An interval fuzzy chance-constrained programming model for sustainable urban land-use planning and land use policy analysis

In this study, an interval fuzzy chance-constrained land-use allocation (IFCC-LUA) model is developed for sustainable urban land-use planning management and land use policy analysis under uncertainty. This method is based on an integration of interval parameter programming (IPP), fuzzy flexible linear programming (FFLP) and chance-constrained programming (CCP) techniques. Complexities in land-use planning management system can be systematically reflected, thus applicability of the modeling process can be highly enhanced. The developed method is applied to planning land-use allocation practice in Nanjing city, China. The objective of the IFCC-LUA is maximizing net benefit from LUA system and the main constraints include investment constraints, land suitability constraints, water/power consumption constraints and wastewater/solid waste capacity constraints. Modeling results indicate that desired system benefit will be between [1.34, 1.74] × 10¹² yuan under the minimum violating probabilities; the optimized areas of commercial land, industrial land, agricultural land, transportation land, residential land, water land, green land, landfill land and unused land will be [290, 393] hm², [176, 238] hm², [3245, 4390] hm², [126, 170] hm², [49, 66] hm², [1241, 1679] hm², [102, 138] hm², [7, 10] hm² and [178, 241] hm². They can be used for generating decision alternatives and thus help decision makers identify desired land use policies under various system-reliability constraints of economic development requirement and environmental capacity of pollutant. Tradeoffs between system benefits and constraint violation risks can also be tackled.     

Public policies can reduce tropical deforestation: Lessons and challenges from Brazil

Reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation now constitutes an important strategy for mitigating climate change, particularly in developing countries with large forests. Given growing concerns about global climate change, it is all the more important to identify cases in which economic growth has not sparked excessive forest clearance. We address the recent reduction of deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon by conducting a statistical analysis to ascertain if different levels of environmental enforcement between two groups of municipalities had any impact on this reduction. Our analysis shows that these targeted, heightened enforcement efforts avoided as much as 10,653 km² of deforestation, which translates into 1.44 × 10⁻¹ Pg C in avoided emissions for the 3 y period. Moreover, most of the carbon loss and land conversion would have occurred at the expense of closed moist forests. Although such results are encouraging, we caution that significant challenges remain for Brazil's continued success in this regard, given recent changes in the forestry code, ongoing massive investments in hydro power generation, reductions of established protected areas, and growing demand for agricultural products.     

Forest fragmentation reduced carbon storage in a moist tropical forest in Bangladesh: Implications for policy development

Forest fragmentation is continued to be widespread in the tropics resulting in reduced ecosystem services including carbon storage. However, the effect of forest fragmentation is not considered in the current carbon policy. We investigated the effect of forest fragmentation on tree biomass carbon and soil organic carbon (SOC) storage in a moist tropical forest in Bangladesh. Above and below-ground tree biomass carbon were calculated by using widely accepted allometric equations and SOC was measured by sampling soils up to 10 cm depth and analyzing them in a soil laboratory. Results showed that carbon storage in tree biomass was significantly lower in fragmented forests (16.3 ± 1.37 t C ha⁻¹) than in contiguous forests (31.21 ± 2.75 t C ha⁻¹) (p < 0.001). Likewise, a significantly lower SOC was contained in the soils of fragmented forests (17.26 ± 0.83 t C ha⁻¹) than in contiguous forests (21.62 ± 0.78 t C ha⁻¹) (p < 0.001). Thus a total of 36% less carbon retained in tree biomass and soils in fragmented forests than in contiguous forests. Backward multiple linear regression analysis revealed tree density, tree height, tree DBH, height-diameter ratio (H/D) and tree species richness as influential factors of carbon variation in fragmented forests. All these structural parameters except tree species richness were significantly lower in fragmented forests, were positively associated with carbon storage and explained together 69% of the carbon storage variation. These findings suggest that the altered stand structure and tree allometry likely caused reduced carbon storage in fragmented forests and highlight the importance of landscape scale management intervention in the tropics. Here, we provided with the evidence of strong negative impact of forest fragmentation on carbon storage and argue that this effect should be in consideration which is currently overlooked in existing carbon accounting systems for tropical forests.     

