Forest transitions in Chinese villages: Explaining community-level variation under the returning forest to farmland program

China’s Returning Farmland to Forest Program (RFFP) aimed to transform rural landscapes and livelihoods by compensating households for planting trees on retired farmland. The program has been attributed a key role in an apparent forest transition. Studies uncover great local variation in its impacts, but the mechanisms behind them have received little attention. We examine such heterogeneity in 12 communities in northwest Yunnan, assessing the hypothesis that the RFFP catalyzed a state-led forest transition by evaluating the contributions of RFFP implementation and other processes to land cover change. Our dataset combines socioeconomic data from household surveys, focus groups, and intensive interviews with remote sensing data for a linked, cross-scale analysis. Results show no significant relationship between RFFP implementation and community-level vegetation cover change. Between 2000 and 2010, high-elevation communities had larger vegetation gains, while from 2010 to 2014, low-elevation communities had larger gains. Regression analyses and interview data show off-farm labor, tree crop planting, and changing energy sources influenced the rate of community-level vegetation change. This pattern, combining tree crop cultivation with labor outflows, may represent a distinct “policy plantation” pathway of forest gain. Meanwhile, new, high-elevation cash crops may be constraining forest expansion. This analysis suggests limited additionality for the RFFP in this region and highlights how heterogeneous, intersecting land use processes bring uneven forest transitions.     

Designating tree crops as forest: Land competition and livelihood effects mediate tree crops impact on natural forest cover in south China

The Chinese government applies the term ‘tree crops’ (jingjilin) to a bundle of tree species with uses other than timber production, defining this category as a component of national forest statistics. Tree crops may displace either farmland or forestland, and can be a promising livelihood option for smallholders. The overall impact of this particular policy on natural forest growth remained unanswered. In the general expansion trend of tree cover in southern China, tree crops could compete for land with natural forests, their cultivation may pose environmental trade-offs with natural forest cover. However, in a context of large labor flows from countryside to cities, tree crops could provide promising opportunities for dealing with on-farm labor shortages and generating income for disadvantaged populations remaining in rural communities, then promoting remaining natural forest quality through alternative livelihoods process. There is a knowledge gap to thoroughly investigate tree crops’ impact on natural forest change both conceptually and empirically, especially a mechanism verification of the alternative livelihood hypothesis. Thus, we construct a framework assessing land use competition and alternative livelihood effects together to assess overall impacts of tree crop cultivation on natural forests. Our dataset combines forest resource inventory data and provincial social-economic factors for a panel analysis of contributions to change in natural forest cover, density, and stock in China’s biodiversity-rich southern provinces. Results show tree crop cover is negatively associated with natural forest extent, but positive associated with change in natural forest density, while the relationship with change in natural forest stock is insignificant. Further tests of mechanisms support the hypothesis that tree crops benefit disadvantaged rural populations, providing an alternative livelihood. Defining tree crops as forest in China obscures important patterns, particularly a trade-off between tree crops and natural forest cover and a possible synergy with natural forest density mediated by alternative livelihood processes. Policy makers should enact specific policies to incentivize natural forest recovery in the southern collective forest zone and reconsider the appropriateness of defining tree crops as forest. Concentration and intensification of tree crop production on suitable lands may have the potential to benefit both forests and impoverished populations.     

Examining the relationship between migration and forest cover change in Mexico from 2001 to 2010

This project examines the relationship between migration, population, and economic processes, and forest cover change in Mexico from 2001 to 2010. Using multiple regression analyses with remotely-sensed, significant (p < 0.10) change in woody vegetation from 2001 to 2010 as our dependent variable, we explore how environmental, migration, demographic, and economic indicators at the national and sub-national biome scales are associated with forest cover change. Results highlight the importance of international migration in forest cover change, demonstrating that international (and internal) migration processes should also be included in LU/CC research and deforestation policy.     

