Currency Hedging Using the Mean-Gini Framework

The mean-Gini framework has been suggested as a robust alternative to the portfolio approach to futures hedging given its optimality under general distributional conditions. However, calculation of the Gini hedge ratio requires estimation of the underlying price distribution. We estimate minimum-Gini hedge ratios using two widely-used estimation procedures, the empirical distribution function method and the kernel method, for three emerging market and three developed market currencies. We find that these methods yield different Gini hedge ratios. These differences increase with risk aversion and are statistically significant for all developed market currencies but only one emerging market currency. In-sample analyses show that the empirical distribution function method is more effective at risk reduction than the kernel method for developed market currencies, whereas the kernel method is superior for emerging market currencies. Post-sample analyses strengthen the superiority of the empirical distribution function method for developed market and, in several cases, for emerging market currencies.JEL Classification: F31, G15     

Arbitrage and Viability in Insurance Markets

Insurance markets are subject to transaction costs and constraints on portfolio holdings. Therefore, unlike the frictionless asset markets case, viability is not equivalent to absence of arbitrage possibilities. We use the concept of unbounded arbitrage to characterize viable prices on a complete and an incomplete insurance market. In the complete market, there is an insurance contract for every possible event. In the incomplete market, risk can be insured through proportional and excess of loss like insurance contracts. We show how the the structure of viable prices is affected by the portfolio constraints, the transaction costs, and the structure of marketed contracts.     

Why Do Firms Raise Foreign Currency Denominated Debt? Evidence from Finland

This study examines the determinants of the decision to raise currency debt. The results suggest that hedging figures importantly in the currency–of–denomination decision: firms in which exports constitute a significant fraction of net sales are more likely to raise currency debt. However, firms also tend to borrow in periods when the nominal interest rate for the loan currency, relative to other currencies, is lower than usual. This is consistent with the currency debt issue decision being affected by speculative motives. Large firms, with a wider access to the international capital markets, are more likely to borrow in foreign currencies than small firms.     

The International Transmission of Arbitrage Information Across Futures Markets

Abstract:   This paper examines whether deviations from a domestic spot‐futures relation, as identified through mispricing series in stock index futures, spillover international boundaries. Such spillovers suggest that information from a mispricing series in one market conveys a signal of similar mispricing in another market. In the presence of arbitrage traders and in the absence of market frictions, mispricing series should be independent across international boundaries. The study employs a VAR analysis of stock index futures mispricing across three large futures markets – Australia, the UK and the USA. Using time zone differences, tests are conducted for the daily transmission of arbitrage information. The results reveal the relationship between mispricing series is bi‐directional. Based on this finding, a trading strategy is employed to examine the economic significance of apparent profits. The results show that some profits are possible after transaction costs but that a long horizon, probably beyond the scope of most traders, is required to exploit the spillover information.     

Short Selling and Index Arbitrage Profitability: Evidence from the SGX MSCI and TAIFEX Taiwan Index Futures Markets

There are numerous impediments to market efficiency and index arbitrage in real capital markets, including the uptick rule on short selling, execution risk, market impact costs, regulatory barriers, and capital constraints. Adopting and relaxing the uptick restriction in the Taiwan stock market facilitated a study on whether adjustments in this restriction influence the efficiency and arbitrage of the Singapore Exchange Limited (SGX) and the Taiwan Futures Exchange (TAIFEX) index futures markets. This study examines the above issues using five-minute intraday transaction data and performs an ex post test of arbitrage, ex ante test of arbitrage, and regression analysis. Empirical results indicate that relaxing the uptick rule should improve market efficiency and facilitate long arbitrage, subsequently accelerating the adjustment to no-arbitrage bounds and helping to decrease ex post and ex ante mispricing and underpricing following the relaxation.     

