基于土地利用变化的辉南县生态脆弱性时空变化分析

山区平原过渡地带因其地质、地貌的特殊性而担负着自然地域界面的作用,并表现出更高的生态环境脆弱性,研究其脆弱性变化对山区平原生态安全预警非常重要。特别是从土地利用方式改变评价其生态脆弱性,对于土地利用方式调整和规划具有重要指导意义。本文以地处山区平原过渡区的辉南县为例,在分析其土地利用变化基础上,参照生态价值评估体系并结合周围生态环境敏感因子,建立生态脆弱性综合评价指标,对研究区1986年以来环境脆弱性的时空变化进行评价和分析。评价结果如下：（1）从不同用地类型看,生态综合指数大小顺序依次为林地、草地、水域、未利用地,其次是耕地和建设用地。（2）脆弱性时间变化特征：由于土地利用变化,特别是林地减少和耕地、建设用地增加,导致生态贡献指数、生态稳定性指数和生态综合指数显著下降,分别由1986年的2.999、3.324和6.322减小为2006年的2.828、3.032和5.861。（3）空间变化特征：全区范围内生态环境综合指数下降显著,表现为低值区域范围扩大,高值区域范围明显减小。高值区范围由1986年的33217.95ha缩小为2006年的1283.40ha,而低值区的范围则由1986年的86550.87ha扩大为2006年的98084.83 ha。（4）地区差异性：虽然三个生态指数在整体上呈现下降,但是不同子流域其变化表现出显著的差异性,总体上呈现东南山区减小,而西北平原区呈现不明显的增加特点。本文研究结果表明,导致研究区生态脆弱性的主要原因为林地减少和耕地增加。从保护生态环境角度,控制耕地增加和林地减少是有效防范措施。     

Switzerland’s transition from flood defence to flood-adapted land use–A policy coordination perspective

This contribution examines Switzerland’s shift towards integrated flood risk management from a policy coordination perspective. The study applies a heuristic framework of policy coordination to explore how adaption needs promoted cross-sectoral policy coordination between hydraulic engineering and land use planning and enhanced coherence in flood policies targeting extreme flood events. To account for the temporal dimension in policy coordination, the article traces Swiss flood policies back to the early 1800s and distinguishes four phases of policy coordination. Across the four periods, the analysis focuses on (a) the drivers of policy coordination, (b) the manifestation of policy coordination in terms of policy frames, goals, instruments and subsystem involvement, and (c) the performance of policy coordination. Complemented by an in-depth case study of cross-sectoral flood policies in the Swiss canton Nidwalden findings show that the coordination between flood and land use policies has primarily been driven by three factors: (i) extreme floods as focusing events, (ii) an increasing problem pressure, and (iii) strategic reorientations in flood and land use policies. Today, flood risk management in Switzerland displays a high degree of sectoral interplay between hydraulic engineering and spatial planning. By fostering flood-adapted land uses Switzerland’s coordinated flood policies reduce the vulnerability to uncertain future changes in flood risk and strengthen the country’s capacities to mitigate damage in extreme floods events.     

Modeling the effects of tourism and land regulation on land-use change in tourist regions: A case study of the Lijiang River Basin in Guilin,China

To a large extent, tourism development triggers an economic boost in certain regions. However, given its complex and dynamic forms of land use, tourism development also causes changes to land-use demands and patterns in tourist regions, which directly and indirectly interfere with local environments. The development of tourist regions must achieve a series of trade-offs to meet sustainability goals. This paper discusses the effects of tourism on land-use change and how land regulation policies integrate tourism development with land use. We employed a system dynamic-cellular automata hybrid model using the Lijiang River Basin as an example to translate tourism-affected land dynamics into spatial distributions and project their likely future changes under various development scenarios. We determined three major outcomes. (1) Tourism development causes a quantitatively increasing demand for construction land. With effective spatial regulations, the expansion of construction land does not necessarily suggest the loss of eco-land; rather, land-use pressures accordingly shift to cropland. Under these circumstances, land regulation policies help to balance land demand and optimize land-use patterns. (2) Tourism development causes a continuous spatial interference with landscapes. Land regulation policies have the positive and active effect of ignoring this interference rather than counteracting it. (3) The strict implementation of land regulation policies does not necessarily improve land-use patterns. Flexible policies achieve a better balanced land-use pattern than a combination of individual strict policies. However, the former cannot reduce as much vulnerability as the latter. Hence, policy assembly represents a trade-off with regards to balancing land demands, and it should vary based on regional land-use patterns and targets.     