A legal framework with scientific basis for applying the ‘polluter pays principle’ to soil conservation in rural watersheds in Brazil

The “polluter pays principle” (PPP) has been looked at from the perspective of legal values and technical principles, namely of soil science, to evaluate the acceleration of soil erosion and the consequent development of degraded areas in the Uberaba River basin (area: 2419 km²), state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Having accomplished this goal, the study highlights the importance of PPP for the conservation of soil and development of an ecologically equilibrated environment. The diagnosis of degraded areas was based on the coupling of a Geographic Information System with soil loss, land use conflict and tolerance to soil loss models, and revealed a preoccupying situation because an extension of approximately 905 km² (1/3 of the basin) has been considered in advanced state of degradation potentially causing environmental damage (e.g., decline of soil fertility and hence crop production, negative impacts of soil particles export on stream and lake water quality and biodiversity of riverine ecosystems). Facing this problem, a legal framework standing on doctrinaire principles, federal laws and the Brazilian Constitution has been proposed whereby the protagonists of soil degradation are called to assume responsibility as well as the costs of repairing this negative condition. Although the study has been carried out on a specific country under pre-defined settings, the rationale behind the proposals can easily be transposed to other scenarios because the scientific methods on which soil degradation has been defined and mapped are generally applicable, while the suggested legal values are currently applied to many regions on the planet.     

Managing tropical wetlands for advancing global rice production: Implications for land-use management

Being fertile lands, wetlands have been managed for traditional agriculture over millennia. However, the integrity and ecosystem services of wetlands are being jeopardized by intensive land-use comprising of drainage and excessive disturbance. An adhoc and intensive use of wetlands, without preserving ecological integrity is causing ecosystem disservices and threatening conversion of a large soil organic carbon (SOC) sink into a net source. Wetlands in the tropical parts of the world are distributed unevenly and represent ∼3% of the total world land area. Due to stagnancy and even reduction in rice (Oryza sativa) yield of many agricultural regions, there is a need for additional and alternative land-uses which can raise the global rice production to ∼1 billion Mg (megagram = 10⁶g = metric ton) by 2050 from ∼497 million Mg now. Wetlands can be a viable option to advance global food security because of high soil fertility and vast geographical distribution. A ‘3-tier rice production system’ is proposed herein based on specific hydrological niche to advance global food security without degrading the ecosystem services of wetlands. In addition to increasing agronomic yield, the proposed modus operandi can also improve the livelihood security of farmers through an additional income streams by: (i) trading of SOC credits generated through adoption of conservation agriculture in littoral zones, and (ii) promoting fish and duckery culture in conjunction with deepwater rice farming. Furthermore, the proposed strategies will also set in motion the process of restoration of wetlands while enhancing C sink capacity of the ecosystems.     

The drivers of sugarcane expansion in Goiás,Brazil

Between 2003 and 2013, sugarcane area expanded six-fold, from 142,000 ha to 847,000 ha, in Goiás State and the Federal District, Brazil. And while there has been much research on land-use dynamics of sugarcane expansion in established sugarcane growing regions, little is known about the dynamics associated with its expansion in sugarcane frontiers like Goiás. Understanding these dynamics provides critical information for environmental, economic, and political decisions. Here, we investigate the agricultural land-use change dynamics associated with sugarcane production in Goiás and interrogate the relationship between biophysical, institutional, and logistical factors associated with sugarcane expansion. Our results demonstrate that pasture is seven times more likely to be converted to sugarcane than soy, and most new sugarcane area was not sourced in native Cerrado vegetation. Although there exist few biophysical limitations to sugarcane expansion, capital, infrastructure, and institutions constrain production. Lastly, we show that areas where soy is currently cultivated may be converted to sugarcane in the future given the expansion of transportation and sugarcane infrastructure. Thus, we suggest incentivizing the cultivation of sugarcane on degraded pastures and supporting increased pasture stocking rates to ensure continued protection of both natural vegetation and food production while supporting the expansion of sugarcane in the state.     

