Seasonal concentration of tourism demand: Decomposition analysis and marketing implications

This paper analyzes seasonality in the United Kingdom, specifically the English regions in relation to tourists' place of origin and main travel motivation. The method used is a decomposition of the Gini index, which provides relative marginal effects that facilitate the identification of market segments open to counter-seasonal marketing efforts. This method has been combined with a graphical multivariate technique (biplot), which groups segments according to their seasonality characteristics. Seasonal patterns associated with particular segments differ significantly when studied on a disaggregated basis. Therefore, an adequate level of disaggregation is essential in the design of counter-seasonal strategies. Although this study focuses on British destinations, this methodology could be used as a control and monitoring measure in the regional analysis of any destination, facilitating regular adjustment of regional tourism marketing campaigns to minimize seasonality effects, specifically by targeting the types of tourists less prone to seasonality.     

Seasonal concentration of the hotel demand in Costa del Sol: A decomposition by nationalities

Costa del Sol is a mature Mediterranean destination in the South of Spain with a degree of seasonality that has shown little variation during the last 20 years. In this paper, we apply the decomposition of the Gini index of seasonal concentration by nationalities. The main outcome of this decomposition is the estimation of relative contributions to the overall seasonal concentration and marginal effects by nationalities. These measures can be of great help in the design of counter-seasonal policies. Our results suggest that planners interested in reducing seasonality may concentrate their efforts in consolidating markets with negative marginal effect over the index of concentration, like the British and Nordic ones. In addition, marketing targets may be focused primarily in the winter season for the markets with positive relative marginal effect.     

Seasonality of hotel demand in the main Spanish provinces: Measurements and decomposition exercises

This paper analyses the seasonal concentration of tourist activity in the main Spanish provinces for the period 1999–2012, taking hotel nights as the indicator of reference. We propose using several standard summary measures in order to evaluate the level, evolution and some decompositions. Our main results can be summarized as follows: first, across the whole country and especially since 2007, there is a growth in seasonality; second, seasonal concentration is greatest in the Balearic Islands and two of the Catalan provinces, and least in Madrid and the Canary Island provinces; third, although the overall patterns typically agree, nevertheless, in some provinces the indexes we deal with show some discrepancies; fourth, the decomposition of the monthly concentration by major markets typically indicates the main role played by the foreign component; finally, the overall evidence does not support the thesis that the domestic market offsets the foreign one.     

Forecasting international city tourism demand for Paris: Accuracy of uni- and multivariate models employing monthly data

The purpose of this study is to compare the predictive accuracy of various uni- and multivariate models in forecasting international city tourism demand for Paris from its five most important foreign source markets (Germany, Italy, Japan, UK and US). In order to achieve this, seven different forecast models are applied: EC-ADLM, classical and Bayesian VAR, TVP, ARMA, and ETS, as well as the naïve-1 model serving as a benchmark. The accuracy of the forecast models is evaluated in terms of the RMSE and the MAE. The results indicate that for the US and UK source markets, univariate models of ARMA(1,1) and ETS are more accurate, but that multivariate models are better predictors for the German and Italian source markets, in particular (Bayesian) VAR. For the Japanese source market, the results vary according to the forecast horizon. Overall, the naïve-1 benchmark is significantly outperformed across nearly all source markets and forecast horizons.     

The impact of seasonality on tourism and hospitality operations in the alpine region of New South Wales,Australia

Despite the recognized importance of seasonality for tourism businesses, there has been a distinct lack of studies undertaken in the past that discuss the impact of seasonality on alpine accommodation resorts, and more specifically that focus on an Australian location. The main purpose of this study was to examine whether or not the Australian alpine accommodation providers and ski operations have been significantly impacted by the issue of seasonality and to determine more specifically, had there been industry pressure placed on them to become all season operations? For this study, a total of 15 semi-structured interviews were conducted with managers of hospitality businesses located in the sub-alpine region of Jindabyne, and nearby alpine areas of Perisher and Thredbo in New South Wales, Australia. Study results indicated that the majority of managers acknowledged the fact that there has been an increase in the number of summer visitors each year which has pressured them to make changes to their operations. They conceded that such activity has served to reinforce a ‘stand alone’ mindset which was still prevalent amongst the majority of the managers in the region.     

