金融危机背景下的保护主义:现实与挑战

面对此次国际金融危机的挑战,各国政府都采取了凯恩斯主义的积极干预经济的政策,大幅减税、增加财政支出及放松银根以刺激经济,但目前政策的实际效果尚未明显体现.在此背景下,部分国家为了使自己尽快摆脱危机,提出了一些有明显保护主义倾向的方案,与西方国家一直积极倡导的自由市场经济背道而驰.本文对近期国际社会保护主义重新抬头的趋势、支持保护主义的学术观点及其影响等问题进行简要分析,并提出对策建议.     

金融危机背景下的保护主义:现实与挑战

面对此次国际金融危机的挑战,各国政府都采取了凯恩斯主义的积极干预经济的政策,大幅减税、增加财政支出及放松银根以刺激经济,但目前政策的实际效果尚未明显体现。在此背景下,部分国家为了使自己尽快摆脱危机,提出了一些有明显保护主义倾向的方案,与西方国家一直积极倡导的自由市场经济背道而驰。本文对近期国际社会保护主义重新抬头的趋势、支持保护主义的学术观点及其影响等问题进行简要分析,并提出对策建议。     

金融保护主义:影响、趋势及应对

金融保护主义包括两种类型,一种是发达国家政府为防止本国资产被外国投资者收购而设置障碍的保护主义,另一种是利用保护措施尽可能地将金融资源留在本国的金融重商主义.本文对金融保护主义的实质与表现、经济影响、发展趋势等问题进行了研究,建议中国应坚持金融业的渐进开放策略,并通过加强多边协调合作、合理调整外汇储备的管理思路、稳步推进人民币的国际化进程等途径应对金融保护主义的挑战.     

后危机时代贸易保护主义的新特点及对策

后危机时代的经济增长发展态势基本平稳,然而,紧随危机爆发接踵而至的贸易保护主义似乎不因全球经济回暖而稍微“收敛”.本文分析后危机时代贸易保护主义出现的新特点,简单分析其对我国外贸发展带来的影响,在此基础上提出关于我国如何参与国际经济合作的针对性建议.     

后危机时代贸易保护主义的新特点及对策

后危机时代的经济增长发展态势基本平稳,然而,紧随危机爆发接踵而至的贸易保护主义似乎不因全球经济回暖而稍微"收敛"。本文分析后危机时代贸易保护主义出现的新特点,简单分析其对我国外贸发展带来的影响,在此基础上提出关于我国如何参与国际经济合作的针对性建议。     

经济危机下的贸易保护主义研究

在由美国次贷危机引起的全球经济危机下,发达国家经济陷入了深度衰退,由于对发达国家经济的信赖性,多数发展中国家经济也不可避免地遇到了较大因难.实体经济冲击严重,各国内部需求疲软,国际市场萎缩.许多国家因此出台了形形色色的贸易保护措施,贸易保护主义情绪日渐高涨.     

刍议贸易保护主义对我国的影响与应对

在金融危机经济低迷的情况下,各国贸易保护主义重新抬头.贸易保护主义无疑将直接冲击和影响我国的进出口贸易,在较长时期內使我国的国际贸易环境复杂化.因此,我国应致力于反对贸易保护主义,积极应对贸易摩擦,加快建设自由贸易区,提升我国外贸产业的国际竞争力,改善外贸企业的发展环境,积极开拓国外新市场,把危机对我国外贸的影响降到最低程度.     

2019年银行业经营情况分析及2020年展望

2019年以来,内外部经济形势日益错综复杂,受贸易保护主义继续抬头、经济面临下行压力等因素影响,我国银行业面临着较大的挑战和改革压力。在宏观政策加大逆周期调节力度和大规模减税降费等稳金融措施的作用下,商业银行经营状况实现可持续发展,经营效益呈现稳中向好的态势,存贷款、资产负债规模保持平稳增长,服务实体经济能力增强,信贷资产质量进一步完善.     

