Can wildlife management units reduce land use/land cover change and climate change vulnerability? Conditions to encourage this capacity in Mexican municipalities

Climate change and land use/land cover change (LULCC) are associated with local vulnerability, defined as the intrinsic tendency of a system to be negatively affected by an event or phenomenon, but this can be ameliorated by ecosystem conservation. In Mexico, extensive Wildlife Management Units (eWMUs) are environmental policy instruments designed to promote ecosystem conservation and rural development via the sustainable use of wildlife by local populations. However, evidence of the successful reduction of LULCC by eWMUs is contradictory, and there has been no investigation into their potential as an action to promote climate change adaptation. In this study, we focused on the overall patterns of LULCC associated with eWMU throughout the country and examined strengths and weaknesses of eWMUs as policy instruments to address climate change. In particular, we analyzed how differences in areas with eWMUs influence LULCC and assessed how eWMUs could contribute to reducing vulnerability, particularly in double exposure municipalities. We calculated the percentage of eWMUs per municipality from official information and estimated LULCC from vegetation changes between 2002 and 2011. We then used the Kruskal-Wallis test to find statistically significant differences in vegetation changes based on the percentage of eWMUs and performed between-group comparisons using a post hoc Dunn test. Although Mexico has 2456 municipalities, only 37% have eWMUs. Furthermore, 64% of Mexico’s municipalities have lost vegetation cover, whereas only 36% have either gained vegetation or remained stable. In municipalities that recorded changes to the vegetation, those changes were, overall, minimal and involved less than 10% of the total area of those municipalities. In general, municipalities with less than 10% of their total area dedicated to eWMUs experienced higher vegetation losses than those with more than 10% of their total area dedicated to eWMUs. We detected twelve double exposure municipalities, i.e. they are vulnerable to climate change and lost more than 10% of their vegetation. Double exposure municipalities dedicated less than 2% of their total area to eWMUs as well. Our results suggest that incremental increases in the area dedicated to eWMUs may reduce LULCC and protect vegetation, particularly in double exposure municipalities. Based on the literature, some ecological, economic and socio-cultural factors may determine the success of eWMUs and strongly impact LULCC. Therefore, additional efforts must be made to enhance our understanding of ecological and climatic processes; habitats must be monitored using a standardized methodology; biological, cultural, economic and institutional diversity must be incorporated into the planning, implementation and monitoring of eWMUs; and agreements must be established to strengthen social organization and human capital. Taking all this into account, we suggest that reducing vulnerability and improving double exposure areas by increasing the number and interconnectedness of eWMUs could represent an effective strategic approach at the municipal level to address LULCC and climate change.     

Are capacity deficits in local government leaving the Amazon vulnerable to environmental change?

The last 20 years have seen remarkable progress in monitoring and modelling environmental change in the Amazon region. As a result, scientists and policy makers now have robust and spatially explicit knowledge and forecasts of critical phenomena such as deforestation and bioclimatic uncertainty. However, whether this knowledge is used to support the implementation of policies and initiatives to cope with environmental changes in the Amazon depends on the ability of the political institutions to proactively integrate the scientific evidence into land planning at multiple spatial scales. In Brazil, municipalities are constitutionally responsible for legislating on land planning and therefore have a power to significantly influence the future trajectory of environmental change. Here, we assess the environmental capacity of municipalities in the Brazilian legal Amazon based on data from a self-assessment survey and from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics database. Municipalities generally have a low level of institutional capacity and there is no evidence that the municipalities most at threat from environmental change are taking proactive measures to reduce their vulnerability. We argue that structural reforms and capacity raising initiatives are urgently needed, especially in smaller, less economically developed municipalities located in areas at high risk of imminent environmental change.     

