Agricultural land use change in Karamoja Region,Uganda

We examine dramatic cropland expansion in Karamoja, Uganda by investigating the links between biophysical and political historical events leading to the current state of agricultural land use. Our objective was to quantify agricultural expansion, uncover the dominant drivers leading to the current state of agricultural land use and its impacts on livelihoods. Region wide analysis of remotely sensed data, land use policy and history as well as farmer interviews were undertaken. We posit that government programs instituting sedentary agriculture are the most significant drivers of cropland expansion in Karamoja. We show a 299% increase in cropland area between 2000 and 2011 with most expansion occurring in Moroto District (from 706 ha to 23,328 ha). We found no evidence of an increase in overall crop production or food security and food aid continues to be essential due to recurrent crop failures. Due to lack of resources for inputs (e.g., seeds and labor) cultivated fields remain very small in size and over 55% of once cultivated land is left fallow. Our findings bring into question whether continued promotion of rain-fed agriculture in Karamoja serves the best interests of the people. Current cropland expansion is directly competing and compromising pasture areas critical for livestock-based livelihoods. Without strong agricultural extension programs and major investments in climate-smart options, cropland expansion will continue to have a net negative impact, especially in the context of current climate projections which indicate a future decrease in rainfall, increase in temperature and an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events.     

Simulating the impacts of future land use change on soil erosion in the Kasilian watershed,Iran

Predicting soil erosion potential is important in watershed management. A rapidly growing Iranian population and climate change are expected to influence land use and soil sustainability. In recent years, northern Iran has experienced significant land use changes due to internal migration along the Caspian coast and conversion of forests and rangelands. Considering the effect of these changes in the future, the purpose of this study is to forecast land use patterns and investigate soil erosion scenarios using the Revised Universal Loss Equation and Markov Cellular Automata. Data from 1981 to 2011 were used as a baseline to estimate changes that might occur in 2030. The results reveal that the mean erosion potential will increase 45% from the estimated 104.52 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in the baseline period. Moreover, the results indicate that land use change from forest area to settlements will be the most significant factor in erosion induced by land use change, showing the highest correlation among erosional factors. Projecting land use change and its effect on soil erosion indicate that conversion may be unsustainable if change occurs on land that is not suited to the use. The method predicts soil erosion under different scenarios and provides policymakers a basis for altering programs related to land use optimization and urban growth. Those results indicated the necessity of appropriate policies and regulations particularly for limiting land use changes and urban sprawl in areas of unfavorable soil erosion risk factors.     

Environmental land use conflicts: A threat to soil conservation

Soil vulnerability and environmental land use conflicts were quantified and cross tabulated in the Sordo River basin (Trás-os-Montes Province, NE Portugal) to provide insights about the risk of soil degradation within that basin. Soil vulnerability was assessed by algorithms of multi criteria analysis and weighted linear combination, whereas environmental land use conflicts were described by an original approach. Three vulnerability scenarios were considered, enhancing the importance of topographic slope, soil class and use and occupation of soils, respectively, as vulnerability factors. Regardless the scenario, approximately two-thirds to the basin was defined as areas with high vulnerability. Fortunately, only 10.9% of the basin is in environmental conflict, where actual land uses deviate from natural uses determined by soil characteristics. The cross tabulation of high vulnerability areas with conflict areas, which defines the areas at risk of soil degradation, reveal that risk areas account for approximately 3.2–8.4% of the basin, depending on the scenario, being concentrated in steep slope hillsides suited for forest or mixed forest and pasture occupations but actually used for irrigated crop lands, vineyards and olive yards. Some conservation practices are implemented in the vineyard and olive yard areas, namely through the construction of terraces. These structures minimize soil erosion but are potentially unstable beyond given intervals of terrain slope. On the other hand, the maintenance of terraces is costly and for that reason eventually unaffordable for many farmers, and they also entail a mischaracterization of the historical and architectural heritage of the Douro Wine Region (UNESCO World Heritage). In this context, it was suggested the approval of legislation as regards the design, construction and maintenance of terraces, while in a broader perspective it was recommended the appreciation of a European Directive for soil protection and its subsequent transposition to the national legislation.     