Quantitative micro-scale flood risk assessment in a section of the Trotuș River,Romania

This paper focuses on the estimation of direct damages caused by three flood scenarios with different return periods in the section Făgetul de Sus – Ghimeş – Palanca Pass of Trotuș River, with the aim of highlighting the need of improved land use plans. The damage for three land use classes (residential building, infrastructure and agriculture) were estimated using the damage curves developed by the European Joint Research Centre (JRC) as well as site specific maximum damage values. The data were processed with the help of the ArcMap 10.2 software and FloodRisk tool from QGIS software. Furthermore, the flood risk was assessed using the damage – probability curves, which associates the damage with the corresponding frequency of occurrence. This method was identified and adapted to the characteristics of the study area in order to develop a methodology of flood risk assessment that is answering the question: does the lack of land use plans increase the vulnerability and the flood damage? The results showed that the greatest damages are registered for the residential building land use class for a flood probability of 0.001. In this case the damages reach up to 60% on the scale range of deterioration factor, the total damage value being 2 million euros. For the same hazard probability the total registered damage value for roads is 7500 euro, for railways is around 12,000 euro, while for agriculture is around 84,000 euro. These results highlight the need of protection measures and land use plans development and implementation. Regarding the protection measures we consider that the egalitarianism would be the concept that should be applied in the study area and also an improved cooperation between government, specialized agencies and local authorities at local level would lead to a more efficient flood risk management process. The proposed methodology can be applied for micro-scale analysis, providing quantitative results regarding the flood damage and flood risk assessment. It includes a detailed vulnerability analysis of the elements-at-risk with the aim of developing a more comprehensive approach of flood risk assessment.     

城市土地利用碳排放系统动力学仿真研究——以武汉市为例

研究目的:从系统角度分析土地、人口、社会、经济、能源对碳排放的影响作用,并对武汉市2017—2030年不同政策情景下的土地利用碳排放进行模拟,为其低碳发展战略和低碳土地利用规划提供决策依据。研究方法:系统动力学方法。研究结果:(1)建立的城市土地利用碳排放系统动力学模型是有效的;(2)按照目前的发展趋势,武汉市的碳排放总量将保持逐年攀升的趋势;(3)经济的快速发展对武汉市土地利用碳排放量的增加具有显著的影响作用;(4)调整土地利用结构、调整产业结构以及提高能源利用效率都能够有效的减少武汉市土地利用碳排放量,其中调整土地利用结构和调整产业结构的作用效果相对来说更加明显。研究结论:转变经济增长方式、升级产业结构、调整土地利用结构和积极研发先进的低碳科学技术是武汉市低碳发展的重要途径。     

长江经济带城市洪涝脆弱性评估——以南京、武汉和成都为例

在全球气候变暖和海平面上升的背景下,随着城市化水平的不断提高,城市系统面临洪涝灾害的风险形势也更加严峻。构建长江经济带城市洪涝脆弱性评估模型,采用熵权法确定权重,运用模糊集对分析法判断样本所属等级,对南京、武汉和成都的城市洪涝脆弱性进行评估。结果表明:2012—2016年,南京市平均洪涝脆弱度最低,受低人口密度、建成区高绿化率以及较高经济密度作用,洪涝脆弱性整体呈下降趋势;武汉市平均洪涝脆弱度最高,由于人口密度过高、建成区绿化率过低导致洪涝脆弱性呈现恶化态势;成都市平均洪涝脆弱度位于中等,受人口密度下降、经济密度和排水管道密度上升的影响,洪涝脆弱性呈下降趋势;提出了大力发展当地经济、合理调整城市化速度、兴修排水基本设施等降低长江经济带城市洪涝脆弱性的建议。     