Population trends and desertification risk in a Mediterranean region, 1861-2017

The relationship between population dynamics and desertification risk in advanced economies is increasingly dependent on the mutual interplay of socioeconomic forces at regional and local scales. Assuming that specific, long-term demographic dynamics are associated with a given level of desertification risk, the present study investigates population trends between 1861 and 2017 and the spatial linkage with the level of desertification risk in Southern Italy, a European region where more than 20 % of land is exposed to degradation processes. Areas classified at the highest risk of desertification experienced intense population growth between 1951 and 1981. Reflecting the latest stage of the first demographic transition in Italy, such dynamics have caused an increasing human pressure on coastal districts, peri-urban areas and flat rural land. Since the early 1980s, population growth was less intense and more heterogeneous over space. Such dynamics led to a discontinuous urban expansion and the formation of a ‘third space’ – neither urban nor rural – with a consequent increase in the rate of land take. These outcomes, typical of the early stage of the second demographic transition, were mostly uncorrelated with the level of desertification risk. The spatial association between population dynamics and desertification risk characteristic of the first demographic transition in Southern Italy outlines the importance of regional developmental policies aimed at rebalancing territorial disparities for land degradation mitigation in the Mediterranean region.     

Land for housing in the Netherlands: The role of municipalities

This article looks at the role of municipalities in planning, developing and providing land for housing in the Netherlands. Specific reference is made to the role of the municipality as a planning authority (its autonomy and limitations), municipal land use plans (the legal obligation to make such plans and their content) and the role of municipalities in developing and providing land (the legal base of such development, involvement by the Ministry of Housing, Physical Planning and Environment, and the balanced cost-benefit accounts of land use plans).     

Searching for a downward spiral? Soil erosion risk,agro-forest landscape and socioeconomic conditions in Italian local communities

Soil erosion is a common form of land degradation in Europe concentrating on sloping rural areas. Consequences of soil erosion include the alteration of the long-term balance between ecosystem functioning and socio-ecological systems. Although it was hypothesized that rural areas with specific environmental (soil, climate, vegetation) and territorial attributes (economic marginality and poor accessibility) are more exposed to soil erosion risk, less information are available on the spatial link with various socio-spatial, productive, cultural and political attributes of local communities, spanning from unemployment to subsidence agriculture, from quality of life to water management, from poverty to economic backwardness. Taken together, these factors may trigger a downward spiral leading to land degradation. The present study explores, on a municipal scale in Italy, the spatial relationship between an index of soil erosion risk and 133 indicators describing six research domains. Exploratory data analysis based on non-parametric inference, principal components analysis and hierarchical clustering was carried out with the aim to profile municipalities exposed to high risk of soil erosion and to identify a restricted number of factors possibly determining a downward spiral towards soil erosion and land degradation. Results indicate that the socioeconomic profile of risky areas in Italy is characterized by specific rural development attributes and defined productive structure and socio-spatial characteristics representing a possible target for mitigation policies. Multi-factor studies investigating the influence of the local socioeconomic context on soil erosion may contribute to improve the effectiveness of national soil conservation strategies.     

Quantifying spatial supply-demand mismatches in ecosystem services provides insights for land-use planning

Global trends in land-use changes, including urbanization and abandonment of rural areas, have important repercussions for the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ES). In this study, we assessed and mapped the supply and demand of three ES (water provision, climate regulation, and outdoor recreation) along an urban-rural gradient in the Madrid region (Spain) from 1990 to 2012. We mapped ES supply, based on land use/land cover (LULC) data, using InVEST models and complementary methods, and ES demand, using population density and demand indicators. Then, we explored spatial supply-demand mismatches at a municipality spatial scale. Despite an increase in ES supply in some areas, a general increase in ES demand led to increasing dependence by the Madrid metropolitan area on outlying areas. We found that the number of municipalities that exhibited mismatches between the supply and demand in ES increased throughout the study period, due mainly to urban sprawl. Our results suggest the need for comprehensive land-use planning at the regional scale, taking into account that many ES flows reach beyond municipality boundaries. Finally, we discuss the utility of analyzing spatial mismatches in the supply and demand of ES for land-use planning and decision-making.     