Arbitrage risk and market efficiency

This article explores arbitràge risk and models a testable hypothesis for studies in the treasury bill futures market efficiency. The modern mean-variance theory applied to a hedged arbitrage portfolio is used for the analysis. For a given expected arbitrage profit, we derive minimum variance arbitrage (MVA) conditions. A minimum variance arbitrage line (MVAL) is then derived to show the risk-return tradeoff for arbitrage. Market efficiency conditions are discussed by taking into account arbitrage risk along with bid-ask spreads. The analysis in this study helps explain the puzzle of inefficiencies in the T-bill futures market. Because refinancing and variation margin (due to marking-to-market) are required for arbitrage using futures trading in general, our ex ante arbitrage model using the case of T-bill futures can be applied to other futures markets.     

贷款证券化、监管资本套利与资本监管改进

巴塞尔协议的资本充足率指标可以反映银行部门吸收风险损失的能力,但是无法监测和控制银行体系外的贷款总额和累积的信用风险。20世纪70年代的贷款证券化创新导致银行进行监管资本套利,并使得资本充足率监管趋于失效。本文基于贷款证券化下银行贷款余额与社会贷款余额的差异,分析银行监管资本套利的微观机制并提出改进资本监管的建议。     

Convertible Bond Arbitrage: Risk and Return

Abstract:  This paper specifies a simulated convertible bond arbitrage portfolio to characterise the risks in convertible bond arbitrage. For comparison the risk profile of convertible bond arbitrage hedge fund indices at both monthly and daily frequencies is also examined. Results indicate that convertible bond arbitrage is positively related to default and term structure risk factors. These risk factors are augmented with the simulated convertible bond arbitrage portfolio, mimicking a passive investment in convertible bond arbitrage, to assess the risk and return of individual hedge funds. We provide estimates of the performance of two hedge fund indices (an equally weighted and value weighted index) and a sample of convertible bond arbitrage hedge funds using a factor model methodology. Lagged and contemporaneous observations of the risk factors are specified, controlling for illiquidity in the securities held by funds. Our results cover two time periods. Initially we find evidence of abnormal risk adjusted returns in the individual hedge fund data and the equally weighted hedge fund index and no evidence of abnormal risk adjusted returns in the value weighted hedge fund index. When we examine performance during the credit crisis of 2007 and 2008 we find evidence of negative abnormal returns amongst individual hedge funds and the hedge fund indices.     

Managerial Ownership and Corporate Hedging

Abstract:  Using information on 443 UK non-financial companies, this work provides evidence supporting the hypothesis that managerial risk aversion is an incentive to deviate from the optimal hedging position. Conflicts of interest between shareholders and managers are at the centre of the decision about the firm's risk profile but are not relevant as determinants of the decision to hedge. This is rather associated with factors enhancing the firm's expected value (underinvestment, scale economies, tax savings).     

Hedging Housing Risk in London

This paper investigates the benefits of allowing households to compensate the portfolio distortion due to their housing consumption through investments in housing price derivatives. Focusing on the London market, we show that a major loss from over-investment in housing is that households are forced to hold a very risky portfolio. However, the strong performance of the London housing market means that little is lost in terms of expected returns. Even households with limited wealth are better off owning their home rather than renting and investing in financial assets, as long as they are willing to face the financial risk involved. In this context, access to housing price derivatives would benefit most poor homeowners looking to limit their risk exposure. It would also benefit wealthier investors looking for the high returns provided by housing investments without the costs of direct ownership of properties. Comparisons with French, Swedish and U.S. data provide a broader perspective on our findings.     

Arbitrage Bounds and UK Unit Trust Performance

Abstract:  We use the arbitrage performance bounds of Ahn, Cao and Chretien (2003) to evaluate UK unit trust performance between January 1988 and December 2002. We find that trust performance is sensitive to the admissible stochastic discount factor used for both the average trust and the majority of individual trusts. The investment style, size, load charge, and annual charge of the trust all have an impact on trust performance. We find for some trusts, the Jensen (1968) and Ferson and Schadt (1996) measures do not satisfy arbitrage bounds by the base assets.     