Implications of land use transitions and climate change on local flooding in urban areas: An assessment of 42 Indian cities

Urban development induced land transitions affect urban hydrology, resulting in increased flooding risks. Climate change-related precipitation changes are an added complexity to the flood risks of cities. This study examines the role of land use changes in determining the occurrence of urban flooding events across 42 Indian cities under current and future climate change scenarios. Landsat images for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2017 have been processed using a hybrid classification technique to determine the land use shares for all cities. A typical event-count study using newspaper archives has been conducted to create a flooding event database. A multilevel model employing logistic mixed-effects approach was used. Future projections of the occurrence of flooding events for nine models under three climate change-related Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)—2.6, 4.5, and 8.5—and three urban development scenarios have been carried out. The results suggest that cities should preserve the land uses that act as a sponge—the green, open and blue spaces. As these spaces decrease, the projected flooding events increase. Under the RCP 2.6 scenario, the number of flooding events is significantly lower (95 % confidence) than under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The expected flooding occurrences between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are not significantly different (95 % confidence) for many scenarios, suggesting that Indian cities should aim for a world temperature increase of below 2 °C, or devastating consequences are imminent. This study highlights the need for Indian cities to undertake integrated spatial planning measures for a resilient, sustainable urban future.     

Assessing urban growth and rural land use transformations in a cross-border situation in Northern Namibia and Southern Angola

The Okavango catchment is a hot spot of accelerating land use change. In particular, climate predictions, demographic developments and a growing utilization of ecosystem services and functions are expected to increase pressure on resources and land. Land use conflicts, the sustenance of precarious livelihoods, deforestation of woodland savannahs, upstream–downstream water issues and human–wildlife conflicts are among the processes that are characteristic of policy and management challenges in the region. In the Eastern and Western Kavango regions of Namibia and the Cuando-Cubango province of Angola, a unique cross-border situation exists that allows assessing how the combination of local traditions, regional land management and national policies determines spatial patterns of land use and land cover transformation processes.To map major land use types and change processes we used a set of multi-temporal Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-7 ETM+ data sets, support vector machine (SVM) classification and iterative spectral mixture analysis (ISMA) on images covering the period from 1990 to 2010. Integrating satellite imagery with literature reviews, interviews, census and household survey data, we assessed the contrasting development of resource utilization on both sides of the Okavango River. We investigated if and how policies and regulations at different levels drive land use decisions, and how these decisions manifest spatially.We found a strong and interconnected urban growth on both sides of the river. The area around Rundu has constantly been evolving to become Namibia's second largest city, also functioning as a hub of development and transborder commerce with opposing Calai. This trend was found to affect adjacent settlement areas and cause widespread conversion of woodland savannahs to agricultural land or their utilization for timber extraction. The conversion of woodland savannah to arable land was by far the dominant land use change process on both sides of the river, with a total conversion area of 460 km² (Namibia) and 293 km² (Angola) observed during the observation period. Strong spatial change gradients occurred in relation to determining factors, such as accessibility, proximity to water, urban centres, etc., while relations to settlements where less obvious. Assessing results by country illustrated the difference in land use intensity and resource consumption between Angola and Namibia, which relate directly to historical developments, with a long period of stability in Namibia standing opposed to the recent and ongoing recovery from civil war in Angola. These are added to by statutory and traditional policy frameworks, the national endowment with natural capital (e.g. oil, uranium, diamonds, zinc) and the integration into global markets, which strongly affects national economies of both countries at large.Underlying land use decisions were found to be largely driven by individualized perspectives on growth ideologies, consumerism and wealth-aspirations connected to globalization processes. However, at present the result of these perspectives is still mainly a small-structured conversion to rainfed agriculture as a component of subsistence strategies of local livelihoods, and thus stands opposed to other regions of the world, where change processes are much more driven by large companies or follow national regulations and result in more intensive uses.     

The interrelations of land ownership,soil protection and privileges of capital in the aspect of land take

The novelty of this study lies in the analyses of legislation concerning land use policies by examining the specific boundary between land ownership and land take. The basic motive was that the European Commission (EC) withdrew the Soil Framework Directive (SFD) in 2014 following the objections of certain Member States (MS) who countered that as most lands are privately owned, they should not fall under the remit of public governance. Since the withdrawal of the SFD land take is an issue receiving more attention. The legal content of ownership rights has been subjected to constant debate in the context of land-use policies and planning practices, which raises the questions of who decides how the land can be used and whether administrative authorities give priority to non-agricultural uses. Our study seeks to explore these issues through the lens of property law by comparing different legislations on access to land on three levels of policy implementation: the EU, the national, and the local levels. MS legislations are highlighted through the example of Hungary in two aspects: (1) regulation regarding Access to Land and Land Ownership Rights (ALOR), and (2) legislation and results of the LANDSUPPORT decision support system concerning Land Take Changes (LTC). We designed figures to demonstrate how policymakers can use the new LANDSUPPORT platform to show the gaps and inconsistencies among the above aspects. We found that the legislative regulations concerning private land use to achieve soil protection objectives remain the weakest link in the environmental protection legislation of the EU. Anxieties concerning built-in legal guarantees on each of the studied levels actualise our research. Currently, global land management is not on the political table although common European legislation might be able to preserve land for agricultural use.     