Separate waste collection in mountain municipalities. A case study in Campania

This paper aims to analyse the impact of land characteristics (i.e. altimetry and housing dispersion) on separate waste collection, with a focus on mountain municipalities. The high spatial heterogeneity of the driving factors of separate waste collection allows traditional techniques, such as OLS, to offer only a partial depiction of the situation, missing important information. In this view, we perform the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), which allows to control for the local determinants of waste management. Our data cover 550 municipalities of Campania, in Southern Italy. We control for a set of morphological and socio-economic variables, drawn from official records for 2012. Our results show that the relationships between land characteristics and separate waste collection are not constant over space. Moreover, they suggest that in the presence of non-modifiable factors (such as land characteristics) local governments should act on citizen motivations, promoting awareness on environmental issues, and should implement time-saving collection methods.     

Urban crops and livestock: The experiences,challenges, and opportunities of planning for urban agriculture in two Canadian provinces

While many municipalities globally are currently undertaking initiatives to support urban agriculture, policies and zoning regulations can act as barriers, with the former usually not integrated with planning. Extensive research has been conducted on urban agriculture policies in the global South, but much less is known about associated practices and policies in the global North. This is especially true for the Canadian context and therefore the present study aims at improving our overall understanding of the urban agriculture situation in two Canadian provinces. Relevant policies, such as official plans or official community plans, alternate policy documents and guidelines, zoning by-laws, and animal-related by-laws were reviewed for 10 municipalities in Ontario and in British Columbia, all varying in socio-economic and climatological characteristics. Additional key informant interviews were conducted with municipal planners, community garden coordinators, and other municipal staff familiar with urban agriculture policies from six of the selected municipalities.In line with global trends, our results suggest that urban agriculture is becoming more widespread in the two provinces. However, even though all studied municipalities consistently support urban agriculture, they vary significantly in their approach, with some municipalities focusing much more narrowly on certain types of activities than others. Overall, community advocacy and municipal council support are the most important drivers in the policy process. Key informants expressed a need to bridge existing gaps between policy adoption and implementation of tools, emphasize public education and public awareness, create inventories of land available for urban agriculture, incorporate urban agriculture in the development review process, and focus on the commercial potential of the practice. Encouragingly, despite the many challenges that need to be addressed, we found that many opportunities exist that municipalities could consider when creating improved local urban agriculture policies and tools to enhance the urban food system.     

Compensating for past deforestation: Assessing the legal forest surplus and deficit of the state of Pará, eastern Amazonia

Up to 80% of each private rural property in the Brazilian Amazon is protected by law through the Legal Reserve (LR) mechanism of the federal Forest Code, underlining the conservation importance of forests on private lands in one of the world̿s most important biomes. However, our understanding of the discrepancies in levels of forest protection on private lands as obligated by the law versus what occurs in practice remains very poor. We assessed patterns of forest cover and legal compliance with the Forest Code in the 1.25 Mkm² Brazilian state of Pará, which has the highest deforestation rate in the Amazon. We evaluate the LR deficit and surplus patterns for different sized properties and across 144 municipalities, and found that the total LR surplus (12.6 Mha) was more than five times the total area of deficit (2.3 Mha). Yet, from the total surplus, only 11% can be legally deforested while the remaining 89% is already protected by law but can be used (sold or rented) to compensate for areas that are under deficit. Medium and large-scale properties make up most of the total LR deficit area, while agrarian reform settlements had comparatively large amounts of both compensation-only surplus and deforestable surplus. Most of the municipalities (77%) in the state could compensate their total deficit with surplus areas of LR in the same municipality, while the remainder can be compensate their deficit in one or more neighbouring municipalities, indicating compensation can always take place close to the source of the deficit. Maximising the environmental benefits of achieving Forest Code compliance requires measures that go beyond the existing legal framework, including interventions to avoid further deforestation in places where it is still legal, compensate in close proximity to areas with legal reserve deficit and promote local restoration on degraded lands.     

How do centrality,population growth and urban sprawl impact farmland conversion in Norway?

