Can wildlife management units reduce land use/land cover change and climate change vulnerability? Conditions to encourage this capacity in Mexican municipalities

Climate change and land use/land cover change (LULCC) are associated with local vulnerability, defined as the intrinsic tendency of a system to be negatively affected by an event or phenomenon, but this can be ameliorated by ecosystem conservation. In Mexico, extensive Wildlife Management Units (eWMUs) are environmental policy instruments designed to promote ecosystem conservation and rural development via the sustainable use of wildlife by local populations. However, evidence of the successful reduction of LULCC by eWMUs is contradictory, and there has been no investigation into their potential as an action to promote climate change adaptation. In this study, we focused on the overall patterns of LULCC associated with eWMU throughout the country and examined strengths and weaknesses of eWMUs as policy instruments to address climate change. In particular, we analyzed how differences in areas with eWMUs influence LULCC and assessed how eWMUs could contribute to reducing vulnerability, particularly in double exposure municipalities. We calculated the percentage of eWMUs per municipality from official information and estimated LULCC from vegetation changes between 2002 and 2011. We then used the Kruskal-Wallis test to find statistically significant differences in vegetation changes based on the percentage of eWMUs and performed between-group comparisons using a post hoc Dunn test. Although Mexico has 2456 municipalities, only 37% have eWMUs. Furthermore, 64% of Mexico’s municipalities have lost vegetation cover, whereas only 36% have either gained vegetation or remained stable. In municipalities that recorded changes to the vegetation, those changes were, overall, minimal and involved less than 10% of the total area of those municipalities. In general, municipalities with less than 10% of their total area dedicated to eWMUs experienced higher vegetation losses than those with more than 10% of their total area dedicated to eWMUs. We detected twelve double exposure municipalities, i.e. they are vulnerable to climate change and lost more than 10% of their vegetation. Double exposure municipalities dedicated less than 2% of their total area to eWMUs as well. Our results suggest that incremental increases in the area dedicated to eWMUs may reduce LULCC and protect vegetation, particularly in double exposure municipalities. Based on the literature, some ecological, economic and socio-cultural factors may determine the success of eWMUs and strongly impact LULCC. Therefore, additional efforts must be made to enhance our understanding of ecological and climatic processes; habitats must be monitored using a standardized methodology; biological, cultural, economic and institutional diversity must be incorporated into the planning, implementation and monitoring of eWMUs; and agreements must be established to strengthen social organization and human capital. Taking all this into account, we suggest that reducing vulnerability and improving double exposure areas by increasing the number and interconnectedness of eWMUs could represent an effective strategic approach at the municipal level to address LULCC and climate change.     

Are municipal land use plans keeping pace with global climate change?

Published research on municipal climate change plans to date has been strictly cross-sectional: it reveals the status of plans at particular points in time, but does not examine whether and how plans are evolving over time to keep pace with our understanding of climate change. We build on a 2011 study of plans in the Canadian province of British Columbia by examining updated versions of those plans as of 2015. We find that the climate change content in the plans did not change much from 2011-2015 and that there is much room for improvement. Our findings suggest that municipalities can possibly strengthen their plans by: (1) investing resources into creating and maintaining a detailed inventory of factual information regarding local climate risk and vulnerability, and (2) fostering political support among elected officials and residents for developing climate change planning goals and implementation mechanisms to help achieve the goals.     

Does reading scenarios of future land use changes affect willingness to participate in land use planning?

Scenarios of future outcomes often provide context for policy decisions and can be a form of science communication, translating complex and uncertain relationships into stories for a broader audience. We conducted a survey experiment (n = 270) to test the effects of reading land use change scenarios on willingness to participate in land use planning activities. In the experiment, we tested three combinations of scenarios across two time periods, comparing survey responses of individuals reading a set of scenarios with individuals who did not read scenarios. Reading scenario narratives increased willingness to participate in land use planning activities and perceived self-efficacy. Measures of interest and sense of community also increased willingness to participate. Tests of an indirect mediation model found self-efficacy partially mediated the effect of reading scenarios on willingness to participate. This latter relationship may be a mechanistic explanation for the effect of reading scenarios. Envisioning the future with brief, bulleted scenarios of land use change in a print format appears to increase self-efficacy in planning for the future. Our results suggest scenarios can serve as a vehicle for changing public participation in land use planning.     

