Spatial distribution pattern and its optimization strategy of China’s overseas farmland investments

Overseas farmland investment is an “external program” contrary to the “internalization program” such as multiple planning integration and farmland protection, to solve the contradiction of food security and urbanization during the process of China’s development. Though overseas farmland investment being a new investment tide for decades, research on overseas farmland investment is still in its infancy, with limited research dimensions and insufficient depth. How to establish a scientific and reasonable selection model of the host country for China as well as other countries has become an urgent academic and practical issue to decrease the investment risks. This paper analyzes the spatial distribution of China’s overseas farmland investment with the investment samples from 2000 to 2017 and proposes its operational strategy. Here are the conclusions. (a) The obvious imbalance of the distribution of China’s overseas farmland investment. Further research from a global perspective finds that the existent distribution pattern of China is not optimal. (b)The correlation analysis result shows the trends of overseas farmland investment with political stability and benefits seeking. (c) Host countries most suitable for overseas farmland investment are concentrated in Southeast Asia and along the equator in Africa and Latin America. (d) The existent distribution pattern for China’s overseas farmland investment needs some proper adjustment. China should increase the scale of overseas farmland investment in non-traditional regions while strengthening the status of the core investment regions in Southeast Asia, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.     

供给侧生产端变化对中国粮食安全的影响研究

在“谷物基本自给、口粮绝对安全”的粮食安全战略背景下,粮食供给侧生产端对于保障中国粮食安全起到关键性作用。近年来,随着城镇化和农业现代化的推进,新型农业经营主体和土地规模化经营快速发展,粮食生产在质量效益和专业化水平不断提高的同时,其土地生产效率的提高和市场风险的防范面临挑战;粮食生产成本的攀升和比较收益的下降,使农业支持家庭生计的功能不断弱化,导致农户种粮意愿普遍降低;居民食物消费结构升级引致种植结构调整,使保障口粮绝对安全的政策成本上升。粮食生产主体结构与行为、生产成本与比较收益、供需匹配关系等生产端的重要变化,对粮食供给能力进而对国家粮食安全产生重要影响。为此,需要优化粮食安全目标,合理协调“保产量”与“优结构”的关系;完善价格激励机制,以需求升级为导向优化生产结构;优化收储调控机制,增强粮食安全风险应对能力;多举措提高农户种粮和地方政府发展粮食的积极性的同时充分利用国外资源和国际市场。     

农业高质量发展空间布局研究

目的 优化农业空间布局是构建发展新格局、推进农业高质量发展的重要内容,也是保障国家粮食及其他重要农产品供给安全的重要支撑。方法 文章以高质量发展理念为指导,运用数据分析与文献研究相结合的方法,系统分析我国农业空间格局的现状、历史演变和存在问题,阐明农业高质量发展的核心要义,构建农业高质量发展空间格局优化方案。结果 1978—2019年我国农业生产重心逐渐向北推进,土地密集型农产品北移和资金密集型农产品东移。未来我国农业发展在农产品供需、自然资源、生态环境、农产品生产、国际市场贸易等方面存在诸多不确定性和潜在风险。结论 基于高质量发展的“产品高品质、生产高效率、产业高安全和经济高价值”四大核心要义,综合考虑国家粮食安全、生态安全、配置效率和乡村振兴等因素,研究提出2035年全国“六区十一带”农业空间战略格局及其耕地保护利用格局方案与相关配套政策措施建议。     

Farmland transition in China and its policy implications

China’s land use structure is closely related to its economic development. Based on the theoretical analysis framework of China’s farmland transition (FT), this paper establishes an evaluation index system for quantifying FT from two dimensions, the dominant transition and recessive transition, and uses K-means clustering to quantitatively divide the phases of FT in China over the past four decades. The results show that the FT in China has experienced several phases from slow transition, rapid transition, to steady transition and innovation transition, and demonstrates clear regional differences. The dominant transition phase, social and ecological farmland transition, mainly occurred during 2000–2010. The economic farmland transition occurred earlier, during 1990–2000. Spatially, the economic farmland transition gradually shifted from the southeast coastal area to the inland. The “structure-function” transition of China’s farmland in the past four decades can be divided into four phases: the preliminary exploration and development phase, the steady development and expansion phase, the market-oriented reform and deepening phase, and the reform and innovation phase. Finally, relevant policy implications and suggestions were proposed for the optimal management and regulation of farmland according to the characteristics of FT, its challenges and people’s new demand for farmland functions.     

