household’s income from crop sales; and (4) the farmer’s forward driven attitude. The study concludes that a strategy to foster and scale-up SLM in the West Usambara Highlands should therefore improve the access of farmers to support services (especially micro-credits), trigger collaborative efforts in land management (e.g., farmer-to-farmer training) and promote investments in the rural area to create an enabling environment for SLM. A more active role of the Government, together with public and private sector partners, is therefore crucial.  相似文献   

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