农地整治区农户生计脆弱性指数评估研究——基于湖北荆门和宜昌的实证研究

[目的]农地整治能通过多种有效途径改善农户的生计资本。以农地整治的角度切入来研究农户生计脆弱性的变化规律,探究农地整治对农户生计脆弱性的影响,为探索改善农户生计的可持续性提供理论借鉴。[方法]以农地整治对生计资本的直接改善为出发点,基于可持续生计分析框架,根据IPCC关于脆弱性的解释,建立农地整治区农户生计脆弱性评估框架体系,其主要涵盖农户面临的自然风险、生计资本以及适应策略3方面,通过熵权法确定指标权重。基于湖北省荆门、宜昌两地区的394户农户调查问卷,运用生计脆弱性评估框架计算得到农地整治前后农户生计脆弱性指数,同时,针对荆门、宜昌两地区分别进行评估研究。[结果](1)农地整治前后农户生计脆弱性指数分别为-0.223和-0.423,在整治之后农户生计脆弱性显著降低。(2)生计脆弱性指数变化的影响因素存在地区性差异。荆门地区整治前后的生计脆弱性指数变化依次受旱地情况、耕地灌溉情况、村庄绿化设施、农田水利设施的变化量等因素的影响;宜昌地区整治前后生计脆弱性指数变化依次受农田水利设施、村庄道路通达、村庄绿化设施、田间道路、耕地灌溉情况、水田情况、旱地情况的变化量等因素的影响。[结论]为提高农户福利水平,降低其生计脆弱性,建议农地整治的规划与实施要进一步关注农户生计问题,特别重视相关自然资本和物质资本的改善,同时不同实施地区要从贡献因素排序出发,实现提高农户生计脆弱性改善的目的。     

基于主成分分析的流转农地用途变化动力研究

研究目的：以重庆市忠县为例,分析2002—2007年流转农地用途变化的特征,揭示流转农地用途变化的驱动力和制动力,为严格流转农地用途管制提供建议。研究方法：实证分析法,主成分分析法。研究结果：流转农地用途变化驱动力主要为农地流转市场、土地利用比较利益、地方行为驱动;制动力主要为耕地保护政策和农地流转管理制动。研究结论：流转农地用途变化是驱动力与制动力的共同作用。在实际流转中,应建立耕地保护的共同责任机制,发挥市场的基础性作用,严格流转农地的用途管制。     

不同空间尺度下城市土地利用绩效评价指标体系的构建

指标选择是评价土地利用绩效的基础,目前许多学者从不同角度建立了土地利用绩效评价指标体系,为土地利用评价奠定了理论基础,然而构建土地利用绩效评价指标体系仍是学术界的重要任务。已有的一些城市土地利用评价指标忽视空间尺度,针对性、层次性、区域性等不明显,因此本文主要针对建成区和市辖区两个空间尺度建立城市土地利用绩效评价指标体系。     

广州市主城区土地利用变化特征的空间分析

基于1990年和2006年卫星遥感TM影像获取的土地利用信息,以广州市主城区为研究区域,运用土地利用动态度、土地利用综合指教,以及根据土地利用结构特征计算了土地的紧凑性系数和相对熵值,本文分析了广州市主城区土地利用结构域动态变化、以及土地利用的空间变换特征.结果表明:广州主城区土地利用综合指数呈增加态势,尤其以建设用地...     

Integrated research on land-use changes in the face of urban transformations – An analytic framework for further studies

We state that land use is under constant pressure, no matter if land-use changes take place in growing or shrinking cities. Land-use changes witness multiple interdependencies between environmental, social and economic factors. In urban areas land is highly exposed to accelerating consumption which makes it a scarce and precious resource. Therefore we need transformative processes to deal with land use in a more sensible and responsible way. We define urban transformations as fundamental, multi-dimensional changes in urban land-use patterns, population developments, infrastructures, governance regimes as well as established values, norms and behaviours. A central focus is on land use and its changes to supply ecosystem services as key driver for quality of life. Most important for us is that transformative processes are highly dynamic and non-linear, thus affecting functions of urban land uses in different ways and with varying consequences. In this sense, governance research is a decisive component to implement our research in practice. With this viewpoint we want to contribute to a debate on land-use changes in alternating growing and shrinking cities to foster appropriate development responses for urban transformations towards sustainability.     

Climate resilient urban development: Why responsible land governance is important

In less-developed countries, the major global pressures of rapid urbanization and climate change are resulting in increased vulnerability for urban dwellers. Much of the climate impact is concentrated in urban and coastal areas, as urban development spreads into areas that are hazard-prone. Often this development is dominated by poor quality homes in informal settlements or slums on informal or illegally occupied or subdivided land.Urban development needs to be more climate-resilient to meet the post millennium development goals (MDGs) agenda. One of the elements in achieving climate-resilient urban development is the degree to which climate change adaptation and risk management are mainstreamed into two major elements of land governance, viz. securing and safeguarding of land rights, and planning and control of land-use.This paper proposes ways in which the growth of human settlements can be better managed through responsible governance of land tenure rights, and effective land-use planning to reduce vulnerability, provide adequate access to safe land and shelter, and improve environmental sustainability.     