中国耕地“非粮化”的时空格局演变及其影响因素

研究目的:探究中国耕地“非粮化”时空演化特征及影响因素,以期为中国耕地资源保护和粮食安全保障提供参考。研究方法:GIS空间分析、空间计量模型。研究结果:(1)2004—2018年,中国整体的“非粮化”水平呈波动变化,2016年后“非粮化”最为显著;“非粮化”类型逐渐由蔬菜、油料、棉花等多类型向蔬菜瓜果转变。(2)“非粮化”在空间上大致表现出由东北向西南逐步严重的态势,类型多为蔬菜和油料作物,又以蔬菜为主导。(3)各影响因素中,人工成本和种粮比较收益在后期对非粮种植有显著负向影响;劳动力非农就业促进“非粮化”现象发生;机械动力水平在前期对“非粮化”具有显著负向影响,后期表现为正面作用;良好的政策环境对“非粮化”具有抑制作用。研究结论:为应对耕地“非粮化”现象,应继续保障粮食种植收益、完善农业生产设施与服务市场、健全法律政策与制度,以稳定粮食生产。     

中国粮食主产区农田生态服务价值总体评价

该文阐述了农田生态服务价值的概念、研究的思路与方法,对9项调节因子的计算作了介绍。研究表明,中国粮食主产区农田单位面积生态服务价值平均为4044.55元/hm2.年,比全国平均水平高出14%;三大平原农田总生态服务价值为3128.82亿元/年,总体占全国的67.82%。东北平原单位耕地和人均农田生态服务价值均高于华北平原和长江流域。     

粮食生产对生态碳汇的影响研究

[目的]协同推进粮食安全与碳中和目标是当下中国的核心议题,但粮食生产对生态碳汇的影响尚不明确,文章尝试梳理粮食生产影响生态碳汇的作用机理,并实证甄别粮食生产影响生态碳汇的净效应。[方法]构建粮食生产影响生态碳汇的分析框架,利用2000—2017年中国县域面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型进行实证检验。[结果]基准分析表明,粮食生产对生态碳汇总量具有显著正向影响。异质性分析表明,复种指数的适度提升有助于发挥粮食生产的碳汇效应;相较于西部和东北地区,东部和中部地区粮食生产的碳汇效应更大。[结论]应重视粮食生产的碳汇属性,通过耕作制度调整等手段加强土壤保护,挖掘粮食生产的碳汇潜力;优化陆地绿色植被空间布局,降低农地、林地和草地等不同绿色植被碳汇的潜在冲突;基于区域差异,制定具有区域针对性的粮食安全与碳中和协同行动方案。     

“十三五”时期我国藏粮于地绩效评价

目的 构建我国藏粮于地绩效评价体系,分析“十三五”时期我国藏粮于地的成效。方法 文章基于经济—社会—生态分析框架,从数量、质量、技术、安全、结构和环境等方面构建藏粮于地绩效评价指标体系,运用熵值法和TOPSIS法进行综合评价,并进行空间计量分析。结果 （1）“十三五”时期我国藏粮于地绩效整体呈现上升态势。（2）分区域看,黑龙江、山东、河南等主产区藏粮于地绩效较高,但生态效益有待提升;多数地区属于经济—生态效益潜力型和中增长型,未达到库兹涅兹曲线顶点。（3）各地区藏粮于地的经济、社会、生态效益还有较大的提升潜力,耦合协调度不高。结论 “十三五”时期我国藏粮于地成效显著,粮食主产区在稳定藏粮于地经济、社会效益的同时需要提高生态效益;“十四五”时期实施藏粮于地战略要考虑区域差异,并兼顾经济、社会和生态效益的协同发展。     

The incremental construction land differentiated management framework: the perspective of land quota trading in China