“Let's try to get the best out of it” understanding land transactions during land use change

This article investigates land transactions in relation to intended land use change from a micro-scale perspective. A better understanding of land transactions is important for understanding and influencing how land is used. The aim is to explore how the different aspects and their interrelations influence landowner behaviour during land transactions initiated by the government. The study draws on 42 explorative interviews with land purchasers, land policy experts, planning professionals and local farmers.The study shows that uncertainty, and feelings of justice are pivotal aspects during land transactions. Moreover, land transactions are co-evolving with the planning process. Landowners exhibit strategic behaviour based on their personal situation and their expectations on uncertain aspects. The strategies are strongly interrelated with the evolution of land use change. Land use changes are both input on which actors base their strategies, as well as the outcome of those strategies. The aspects found in this study were strongly interrelated and changed over time. Some aspects were context dependent, while others are expected to influence land transactions in general. In this light, the strength of a successful planner is twofold: on the one hand a planner needs to be a good communicator; on the other hand a planner should be able to deal with uncertainty and expectations during plan processes.     

Farmers and Consumers: Towards Symbiosis?

Public declarations on the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) have recently become more consumer-oriented, aiming at transparency and defence of consumer interests. Even demonstrations have changed: fewer occupations of railways, motorways, and airports, and more free distribution of grilled steaks, milk, and fruit to citizens.     

How to assess the impact of hope on a change in the use of land on market value?

This article is devoted to common yet quite specific approaches to valuation practice tasks that are involved in determining the market value of real properties in areas of possible land use changes. An intrinsic element of market value in such areas is the hope value, for which an option pricing model is used quite frequently.The authors propose a specially adapted Samuelson-McKean model for this task, which allows market value indication to be determined not only with the built-in development option, but also the dynamics of its components value in the current highest and best use and hope value – depending on the location of the given property. The greatest advantage of the Samuelson-McKean model is that it can be treated as universal for analyzing the range of possible indications of market value seeing as how its main task is to find a compromise between the interests of the buyer and the seller, which is the goal of any fair transactions and decisions.     

Farmers’ risk preferences and their climate change adaptation strategies in the Yongqiao District,China

Farmers’ risk preferences play an important role in agricultural production decisions. This study characterizes risk preferences among farmers in Yongqiao and determines how these risk preferences are related to their choices regarding climate change adaptation strategies. We find that most farmers in the study area were aware of climate change. They were taking measures to protect their livelihoods against perceived changes to the local climate. The risk experiment result shows that the representative subject was risk averse, and women were more risk averse than men. The relationships between farmers’ risk preferences and different climate change adaptation choices were different. Farmers’ risk aversion was negatively and significantly related with adaptation strategies on planting new crop varieties and adopting new technology, but it had a significantly positive effect on purchasing weather index crop insurance. The results also indicate that the level of education, farming experience, farm size, household income and perception of climate change impacts influence farmers’ adaptation decisions.     

Are forest plantation subsidies affecting land use change and off-farm income? A farm-level analysis of Chilean small forest landowners

Forest plantations have increased rapidly in the last three decades, to a large extent due to direct and indirect financial incentives. At the farm level, forestry incentives can affect the investment decisions of small forest landowners and bring socioeconomic externalities or unintended effects associated with farm management. The purpose of this study is to assess the ex post impacts of a forestry subsidy on land use changes and off-farm income experienced by Chilean small forest landowners. A structural equation mediation model (SEM) was estimated using a time frame of 15 years (1998–2013). To reduce the selection bias, propensity score matching (PSM) was performed prior to the estimation of the SEM. Results indicate that the subsidy had a significant effect on land use changes, as it increases forest plantations and replaces pastures primarily, but also crops and native forest to a lesser extent. In addition, beneficiaries of the subsidy had a marginal increase in off-farm income not explained by the increase in forest plantation.     

Why have land use change models for the Amazon failed to capture the amount of deforestation over the last decade?

Land cover change in the Neotropics represents one of the major drivers of global environmental change. Several models have been proposed to explore future trajectories of land use and cover change, particularly in the Amazon. Despite the remarkable development of these tools, model results are still surrounded by uncertainties. None of the model projections available in the literature plausibly captured the overall trajectory of land use and cover change that has been observed in the Amazon over the last decade. In this context, this study aims to review and analyze the general structure of the land use models that have most recently been used to explore land use change in the Amazon, seeking to investigate methodological factors that could explain the divergence between the observed and projected rates, paying special attention to the land demand calculations. Based on this review, the primary limitations inherent to this type of model and the extent to which these limitations can affect the consistency of the projections will also be analyzed. Finally, we discuss potential drivers that could have influenced the recent dynamic of the land use system in the Amazon and produced the unforeseen land cover change trajectory observed in this period. In a complementary way, the primary challenges of the new generation of land use models for the Amazon are synthesized.     