Carbon storage in a bamboo (Bambusa vulgaris) plantation in the degraded tropical forests: Implications for policy development

Tropical forests potentially contribute to global climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration, hence a global carbon pool. In order to mitigate the global climate change impact, the Kyoto protocol developed the clean development mechanism (CDM) which supports carbon credits for plantation activities in developing countries. Unfortunately, none of the CDM forestry projects included bamboo as a carbon reservoir. Although bamboo is an integrating part of tropical forest ecosystems, it was overlooked in the initial negotiating process. The present study, therefore, investigated the carbon storage potential of a common bamboo species, Bambusa vulgaris at Lawachara forest reserve of Bangladesh. Results showed that five-year-old B. vulgaris stand stored in total 77.67 t C ha⁻¹ of which 50.44 t C ha⁻¹ were stored in the above ground biomass (culms, branches and leaves), 2.52 t C ha⁻¹ in the below ground biomass and 24.71 t C ha⁻¹ in the soils. This amount of carbon storage is much more promising than the carbon storage of many other tree species considered in the CDM projects. These findings demonstrate the potential of B. vulgaris to be considered in CDM projects as a plantation species and thereby mitigate climate change impact more efficiently.     

Network analysis to support environmental resources management. A case study in the Cerrado,Brazil

The study examines citizens’ opinions about one crucial factor: the fire that affects the Brazilian savannah “Cerrado”. The paper aims at introducing a new tool that facilitates the assessment of people’s behaviour in order to support practitioners and decision makers to develop management strategies that fostering the environmental conservation, economic growth and human wellbeing.The study applies the network analysis in order to analyse the citizens’ opinions about causes of fire ignition and suppression activities for firefighting evoked by local inhabitants during the face-to-face interviews.The main finding carried out in this work is the usefulness of a cognitive map for synthesising a variety of people’s beliefs. Furthermore, the study reveals the general lack of awareness among people concerning fire use and management and the careless use of fire in rural activities. The chi-square test reveals that natural and physical dimensions affect society’s beliefs with statistical significance p < 0.001.     

Interventions to better manage the carbon stocks in Australian Melaleuca forests

Forests and woodlands dominated by tree species of the genus Melaleuca cover around 7,556,000 ha in Australia and predominantly occur as wetland ecosystems. In this Viewpoint, we use published secondary data to estimate that there is likely to be between 158 tC/ha and 286 tC/ha stored in Melaleuca forests. These estimates are at least five times greater than the previous estimate made by the Australian Government (about 27.8 tC/ha). There are 2.1 million ha of protected Melaleuca forest which likely stock between 328 M tC and 601 M tC; equivalent to between 2.7% and 5.0% of total carbon storage of all Australian native forests. These estimates are significant because it appears that carbon stocks in Melaleuca forests are currently dramatically under-estimated in Australia's national greenhouse gas emissions inventory reported under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Whilst the precision of the estimates is limited by the availability of rigorous primary data, we also argue that the estimates are indicative and meaningful, and this synopsis highlights the fact that this forest type should be considered a significant carbon store nationally and globally.     

Ethanol expansion and indirect land use change in Brazil

In this paper we analyze the indirect land use change (ILUC) effects of ethanol production expansion in Brazil through the use of an inter-regional, bottom-up, dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated with the 2005 Brazilian I-O table. A new methodology to deal with ILUC effects is developed, using a transition matrix of land uses calibrated with Agricultural Censuses data. Agriculture and land use are modeled separately in each of 15 Brazilian regions with different agricultural mix. This regional detail captures a good deal of the differences in soil, climate and history that cause particular land to be used for particular purposes.Brazilian land area data distinguish three broad types of agricultural land use, Crop, Pasture, and Plantation Forestry. Between one year and the next the model allows land to move between those categories, or for unused land to convert to one of these three, driven initially by the transition matrix, changing land supply for agriculture between years. The transition matrix shows Markov probabilities that a particular hectare of land used in one year for some use would be in another use next period. These probabilities are modified endogenously in the model according to the average unit rentals of each land type in each region.We ask whether biofuel expansion is consistent with new laws, limiting forest clearing in Brazil. A simulation with ethanol expansion scenario is performed for year 2020, in which land supply is allowed to increase only in states located on the agricultural frontier. Results suggest that each new hectare of sugar cane requires only 0.14 ha of new land, with another 0.47 ha converted from pasture use. Hence policies limiting deforestation are unlikely to prevent greater ethanol production. Finally, regional differences in sugarcane productivity are found to be important elements in ILUC effects of sugar cane expansion.     