Analyzing the drivers of tree planting in Yunnan,China, with Bayesian networks

Strict enforcement of forest protection and massive afforestation campaigns have contributed to a significant increase in China's forest cover during the last 20 years. At the same time, demographic changes in rural areas due to changes in reproduction patterns and the emigration of younger population segments have affected land-use strategies. We identified proximate causes and underlying drivers that influence the decisions of farm households to plant trees on former cropland with Bayesian networks (BNs). BNs allow the incorporation of causal relationships in data analysis and can combine qualitative stakeholder knowledge with quantitative data. We defined the structure of the network with expert knowledge and in-depth discussions with land users. The network was calibrated and validated with data from a survey of 509 rural households in two upland areas of Yunnan Province in Southwest China. The results substantiate the influence of land endowments, labor availability and forest policies for switching from cropland to tree planting. State forest policies have constituted the main underlying driver to the forest transition in the past, but private afforestation activities increasingly dominate the expansion of tree cover. Farmers plant trees on private incentives mainly to cash in on the improved economic opportunities provided by tree crops, but tree planting also constitutes an important strategy to adjust to growing labor scarcities.     

Private property and Mennonites are major drivers of forest cover loss in central Yucatan Peninsula,Mexico

The role of land tenure and Mennonites as drivers of deforestation in the Central Yucatan Peninsula has not been empirically assessed. We evaluate different drivers and their relationship to forest cover change between 1986 and 2015 and assess how land tenure and Mennonite communities impact forest cover loss in the Municipality of Hopelchen, Campeche, Mexico. This study shows that forest cover loss has increased in the last decade (2005–2015), and that land tenure regime type is associated with this loss. Throughout the study period, statistical comparisons show rates of forest cover loss were significantly higher in private and federal property compared to forests in ejidos (communal property). Forest cover loss in Mennonite private property was also significantly higher than in non-Mennonite owned private property. The role of land tenure and the expansion of the agroindustrial production model as major drivers of forest cover loss in the region provide important insight into developing municipal land use plans and conservation strategies to reduce deforestation. Programs, incentives and policy directed towards forest conservation in the region that typically target ejido communities, will need to consider the growing trend of private property expansion within federal lands and work more closely with private property owners including Mennonite communities if deforestation reduction programs are to be successful.     

Is there a forest transition outside forests? Trajectories of farm trees and effects on ecosystem services in an agricultural landscape in Eastern Germany

Most industrial countries have experienced a transformation of land use: from decreasing to expanding forest areas, the so-called forest transition. Outside closed forests, European rural landscapes exhibit a diversity of tree-based agricultural systems, but the question of whether this forest transition has also affected ‘trees outside forests’ has rarely been studied. The aim of this study is to analyze the spatial-temporal dynamics of farm trees and woodlands in an agricultural landscape in Eastern Germany from 1964 to 2008, based on aerial photographs and digital orthophotos. Taking a landscape ecological perspective, we quantify farm tree dynamics, disentangle processes of gain and loss in the socialist and post-socialist periods of Eastern Germany, and assess differences in ecosystem services provided by farm trees. A substantial increase of overall tree cover by 24.8% was observed for the selected time period, but trajectories have been disparate across different farm tree classes. The increase in tree cover was stronger in steep valleys than on hills and plateaus, indicating a significant interdependence between topography and trajectories of change. Patch numbers of farm trees did not increase, which suggests that the expansion of tree cover is mostly due to a spatial expansion of previously existing tree patches. Overall net gains in tree cover were rather similar during the socialist and post-socialist eras. The general increase in tree cover was accompanied by increase in agriculture-related ecosystem service provision, but the increase in pollination and pest control services was much lower than that in water purification services. These findings present the first empirical evidence from an industrialized country that there is also an ongoing ‘forest transition’ outside closed forests. Potential, partially counteracting drivers of change during the socialist and post-socialist periods have mainly been related to farm policies and the environmental consciousness of land users and society as a whole.     

Land occupations and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

Researchers are increasingly interested in understanding the impact of contentious social processes on land change. In the Brazilian Amazon, there are often contentious interactions between landholders defending private property rights and squatters who have the right to occupy land that is deemed unproductive. Previous studies suggest that the contentious social processes inherent in the Brazilian land tenure and land reform system cause a significant amount of deforestation. An environment of insecure land title, and policies that value deforested land over forested land, among other factors, encourage both landholders and squatters to deforest more land than is necessary for pasture or crop production. This paper examines the impact that land occupations have on deforestation at the municipal scale across the Brazilian Legal Amazon, from 2000 to 2009. We show that land occupations have a direct influence on deforestation. We use spatial analysis as well to show that land occupations have a spatial component in the effect on deforestation: occupations in one municipality affect deforestation in adjacent areas.     