Construction land plays a vanguard role in China’s rapid urbanization process. However, confront with massive loss of farmland resources, the highly centralized land-use planning and management system established by the central government in 1998 stipulates that the red line of 1.8 billion mu of farmland should be guarantee to ensure food security. A series of land management system innovations such as “the replacement of basic farmland in different places”, “the compensated supplement of farmland in different places”, and “the land conversion quotas transregional transaction” in Zhejiang province have received increasing attention, under the premise that neither dissipating the economic development efficiency nor breaking the constraints of various planning quotas. Inspired by the “three-phase” efficiency improvement based on the concept known as the “adaptive efficiency”, this article first proposes the inherent policy shortcomings as incalculability, inseparability, and uncontrollability. Then, adopting the mathematical model derivation and economic analysis tool, we demonstrate that the “general allocation + competition allocation + rewarded allocation” of new construction land quota allocation scheme has improved the three-stage Pareto efficiency. Relying on the network analysis of the cross-regional trading in Zhejiang province, the “time hotspot”, “regional hotspot”, Siphon effect, price fluctuation and inequality of opportunity are also observed in the process of trading. The authorities should play a quasi “wedge-like” blocking role in due course. It is therefore suggested that a differentiated management scheme should be adopted considering the variance in regional resource endowments and social ecosystem. This paper expected to shed light on improving construction land-use efficiency for China and other similarly placed developing countries.     

Spatio-temporal variances and risk evaluation of land finance in China at the provincial level from 1998 to 2017

Excessive dependence on land finance (hereafter LF) in China’s urbanisation process has generated various problems and compromised the interests of future generations, hence a transformation from “land urbanisation” to “population urbanisation” is now called for. Nevertheless, before turning towards a new urbanisation strategy, the spatio-temporal variances of LF and associated risks for regional sustainability deserve further investigation. This study developed a comprehensive evaluation indicator system from administrative, economic, social and ecological perspectives, to evaluate the LF risks at provincial scale in mainland China from 1998 to 2017, applying the combined AHP-Entropy method and Multi-Criteria analysis. The results indicated that land transfer dependence remained high across all provinces over the last two decades, and the LF risk increased accordingly. In 2015, economic, social, and total risks of China as a whole all reached a “high” risk level, ecological risk was at the level of “critical”, although administrative risk kept going down and was at a “low” risk level in recent years, thanks to the persistent nation-wide effort on cracking down on corruption. Spatially, total LF risk generally presented a declining gradient from east to west. Through analysing the tentative and plausible causes to above spatio-temporal variances, five policy suggestions were put forward: (1) reforming current cadre assessment and fiscal decentralisation systems; (2) transforming the residential housing supply structure; (3) establishing a comprehensive land ecological conservation system; (4) promoting a flexible leasehold mechanism in primary land market; and (5) restructuring the industrial layout to defuse differentiated LF risks across provinces. With empirical data and comprehensive risk evaluations, this study contributed to improve our knowledge on the spatio-temporal patterns of LF and its associated risks at provincial scale, helped to inform future urbanisation policy designs and ultimately to promote regional sustainability for China and beyond.     

中国耕地保护生态治理内涵及实现路径

研究目的：厘清耕地保护生态治理内涵并明确实现路径,为丰富生态文明背景下的耕地保护与治理提供理论支 撑。研究方法：文献综述法、归纳法、推理法等。研究结果：（1）中国耕地存在空间适宜性差、作土垂直关系紊乱、生产 生态功能失衡等问题。（2）聚焦耕地保护新要求,中国耕地保护生态治理核心内涵包括“耕地空间适宜性、作土垂直关 系匹配性、耕地生产生态功能协调性”等三个方面。（3）实现路径包括科学技术领域突破、部门形成合力、政策对接融 合转型、区域之间协同共进等。（4）保护与治理工具包括通过国土空间规划、全域土地综合整治以提升耕地空间适宜 性;调整粮食生产布局、确定合理复种指数等强化作土垂直关系的匹配性;对耕地生产空间进行严格的用途管制,减 少化肥、农药施用量和灌溉投入强度,优化耕地功能的协调性;建立耕地生态保护补偿机制,推动实现三性协同。研究 结论：中国耕地保护从单独侧重数量、质量保护进入到保护与生态治理相结合的新阶段,要建立起源头控制、过程监管 和末端治理的全流程治理新机制。     

警惕我国粮食安全保障能力下降

我国粮食生产"七连增",也出现粮食进口"七连增",突破95%的粮食自给保障线,大规模"进口土地"成为常态。当前,诸多不利因素都在动摇粮食稳产增产的基础,特别是水资源约束、耕地数量与质量下降将严重影响我国粮食安全保障能力。必须调整国家工业化、城镇化空间布局战略以保证粮食资源,大幅度减少耕地占用指标,实行部分农田的"零"占用制度,建立粮食进口多元支撑战略。     

Changes in and prospects for cultivated land use since the reform and opening up in China

