House price appreciation, liquidity constraints, and second mortgages

This paper analyzes how households use second mortgages in response to shocks to housing wealth. Two related questions are examined: Do households use home equity in response to house price appreciation? Are liquidity constraints important for homeowners? A theoretical model shows that liquidity-constrained households respond more strongly to house price changes than unconstrained households. Using PSID, I find noteworthy differences in borrowing patterns of homeowners by the ratio of wealth to income. Low wealth-to-income homeowners exhibit a strong reaction to house price appreciation, whereas high wealth-to-income ones do not. The results indicate the importance of liquidity constraints among homeowners.     

Shared appreciation mortgages: Lessons from the UK

The recent rise in shared appreciation mortgage (SAM) availability motivates careful consideration of underlying borrower incentives. The lender’s share of appreciation in SAMs (share) is essentially a dynamic prepayment penalty imposed on the borrower. However, the borrower faces a moral hazard due to his ability to affect the penalty by reducing maintenance. We adapt a competing risks mortgage-pricing model to calculate SAM theoretical equilibrium rates. Our borrower possesses rational expectations of both the house price market and interest rates. Our simulation results may help explain the lack of secondary market interest for the UK SAMs containing extreme contract terms.     

Unemployment and liquidity constraints

We present a dynamic framework for the interaction between borrowing (liquidity) constraints and deviations of actual hours from desired hours, both measured by discrete‐valued indicators, and estimate it as a system of dynamic binary and ordered probit models with panel data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We analyze a household's propensity to be liquidity constrained by means of a dynamic binary probit model. We analyze qualitative aspects of the conditions of employment, namely whether the household head is involuntarily overemployed, voluntarily employed, or involuntarily underemployed or unemployed, by means of a dynamic ordered probit model. We focus on the possible interaction between the two types of constraints. We estimate these models jointly using maximum simulated likelihood, where we allow for individual random effects along with an autoregressive process for the general error term in each equation. A novel feature of our method is that it allows for the random effects to be correlated with regressors in a time‐invariant fashion. Our results provide strong support for the basic theory of constrained behavior and the interaction between liquidity constraints and exogenous constraints on labor supply. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Housing wealth,liquidity constraints and self-employment

This paper investigates the existence of liquidity constraints facing entrepreneurs in the United Kingdom. Using a household-level panel data set, entry to self-employment is shown to be a function of household net worth. We use inheritances and unanticipated movements in house prices as instruments for shocks to liquidity. Results indicate that inheritances are a poor instrument for liquidity constraints because both past and future inheritances predict entry to self-employment. House prices shocks are a more plausible instrument because self-employed households disproportionately re-mortgage, but our results again indicate little evidence of house price shocks unbinding liquidity constraints facing the would-be self-employed.     

Monetary policy,global liquidity and commodity price dynamics

This paper examines the interactions between money, interest rates, goods and commodity prices at a global level. Aggregated data for major OECD countries are therefore analysed in a cointegrated VAR framework. Our empirical results for the period ranging from the 1970s to 2008 support the view that, when controlling for interest rate changes and thus different monetary policy stances, money (defined as a global liquidity aggregate) is still a key factor to determine the long-run homogeneity of commodity and goods prices movements.     

Optimal consumption under uncertainty,liquidity constraints,and bounded rationality

I study how boundedly rational agents can learn a “good” solution to an infinite horizon optimal consumption problem under uncertainty and liquidity constraints. Using an empirically plausible theory of learning I propose a class of adaptive learning algorithms that agents might use to choose a consumption rule. I show that the algorithm always has a globally asymptotically stable consumption rule, which is optimal. Additionally, I present extensions of the model to finite horizon settings, where agents have finite lives and life-cycle income patterns. This provides a simple and parsimonious model of consumption for large agent based models.     

Tax asymmetry and futures hedging under liquidity constraints

This paper examines the optimal futures hedging decision of a firm facing uncertain income that is subject to asymmetric taxation with no loss‐offset provisions. All futures contracts are marked to market and require interim cash settlement of gains and losses. The firm is liquidity constrained in that it is forced to prematurely close its futures position on which the interim loss incurred exceeds a threshold level. The liquidity risk created by the interim funding requirement of a futures hedge is shown to proffer the firm perverse incentives, thereby making an under‐hedge optimal. This under‐hedging result holds irrespective of whether the firm is risk neutral or risk averse. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

House price structure and market equilibrium

After the accumulation of empirical research on house price structure that has taken place over the last decade, a theoretical framework to explain observed differences in house price structure across markets is not yet well developed. To explain house price structure a model of market equilibrium has to be formulated that allows the derivation of comparative statics results. This paper presents such an analysis in the context of momentary equilibrium, with continuous spectrums of household types and housing types.     