Urbanization,the energy ladder and forest transitions in India's emerging economy

Urbanization is currently a major force in tropical land use transitions as economic activities aggregate in urban centers, particularly in Asia. This paper examines relationships among urbanization, household energy source, and forest cover at the state level in India using available census, survey, and remote sensing analysis from the 1990s and 2000s. Central questions include (1) how rapidly are urban and rural households switching from traditional to modern fuel sources; and (2) what are the consequences of changing household energy sources for fuelwood demand and forest cover. Country-wide, 30 and 78% of urban and rural households respectively used fuelwood for cooking in 1993. In urban households, the percentage decreased to 22% by 2005 with a shift towards liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). The shift occurred across almost all income classes. In rural areas, the use of LPG increased fourfold but 75% of households still rely on fuelwood. Despite the decline in percentage households using traditional fuels, fuelwood demand continued to increase from 1993 to 2005 at a national scale due to an increasing total number of households. However, 25% of states and union territories experienced declines in rural fuelwood demand and over 70% declines in urban fuelwood demand. Forest cover has remained steady or increased slightly over the time period, reaffirming the conclusion that fuelwood demand may lead to local degradation but not large-scale deforestation. At the state level, increases in percent forest cover between 2000 and 2004 are positively associated with percent of total households that are urban (corresponding to fewer percentage households using wood) but not related to changes in fuelwood demand. Plantations are a primary cause of increases in forest area, where benefits to ecosystem services such as biodiversity and hydrologic function are controversial. Results suggest that households will continue to climb the energy ladder with future urbanization, resulting in substantial development benefits and reduced exposure to indoor air pollution. Implications of reduced fuelwood demand for forest cover are less certain but the limited data suggest that urbanization will promote a transition to increasing forest cover in the Indian context.     

The institutional drivers of sustainable landscapes: a case study of the ‘Mayan Zone’ in Quintana Roo, Mexico

Research on the dynamics of tropical forest land use and cover change (LUCC) has focused on the three scenarios: (1) deforestation/degradation; (2) settled, degraded areas in recovery, and (3) sparsely settled, expansive, intact forest. Through examination of a central Quintana Roo, Mexico case study we propose a fourth scenario of a ‘sustainable landscape’: an inhabited, productively used, forested landscape that nonetheless shows little change or net gains in forest cover over the last 25 years. We use Landsat images to demonstrate a low incidence of net deforestation, 0.01% for the 1984–2000 period, the lowest recorded deforestation rate for southeastern Mexico. Institutional innovations such as an agrarian reform process that established large common property forests for non-timber forest product extraction, and later innovations such as sustainable forest management institutions have driven the outcome of low net deforestation, added to multiple organizational processes that promote sustainable land use.     

Property-level assessment of change in forest clearing patterns: The need for tailoring policy in the Amazon

Once driven by large-scale clearings, Amazon deforestation now occurs mostly in small increments. Did this result from the emergence of a new group of agents or from a strategic adaptation in the behavior of those who led deforestation in the past? We address this question using georeferenced data on private rural properties and deforestation. We cross property-level and forest clearing data in an empirical setting designed to detect shifts toward clearing patches that were knowingly invisible to the monitoring system. We are therefore able to assess not only whether deforesters were responding strategically to stricter monitoring of deforestation, but also how this response differed across actor types. Results suggest that centralized policy efforts introduced starting in the mid-2000s inhibited medium- and large-scale deforestation, but had heterogeneous effects on small-scale deforestation. Although the relative participation of small deforestation polygons increased in both sample states, the relative participation of smallholders in total state deforestation increased in Pará, while remaining constant in Mato Grosso. We interpret these results as suggestive — albeit not causal — evidence that landholders strategically responded to the monitoring system by adapting their forest clearings practices to elude monitoring in both Mato Grosso and Pará. In the latter, however, the increase in smallholders’ share of annual deforestation suggests that their clearing practices were relatively less affected by what effectively contained deforestation in large properties. The apparent similarity in scale of deforestation across states conceals relevant baseline differences between the agents engaging in forest clearing in each locality. Tailoring policy to account for such differences could strengthen Brazilian conservation policy.     