A strong link has been observed between urbanization processes and conversions of farmland to built-up land. Most previous research has addressed such conversion of farmland in relation to the expansion of larger cities. However, broader analysis of both rural and central areas is needed to increase the empirical basis for these claims. Based on GIS analysis of farmland conversions, this paper aims to expand our understanding of how urban sprawl affects conversion of farmland. We find that most farmland in Norway is converted to built-up areas in relation to existing urban settlement areas. In line with population growth, urban areas in the most central municipalities experience the most significant urban sprawl and loss of farmland. Moreover, the remaining farmland is located in the same areas that already have converted the most. These areas also experience significant pressure for continued land take. Assuming current trends continue, future urban sprawl will pose great challenges for the preservation of farmland in land-use planning. New research and policies are required to handle these challenges more effectively.     

Revisiting the relationship between land price and parcel size in agriculture

Hedonic land price models often use parcel size as an explanatory variable. Empirical analyses, however, are rather ambiguous regarding the direction and the size of the effect of this variable on farmland values. The objective of this paper is to investigate this size–price relation for agricultural land use in detail and to derive recommendations for an appropriate specification of hedonic land price models. Our analysis consists of three steps. First, we conduct a meta-analysis based on a comprehensive literature review. Second, we analyze a dataset of more than 80,000 agricultural land transactions in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany, using the nonparametric locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (LOWESS) estimator. This unconditional smoothing algorithm identifies negative size–price relations for very small and large plots, whereas it finds a positive relation for medium plots. We use this finding in our third step, a hedonic land price model, in which the size–price relation is modeled conditional on land and buyer characteristics. From these steps, we conclude that the complex relationship between land price and plot size cannot be captured by a simple functional form since it is affected by several economic factors, such as economies of size, transaction costs, and financial constraints.     

Deforestation and land tenure in Mexico: A response to Bonilla-Moheno et al.

Bonilla-Moheno et al. published an interesting paper on land tenure as a determinant of deforestation in Mexico, in Land Use Policy in 2013. In this review, we focus critically on the methodology used by the authors to reach two key conclusions. Firstly, we suggest that their use of coarse resolution MODIS EVI data to assess deforestation rates may have resulted in an erroneous conclusion, that forest area in Mexico is increasing rather than decreasing. This finding is contrary to official data and to other recent scientific assessments. Secondly, we question their conclusion that territories under the tenure of ‘comunidades indigenas’ are less likely to experience deforestation, and more likely to experience expansion of forest area, than those under ‘ejidal’ tenure. We believe that the sampling method, which involved the selection of municipalities with high concentrations of one particular type of tenure, and which eliminated the 60% of municipalities which contain mixed forms of tenure, biased the sample, particularly for the case of comunidades. The comunidades included in the sample are almost all found in a single region of the country, which may represent a special case. In reality comunidades are much more widespread through the country. Moreover we find that the explanation given by the authors for the relative success of comunidades in conserving their forests is not founded in data from any study of process at the local level.     

Determinants of crop-livestock integration in Brazil: Evidence from the household and regional levels

Integrated crop-livestock systems (iCL) are advocated as a promising strategy to increase agricultural production and rehabilitate degraded pastures while mitigating GHG emissions. Although iCL in Brazil has increased over the past few years, it still occupies a small share of the country’s total agricultural area. We investigate the determinants of iCL occurrence in Mato Grosso state, a globally important producer of beef cattle and grains that has experienced rapid land cover change and environmental degradation in recent decades. Our analysis encompasses two typical cases of iCL in Mato Grosso (the rotation of soy followed by pasture, and soy followed by maize and pasture) as well as biophysical, socioeconomic, and institutional factors observable at the household and/or municipality levels that may influence the wide-scale occurrence of iCL. Evidence at both scales suggests that knowledge and supply chain infrastructure play an important role in early occurrence of iCL, as they are more common in regions closer to iCL research stations and processing facilities of grains and cattle. On average iCL adopters are more educated and have better access to technical assistance and sector information than specialized farmers or ranchers. Most iCLs are concentrated near established soy areas and greater similarity exists between municipalities with iCL and soy-dominant municipalities vs. pasture-dominant municipalities. Our findings reveal the importance of specific conditions for iCL occurrence and iCL promotion in livestock-dominant regions. Incentives targeted at ranchers are crucial for the achievement of the Brazilian Government’s goal to restore degraded pastures through agricultural intensification.     