The regulatory tax and house price appreciation in Florida

Much attention was given to the soaring price of housing that took place in different parts of the country in the 1990s and the first half of the current decade. Traditional explanations for the increase include rising land values and costs of construction, but a strand of literature, popularized by Glaeser et al. [Glaeser, Edward L., Gyourko, Joseph, Saks, Raven, 2005a. Why have housing prices gone up? National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper #11129; Glaeser, Edward L., Gyourko, Joseph, Saks, Raven, 2005b. Why is manhattan so expensive? Regulation and the rise in housing prices. The Journal of Law and Economics 48(2)], has looked at the role of land use regulations and posits that complying with them imposes a regulatory tax on housing consumers. In this paper, we apply and extend Glaeser and Gyourko’s methodology in order to estimate the regulatory tax on an individual house level in a set of Florida metropolitan areas. Our novel data address some of the quality measurement concerns raised about the Glaeser and Gyourko methodology and allow us to look at the evolution of the regulatory tax over a 10-year period. We find that the tax is an important component of sales price and that as a percentage of sales price has increased in a majority of Florida’s MSAs. In addition, we decompose the overall house price increase into land, materials and regulatory components and find that increasing stringency in the regulatory environment within Florida represents a substantial portion of the run-up in house prices in most metropolitan areas.     

Productivity,price recovery,capacity constraints and their financial consequences

Mining and fishing are both extractive industries, although one resource is renewable and the other is not. Miners and fishers pursue financial objectives, although their objectives may differ. In both industries financial performance is influenced by productivity and prices. Finally, in both industries capacity constraints influence financial performance, perhaps but not necessarily through their impact on productivity, and both industries encounter external as well as internal capacity constraints. In this study we develop an analytical framework that links all four phenomena. We use return on assets to measure financial performance, and our analytical framework is provided by the duPont triangle. We measure productivity change in two ways, with a theoretical technology-based index and with empirical price-based indexes. We measure price change with empirical quantity-based indexes. We measure internal capacity utilization by relating a pair of output quantity vectors representing actual output and full capacity output, and we develop physical and economic measures of internal capacity utilization. We also show how external capacity constraints can restrict the ability to reach full capacity output. The analytical framework has productivity change, price change and change in capacity utilization influencing change in return on assets.     

The quality assurance role of seller financing: evidence from second mortgages

Quality problems that are known to the seller of a product, but will become known to the buyer only after the purchase have the potential to frustrate voluntary exchanges. Where the determination of quality after the sale is cut-and-dried, brand names and unconditional guarantees will bond contract performance. When the problem is more subtle or confounded by the extent of consumer inputs, requiring risk-sharing by the contracting parties, these bonding devices typically are not sufficient. Under the circumstances, seller financing may be an efficient contracting solution for bonding the quality dimension of the contract. This form of financing makes both the buyer and the seller share the risk that the product may not suit the buyer’s needs in the way promised by the seller. This paper provides further empirical evidence on the quality assurance role of seller financing. We consider seller-financed second mortgages in the National Association of Realtors database. Seller financing in second mortgages may be a supplement to first mortgages supplied by conventional lenders. The role of seller financing as a quality assurance mechanism in second mortgages is more complex than its role in first mortgages, but is also less subject to an alternative interpretation of credit rationing than is its role in seller-financed first mortgages. To avoid further complexities, we do not consider second seller financing transactions that supplement first assumption mortgage transactions.     

House price dynamics: Fundamentals and expectations

We investigate whether expectations that are not fully rational have the potential to explain the evolution of house prices and the price-to-rent ratio in the United States. First, a stylized asset-pricing model solved under rational expectations is used to derive a fundamental value for house prices and the price–rent ratio. Although the model can explain the sample average of the price–rent ratio, it does not generate the large and persistent fluctuations observed in the data. Then, we consider a rational bubble solution, an extrapolative expectations solution and a near rational bubble solution. In this last solution agents extrapolate the future from the latest realizations and the degree of extrapolation is stronger in good times than in bad times, generating waves of over-optimism. We show that under this solution the model not only is able to match key moments of the data but can also replicate the run up in the U.S. house prices observed over the 2000–2006 period and the subsequent sharp downturn.     

Estimating house price appreciation: A comparison of methods

Several parametric and nonparametric methods have been advanced over the years for estimating house price appreciation. This paper compares five of these methods in terms of predictive accuracy, using data from Montgomery County, Pennsylvania. The methods are evaluated on the basis of the mean squared prediction error and the mean absolute prediction error. A statistic developed by Diebold and Mariano is used to determine whether differences in prediction errors are statistically significant. We use the same statistic to determine the effect of sample size on the accuracy of the predictions. In general, parametric methods of estimation produce more accurate estimates of house price appreciation than nonparametric methods. And when the mean absolute prediction error is used as the criterion of accuracy, the repeat sales method produces the most accurate estimate among the parametric methods we tested. Finally, of the five methods we tested, the accuracy of the repeat sales method is least diminished by a reduction in sample size.     