Amazon forest on the edge of collapse in the Maranhão State,Brazil

The year 2019 in Brazil was marked by environmental setbacks, which catalyzed the increase of illegal deforestation and fire rates in the Brazilian Amazon. In the Amazon region of Maranhão state, original forest cover diminished from 25 % (24,700 km²) in 2016 to 24 % (23,967 km²) in 2019, and 6,038 km² of remaining forests were degraded by fires and/or illegal logging – processes related to high levels of violence against indigenous and rural communities. Almost half of all deforested areas in the region (36,060 km²) are considered a global restoration hotspot, however secondary vegetation remains unprotected and 8,294 km² were cleared between 2014 and 2018. Due to uncontrolled deforestation and fragmentation, Maranhão has no more forest core areas (outside protected areas) with the minimum size to ensure sustainable forest management practices for timber production. New policies at the state level must promote old-growth and secondary forest conservation and restoration. However, the trends point to the opposite direction: the Ecological-Economic Zoning (ZEE) allows the reduction of forest protection and the State Forest Policy reinforces federal legislation setbacks. The Amazon region of Maranhão state has forest aptitude, and forest and agroforestry product chains would bring social and environmental benefits, making them the best opportunity for sustainable economic development in the region. Therefore, the forest must be re-planted for the benefit of people and nature.     

Dynamic land use and land cover changes and their effect on forest resources in a coastal village of Matemwe,Zanzibar, Tanzania

Recent land cover change estimates show overall decline of tropical forests at the regional and global scales caused by multiple social, cultural and economic factors. There is an overall concern on the prevailing land use practices, such as shifting cultivation and extraction of forest materials as agents of forests losses, but also new, emerging land uses are threatening tropical forests. Understanding of the long-term development and driving forces of forest changes are needed, especially at local levels where many decisions on forest policies and land uses are made. This paper addresses the importance of such information for improved estimates of forest dynamics by studying local level land cover and land use changes during the last 50–70 years in the Eastern African tropical island of Zanzibar, Tanzania. The paper discusses the role of traditional and new land uses mainly subsistence farming, tourism and government interference through tree planting, in the long-term development of the forests at the village level. The material for the study is gathered from the interpretation of archival maps and aerial photographs combined with contemporary digital aerial photographs. The analyses are based on the mapping, spatial sampling and spatio-temporal change trajectory analysis (LCTA) of forest land cover, forest land uses and settlement patterns with GIS and statistics. Six distinct forest land cover change trajectories were identified and these illustrate dynamic and heterogeneous nature of the forests. Closed forest cover has dominated throughout due to cyclical land use patterns, but over 70% of the land area has been continuously transforming between closed, semi-open and open land cover conditions. Land use turnover rates indicate that hardly any forest areas are left untouched from the forces, which remove and re-establish forest vegetation in the long run. Land cover and land use change trajectories are spatially fragmented in the studied landscape. Majority of forest loss-gain dynamics is caused by shifting cultivation, while forest losses are most dramatic along the coast, where traditional and new land uses meet and land uses pressures are highest. The study suggests that landscape change trajectory analyses, where contemporary and historical information on land uses and land cover changes are spatially linked, can provide valuable aspects into local level forest land use planning and management strategies. For the case study, the findings suggest the following key forest management strategies for consideration: (1) establishment of a protected forest/scrubland in participation with the local stakeholders, especially the farmers, (2) promotion of areas for permanent agricultural practices, while simultaneously introducing management controls in the traditional slash-and-burn farming areas, and (3) promoting new livelihood opportunities for the farmers, who have traditionally been dependent on forest resources, meanwhile introducing alternatives for fuel wood for cooking.     