The potential and cost of increasing forest carbon sequestration in Sweden

This paper examines the potential and the cost of promoting forest carbon sequestration through a tax/subsidy to land owners for reducing/increasing carbon storage in their forests. We use a partial equilibrium model based on intertemporal optimization to estimate the impacts of carbon price (the tax/subsidy rate) on timber harvest volume and price in different time periods and on the change of forest carbon stock over time. The results show that a higher carbon price would lead to higher forest carbon stocks. The tax/subsidy induced annual net carbon sequestration is declining over time. The net carbon sequestration during 2015–2050 would increase by 30.2 to 218.3 million tonnes of CO₂, when carbon price increases from 170 SEK to 1428 SEK per tonne of CO₂. The associated cost, in terms of reduced total benefits of timber and other non-timber goods, ranges from 80 SEK to 105.8 SEK per tonne of CO₂. The change in carbon sequestration (as compared with the baseline case) beyond 2050 is small when carbon price is 680 SEK per tonne of CO₂ or lower. With a carbon price of 1428 SEK per tonne of CO₂, carbon sequestration will increase by 70 million tonnes of CO₂ from the baseline level during 2050-2070, and by 64 million tonnes during 2070–2170.     

Landowner net benefit from Stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) afforestation of dry-land cereal fields in Valladolid,Spain

This analysis measures the net benefit that a landowner could obtain from changing current dry-land cereal fields into Stone pine plantations in Portillo and Viana (Valladolid, Spain). We apply cost–benefit analysis techniques to estimate the present value of Stone pine afforestation net benefit by considering an infinite series of forestry rotations. We simulate three Stone pine silviculture models at each of the two sites. In addition, we estimate landowner extended net benefits from Stone pine afforestation when we consider a hypothetical payment for the carbon sequestration service. Results show that, when government subsidies are included, Stone pine afforestation only offers positive landowner net benefit in Portillo when both medium and high-stocking silviculture models are applied. Taking into account carbon prices up to €45 tC^?1 (€12.3 tCO₂^?1), Stone pine afforestation gives landowner positive extended net benefits for the three silviculture models simulated at the Portillo and Viana sites.     

Assessing the efficiency of switchgrass different cultural practices for pellet production

Switchgrass is a perennial crop producing high amounts of biomass for good quality pellet production. The objective of this study is to examine the efficiency of different cultural practices of switchgrass for pellet production under field conditions for four different N-fertilization (0, 80, 160 and 240 kg ha⁻¹) and two different irrigation levels (0 and 250 mm), in two soils in central Greece with rather different moisture status over the period 2009–2012. Moreover, comparison between three harvest methods (two different types of bales and silage) was made. The results derived from this study revealed that the bale at 22 kg is the harvesting practice with the highest costs while there was reduction of efficiency scores when nitrogen levels increased. At both environments the efficiency scores followed the same trend, confirming that low levels of nitrogen fertilization enhance the economic competitiveness of switchgrass production. Palamas site is the area where switchgrass for pellet production had positive income ranging from 400 to 1600 € ha⁻¹, while Velestino site had always negative. Therefore, places like Velestino with non-aquic soil should be avoided for switchgrass. These data suggest that growing switchgrass for solid biofuel production as energy crop is a worthwhile decision only in areas with a moderately shallow groundwater table (aquic soil) or maybe in high precipitation regions.     