Changing land use to alternative crops: A rural landholder’s perspective

Alternative crops, combined with modern farming methods, are integral parts of the new agricultural model and dominant priorities of agricultural policy. The new conditions created in the internal and global markets of agricultural products indicate significant opportunities for growing alternative crops and for the introduction of modern farming practices and processing. The present study aims to assess the factors that determine the landholder’s decision to uptake an alternative crop. Primary data were gathered through a quantative survey (in-depth interviews) with landholders in two remote and less-favored prefectures of Northeastern Greece, and were analysed through a logistic regression model. The results indicate that the most significant determinants for adopting an alternative crop involve the scientific support to farmers, the development of product demand in the market, the creation of agricultural cooperatives, the development of promotional campaigns for the alternative products, the education and knowledge regarding alternative crops, and the landholder’s satisfaction with income. On the contrary, negative factors to their decision refer to exports development, product subsidies, landholder’s age, membership to a cooperative in its current form, and satisfaction with pesticides prices. Despite the dominance of conventional agriculture models and varieties, the new favorable investment conditions can spur the promotion of alternative crops.     

Is Oregon's land use planning program conserving forest and farm land? A review of the evidence

Planners have long been interested in understanding ways in which land use planning approaches play out on the ground and planning scholars have approached the task of evaluating such effects using a variety of methods. Oregon, in particular, has been the focus of numerous studies owing to its early-adopted and widely recognized statewide approach to farm and forest land protection and recent experiment with relaxation of that approach in 2004 with the passage of ballot Measure 37. In this paper we review research-based evidence regarding the forest and farm land conservation effects of Oregon land use planning. We document the evolution of methods used in evaluating state land use planning program performance, including trend analysis, indicator analysis, empirical models, and analysis of indirect effects on the economic viability of forestry and farming. We also draw on data documenting Measure 37 claims to consider the degree to which Measure 37 might have altered land use and development trends had its impacts not been tempered by a subsequent ballot measure – Measure 49. Finally, we provide a synthesis of the current state of knowledge and suggest opportunities for future research. Common to nearly all of the studies we reviewed was an acknowledgement of the difficulty in establishing causal relationships between land use planning and land use change given the many exogenous and endogenous factors involved. Despite these difficulties, we conclude that sufficient evidence does exist to suggest that Oregon's land use planning program is contributing a measurable degree of protection to forest and farm land in the state.     

Who are forest-dependent people? A taxo nomy to aid livelihood and land use decision-making in forested regions

The relationship between forests and people is of substantial interest to peoples and agencies that govern and use them, private sector actors that seek to manage and profit from them, NGOs who support and implement conservation and development projects, and researchers who study these relationships and others. The term ⿿forest-dependent people⿿ is widely used to describe human populations that gain some form of benefits from forests. But despite its long history and widespread use, there are substantial divergences in who the term refers to, what each of its constituent words mean, and how many forest-dependent people there are globally. This paper identifies the range of existing uses and definitions of the term ⿿forest-dependent people⿿, and summarizes them in a systematic taxonomy. Our taxonomy exposes the dimensions that characterize the relationships between people and forests, and leads to two conclusions: First, an absolute, universally accepted definition of the term is untenable. Rather, users of the term ⿿forest-dependent people⿿ need to comprehensively define their population of interest with reference to the context and purpose of their forest- and people-related objectives. The framework and language of our taxonomy aims to aid such efforts. Second, conservation and development program funders, designers, and implementers must reconsider whether forest dependence is an appropriate target for policy objectives.     

The iLUC dilemma: How to deal with indirect land use changes when governing energy crops?

Due to land use effects, bioenergy use may cause adverse effects on biodiversity, soil and water and may even fail to guarantee a GHG emissions reduction compared to fossil fuel use. Accounting methodologies and policy instruments were elaborated to prevent these effects, but there is still no sound and consensual methodology to take into account indirect land use change that substantially contributes to GHG emissions as well as a loss of biodiversity. While the iLUC hypothesis, that is the potentiality of adverse effects arising from indirect land use change related to biomass cultivation, is hardly subject to dispute, the quantification of these effects and especially their policy implications are however contentious. Hence, bioenergy policies worldwide face a dilemma: Neglecting iLUC effects that do in fact exist or taking them into account although no sound methodology is available? The article covers the current state of the discussion and also analyses the approaches developed for taking indirect land use change into account. Assessment criteria for coping with the iLUC dilemma are developed and policy recommendations are derived from that.     