Tree farms: Driving forces and regional patterns in the global expansion of forest plantations

People have planted trees in rural places with increasing frequency during the past two decades, but the circumstances in which they plant and the social forces inducing them to plant remain unclear. While forests that produce wood for industrial uses comprise an increasing number of the plantations, most of the growth has occurred in Asia where plantations that produce wood for local consumption remain important. Explanations for these trends take economic, political, and human ecological forms. Growth in urban and global markets for forest products, coupled with rural to urban migration, may spur the conversion of fields into tree farms. Government programs also stimulate tree planting. These programs occur frequently in nations with high population densities. Quantitative, cross-national analyses suggest that these forces combine in regionally distinctive ways to promote the expansion of forest plantations. In Africa and Asia plantations have expanded most rapidly in nations with densely populated rural districts, rural to urban migration, and government policies that promote tree planting. In the Americas and Oceania plantations have expanded rapidly in countries with relatively stable rural populations, low densities, and extensive tracts of land in pasture. If, as anticipated, the growing concern with global warming spurs further expansion in forest plantations in an effort to sequester carbon, questions about their social and ecological effects should become more pressing.     

Land tenure, population pressure, and deforestation in Haiti: The case of Forêt des Pins Reserve

Haiti, with a forest cover estimated at 3% of all land area, has experienced severe degradation of its natural resources and a significant change in its land cover. While deforestation in Haiti is obviously multifaceted, one issue emerges from previous empirical analysis in explaining deforestation: land tenure. This study focuses on the causes of deforestation in Haiti, particularly in Forêt des Pins Reserve, using the annual average area of cleared forest per household as the dependent variable. Data were collected with the use of a survey instrument administered to 243 farm households in 15 villages inside the Reserve. Tobit Regression results reveal that household size, education of head of the household, land tenure regime, and farm labor are important factors affecting land clearing.     

Underlying and proximate driving causes of land use change in district Swat,Pakistan

Swat is part of the high mountain Hindu-Kush Himalayan region of Pakistan, with diverse biophysical and socio-economic characteristics. The region is endowed with many fragile and fragmented ecosystems, and land use and land cover changes have accelerated destructive processes with irreversible effects on ecosystems. The paper aims to (1) find proximate and underlying causes of land use and land cover changes; (2) analyse the drivers of change; and (3) reflect on the role of governance and policy.We used land use maps for the years 1968 and 2007 to highlight the extent and type of land use changes, and household surveys and expert interviews were conducted to collect quantitative and qualitative data for detecting and analysing the drivers of change.Results of household surveys and expert interviews show that technological and environmental factors, accessibility and proximity to local markets, immense use of firewood, conflicting property rights and other institutional weaknesses, and over-grazing of alpine pastures were the main driving forces for agriculture expansion and deforestation.Given the present governance structure of forest management in Pakistan a multi-sectoral and multi-scale framework is required to conserve the Swat's natural landscape and associated ecosystem services. A carefully crafted reform programme is required to clarify and assign unambiguous property rights, provisions for communal management and market-based incentives, depending on the social, economic, and ecological characteristics of the different zones under consideration. Only with such policies in place can the current rapid rate of deforestation be avoided and sustainable natural resources use be ensured.     

A country scale analysis revealed effective forest policy affecting forest cover changes in Cambodia

Considerable proportions of the remaining global forest areas are currently harboured in tropical countries. Reducing deforestation in this region is important to help mitigate climate change. Effective forest conservation approach is needed to reduce deforestation and degradation in these countries. Here, we investigated the forest conservation effect of community forests and protected areas using country scale data in Cambodia. In addition to these two forest conservation approaches, we also evaluated the effectiveness of protected forests, which are similar to protected areas but managed by different authorities. We compared deforestation between 2006 and 2016 in areas under the three forest conservation approaches and a non-conserved area by applying the inverse probability of treatment weighting with the propensity score minimizing confounding effects. The results showed that community forest, protected areas, and protected forest significantly decreased deforestation compared with non-conserved forests. Out of the three forest conservation approaches, protected forest was the most effective and community forest was the least effective. We conclude that all of the policies we evaluated are effective for forest conservation but the effectiveness varies depending on the approach. Our findings also suggest that the authority managing the given approach plays an important part in its effectiveness.     