Cultivated land provides the basic guarantee for food production and security, and changes in its utilization have been a focus of attention in China. Since China’s “reform and opening up,” major changes have taken place in the country’s social economy and cultivated land use. Based on statistical data analysis and literature review, this study systematically reviewed long-term changes in cultivated land use in China. On that basis, future trends are identified, which can provide new insights for future research on cultivated land use and protection management. The findings indicate that while cultivated land use is diversified, smallholder farmers still account for the main part. Further, the scale of cultivation is expanding but still fragmented, profits derived from land cultivation are slowly growing, and the proportion of those profits in total household income has dramatically declined. It was also found that the social security function of cultivated land has been weakened, cultivated land management has become more diversified, and grain output has risen steadily. To meet the needs of social and economic development, the government should promote the transfer of the “household” as a unit instead of “labor.” Moreover, innovation in the land use system should be stimulated based on industrial convergence, and policy incentives for ecological farming should be increased.     

Global land investments in the bio‐economy: evidence and policy implications

For countries dependent on agriculture, the recent wave of investor interest in farmland could, in principle, help set in motion a virtuous cycle of economic growth and poverty reduction. A large literature documenting failure of such investments documents the risks involved. To appreciate associated opportunities and challenges, we review past experience, quantify country‐level potential for area expansion versus intensification, and identify determinants of countries’ attractiveness for investors in the initial stages of the “land rush.” The fact that weak land governance seems to increase, rather than reduce, land demand justifies an emphasis on improving institutions, transparency, and accountability while at the same time providing concrete suggestions for policy and research.     

黑龙江打造国家级现代农业示范基地的模式与途径

黑龙江作为中国第一耕地大省、第一商品粮基地和有机食品基地,农业的自然和基础优势应为黑龙江第一优势。在全球金融危机和对食品需求不断升级换代的大背景之下,黑龙江打造国家级现代农业示范基地具有在自然资源、组织资源、科技实力、生态环境和产业基础等方面的巨大优势,对于进一步加快由农业大省向农业强省转变,促进加快全国农业现代化进程,保障国家粮食安全,具有巨大潜力;对于构建黑龙江现代农业产业体系,促进农业增效和农民增收也都具有十分重要的意义。该文在分析黑龙江打造国家级现代农业示范基地的突出优势和巨大潜力的基础上,提出了相应的模式与途径。     

Integrated assessment of cropping patterns under different policy scenarios in Quzhou County,North China Plain

Agricultural land use is affected by government policies and leads to different consequences of regional sustainability. In this work, changes in cropping patterns including acreage, cropping locations and management-related environmental impacts were simulated under various policy scenarios for Quzhou County, China. This county is in China's major agricultural region, the North China Plain. Four dominant crop systems were categorized (winter wheat/summer maize, winter wheat/summer maize/spring maize, cotton, and vegetables) and analyzed, following two alternative policy scenarios that either prioritized government funding to subsidize crop production (“subsidy” scenario) or promoted advanced irrigation techniques (“technique” scenario). Input–output coefficients for all four crop systems were determined, mainly irrigation demand, yield, and price of produce, but other factors like a limited area of arable land and scarce regional water resources were also considered. For the simulation, a LINDO Inc. system was linked with the CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) model. Temporal changes of crop systems were simulated with the LINDO system, whereas spatial dynamics of cropping patterns were simulated with the CLUE model, based on land suitability maps. The results show that crop patterns changed variably with time under the two scenarios, and water availability was the primary constraint on sustainability of land use. Under the subsidy scenario, winter wheat/summer maize/spring maize became dominant across the entire county, replacing other crop systems. In contrast, the vegetable system gradually occupied farmland surrounding the township under the technique scenario. The different policies produced opposite consequences for regional sustainability. Although a “subsidy” policy contributed to farmers’ income, it did not encourage water conservation for sustainable crop production, leading to land abandonment because of water shortage. In contrast, the “technique” policy partially cut direct financial benefits to farmers, but promoted water conservation and made a substantial contribution to agricultural sustainability.     