Determinants of revenue per available room: Influential roles of average daily rate,demand, seasonality and yearly trend

Determining price per room to be charged to customers is an important decision to be taken by hotel management. Hotels frequently change their room rates based on the demand of room, occupancy rate, seasonal pattern, and strategies undertaken by other hotels on pricing. We formulated four models to analyse how various influencing variables, such as hotel price, demand, yearly trend and monthly seasonality influence hotel revenue per available room (RevPar). To analyse a case, we used monthly accommodation statistics for Sweden taken for Swedish Agency for Economic and Regional Growth and Statistics from January 2008 to July 2017. We carried out data analysis using both multiple regression and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) model and found that application of MARS can help establishing a nonlinear relationship of RevPar with other determining variables in a superior way. We also proposed the possibility of developing a better forecasting model using MARS.     

Decomposition of tourism greenhouse gas emissions: Revealing the dynamics between tourism economic growth,technological efficiency,and carbon emissions

This study proposes an analytical framework for decomposing the national tourism carbon footprint and carbon efficiency to identify the dynamics between economic growth, technological efficiency, and environmental externality. Using the environmentally extended input–output model and decomposition methods, tourism carbon changes are decomposed into the economic factors of total consumption and purchasing patterns, and the production factors of industry input structure and technological improvement. This macro-level approach provides a basis for 1) assessing whether total tourism emissions increase in direct proportion to tourism consumption over time, 2) tracing the underlying determinants and their effects on tourism emissions expansion and eco-efficiency performance, and 3) comparing the carbon performance of the tourism industry against the national average. Based on the example of Taiwan, the results demonstrate that we are a long way from the goal of using the technological efficiencies of production to offset tourism-based carbon emissions.     

Risk,uncertainty and the theory of planned behavior: A tourism example

The differential impacts risk and uncertainty have on travel decision-making were explored by examining the constructs' influence on the antecedents of intentions to visit Australia using the theory of planned behavior. Respondents were obtained from online consumer panels in South Korea, China and Japan. The South Korean and Chinese samples were general population samples, while the sample from Japan was an international travelers' sample. The extended model fitted the data well, explaining between 21 and 44 percent of the variance in intentions. Subjective norms and perceived behavioral control significantly impacted on intentions in all country samples, whereas attitudes toward visiting Australia were only significant in Japan. Subjective norms influenced attitudes and perceived behavioral control in all country samples. Finally, perceived risk influenced attitudes toward visiting Australia in South Korea and Japan, while perceived uncertainty influenced attitudes toward visiting Australia in South Korea and China and perceived behavioral control in China and Japan.     

The determinants of Chinese visitors to Australia: A dynamic demand analysis

Although China has progressively become an important inbound tourism market for Australia, its demand elasticities have been little studied to date. This study examines the determinants of Chinese visitors to Australia using a dynamic time-series estimator. Interesting findings include a high income elasticity as a source of the continuous doubledigit growth rates in Chinese arrivals that Australia has experienced over the past two decades, together with relatively high total trip price elasticities for both short run and long run. A trend of Chinese outbound to Australia is also identified. From a policy perspective, the results confirm that keeping a low cost of visiting Australia, both ground and travel costs, is a good strategy to secure greater numbers of Chinese tourists.     

A bibliometric analysis of trust in the field of hospitality and tourism

The emerging field of trust has evolved dramatically with an increasing number of academic publications in this area. However, there is a lack of better clarification to draw a global picture of scientific knowledge, from a statistical perspective, using the three structures of knowledge: conceptual, intellectual, and social, to obtain a structured overview of its characteristics, identify dynamic aspects and find intellectual representations. This paper presents a new insight into scientific production through bibliometric (Bibliometrix) and network (VOSviewer) analysis, not previously fully clarified in hospitality and tourism. A total of 305 articles published between 2004 and 2020 were analyzed, covering 580 authors, 19 journals, and 43 countries. This research’s main findings showed that trust is one of the most decisive variables in the digital market, and keywords such as satisfaction, loyalty, service quality are closely related. The results provide clues for further investigation in this field.     