金融危机下的新贸易保护主义不容忽视

<正>贸易保护主义是国际贸易发展的必然结果,随着经济全球化进程的加快,贸易保护主义表现出更多的新特点。特别是在当前形势下,国际金融危机已严重影响到全球的实体经济,贸易保护主义的倾向有所抬头。与传统的贸易保护主义相比,金融危机下的贸易保护在实施手段、实施范围和表现形式上都发生了一些新的变化。     

新兴市场国际资本逆转问题的观察与分析

席卷全球的金融危机改变了国际资本流入新兴市场的既定状况。由于世界范围内的信贷严重紧缩和美元的高调升值,形成了金融资本大规模撤离新兴市场国家的新现象。这一资本逆转的结果不仅可能加大新兴市场国家货币的贬值压力,冲击和干扰其本已脆弱的金融体系,而且势必打击该区域实体产业和既有福利。国际社会应当从加强监管、密切金融合作和消除贸易保护主义等方面尽可能阻止金融资本撤离新兴市场的进程和规模。     

Capital and credit market integration and real economic contagion during the global financial crisis

This study investigates the role of financial integration in the spread of global financial crisis. In particular, this study shows how the effect of the crisis on real business cycle co-movement varied for capital and credit market integration, using a sample of 58 countries in 2001–2013. During the global financial crisis, the United States – the epicenter of the crisis – experienced a severe downturn in the real economy, and other countries followed suit. We find that during the global financial crisis, the business cycle co-movements between the United States and the rest of the world were stronger when the level of capital market integration between them was higher. However, the co-movements were weaker when the level of credit market integration was higher. These findings are robust even when including investment channels, local fundamental factors, endogenous policy responses across countries, and alternative measures for financial integration and business cycle co-movements.     

新冠肺炎疫情、金融市场震荡与金融危机

新型冠状病毒感染肺炎疫情在全球快速蔓延后,美国等国家金融市场出现大幅度震荡,历史罕见。金融市场震荡是疫情影响投资者信心,金融市场本身的风险需要释放,以及经济基本面悲观预期等因素共同作用的结果。目前来看,疫情对实体经济造成冲击,疫情应对情况也在很大程度上决定了金融市场震荡是否演化为全球金融危机,国外金融市场震荡对国内金融市场的传导需要审慎理性处理。     

金融保护主义的演变、特征及对策

本次金融危机以来,以美、英等国为代表的多国政府纷纷出台了史无前例的金融救援计划,正是这些救援计划的出台引起了人们对金融保护主义的关注和担忧。但此次呈现出的金融保护主义与以往相比具有很大的不同。文本旨在分析随着全球经济环境的不断发展变化,金融保护主义形式的演进与发展趋势,并且在此基础上提出应对措施。     

Financial contagion and the real economy

This paper studies the spread of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 from the financial sector to the real economy by examining ten sectors in 25 major developed and emerging stock markets. The analysis tests different channels of financial contagion across countries and sectors and finds that the crisis led to an increased co-movement of returns among financial sector stocks across countries and between financial sector stocks and real economy stocks. The results demonstrate that no country and sector was immune to the adverse effects of the crisis limiting the effectiveness of portfolio diversification. However, there is clear evidence that some sectors in particular Healthcare, Telecommunications and Technology were less severely affected by the crisis.     