Customary land allocation,urbanization and land use planning in Ghana: Implications for food systems in the Wa Municipality

Food insecurity remains persistent in the Global South due to constraints in food production capacities and intricate land tenure systems that stifle investment in agriculture. In the urbanized regions, uncontrolled urbanization and non-compliant land use systems have further worsened the potentials for urban food production. This research is based on a case study of the Wa Municipality in order to assess the influences of customary land allocation and peri-urbanization on land use planning and foods systems in Ghana using explorative and narrative research approaches. The study identified that customary stakeholders responsible for allocating such lands in the Wa Municipality were indiscriminately converting large tracts of hitherto agricultural lands to urban land uses. Statutorily prepared land use plans are hardly enforced and the planning priorities are on residential and commercial land uses that command higher land values to the detriment of agricultural lands. Weak institutional linkages also characterize the mandated planning and land administration institutions, with a planning system that is reactive rather than proactive in addressing development control challenges across the country. There is the need for planning authorities to adopt participatory land uses planning together with customary landholders and educating them on the essence of comprehensive land use planning approaches. Based on the findings, local governments need to partner landowners to identify and reserve high potential agricultural land for sustainable urban food production.     

The use of ex-ante modelling tools in European Impact Assessment: What role does land use play?

Impact Assessment was introduced by the European Commission in 2002 in order to make policy development more transparent and improve the ‘quality’ of European policies. Cross-sectoral consultation, broad participation and the quantitative assessment of the impacts of policies are significant elements of this process. This article specifically addresses the role of tools modelling the impact of policies on land use in Impact Assessment. The choice of a specific modelling tool is conceptualised as an action situation interlinked with other action arenas. The article aims to uncover the institutions structuring the action situation. The outcome of the empirical work suggests that two types of Impact Assessments can be distinguished. Impact Assessments either substantively contribute to the specific policy that the Commission proposes or they legitimise policy choices ex post that have already been adopted. The legislative procedure that applies to a specific policy sector, the policy making culture in the DG and the stakes that are at issue seem to influence whether Impact Assessments contribute to policy development, or legitimise it. Furthermore, the article describes the situation in which desk officers choose a modelling tool throughout Impact Assessment. To advance their careers desk officers aim to produce policy proposals which respond to the issues raised by the actors involved in Impact Assessment and specifically in policy development and, later on, adoption. Therefore, desk officers’ preferences are shaped by the community that is involved in policy development and Impact Assessment. The article describes what role modelling tools play in European Impact Assessment procedures and it names the heuristic of criteria which desk officers use to choose a modelling tool. Besides several technical and data problems of modelling land use impact, it seems to be unlikely that land use will become a significant dimension of Impact Assessment and modelling as it is confronted with an unfavourable institutional environment at the European level.     

Understanding recurrent land use processes and long-term transitions in the dynamic south-central United States,c. 1800 to 2006

Forests have historically been under significant land use pressures that cause periods of degradation, clearance, and recovery. To understand these changes, studies are needed that place trends in a historical landscape context and also examine recent dynamics. Here, we use historical investigation (c. 1800) and an examination of land use and land cover change between 1973 and 2006 to establish a baseline trajectory of the forested system of the south-central United States (US) plains. The study culminates in a highly detailed accounting of the processes and causes of land change between 2001 and 2006. In the study region, the forest transitioned from early low-intensity use, to clearance for farming and timber, to widespread recovery from degradation beginning in the 1930s. By 1970, the region was transitioning from recovered woodlands to an intensive regime of recurrent timber harvest and replanting. The recurring cycle inherent in intensive silviculture has been the main cause of land change for the past several decades, accounting for more than 95% of the total extent of change between 2001 and 2006. The transition to forest recovery in the south-central US was an important historical occurrence. However, the dynamic post-transition landscape needs to be better understood.     