Farmers’ land use decision-making in the context of changing land and conservation policies: A case study of Doi Mae Salong in Chiang Rai Province,Northern Thailand

In Thailand, land use planning and policy decision-making were—and to some extent still are—organized in a hierarchical and disjointed fashion. This is also true for the utilization of public lands, including forest reserves in the northern uplands that are often settled by ethnic minorities. There are, however, instances of change in land policies and regulations and in the way decisions and plans are made. Doi Mae Salong (DMS) in Northern Thailand, where there is a trend towards land use for conservation purposes, is a case in point. This paper aims to explore decision-making by farmers in DMS in the context of changing land regulations and policies from the 1950s to the present. The Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework, together with a historical perspective and with narratives on land management through time, were applied by using in-depth interviews of key informants and group farmers’ discussions as tools. The time period under investigation was divided into three periods of change: The first period, before the year 1960, was an era of security concern. In contrast, the second period, from 1961 to 1996, was an era of emerging conservation priorities. Finally, the third period, from 1997 to the present, is an era of lessons learned from the conservation era. Land use decision outcomes reveal that the decision-making processes of farmers are influenced both by the hierarchical decisions of higher authorities and by horizontal linkages among multiple stakeholders. However, while farmers participate readily in forest conservation activities, they do not play an active role in the process of changing policies.     

Strategic public land use assessment and planning in Victoria,Australia: Four decades of trailblazing but where to from here?

While various attempts have been made to establish strategic environmental assessment (SEA) processes and institutions in various jurisdictions within Australia, the success of these often short lived attempts at institutional approaches for managing public land use conflict has been patchy. The experience in the State of Victoria has been somewhat different, with public land use assessment and planning having been informed by a series of independent statutory bodies since 1970 (the Land Conservation Council, Environment Conservation Council, and Victorian Environmental Assessment Council). These SEA bodies have played a major role in mediating environmental conflict over public land use, and have significantly contributed to the increased size and coverage of Victoria's protected area system. However, while there has always been a statutory body in operation, the roles and responsibilities of these bodies have been subject to significant legislative change, with existing bodies replaced by new bodies in 1997 and 2001. Justifications for these reforms included changing circumstances and new understandings about environmental management, as well as changing views about public administration. As a way of contributing to enhancing the design of institutions and processes for strategic environmental assessment, this paper provides an assessment of Victoria's approach and discusses possible future directions.     

The present and future use of ‘land’ below ground

The world's subsurface space, including Britain's, is already used in a variety of ways, ranging from occupancy to disposal and the bulk storage of materials and fuels. In the future it is likely that it will be put to further use in response to trends in technology, resource supply and demand, socioeconomics and geopolitics. Here the present and future uses of underground space, and the potential planning and social issues affecting its development, are reviewed. Future uses are likely to be in the area of increasing occupancy (both commercial and residential), the secure storage of documents and data, the storage of carbon dioxide for carbon abatement, natural gas, compressed air stores of energy from traditional and renewable sources, the use of underground heat in buildings and the proposed deep geological disposal of radioactive waste. The article will also explore pressure points and challenges. These will include the regulation of multiple uses of subsurface storage space and, for projects of national importance including natural gas and radioactive waste storage, legislation to lessen the effect of local opposition relative to the ‘national need’. This article does not discuss future mining, hydrocarbon extraction, or water resources.     

Does demographic change affect land use patterns?: A case study from Germany

Recent demographic change, mainly characterised by a decreasing and ageing population, is seen as one of the main factors for future land use development in Europe. However, there is still insufficient evidence about the relationship between demographic changes and land use changes since quantitative studies dealing with these interactions are still rare. We aim to fill that gap by presenting the first comprehensive study that investigates statistical relationships and spatial differentiations between demographic and land use change for the whole of Germany. Our study is based on data for the period from 1995/1996 to 2003/2004. The results clearly show that in most growing regions in the West of Germany a correlation was found between land use, natural population growth and net-migration, whereas for land use change in the shrinking regions in the East of Germany economic variables are of noticeable importance. A cluster analysis reveals “gaining” and “shrinking” regions concerning both urbanisation and demographic change. Neither a decreasing nor an ageing population imply reduced land consumption for housing and transportation. Furthermore we found a decreasing settlement population density for almost all German districts regardless of population growth or shrinkage.     

Owned or rented—does it matter? Agricultural land use change within farm properties,case studies from Norway

In Norway and many other countries agriculture has moved toward less, but bigger farms. Total agricultural area has not been much affected mainly due to land tenancy. In this study we used aerial photographs to map land use and land cover in agricultural areas at present and in the mid-sixties. Three study sites were chosen, representing areas of differences with respect to drivers of change and possible differences in their landscape outcome. Maps from the two periods were used to produce transition matrices for the three areas as well as within each farm property. Our main finding on acreage change is that fully cultivated land increases and pastures decreases. A novel feature in our study is that we also include land use changes within single properties. In all three places a large share of the fully cultivated land in the sixties remains fully cultivated land irrespectively of whether the land is in use by its owner or is rented. When we looked at increases of fully cultivated land, the results are mixed. In the less favorable region, ownership to land versus rented land helps explain the variation in gain of fully cultivated land as well as maintained total agricultural area. However, in the case study from the grain region, whether a farm property today is in use as own land or rented, do not help explain the variation in changes within the data sample of farm properties larger than one hectare.