An evaluation of contemporary China’s land use policy – The Link Policy: A case study from Ezhou,Hubei Province

Economic reform in China has resulted in rapid urbanisation over the past three decades, changing the urban and rural landscape dramatically. A large amount of farmland was developed, leading to conflict between construction demand and farmland protection. In response, the “Link Policy” was proposed in 2005 that seeks to concurrently preserve farmland while providing for urban expansion through land exchange. The effectiveness of the Link Policy has not been systematically investigated. The purpose of this study is to analyse and evaluate outcomes of the Link Policy objectives from both a participant and investigator’s interpretive perspective. Ezhou, the first experimental city to implement the Link Policy in Hubei Province in central China, was selected as a case study area. Eight different communities in Ezhou were visited and 160 semi-structured interviews were conducted with resettled rural residents in March 2016. A combination of interviews and investigator field observations were used to evaluate the Link Policy objectives. The results show that participants recognize and support improving rural living conditions and coordinating urban-rural development, but the Link Policy failed to achieve the objectives of preserving farmland, protecting farmers’ land use rights and interests, and facilitating agricultural production. Participants perceived concentrated resettlement communities to be more efficient in land use compared to more expansive rural settlements, but vacant apartments for commercial use in resettlement areas account for a large proportion of land suggesting inefficiency in the land exchanges. We suggest policy changes to achieve more successful implementation of the Link Policy.     

Delineation of a permanent basic farmland protection area around a city centre: Case study of Changzhou City,China

The delineation of permanent basic farmland will safeguard the production baseline of China’s agricultural development by securing easily appropriated, high-quality farmland surrounding urban areas, thereby strictly controlling the use of farmland (especially high-quality farmland surrounding urban areas) facing accelerated urban expansion. This study researched the delineation of permanent basic farmland in a typical region undergoing rapid urbanization. By constructing a systematic classification model, farmland was classified into matrix, edge, and island farmlands in order to analyze farmland contiguity and fragmentation. Based on the indicator requirements of various plans related to farmland, an evaluation indicator system was constructed in order to develop an evaluation model for comprehensive farmland productivity. From the perspective of farmland spatial contiguity and highly efficient productivity, a delineation model for permanent basic farmland was proposed to delimit the permanent protection and utilization boundaries for high-quality farmland around urban areas. The results show the following: (1) matrix and edge farmlands can intuitively display farmland contiguity characteristics; (2) comprehensive farmland productivity was closely related to farmland spatial patterns, supporting infrastructure, and policy management and protection; and (3) there was a high degree of spatial overlap between contiguous and highly productive farmland. The model took both comprehensive farmland productivity and spatial clustering into consideration in order to delineate permanent basic farmland, which is a beneficial factor in protecting farmland quality and safeguarding sustainable farmland utilization. It can also be used as a control line to limit urban sprawl, guide urban cluster development, and improve economical and intensive urban land use.     

农村集体经济组织成员的资格要件——基于公有制下生产、生活资料公平分配的视角

目前学界对农村集体经济组织成员资格要件的界定,忽视了我国宪法区分生产资料和生活资料的目的 .计划经济时代下的城乡二元结构体制,将"户籍"作为成员资格要件具有合理性,但在实行城乡一体化和乡村振兴的大背景下,依然以"户籍"作为成员资格要件已不合时宜.为平衡进城农民和留在农村的农民之间的利益冲突,应当将"户籍"从资格要件中剥...     

Developing grain production policy in terms of multiple cropping systems in China

Multiple cropping is one of the simplest ways to increase grain production, and it has an important role in the food security of China. This paper evaluates the multiple cropping systems of China, and identifies the regional obstacles that limit the use of multiple cropping with the aim to give some implications for developing grain production policy. A time series analysis of remote sensing data coupled with an econometrics model—stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) was used to derive the multiple cropping index (MCI), potential multiple cropping index (PMCI), multiple cropping efficiency (MCE), and potential increment of multiple cropping index (PIMCI) to evaluate the multiple cropping systems. Regional obstacles to the use of multiple cropping were identified by zoning socioeconomic and ecological environmental factors that impact its application. The MCE of China in 2005 was 87.5%, with a gap of 22% between the MCI and the PMCI. The Bohai Rim, the rim of Tianshan Mountain, the Sichuan Basin, and the middle reach of Yangtze River are the main regions that larger PIMCI could be anticipated. The whole country (excluding areas that lacked data) was divided into seven distinct regions in terms of the impact factors and further classified into low-efficiency high-potential regions (LHRs), high-efficiency low-potential regions (HLRs), high-efficiency medium-potential regions (HMRs), and medium-efficiency high-potential regions (MHRs) according to regional multiple cropping performance. Considering about the obstacles and benefits to each region, different strategies should be implemented to different regions for regional grain production increase. Special attention should be paid to the improvement of MCE in north and southwest China with the expectation to increase grain production of China. The results would help implement “The plan to increase grain production capacity by 50 million tons nationwide” launched by the central government of China.