Financial Leverage,CEO Compensation,and Corporate Hedging: Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts

This paper studies the determinants of corporate hedging practices in the REIT industry between 1999 and 2001. We find a positive significant relation between hedging and financial leverage, indicating the financial distress costs motive for using derivatives in the REIT industry. Using estimates of the Black–Scholes sensitivity of CEO’s stock option portfolios to stock return volatility and the sensitivity of CEO’s stock and stock option portfolios to stock price, we find evidence to support managerial risk aversion motive for corporate hedging in the REIT industry. Our results indicate that CEO’s cash compensation and the CEO’s wealth sensitivity to stock return volatility are significant determinants of derivative use in REITs. We also document a significant positive relation between institutional ownership and hedging activity. Further, we find that probability of hedging is related to economies of scale in hedging costs.

Losing Money on Arbitrage: Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Choice in Markets with Arbitrage Opportunities

We derive the optimal investment policy of a risk-averse investorin a market where there is a textbook arbitrage opportunity,but where liabilities must be secured by collateral. We findthat it is often optimal to underinvest in the arbitrage bytaking a smaller position than collateral constraints allow.Even when the optimal policy is followed, the arbitrage portfoliotypically experiences losses before the final convergence date.In fact, its initial performance may be indistinguishable fromthat of a conventional portfolio with a poor track record. Theseresults have important implications for the role of arbitrageursin financial markets.     

政策套利与规则优化：外商融资租赁井喷增长

当前境内外利差、汇差的存在使得企业境内外融资成本存在较大差异,促使境内企业更多倾向于境外融资,外资融资租赁公司成为境内企业境外筹集资金的重要桥梁。近年来,外商投资融资租赁快速发展,银行、融资租赁公司合作在缓解境内企业融资难的同时,也对跨境收支带来一定冲击,政策管理上的宽松还可能诱发其监管套利,因此,在鼓励其发展的同时还需要进一步加强引导和规范。     

Emerging Derivatives Markets: The Case of Chile

We compare the performance of firms affiliated with diversified business groups with the performance of unaffiliated firms in Turkey, an emerging market. We address the question of whether group-affiliated firms create internal capital markets or control large cash flows. Our findings indicate that group affiliation improves a firm's accounting performance, but not stock market performance. Deviation of cash-flow rights from voting rights has a negative but insignificant effect on accounting performance, but a significant effect on market performance. We also find that a firm's accounting, but not stock market, performance increases with the level of group diversification. Our results show that internal capital markets play an important role for the existence of business groups in an emerging market context.     

Liquidity and Arbitrage in Options Markets: A Survival Analysis Approach

This paper examines the determinants of the time it takes foran index options market to return to no arbitrage values afterput-call parity deviations, using intraday transactions datafrom the French index options market. We employ survival analysisto characterize how limits to arbitrage influence the expectedduration of arbitrage deviations. After controlling for conventionallimits to arbitrage, we show that liquidity-linked variablesare associated with a faster reversion of arbitrage profits.The introduction of an Exchange Traded Fund also affects thesurvival rates of deviations, but this impact essentially stemsfrom the reduction in the level of potential arbitrage profits.     

Determination of Optimal Hedging Strategy for Index Futures: Evidence from Turkey

This paper aims to determine optimal hedge strategy for the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE)-30 stock index futures in Turkey by comparing hedging performance of constant and time-varying hedge ratios under mean-variance utility criteria. We employ standard regression and bivariate GARCH frameworks to estimate constant and time-varying hedge ratios respectively. The Turkish case is particularly challenging since Turkey has one of the most volatile stock markets among emerging economies and the turnover ratio as a measure of liquidity is very high for the market. These facts can be considered to highlight the great risk and, therefore, the extra need for hedging in the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE). The empirical results from the study reveal that the dynamic hedge strategy outperforms the static and the traditional strategies.