Formal and informal tourism sectors: A case study in Pattaya,Thailand

In view of increasing disparities in socioeconomic development, the importance of enterprises of smaller scales of operation is increasingly emphasized by recent development theories. The ILO has proposed strategies to promote the informal sector which is composed of self-employed businessmen and enterprises of a petty scale of operation. The dichotomy of formal and informal sectors and its implications are examined in a study of the tourism sector in Pattaya, Thailand. Findings on the informal tourist sector disprove major hypotheses regarding the development potential of the informal sector.     

Asymmetric impact of oil prices,exchange rate,and inflation on tourism demand in Pakistan: new evidence from nonlinear ARDL

This study scrutinized the asymmetric impact of oil prices, exchange rate, and inflation on tourism demand in Pakistan using [Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014) Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In Festschrift in honor of peter schmidt (pp. 281–314). New York, NY: Springer] nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. The NARDL bounds test examined the existence of cointegration in study variables, including CO₂ emissions, institutional quality, oil prices, exchange rate, inflation, and tourism demand. The evidence proposes that disregarding the intrinsic nonlinearities may misinform inference. The estimated NARDL model affirmed long-run negative and significant effect of CO₂ emissions on tourism demand, while institutional quality was positively associated with tourism demand. Furthermore, the findings of the study also suggested long-run asymmetric relationship between oil prices, exchange rate, inflation, and tourism demand.     

Examining the link between meetings,incentive, exhibitions,and conventions (MICE) and tourism demand using generalized methods of moments (GMM): the case of Singapore

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the impact of meetings, incentive, exhibitions, and conventions (MICE) on tourism demand in Singapore over a period of 10 years (2003–2012). Past studies have shown that MICE matters a great deal to host destinations but researchers have rarely conducted any empirical research to verify the significance of this sector to tourism demand. Our study intends to fill the gap by using Difference and System generalized methods of moments (GMM) estimators for dynamic panel models. Tourism demand is measured by tourist arrivals from the top 30 origins, and the influence of real income of the tourist generating country and real exchange rate is also examined. The GMM results show a significant positive relationship between tourism demand and MICE (with international meetings as proxies). Additionally, the findings reveal that tourism demand growth is significantly positive (negative) with respect to changes in income (relative prices). The coefficient of lagged tourist arrivals indicates a high level of habit persistence and revisiting.     

A two-way causal chain between tourism development and quality of life in a small island destination: an empirical analysis

This study postulates that tourism development (TD) and residents' quality of life (QoL) may have an intrinsically reciprocal relationship. The possible connection between TD and QoL is investigated in the island of Aruba, with economic development as a mediating variable. This investigation contributes to the literature by emphasizing the active role of QoL in the relationship with TD through a subjective well-being approach, and by expanding our understanding of the development concept. The study also advances the scope of tourism theory by presenting new propositions. The methodology consists of applying exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses combined with structural equations modeling. The results suggest that TD has a direct and indirect impact on QoL, and that QoL has an indirect effect on TD, via economic development. These findings provide new insights on the dimensions that shape the link between TD and QoL.     

Wellness tourism and spatial stigma: A case study of Bama,China

This study focused on the stigmatisation of an emerging wellness tourism destination due to patient travel for tourism. The concept of spatial stigma was adopted to explore how local residents perceive, experience and manage the particular negative effects of wellness tourism. The study investigated Bama Yao Autonomous County, colloquially known as ‘Bama’, in China, to which many tourists with cancer and other chronic diseases travel. The results showed that the influx of wellness tourists brought significant challenges in this area. The residents reported ambivalent experiences of and feelings about wellness tourism in local communities, and disagreed with the vilification of wellness tourists. However, they were concerned about the potential consequences of wellness tourism. To manage and resist spatial stigma, the residents deliberately separated themselves from the places occupied by wellness tourists. The theoretical contributions and managerial implications of the study are discussed.     