Between dependence and deprivation: The interlocking nature of land alienation in Tanzania

Studies of accumulation by dispossession in the Global South tend to focus on individual sectors, for example, large‐scale agriculture or nature conservation. Yet smallholder farmers and pastoralists are affected by multiple processes of land alienation. Drawing on the case of Tanzania, we illustrate the analytical purchase of a comprehensive examination of dynamics of land alienation across multiple sectors. To begin with, processes of land alienation through investments in agriculture, mining, conservation, and tourism dovetail with a growing social differentiation and class formation. These dynamics generate unequal patterns of land deprivation and accumulation that evolve in a context of continued land dependency for the vast majority of the rural population. Consequently, land alienation engenders responses by individuals and communities seeking to maintain control over their means of production. These responses include migration, land tenure formalization, and land transactions, that propagate across multiple localities and scales, interlocking with and further reinforcing the effects of land alienation. Various localized processes of primitive accumulation contribute to a scramble for land in the aggregate, providing justifications for policies that further drive land alienation.     

Exploring land use changes and the role of palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia

This study compiles and analyses national-level data on land use change (LUC) and its causes in Indonesia and Malaysia over the past 30 years. The study also explores the role that palm oil has played in past LUC and that projected growth in palm oil production may play in LUC until 2020 and suggests strategies to minimize negative effects. Data collection for the study revealed that the quality and quantity of data on LUC on a national scale over time are low. Despite these uncertainties, the overview of past LUC indicates that large changes in land use have occurred in Indonesia and Malaysia. In Indonesia, LUC can primarily be characterized by forest cover loss on 40 million ha (Mha) of land, a 30% reduction in forest land. Deforestation in Malaysia has been smaller in both absolute and relative terms, with a forest cover loss of nearly 5 Mha (20% reduction in forest land). Other large changes in Malaysia occurred in permanent cropland (excluding oil palm), which has decreased rapidly since the early 1990s, and in land under oil palm cultivation, which experienced a sharp increase. Projections of additional land demand for palm oil production in 2020 range from 1 to 28 Mha in Indonesia. The demand can be met to a large extent by degraded land if no further deforestation is assumed. In Malaysia, expansion projections range from 0.06 to 5 Mha, but only the lowest projection of oil palm expansion is feasible when only degraded land may be used. The role of palm oil production in future LUC depends on the size of the projected expansion as well as agricultural management factors such as implementation of best management practices, earlier replanting with higher yielding plants, and establishment of new plantations on degraded land. The current use of degraded land needs to be investigated in order to reduce possible indirect LUC, land tenure conflicts, or other social impacts. In addition to minimizing direct and indirect LUC by the palm oil sector, measures that reduce deforestation triggered by other causes must also be implemented. A key element for doing so is better planning and governance of land use, which entails more appropriate demarcation of forest land and protection of land that still has forest cover, improved monitoring of land use, and more research to uncover the complexities and dynamics of the causes and drivers of LUC.     

Forest and agricultural land change in the Carpathian region—A meta-analysis of long-term patterns and drivers of change

Humans have altered land cover for centuries, and land-cover change is a main component of global change. Land use transition trajectories, such as the forest transition theory (i.e. switch from deforestation to stable or increasing forest cover), relate long term changes in land use to gradual changes in underlying drivers, such as economic development, demographic change, and urbanization. However, because only few studies examined land change over centuries, it is not clear how land cover changes during very long time-periods which are punctuated by shifts in socio-economics and policies, such as wars. Our goal here was to examine broad land change patterns and processes, and their main driving forces in Central and Eastern Europe during distinct periods of the past 250 years. We conducted a meta-analysis of 66 publications describing 102 case study locations and quantified the main forest and agricultural changes in the Carpathian region since the 18th century. These studies captured gradual changes since the peak of the Austro-Hungarian Empire up to the accession to the European Union of most of the formerly socialist countries in the study region. Agricultural land-use increased during the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 70% of the case studies, but dropped sharply during and especially after the collapse of the Socialism (over 70% of the cases). The highest rates of abandonment occurred between 1990 and 2000. The Carpathian region experienced forest transition during the Interwar period (93% of the cases), and the forest expansion trend persisted after the collapse of Socialism (70% of the cases). In terms of the drivers, institutional and economic factors were most influential in shaping deforestation and agricultural expansion, while socio-demographics and institutional shifts were the key drivers of land abandonment. Our study highlights the drastic effects that socio-economic and institutional changes can have on land-use and land-cover change, and the value of longitudinal studies of land change to uncover these effects.