Using participatory mapping and a participatory geographic information system in pastoral land use investigation: Impacts of rangeland policy in Botswana

Since the 1980s, the spatial extent of communal grazing lands in Botswana has been diminishing due to rangeland privatisation and fencing associated with animal health policies. Spatial comparisons of pastoral land use transformations are particularly important where accessibility to grazing and water resources remains at the core of sustainable pastoralism policies. Achieving success in pastoral development research requires a sound understanding of traditional pastoralists’ information systems, including the nature of local spatial knowledge. This study explores local spatial knowledge through participatory mapping and a Participatory Geographic Information System to understand and analyse pastoralists’ grazing patterns, spatial mobility and the impacts of subdivisions and privatisation policies in Botswana’s Ngamiland rangelands. The study uses focus group discussions, historical analysis through key informant interviews, and participatory mapping exercises along with community guided transect walks. The resulting maps provide insights into the traditional tenure patterns of land use and the impacts of rangeland policy on traditional livestock spatial mobility and access to grazing lands. Privatisation and rangeland enclosures have resulted in the restricted movement of livestock and overstocking of floodplains and riparian rangelands, with some natural water pans becoming inaccessible to local communities. We conclude that the integration of local spatial knowledge can be used to foster better articulation and understanding of pastoralists’ tenures, which are often lacking in communal land administration systems. Such integrated analysis can contribute to sustainable pastoral land management policy toolkits in semi-arid rangeland environments and enable better land tenure and management decision making for sustainable land management.     

Climate change versus land-use change—What affects the mountain landscapes more?

Land use and climate change are both strong drivers of landscape transformation. Using a representative valley of the Central Alps (Stubai Valley, Tyrol, Austria) we assess (1) the historical and likely future spatial patterns of land use/land cover (LULC), (2) the influence of temperature increase on the LULC distribution, and (3) the speed at which these changes will occur. Based on the historical landscape development and spatially explicit models, the effects of various land use and climate scenarios were modelled. Employing a pan-Alpine model, we were able to detect the temporal trajectory of spatial reforestation. The results show that land-use changes that already occurred during the last decades are responsible for the main future LULC changes (by secondary succession). Only an extreme land abandonment scenario and extreme climate scenarios (5 K temperature increase) would bring about similar changes in LULC distribution and expansion of the forested areas. While alpine grasslands, alpine pioneer formation and glaciers would shrink drastically, especially deciduous forests would spread. To a considerable degree, such changes might take place over the next 300 years. By contrast, the increase in forest areas triggered by temperature changes would be slower and longer termed (up to 700–800 years).The effects and intensity of land-use change in the investigated valley, that is comparable to many regions in the Alps, will be at least equally severe and responsible for transformation of the landscape as those of a projected temperature increase.     

武汉城市圈“两型社会”视角下的土地利用综合评价

从"两型社会"的视角构建武汉城市圈土地利用综合评价指标体系,选择常用的德尔菲咨询法和熵值法相结合的主客观组合赋权法计算指标权重,运用多因素综合评价法对武汉城市圈2000—2015年的土地利用进行定量评价,分析其时空演化特征,并对其趋势发展进行预测。研究结果表明:武汉城市圈内部各城市间发展的差异性较明显,9个城市正经历4种土地利用阶段;受区位条件和地形地貌条件的影响,武汉城市圈土地利用具有典型的圈层效应和带状分布的特点;基于"两型社会"特征的建设成效显著,土地集约利用和土地生态环境效益均取得了较大的正向发展,但是城市圈内部各城市土地集约利用水平的差异性趋向扩大化;预测结果表明,城市圈整体在2030年左右才能实现武汉市2015年的土地利用水平。针对研究结果,以提升土地利用水平,促进区域协调发展为目标,提出了运用科技手段提高科学用地水平、加强环境治理力度以及大力发展"绿色经济"和循环经济以形成可持续产业发展的对策与建议。     

