Prediction of prices for oil products in the internal market

The paper considers the Russian market of oil products and provides a model of this sector, on the basis of which suggests approaches to forecasting the internal prices of oil producers within one scenario of economic development.     

Influence of macroeconomic factors on the Russian stock market

The article highlights approaches to estimating external factors having an impact on development of the Russian stock market. It contains different standpoints of international and domestic authors on this subject. The authors have tested the econometric EGARCH model in the article in order to evaluate the impact of various factors on the domestic stock market. The factors analyzed include the gross domestic product (GDP), US dollar exchange rate, euro/dollar ratio, net capital movement, and Brent oil free market price. The results of analysis show the heavy reliance of the dynamics of the Russian MICEX stock exchange index primarily on the oil price and US dollar exchange rate.     

Global commodity prices and global stock market volatility shocks: Effects across countries

We investigate the time-varying dynamics of global stock market volatility, commodity prices, domestic output and consumer prices. We find (i) stock market volatility and commodity price shocks impact each other and the economy in a gradual and endogenous adjustment process, (ii) impact of commodity price shock on global stock market volatility is significant during global financial crises, (iii) effects of global stock market volatility on the US output are amplified by endogenous commodity price responses, (iv) effects of global stock market volatility shocks on the economy are heterogeneous across nations and relatively larger in twelve developed countries, (v) four developing/small economies are more vulnerable to commodity price shocks.     

Foreign dependence of individual stock prices: The role of aggregate product market developments

In this paper, we analyze the role of aggregate variables in the transmission from international stock price developments to individual domestic stock prices in a small open stock market. In particular, a theoretical and econometric model is used to determine whether international aggregate product market developments explain observed differences in foreign dependence among individual Belgian stocks. The results suggest that, except for the stocks of some internationally oriented companies, expected international production is not the most important explanatory variable and that an estimation model of aggregate fundamentals explains only part of individual stock price adjustments.     

Expectational data and Japanese stock prices

This paper examines the impact of a change in analysts' forecasts of earnings and sales per share on the subsequent price performance of a large sample of Japanese stocks. Changes in earnings and sales estimates affect price and the impact is incorporated slowly over time. This lag can be utilized to construct a portfolio of securities which while acting like an index fund earns an excess (extra) return.     

Short selling and stock prices with regime switching in the absence of market makers: The case of Japan

This paper investigates the relation between short selling and stock price at an aggregated market level. In order to study the differential impact of market microstructure on short selling, the data from Japanese stock markets are used. Both traditional regression and Markov switching models are used to compare Japanese results to those of U.S. and to admit non-stationary relation between short selling and stock price, respectively. Particularly, relatively long period (1978–2002) of analysis including bullish and bearish periods gives a good testable bed for studying the effect of short selling on stock price according to market condition. The empirical findings reveal that percentage change of short interests has a statistically significant positive relation with stock returns. It gives regulators policy implication that short selling is not a destabilizing activity, but an acceptable form of trading even in the absence of market makers. And short selling information cannot be used as an indicator for predicting future stock markets.     

Threshold effect in international linkage of stock prices

This paper examines whether the international linkage of the stock price indexes found in previous studies is confirmed for the case where the stock index changes only slightly, utilizing the daily stock price index data from 1975 to 1995 for the US, UK, Germany, and Japan. Using dummy variables in the regressions, it is shown that small changes in the stock price index of any country do not affect the other country's index. In contrast, large changes have a significant effect in most cases. Thus, there is a threshold effect in international linkage of stock prices. It is also shown that negative large changes have a clearer effect than positive ones.     

内幕交易与证券价格的有效性

本文基于中国证券市场的实际情况，修正了Michael和Kathleen（1992）等提出的非竞争模型，探讨内幕交易对证券价格有效性的影响，研究信息和被内幕交易排挤的市场专家数目之间的关系。研究结果表明内幕交易降低了证券价格的有效性，监管的关键在于促使信息在市场参与者之间的均匀分布。     

Nonequilibrium prices and economic market flexibility

This paper describes an approach to estimating an equilibrium wage and an equilibrium rate of return with subsequent identification of their distortions when actual values of macrofactor prices are formed. The relation of the process of distortion of equilibrium prices to Walras’ Law is demonstrated. The concept of nonequilibrium prices is generalized from three markets: labor, capital, and institutional. The notion of economic market flexibility is introduced and its role in achieving economic equilibrium is ascertained. A technique for determining the “natural” rate of unemployment is proposed. All the methods are validated using the United States, Britain, and Russia as examples.     