The contributions of economics to hospitality literature: A content analysis of hospitality and tourism journals

This paper aimed to develop a concrete understanding of economics topics and methodologies that have been applied to hospitality research and to suggest areas for further research. Content analysis of 292 full-length articles was performed. The results showed that the contributions of economics to hospitality literature were largely empirical and microeconomics-related. Most of the research topics focused on market analysis, which involves demand and supply modelling and price determinants, followed by performance analysis, involving efficiency and productivity studies. Limited contributions of macroeconomic topics to hospitality were determined, highlighting the lack of studies on the impact of government or public policies on the hospitality industry. Moreover, the application of game theory to market structures was found to be limited, creating a vacuum in terms of understanding the competitive and cooperative behaviours of hospitality firms. As a contribution to the literature, the study provides suggestions for future research.     

Innovation,sustainable tourism and environments in mountain destination development: a comparative analysis of Austria,Slovenia and Switzerland

This paper contributes to the comparative tourism sustainability debate in the context of mountain tourism destinations. It is based on a published three-dimensional Mountain Destination Innovation Model (MDIM) which claims that tourism development depends on a destination's innovation levels, and is subject to different conditions in a variety of important destination environments (using that term in its broadest sense), including sociocultural, natural, political, legal and technological. The authors comparatively analyzed Austrian, Slovenian and Swiss mountain destinations, which are located in small countries in the Alpine region, and that makes their environments, innovation levels and stages of development relatively easy to compare. The analysis used 88 managers’ replies to a 72 element questionnaire employing both objective and subjective measures about performance with regard to MDIM dimensions. The findings confirm differences in the stages of tourism development, in innovation levels, as well as in the supporting role of their corresponding wider environments. Swiss and Austrian mountain destinations outperformed Slovenian in almost all respects, but not in protection and quality of the natural environment or in inherited sociocultural attractiveness, where significant differences were not determined. The findings could help development and tourism policy authorities to improve the factors that determine sustainable tourism destination development.     

Multi-ownership of tourism accommodation complexes: A critique of types, relative merits, and challenges arising

Across the Western World there has been significant expansion in the multi-ownership of tourism accommodation complexes in recent years. Despite this development, this is believed to be the first study to attempt a holistic synthesis of the range of forms and structures that multi-owned tourism accommodation (MOTA) complexes can assume. A spectrum of MOTA types is developed based on the notion that MOTA complexes can exhibit varying degrees of ownership. This synthesis of MOTA types lays the basis for an evaluation of the relative merits of different MOTA types. A commentary is provided concerning the difficulty of quantifying MOTA growth and the nature of challenges that MOTA can present to a range of stakeholders.     

线性文化遗产的特征及其对旅游利用模式的影响——基于《世界遗产名录》的统计分析

线性文化遗产是一种特殊的遗产类型,随着人们对遗产完整性不断深入的理解以及遗产活化利用理念的发展,线性文化遗产旅游的重要性日益显现。因此,树立线性文化遗产意识,把握线性文化遗产特征,是推进线性文化遗产旅游利用和可持续发展的重要问题。本文以《世界遗产名录》中收录的线性文化遗产为基础数据,对线性文化遗产的类别与列入标准、资源组合模式和核心区与缓冲区等典型特征进行深入分析,并从旅游空间演化和旅游活化路径两方面总结其对旅游利用模式的影响,以期为线性文化遗产旅游的可持续发展提供科学参考。研究结果表明,线性文化遗产旅游空间结构发展过程遵循“增长极”演化规律,并在遗产文化分层上表现出不同的利用方式和活化路径。     

Thirty years of research on tourism and hospitality management in China: A review and analysis of journal publications

The tourism industry in China has undergone rapid development since 1978 and is foreseen as being the world's largest tourism market by 2020. However, no comprehensive review of literature in this context has been completed, and international academics have little understanding of China tourism research. This paper aims to provide an overview of 119 articles selected from six leading English language academic journals published from 1978 to 2008. Content analysis points to the evolving trend in Asian universities in terms of journal contributions. Consumer behavior has gained popularity as a research topic, and will likely remain as a prevalent research theme in the near future. A tendency toward multiple-authorship, rather than single authorship, and more sophisticated methodological procedures has also been found. Future analysis may focus on including other forms of publications and Chinese language journals to capture the full picture of China tourism.