Integrating soil survey,land use management and political ecology: A case study in a border area between Peru and Ecuador

In Latin America countries, competition for access to natural resources among different groups has been a major reason for the outburst of violence over the last decades. One of the main aims of the political ecology concerns the understanding of the environmental conditions that can underlies the social conflict among people. Such understanding needs to be based on a detailed investigation of the natural resources of the landscape, mainly the soils. Few years ago the Italian Ministry for Foreign Affairs financed a soil survey with a humanitarian purpose: the development of a peace plan between Peru and Ecuador by improving the socio-economic conditions of the rural populations living in the areas close to the border. To achieve such goal, the construction of an irrigation canal was planned to irrigate few hundred hectares in the province of Ayabaca, on the border between Peru and Ecuador. To be soundly planned and designed, the canal project was obviously based on a preliminary soil survey that is essential to assess the irrigation suitability of the land. In this work, the authors illustrate the soil characteristics within the study area, their suitability for irrigation and the key aspects for future land uses, highlighting the philosophy followed in applying the land evaluation system which took into consideration the social, cultural and humanitarian purposes of the soil survey. Results proved the feasibility of the financed project and the potential increase of the living conditions of the rural people.     

Dynamic land use and land cover changes and their effect on forest resources in a coastal village of Matemwe,Zanzibar, Tanzania

Recent land cover change estimates show overall decline of tropical forests at the regional and global scales caused by multiple social, cultural and economic factors. There is an overall concern on the prevailing land use practices, such as shifting cultivation and extraction of forest materials as agents of forests losses, but also new, emerging land uses are threatening tropical forests. Understanding of the long-term development and driving forces of forest changes are needed, especially at local levels where many decisions on forest policies and land uses are made. This paper addresses the importance of such information for improved estimates of forest dynamics by studying local level land cover and land use changes during the last 50–70 years in the Eastern African tropical island of Zanzibar, Tanzania. The paper discusses the role of traditional and new land uses mainly subsistence farming, tourism and government interference through tree planting, in the long-term development of the forests at the village level. The material for the study is gathered from the interpretation of archival maps and aerial photographs combined with contemporary digital aerial photographs. The analyses are based on the mapping, spatial sampling and spatio-temporal change trajectory analysis (LCTA) of forest land cover, forest land uses and settlement patterns with GIS and statistics. Six distinct forest land cover change trajectories were identified and these illustrate dynamic and heterogeneous nature of the forests. Closed forest cover has dominated throughout due to cyclical land use patterns, but over 70% of the land area has been continuously transforming between closed, semi-open and open land cover conditions. Land use turnover rates indicate that hardly any forest areas are left untouched from the forces, which remove and re-establish forest vegetation in the long run. Land cover and land use change trajectories are spatially fragmented in the studied landscape. Majority of forest loss-gain dynamics is caused by shifting cultivation, while forest losses are most dramatic along the coast, where traditional and new land uses meet and land uses pressures are highest. The study suggests that landscape change trajectory analyses, where contemporary and historical information on land uses and land cover changes are spatially linked, can provide valuable aspects into local level forest land use planning and management strategies. For the case study, the findings suggest the following key forest management strategies for consideration: (1) establishment of a protected forest/scrubland in participation with the local stakeholders, especially the farmers, (2) promotion of areas for permanent agricultural practices, while simultaneously introducing management controls in the traditional slash-and-burn farming areas, and (3) promoting new livelihood opportunities for the farmers, who have traditionally been dependent on forest resources, meanwhile introducing alternatives for fuel wood for cooking.     

Dynamics and changes in spatial patterns of land use in Yellow River Basin,China

Rapid land use change has taken place in many arid and semi-arid regions of China over the past decade, such as in Yellow River Basin. In this paper, changes in the land use pattern of the Yellow River Basin were analyzed using Landsat TM data in 1990, 1995 and 2000. The aim was to improve the understanding of changes in land use with a view to identifying potentially more sustainable systems of land use. Firstly, the mathematical methodology was explored and developed for spatial pattern changes of land use, which include the degree index model of land use dynamic, index model of land use degree, mean center model of land use and transformation model of land use. Based on these models, the changing spatial patterns of land use were calculated and analyzed. During the period 1990–2000, the areas of cropland, built-up land and unused land all increased, the area of cropland increased dramatically by 2917 km², while the areas of grassland and woodland decreased by 4668 and 33 km², respectively. Meanwhile, the spatial pattern of land use also experienced a great change. Then the driving factors of land use change were investigated, the governmental policies on eco-environmental protection, population growth and meteorological conditions were the major factors that caused the land use change in the past decade.     