证券市场制度创新研究

我国证券市场的起步始于改革开放初期。对证券市场的认识和理解都比较浅薄，甚至对证券市场争论尚处于对其“性质”的判定。因此，关注市场的焦点大都是“要与不要”、“发展与限制”、“试验与扩展”等方面，而对市场制度的形成和确立，大多以是否能够完成股票买卖为依据，对证券市场制度的功能、效率、实施环境和内在要求不甚了解和把握。尽管我国证券市场的后发优势的借鉴性采用了国际上比较先进的无纸化交易、T＋3清算等制度模式，但并未对市场的规模拓展、机制完善提供必要的条件，导致证券市场机制的不完备，甚至有些制度如额度分配、指标家数、发行审查等具有强烈的计划经济特征。     

股市投机客：投机也是一种投资

证券交易印花税的上调在市场中引起轩然大波。有人认为,管理层此番重拳出击的目的就是打击投机。但是,市场运行有其自身规律,投机真的需要非市场行为来“打击”么,真正需要管理层打击的又是什么     

Foreign exchange market pressure and stock market dynamics in emerging Asia

International Economics and Economic Policy - This study investigates connections between currency and stock markets for the Asian emerging economies using a novel approach that considers exchange...     

牛市回忆录：曾经沧海难为水

在成为股民的那段日子,心每天都随着K线上下起伏,紧张而刺激。突然间,发觉自己不但很累,也不快乐。于是,决定摆脱原来的状态,重新做“人”     

牛市回忆录：浪花淘尽英雄

2245点，被看做是牛熊市场的“分水岭”。2001年6月，2245点是上一轮牛市的最高点，很多老股民应该不会忘怀。2008年9月5日，被寄予了更多的期望和历史内涵的2245点，被无情地击穿。七年时间，A股市场又完成了一次轮回。从大喜到大悲的转变，宛如一场闹剧。“我们都是靠着一些美好的回忆而活着”，相信看过《三国之见龙卸甲》的人，都会记得这句很琼瑶的台词。股市涨跌，数次轮回，对于很多投资者来说，如今剩下的恐怕也仅仅是回忆了。《新财经》从本期开始，刊登系列文章《牛市回忆录》，以此来感悟自己的投资心得，让中国股民坚强并成熟起来。     

股市二十年：天使与魔鬼的连体

内地股市伴随着庄家盛行、派系林立等中国式的成长,如今以QFII、QDH等方式与世界融合.虽然还很躁动,但毕竟已承载起投资功能     

信贷渠道对我国股票市场的影响

信贷渠道是我国货币政策主要的传导渠道。货币政策通过传导渠道对股票市场产生影响。本文运用协整与基于向量自回归模型的格兰杰因果检验和预测方差分解等时间序列分析方法,实证分析信贷渠道对股票市场的影响,结果表明信贷渠道对我国股票市场产生显著的负相关影响。     

基于流动性下的股市透析

自1999年开始,中国政府开始推出了一系列的管理规定,使得货币市场和资本市场开始有了一定的衔接,货币政策的传导机制逐渐影响资本市场的价格和波动性,随着经济和社会法制的发展和完善,两个市场间的相关性逐渐密切。2005年以来,我国货币市场的流动性问题广泛受到国内学者和专家的关注,目前存在的流动性过剩以及股市持续高涨,房价泡沫现象与日本危机前所出现的经济现象有极大的相似性,本文试图从定性分析的角度来说明流动性过剩现象传导机制下的中国股市和其预期。     

Foreign exchange markets and oil prices in Asia

In this paper, we examine whether oil price can predict exchange rate returns for 14 Asian countries. A new GLS-based time series predictive regression model proposed by Westerlund and Narayan (WN, 2012) is used. The main finding is that higher oil price leads to future depreciation of the Vietnamese dong but future appreciations of the local currencies of Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Hong Kong. A comparison of the widely used Lewellen (2004) and WN (2012) estimators show that both provide similar results in in-sample analysis, although WN is relatively superior at longer horizons in out-of-sample analysis.     

Evaluation of economic crises using short-term indexes and average indexes of economic security of Russia

A system of short-term indicators of economic security of Russia has been suggested for possible use in predicting the origin of crises. A comparative analysis of the 1998–1999, 2008–2009, and 2014–2015 crises has been performed. The formative premises of the crises and their impact on financial sector, real economy, foreign trade, and social welfare have been considered. A technique of synthesizing average indexes in different projections of economic security system has been suggested, and the particularities of their joint combined dynamics have been considered.