The significance of different realms of value for agricultural land in Sweden

The demand for additional agricultural land is expected to rise by approximately 50 per cent by 2050 on a global level, and agricultural land of high quality needs to be preserved to ensure future food security. However, agricultural land per capita is decreasing. One of the main reasons for this in the EU and globally is the building of houses or infrastructure on agricultural land. There is a possibility that the Swedish agricultural sector will grow in the future and supply more regions than its own territory with food due to, e.g., climate change. Although appropriate regulations exist to support local decision makers in protecting agricultural land in Sweden, the potential to provide such protection is not fully utilised. This paper aims to contribute to explaining why Swedish municipalities build on agricultural land through an analysis of the values behind the arguments for preserving and exploiting agricultural land at the municipal level and the implications of these values for the preservation of agricultural land in Sweden. Assuming value pluralism, we analyse 30 municipal comprehensive plans through a framework of nine realms of value. We find that municipalities deploy at least eight of the nine realms of value to motivate the preservation of agricultural land, but the economic realm is more dominant among arguments to exploit agricultural land. Most plans do not consider food security. Municipalities could become better prepared to handle unexpected events if they worked with longer-term future scenarios. Further research is needed regarding how different values are weighed against each other in actual exploitation issues.     

Local regulatory responses during a regional housing shortage: An analysis of rezonings in Silicon Valley

Scholars have partially blamed high housing prices in many metropolitan areas on residential density restrictions. Santa Clara County is the geographic heart of California’s Silicon Valley and is one of the most expensive counties in the U.S. for renters and homebuyers. This research answers two questions about how municipalities change their zoning. First, how common are rezonings? Second, what are the determinants of density-increasing “upzonings” and density-decreasing “downzonings”? This is the first study to analyze rezonings across neighboring municipalities and expands our limited explanations of rezonings. The three largest cities in Santa Clara County are analyzed using a parcel dataset with zoning at two time periods: 2006–2016 for San José and Sunnyvale, and 2012–2016 for the city of Santa Clara. Multinomial logistic regression models are used to compare the relative risk of a parcel being upzoned or downzoned compared with no zoning change. Little land was upzoned in the three cities. San José increased allowable residential densities on 0.6% of its parcel land area on average per year, while Santa Clara averaged 0.3% and Sunnyvale averaged 0.1% per year. Downzoning was less common and tended to involve small reductions in allowable density. San José decreased allowable residential densities on 0.5% of its land area per year, and Santa Clara and Sunnyvale engaged in almost no downzoning. The main findings are: (1) regulatory changes were more likely in San José, the central city, than in the neighboring smaller municipalities; (2) there was little upzoning or downzoning, regardless of a neighborhood’s homeownership rate; and (3) rezonings tended to be small-scale and initiated by property owners rather than through large-scale municipal actions.     

Experimental evidence on the resilience of a cap & trade system for land consumption in Germany

The German government has committed to substantially limiting future land consumption. Among the most prominently discussed policy instruments is the implementation of a cap & trade system for land consumption, in which a limited amount of certificates is allocated to and traded by municipalities. Since these certificates would be a prerequisite for conducting building projects, this system is expected to reduce urban sprawl and foster the efficient allocation of land consumption projects. While previous empirical studies have supported these projections, the potential fragility of a cap & trade system in the case of macroeconomic shocks has not been considered. In three laboratory experiments, we simulate the impact of economic and budgetary crises within a cap & trade scheme for land consumption. We find that a market-based system succeeds in compensating macroeconomic disturbances with only minor welfare losses. Certificate prices in auctions and trading are somewhat more volatile before shocks, yet normalize afterwards. Trading volumes and the specifics of project realizations remain largely unaffected. Unrelated to the macroeconomic shocks, auction and market prices persistently diverge, leading to income redistributions to the state. Overall, our evidence supports the introduction of a market-based certificate scheme to reduce land consumption in Germany due to its resilience against potential shocks.     