Monetary policy spillovers and the trilemma in the new normal: Periphery country sensitivity to core country conditions

We investigate why and how the financial conditions of developing and emerging market countries (peripheral countries) can be affected by the movements in the center economies – the U.S., Japan, the Eurozone, and China. We apply a two-step approach. First, we estimate the sensitivity of countries' financial variables to the center economies [policy interest rate, stock market prices, and the real effective exchange rates (REER)] while controlling for global and domestic factors. Next, we examine the association of the estimated sensitivity coefficients with the macroeconomic conditions, policies, real and financial linkages with the center economies, and the level of institutional development. In the last two decades, for most financial variables, the strength of the links with the center economies have been the dominant factor while the movements of policy interest rate also appear sensitive to global financial shocks around the emerging market crises of the late 1990s and since the global financial crisis of 2008. While certain macroeconomic and institutional variables are important, the arrangement of open macropolicies such as the exchange rate regime and financial openness are also found to have direct influence on the sensitivity to the center economies. An economy that pursues greater exchange rate stability and financial openness faces a stronger link with the center economies through policy interest rates and real effective exchange rate (REER) movements. We also find that exchange market pressure (EMP) in peripheral economies is sensitive to the movements of the center economies' REER and EMP during and after the global financial crisis. Open macro policy arrangements, especially exchange rate regimes, also have indirect effects on the strength of financial linkages, interacting with other macroeconomic conditions. Thus, trilemma policy arrangements, including exchange rate flexibility, continue to affect the sensitivity of developing countries to policy changes and shocks in the center economies.     

The determinants of vulnerability to the global financial crisis 2008 to 2009: Credit growth and other sources of risk

In this paper, we identify initial macroeconomic and financial market conditions that help explain the distinct response of the real economy of a particular country to the recent global financial crisis. Using four measures of crisis severity, we examine a data set with over 90 potential explanatory factors employing techniques that are robust to model uncertainty. Four findings are of particular note. First, we find empirical evidence for the pivotal role of pre-crisis credit growth in shaping the real economy's response to the crisis. Specifically, a 1% increase in pre-crisis lending translates into a 0.2% increase in the cumulative loss in real output. Moreover, the combination of pronounced growth in lending ahead of the crisis and the country's exposure to external funding from advanced economies is shown to intensify the real downturn. Economies with booming real activity before the crisis are found to be less resilient to the global shock. Buoyant growth in real GDP in parallel with strong growth of credit particularly exacerbated the effects of the recent crisis on the real economy. Finally, we provide empirical evidence on the importance of holding international reserves in explaining the response of the real economy to the crisis. The accumulation of international reserves mitigated the harmful effects of financial stress on the real economy, in particular when domestic funding via credit is abundant. The results are shown to be robust to several estimation techniques, including those allowing for cross-country spillovers.     

Stock market risk in the financial crisis

In this paper, we look at the effect of the financial crisis from an angle overlooked to date in the finance literature by investigating composition effects arising from the financial crisis. A composition effect is a change in the market risk of a sector that is caused not by a direct change in that sector but by a change in another sector that affects the composition of the stock market. In the paper we investigate the pre and during crisis market risk of the industrial, banking and utilities sectors. Amongst other results, we find a positive relationship across the G12 countries between the increase in the market risk of industrials during the crisis and both the pre-crisis market risk of the banking sector and the scale of the systemic crisis in a country. The six G12 countries that experienced a major systematic banking crisis are amongst the seven countries with the largest increases in the market risk for industrials. Results drawn from our detailed analysis using US data are consistent with these findings. Finally, we show how the results add to our understanding of the linkages between the financial and real sector and conclude that composition effects of the financial crisis could have a significant chilling effect on investment in industrials, which is in addition to the effect of other linkages already documented.     

全球金融危机下的自我救赎

种种迹象表明,发端于美国的金融危机对实体经济的影响正在各个国家逐步显现,中国在这场来势汹的国际金融危机所掀起的巨浪面前,亦是无法独善其身。     

全球金融危机的启示：价值的反思与体系的重构

2007年美国爆发的次贷危机,通过关国体系的贸易及投资传染链条,在影响全球经济的同时,也带来了人们对传统金融价值观的反思,迫使人们重新审视虚拟经济与实体经济、金融创新与金融稳定、混业经营与分业经营、自由放任与政府干预的关系。此外,金融危机的全球蔓延也考量了国际金融版图的稳定性,并给发展中国家（地区）带来了前所未有的挑战和机遇。