An interactive dynamic multi-objective programming model to support better land use planning

This study develops a dynamic multi-objective programming (DMOP) approach to handle problems of optimization under conditions of uncertainty typified by multiple goals and dynamic subsystems. The proposed approach seamlessly integrates multi-objective programming, fuzzy set theory, and system dynamics tools to conduct optimal land use planning in dynamic and complex environmental systems. Based on the DMOP approach, this study constructs an interactive dynamic multi-objective programming model, investigates the connection between land use and future urban development, and incorporates the preferences of decision makers using a compromise index. A case study from Taiwan shows that the proposed modeling framework can accommodate more complete information, allowing improvements to be made in strategic planning for land use.     

基于RS和GIS的土地利用结构动态变化及发展预测研究--以南通市为例

在遥感技术（RS）与地理信息系统（GIS）技术支持下,通过对南通市区2003年、2005年、2007年三期中巴地球资源卫星CBERS遥感影像数据进行处理,并通过对处理后的图像进行非监督分类获得了南通市三期土地利用类型图和不同土地利用类型的面积数据,之后通过对三期土地利用类型数据进行叠加分析,得到了南通市区土地利用类型转移矩阵,计算了各种地类的变化率,并对未来南通市区土地利用变化情况做出了预测,结果表明：1.南通市土地变化总体呈现出建设用地持续快速增长,耕地显著减少的趋势;2.导致这种变化的直接诱因则是南通城市化进程加快,经济发展迅速,建筑用地正在不断的取代耕地和其他用地;3.如果以当前的变化模式稳定延续下去,在2012年后很短时间内南通市区建设用地面积将占全区总面积的50%以上,同时耕地面积会进一步大幅下降,土地非农化的趋势将更加明显。     

The effect of decoupling on marginal agricultural systems: Implications for farm incomes,land use and upland ecology

In many parts of Europe, decades of production subsidies led to the steady intensification of agriculture in marginal areas. The recent decoupling of subsidies from production decisions means that the future of farming in these areas is uncertain. For example, in the uplands of the United Kingdom, an area important both for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service provision, hill farmers steadily increased stocking densities in response to headage payments but must now reconfigure farm businesses to account for the shift to the Single Farm Payment scheme. We examined hill farming in the Peak District National Park as a case study into the future of marginal agriculture after decoupling. We surveyed 44 farm businesses and from this identified six representative farm types based on enterprise mix and land holdings. We developed linear programming models of production decisions for each farm type to examine the impacts of policy changes, comparing the effects of decoupling with and without agri-environment and hill farm support, and evaluating the effects of removal of the Single Farm Payment. The main effects of decoupling are to reduce stocking rates, and to change the mix of livestock activities. Agri-environmental schemes mediate the income losses from decoupling, and farmers are predicted to maximise take up of new Environmental Stewardship programmes, which have both positive and negative feedback effects on livestock numbers. Finally, removal of the Single Farm Payment leads to negative net farm incomes, and some land abandonment. These changes have important implications for ongoing debates about how ecological service flows can be maintained from upland areas, and how marginal upland farming communities can be sustained.     

Characterizing land disturbance in Atewa Range Forest Reserve and Buffer Zone

Changes in land cover of protected areas and their buffers have serious implications on the conservation of biodiversity within such biomes because land use has been recognized as one of the major drivers of biodiversity change. Atewa Range Forest Reserve is one of Ghana's Upper Guinea Forests declared as a Globally Significant Biodiversity Area (GSBA). But the reserve is under threat from several human disturbances which could impact on the land cover of the reserve.This study examined the spatial and temporal changes in land cover of Atewa Range Forest Reserve and it's buffer between 1986 and 2013 using remote sensing. Land use and land cover (LULC) classification and change detections were undertaken using one Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) image of 1986 and Landsat ETM+ images of 2003 and 2013.The study also investigated the driving forces of LULC and the effectiveness of the Forest and Wildlife Policy of 1994 in the management of the reserve.Results of image classification showed that much of the peripheral closed and open vegetative covers have been converted to farms and bushes with little disturbance within the interior of the reserve. The study revealed that, the conservation management policies were yielding very little results due to a number of policy deficiencies including low staff strength, lack of logistics and low remuneration. Enforcement of legal instruments against illegal logging, small scale mining and farming activities within the reserve, improvement in the staff strength and their condition of service, intensification of public education on the value of forest and the need to protect it are some of the major recommendations that could curb encroachment on the reserve.     