县级土地利用功能区的划分与调整——以广西壮族自治区上思县为例

作为土地管理的重要调控手段,土地利用功能分区协调区域内各种用地,限制不适当的用地方式,实现土地资源的合理利用和可持续发展。在研究土地利用功能区划分原则和方法的基础上,以上思县土地利用现状为例,选取了8个评价指标,利用聚类分析的方法进行了土地利用功能分区,最后根据当地实际情况调整分区结果,并对不同的功能区制定相应的空间管制措施。     

黑龙江省城市土地利用绩效评价及其时空变化特征分析

定量分析和评价城市土地利用绩效并确定其空间分布,有助于土地管理的宏观调控和土地资源的优化配置。本文以黑龙江省12个地级市建成区为研究区,从土地利用程度、土地利用效率、土地利用可持续性和土地管理四个方面构建城市土地利用绩效评价指标体系,运用熵权法确定权重,采用多目标综合评价法对2001~2012年黑龙江省12个城市土地利用绩效水平进行分析比较;并以评价结果为样本点,通过聚类分析得出黑龙江省城市土地利用绩效水平的空间分布特征。结果表明:2001~2012年,12个地级市的土地利用绩效水平呈不同变化趋势,总体绩效水平上升,根据评价结果将12个城市分为土地利用高绩效地区、中等绩效地区和低绩效地区三大类;在空间上,城市土地利用绩效水平整体呈现西高东低、南高北低的特征格局,各城市的土地利用绩效水平差距较明显。     

武汉市城市土地集约利用评价研究初探

在界定城市土地集约利用内涵的基础上,以此为标准,结合武汉市城市土地利用的各项指标数据,选取相应的评价指标体系,首先应用层次分析法构建评价模型并确定指标权重,对武汉市城市用地集约程度进行定量化评价;同时应用多城市对比评价方法与其进行评价效果的比较,以期得到该市土地利用较准确的评价成果.根据评价结果结合武汉市土地利用的实际情况提出了提高城市土地集约利用程度的途径措施.     

Land-use changes and policy dimension driving forces in China: Present,trend and future

China has extremely scarce land resources compared to the world average. There is an urgent need for studies of the current situation and the trends in land-use change and assessment of the performance of land policies in China. Assessment of land-use change has long been hindered by a lack of accurate and reliable data. This paper uses the data obtained from the national land surveys of 1996 and land-use change surveys from 1997 to 2008, to analyze changes in land use and the policy dimension driving forces related to the changes, especially cultivated land, forestry land, grassland, as well as developed land. The aim of this analysis will be to derive the physical, social and economical driving forces of those changes to grasp the trends in land-use change and the effects of land policies and to formulate strategies for the protection and sustainable use of agricultural land. The results indicate that, although the overall change in land use was not large, cultivated land was significantly reduced and developed land rapidly increased. A great deal of high quality cultivated land was changed to developed land and low quality cultivated land generated from unused land, which has resulted in a serious threat to food supplies in China. Predictions using the methods of linear extrapolation and a BP neural network indicate that it is impossible to keep to a target of 0.12 billion hectares of cultivated land in the future under the mode of economic development used between 1996 and 2008. The results also indicate that the implementation of the laws and regulations about controlling the developed land and preserving cultivated land had significant effects on changes in land use, especially cultivated land and developed land. The results suggest that the changes in land use are closely related to economic fluctuation and the enaction and implementation of these land policies had a little time lag for cultivated land protection. There is a pressing need for China to use its limited land resources more efficiently and effectively by enacting or re-enforcing the laws and regulations on land resources protection and economic development, not only for its own growing population, but also the world. Therefore, we must formulate strategies for the protection and sustainable use of agricultural land.     

Major issues in Indonesia's urban land development

This article addresses issues of urban land development in Indonesia, including urban land use; ownership and transfers; land taxation; and land information systems. Until very recently, urban land-use planning in Indonesia was largely top-down in character and neglected to include the public as a stakeholder. This article argues that the role of government in urban land-use development needs to change at all levels and that the capacity of local government in land-use management needs to be strengthened. The presence of private developers in urban development should be encouraged. Land development permits—as a means of urban development control—while they may still be necessary should be granted primarily in relation to urban land-use plans (RUTR). Land taxation instruments have not been effectively applied to control land utilisation in the cities. Data and information on land affairs are lacking.