Does the Decoupling Reform Affect Agricultural Employment in Sweden? Evidence from an Exogenous Change

This study uses aggregated municipality data, for the years 2001–2009, to explore whether direct payments to farmers affect agricultural employment in Swedish municipalities. The decoupling reform in 2005 included a new grassland support payment accompanied by management obligations that had unexpectedly high redistributive consequences as it greatly increased common agricultural policy payments to municipalities with large areas of grassland. In some municipalities, total payments more than doubled. Thus, since the reform seems exogenous to the behaviour of farmers and the regional economy, the reform can be used to identify a subsidy effect. We find that a permanent increase in agricultural employment can be attributed to the new grassland support. Our results indicate that the grassland support generates an additional job at a cost of SEK 250,000, relative to the average agricultural wage of SEK 333,000. However, the subsidy effect is largely keeping jobs in agriculture, i.e. the grassland support may be slowing down the process of structural change in grassland regions.     

A portfolio analysis of incentive programmes for conservation,restoration and timber plantations in Southern Ecuador

This paper uses portfolio analysis to study how the Ecuadorian incentive programme for forest conservation and restoration (Socio Bosque), and an incentive programme for timber plantations, may reduce income risk and/or maximise returns for a given level of risk for farmers in the municipality of Loja. The main existing land use in the research area is milk production on pasture, with some farmers having forest land. Our results suggest that most farmers would significantly increase the area under conservation and/or restoration as part of their risk reduction strategies, compared to a decision based solely on expected returns. However, in land use allocations that maximise the return per unit of risk, a small group of milk producers without forest would continue milk production on most of their land. In addition, milk producers with forest would significantly decrease deforestation under the land use allocations made when conservation incentives are available. Against this we also identify a likely shift of milk production from existing pasture to new pasture established on deforested land, which provides evidence of a potential ‘leakage effect’. In addition, the incentive programmes would only lead to small areas of tree plantations being established. None of the land use combinations (portfolios) analysed would increase the income of all households to above the poverty line, as the monetary incentives are too low and many farms are too small. For forest holders all the land use combinations we studied would have a positive impact on income, but we observed a negative impact on household income for milk producers without forest. For producers without any forest, there seems to be a trade-off between maximising household income and risk reduction through combining incentives for restoration and tree plantations.     

Evolution of the Amazonian frontier: Land values in Rondônia, Brazil

Patterns in property values provide strong signals about the future and sustainability of land use. This paper analyzes the determinants of land value in an Amazonian frontier settlement. We estimate hedonic price functions to identify factors that affect the value of farm properties in the western Brazilian Amazon. Distance to market explains nearly one-third of the variation in farm value, as predicted by the von Thünen model. After controlling for location relative to the central market and for municipality, we find that investment in the farms (as reflected in the stocking rate of pastures and the establishment of home gardens) has the next largest impact on land value. The value per hectare of land is negatively related to total lot size, suggesting that any economies of scale are outweighed by the cost of accessing remote corners of large properties. We do not find that land values are related to available measures of biophysical factors or to historic or current land use. Our results do not identify any premium for forest cover or for land uses considered to be more sustainable than pasture on the property itself. However, farm values are affected by neighboring land cover, specifically, the extent of barren land. Thus, local knowledge of factors contributing to future productivity, as summarized in land values, confirms that soil exhaustion can lead to a general decline in property values, while investments in a property both as a homestead and as a farm can help sustain frontier settlements.     

State,war, and land dispossession: The multiple paths to land concentration

We focus on the role of the state in land dispossession during war. State agencies promote land accumulation not only through coercive paths, but also by combining political and market mechanisms. Each mechanism may link the state with different actors and coalitions. We illustrate how this worked in Tibú, a Colombian municipality in which violence against civilians and land accumulation took place in more or less distinct phases. The case highlights the fact that land accumulation during war is not only achieved through coercion. At the same time, it shows the importance of identifying the specific coalitions through which states establish their presence in contested territories during war. We explain such variation as resulting from the types of alliances and coalitions that the state establishes with different sets of stakeholders, and the aims pursued by coalition actors.