Environmental impact assessment of urban land use transitions—A context-sensitive approach

Land consumption due to residential development, economic growth and transportation belongs to the most serious environmental pressures on landscapes worldwide, in particular in urbanised areas. Accordingly, the aim of containing the development of land is rated increasingly high on the agenda of environmental policy, at least in densely populated countries such as Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands or the UK. As a result, different strategies and instruments to prevent excessive land consumption are being discussed. However, many of these strategies and instruments adopt a rather general approach, while it seems more effective to define the particular areas where the goal of reducing land consumption is to be pursued. Such an approach must draw on information about how detrimental specific land use transitions are with regard to, for instance, the functionality of soils, water balance or habitat quality at specific locations. This paper introduces a conceptual framework for the impact assessment of land use transition in urban areas which highlights how such information can be acquired. This framework includes the differentiation of two levels of impact assessment: the level of the single land unit and the context level which takes into account regional and aggregated impacts of land use transition bound to the spatial context. The conceptual framework provides a basis to disaggregate (supra-)national policy targets regarding land use, to scale them down to the regional level, and thus to clarify the spatially explicit implications of land use policies.     

Farmer-specific relationships between land use change and landscape factors: Introducing agents in empirical land use modelling

Traditional empirical land use change models generally assume one average land use decision-maker. Multi-Agent System (MAS) models, on the other hand, acknowledge existence of different types of agents, but their poor empirical embedding remains a serious handicap. This paper demonstrates how agent information can also be incorporated into empirical, biophysical land use models.     

Impacts of land use and amenities on public transport use,urban planning and design

Various land-use configurations are known to have wide-ranging effects on the dynamics of and within other city components including the transportation system. In this work, we particularly focus on the complex relationship between land-use and transport offering an innovative approach to the problem by using land-use features at two differing levels of granularity (the more general land-use sector types and the more granular amenity structures) to evaluate their impact on public transit ridership in both time and space. To quantify the interdependencies, we explored three machine learning models and demonstrate that the decision tree model performs best in terms of overall performance—good predictive accuracy, generality, computational efficiency, and “interpretability”. Results also reveal that amenity-related features are better predictors than the more general ones, which suggests that high-resolution geo-information can provide more insights into the dependence of transit ridership on land-use. We then demonstrate how the developed framework can be applied to urban planning for transit-oriented development by exploring practicable scenarios based on Singapore's urban plan toward 2030, which includes the development of “regional centers” (RCs) across the city-state. Results show an initial increase in transit ridership as the amount of amenities is increased. This trend, on the other hand, eventually reverses (particularly during peak hours) with continued strategic increase in amenities; a tipping point at 55% increase is identified where ridership begins to decline and at 110%, the predicted ridership begins to fall below current levels. Our in-silico experiments support one of the medium-term land-use transport goals of stakeholders—to alleviate future strains in the transportation system of Singapore through the development of RCs. The model put forward can serve as a good foundation in building decision-support tools that can assist planners in better strategizing and planning land-use configurations, in particular the amenity resource distribution, to influence and shape public transportation demand.     

Public health in linkage to land use: Theoretical framework,empirical evidence,and critical implications for reconnecting health promotion to land use policy

The increasing health burdens pose great challenge for planners and policy makers to create a more livable city. Recent literature has linked land use to a wide range of illness and death causes in developed nations. It therefore requires evidence-driven and replicable frameworks to inform land use decisions that integrate with health promotion. This paper proposes a theoretical framework for the mechanistic links between neighborhood land use and public health; and then quantifies their associations at district level, using the case of Shenzhen in developing China. Data for 15 health indicators in 2010 are collected at district level; and a set of standardized land use variables (individual land use type, general land use mix, and physical street conditions) are proposed to comprehensively reflect the neighborhood land use characteristics. Spatial regression is employed to analyze the relationships between health outcomes and land use variables. Results show that the land use exploratory variables vary with health indicators, but several key land use determinants are identified: green land abundance, green land morphology, institutional land proximity, industrial land proximity, blue land abundance, street walkability and street connectivity. Structural equation modeling is further applied to examine the possible mediators and it demonstrates that the casual pathways between land use and public health are quite complex. The developed set of standardized land use variables can serve as practical tools to facilitate land use decisions with health considerations. In practice, several complexities at governance levels challenge the efforts to reconnect land use policies and public health promotion. We put forward three useful solutions to enhancing health connection with land use policy across different international settings. This study captures the nuanced health disparities varied with districts and indicators, and therefore produces some more generalized knowledge that ultimately helps develop land use policies aimed at promoting public health at home and abroad.