Local ecological knowledge reveals effects of policy-driven land use and cover change on beekeepers in Costa Rica

Land use and cover (LUC) change is a major driver of ecosystem service loss worldwide. In response, policymakers have designed conservation strategies that incentivize the establishment and maintenance of LUC types associated with higher ecosystem service provision. Many of these policies also aim to promote social and economic goals such as reducing poverty. Attempts to measure the impact of policy-driven LUC change on stakeholders typically focus only on economic outcomes for landowning participants or aggregate the socio-economic outcomes of diverse groups. In this study, we applied local ecological knowledge (LEK) held by beekeepers in Costa Rica to understand the impact of policy-driven LUC change on this specific group of often non-landowning stakeholders. Beekeeping is a globally important rural livelihood and provides pollination services to crops and wild plants. We synthesized beekeeper LEK using a mixed-methods approach including apiary mapping exercises (n = 215 apiaries), questionnaires (n = 50 participants), and follow-up interviews (n = 21 participants). Our study revealed that some policy-driven LUC changes have limited beekeepers’ access to preferred land uses, such as secondary and mature forests with native trees. Participants reported concern for their livelihoods due to policy-driven spatial and temporal change of floral resources via the establishment of tree plantations, changes in pasture management, and laws that prohibit beekeeping in national parks and reserves. Our study provides evidence of unintended outcomes from land use policies, including Payment for Ecosystem Services, with disproportionate negative impacts on non-landowning residents who depend on natural resources in the landscape for their livelihoods. Our study illustrates potential inequality rising from current incentive mechanisms associated with Payments for Ecosystem Services and other conservation policies and calls for policymakers to consider LUC change impacts on non-landowning stakeholders.     

Assessing costs and benefits of pest management on forested landbases in eastern and western Canada

To assist pest management planning, the Canadian Forest Service developed the Spruce Budworm Decision Support System (SBW DSS), which quantifies the timber supply impacts of protecting stands against spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) defoliation. We incorporated protection costs and timber product values in this system to evaluate economic aspects of spruce budworm control. The analysis allows pest managers to evaluate the degree to which the traditional volume protection priority objective corresponds to three economic criteria, namely the volume protected per dollar protection program cost, the benefit–cost ratio of the protection program, and the net present value of the protection program. Twelve alternative spruce budworm protection strategies were analyzed on Crown License 1 in New Brunswick and Prince Albert Forest Management Area (PAFMA) in Saskatchewan, based on a number of protection program extents and intensities. For both landbases under base-case market conditions, the largest, most intensive protection scenario provided the highest amount of volume saved and net present value (at 3.94 Mm³ and $39.98 M for PAFMA, and 4.04 Mm³ and $41.49 M for License 1, respectively) while smaller, less-intensive programs provided the highest benefit–cost ratios and volume protected per present value dollar of protection cost (at 8.22 and 0.52 m³/$ for PAFMA, and 10.26 and 0.65 m³/$ for License 1, respectively). Sensitivity analysis on product values and protection costs revealed that smaller, less-intensive programs could also produce the highest net present values when costs are higher and/or product values lower. These results highlight the conditions under which pest managers should consider deviating from their traditional strategy of maximizing volume saved to one that maximizes the economic returns of protection.     

Trends in land ownership fragmentation during the last 230 years in Czechia,and a projection of future developments

A high level of fragmentation of farmland ownership is an important underlying cause of land degradation and, at the same time, an obstacle to sustainable land management. This study makes the first-ever analysis of long-term trends in the rate of fragmentation. Our study covers the period from the earliest stages of the current form of ownership patterns at the end of the 18th century until the present day. On the basis of significant predictors that have been identified (initial fragmentation, population growth, historical development of inheritance laws and of the land market, natural soil fertility and landscape type), we go on to project probable developments for the period from 2016 to 2045. A total of 102,984 land parcels in 56 cadastral units in the territory of Czechia have been analysed on the basis of data from four years (1785, 1840, 1950, 2015). Our study considers the development of two basic indicators of fragmentation – Mean Parcel Size and Number of Owners per 100 ha. The Mean Parcel Size has decreased over a period of 230 years from 1.08 ha to 0.64 ha, at a mean rate of −0.26% year⁻¹. During the same period, the Number of Owners per 100 ha has risen from 17.50 to 79.66, at a mean rate of 0.61% year⁻¹. A detailed analysis of the development trends confirms significant spatial variability and also time variability of the rates of the two indicators. The analysis also shows their mutual complementarity: growth in the rate of one of the indicators is usually accompanied by a drop in the other. The general trend that we project for the territory of Czechia in the upcoming 30 years is that there will be further diminution of the physical size of land parcels (continuing fragmentation of land parcels) accompanied by a reduction in the Number of Owners (defragmentation of land ownership).     