Evidence of liquidity constraints found in theme park ticket auctions

Data from Internet auctions of unused tickets to Walt Disney World are used to establish the presence and financial impact of liquidity constraints for consumers, even when those consumers are confronted with a very short time horizon and a substantial potential monetary saving. Bidding for tickets is found to be consistent with the microeconomic consumer theory of risk and liquidity. The presence of liquidity premiums and premiums paid for variety in entertainment are separately established. The authors wish to thank an anonymous referee for very helpful comments and would like to acknowledge Michael Toma, Andy Weinbach, and conference participants of the Academy of Economics and Finance.     

House price depreciation rates and level of maintenance

My objective in this paper is to estimate different depreciation rates of house prices depending on the level of maintenance of the property and the location of the property. I do this by supplementing transaction price data with owner information about level of maintenance. The result indicates that the level of maintenance has a substantial impact on the price level. Since maintenance offsets some of the physical deterioration of the property, the depreciation rate will be lowered by maintenance, ceteris paribus. To be able to estimate maintenance effects on depreciation rates, I isolated the interaction effect between the level of maintenance and the age of the property to allow for the fact that maintenance has an impact on the effective age of the property. In this study, I separate maintenance into indoor and outdoor maintenance levels (or absence of maintenance).My results show that the depreciation rates are significantly different for a maintained property and for a property that is not maintained. The price difference between a 40-year-old property (built in 1960) and maintained both indoors and outdoors and a property of the same age that is not maintained is about 13% (−10% compared to −23% in total age effect). The absence of outdoor maintenance has more impact on price depreciation rates.     

住房价格指数以及区位对住房价格的影响——北京市住房价格实证分析

根据北京市的1308个新建住宅项目数据,建立了Hedonic模型,着重分析了时间、距离、环线以及行政区等变量对住房价格的影响,构建了北京市住房Hedonic价格指数和住房价格的梯度曲线.     

Subprime mortgages and the housing bubble

This paper explores the link between the house-price expectations of mortgage lenders and the extent of subprime lending. It argues that bubble conditions in the housing market are likely to spur subprime lending, with favorable price expectations easing the default concerns of lenders and thus increasing their willingness to extend loans to risky borrowers. Since the demand created by subprime lending feeds back onto house prices, such lending also helps to fuel an emerging housing bubble. These ideas are illustrated in a theoretical model, and tentative support is found in empirical work exploring the connection between price expectations and the extent of subprime lending.     

House price risk and the hedging benefits of home ownership

Using a repeat-sales methodology, this paper finds that estimates of house price risk based on aggregate house price indices substantially underestimate the true size of house price risk. This is the result of the fact that aggregate house price indices average away the idiosyncratic volatility in house prices. Additional results show that the idiosyncratic risk exceeds the hedging benefits of home ownership. These results imply that for many home owners, owning a house may well add more price risk than it hedges away. These findings are based on a detailed dataset of individual housing transactions in the Netherlands.     

House price convergence in euro zone and non-euro zone countries

This study investigates whether single currency use increased house price convergence among various countries. First, the panel unit root test results indicate that the house prices in euro zone countries were more correlated than the house prices in non-euro zone countries. Second, the house prices in various European countries converged towards the house prices in Germany, which uses the single currency, rather than towards those in the United Kingdom, indicating that single currency use increased the influence of the German housing market on other markets. Finally, the log t regression model, a new convergence test, was employed and determined that the house prices in various European countries were not converging before 1992 but began to do so after that year. After the euro was implemented as an official currency, the house prices in various countries converged towards a consistent level. On the basis of the relative transition paths, this study determines that the differences among housing markets in various countries have continuously decreased since 1992. The empirical results indicate that the law of one price is applicable to tradable goods and that single currency use can integrate housing markets, which include non-tradable goods.     

Securitization, liquidity, and the Brady plan

Securitization of bank loans is proposed as a solution to the ongoing debt difficulties for emerging market nations. This paper analyzes the effects of the Brady plan for four participating countries. In addition to resolving repayment problems, the plan had a statistically significant effect on prices due to its positive impact on liquidity. Previously, the market for traded bank debt was illiquid and dominated by a few large traders who depressed the price by exerting oligopsony power. By using Perron’s method of discerning breaks, it is found that the introduction of bonds led to structural change in the LDC secondary debt market. These effects are in addition to those of debt resolution and domestic reform.