A dividing issue: Attitudes to the shooting of rear and release birds among landowners,hunters and the general public in Denmark

Why are organised shoots involving birds that are farm-reared and subsequently released a dividing issue in several countries? As a contribution to answering this question the paper reports a national survey of landowners (n = 1207), hunters (n = 1130) and the general public (n = 1001) in Denmark. While there was broad agreement across all three groups that recreational hunting of naturally occurring “surplus” wildlife is acceptable, the release of farm-reared game birds for shooting was a dividing issue, both within the groups and between them. The majority of participants (51%) in the survey representing the general public were against the practice; a majority of hunters (61%) were in favour of it; and landowner approval rates lay between these two poles. Respondents with a “mutualist” or “distanced” wildlife value orientation according to the definitions by Teel et al. (2005) consistently displayed a more negative attitude to rear and release shooting than those with a “utilitarian” orientation. The differences in attitude could not be explained in terms solely of underlying concerns about nature conservation and biodiversity protection. Concerns about the behaviour of the released birds, and about hunting “culture” and regulatory measures, also informed the participants’ attitudes. The regulatory framework governing shooting based on the release of farm-reared birds could reflect a wider range of concerns than those hitherto acknowledged.     

A DEA approach to assess the efficiency of radiata pine logs to produce New Zealand structural grades

An efficiency analysis revealed the relative magnitude of wood traits that distinguishes efficient radiata pine logs to produce New Zealand structural grades. Technical and cost efficiencies were obtained by using data envelopment analysis (DEA). Wood trait prices used to perform the cost efficiency corresponded to economic weights derived from a partial regression. These values were 1.1, 29.7, 0.3 and ?0.4 NZ $/m³ for small end diameter (cm), stiffness (GPa), basic density (kg/m³) and largest branch (mm) respectively. The most efficient logs were those with the highest difference between recovery value and price. There were positive and significant correlations between technical efficiency and wood stiffness (0.46, p < 0.05) and between cost efficiency and log recovery value (0.85, p < 0.05). The most efficient logs had a ratio of 1:4 between stiffness and small end diameter whereas logs that did not generate structural lumber presented ratios close to 1:8. This information will inform the development of breeding objectives, and help segregating and pricing logs by using traits patterns that result in efficient logs for the production of structural wood.     

Indonesia's moratorium on new forest licenses: An update

In 2011 Indonesia decreed a moratorium on forest licenses over 69 million hectares (Mha) in order to suspend haphazard forest exploitation. However, only ∼12–22 Mha were actually afforded new protection from licensing. Herein I observe a further 5.5 Mha of moratorium area overlapping forest licenses and therefore subject to excisement from the moratorium. These 5.5 Mha, like the 4.5 Mha excised from the moratorium to date, are not readily explicable outside of small government committees. This highlights the quasi-transparency of the mapping process: the moratorium map is widely disseminated, yet its base data and decisions made on their basis are guarded. Implementing ministries seek to comply with reforms while simultaneously protecting their administrations from upset – an ultimately compromised position with tangible implications. This has undermined acceptance by the inherently sceptical Indonesian conservation community; yet its highly critical ‘watch dog’ role has ironically contributed by heightening government wariness. The way out of this dynamic is for the ministries to render all data public and, critically, be prepared to weather the inevitable wave of data-fuelled attack for the public good.     

Economic impacts of adjacency and green-up constraints on timber production at a landscape scale

Although many different forest certification standards exist, harvest adjacency and green-up regulations are common to most certifying bodies. This study develops a means for evaluating trade-offs associated with implementation of nth-order adjacency and green-up constraints on a 1.7 million ha landscape in Oregon in the US. Depending on the type of adjacency structure and delay between harvests, the opportunity cost of the restrictions, estimated by the change in discounted sum of producer and consumer surplus in the regional log market, ranged from 0.25% to 66% (or US $60 million to $15.3 billion) of the unconstrained value. Increasing green-up delays beyond 30–40 years had little effect on estimated opportunity cost of the modeled restrictions.