Modeling a policy making framework for urban sustainability: Incorporating system dynamics into the Ecological Footprint

The Ecological Footprint (EF) is a powerful tool to advance the science of sustainability. However, the static snapshot of EF accounting is not designed to make projections of future sustainability consequences, which fails to elicit policy implications from a dynamic, temporally explicit perspective. This work attempts to incorporate system dynamics (SD) into EF to develop a dynamic EF forecasting framework, and provide a platform to support policy making for urban sustainability improvement. SD is firstly adopted to model the dynamics and interactions of EF driving forces, and then incorporated into the EF framework by correlating system drivers to EF-related consumption categories, embodied EF is finally calculated using the compound-based method. Based on different policy feasibility and sustainability targets, four policy scenarios are designed to explore future sustainability prospects and formulate integrated policies which would attain that sustainability scenario. The modeling procedure is applied to a case study area to illustrate how it works, and policy making for urban sustainability can hopefully be supported using this developed framework in the near future.     

Evaluating the effects of embodied energy in international trade on ecological footprint in China

Based on sub-sectoral level of economy and detailed traded items, embodied energy (EE) in international trade flow in China is estimated during 1996-2004, and the effects of EE on sustainability are quantified by using one of the most popular indicators—Ecological footprint (EF). A framework of EF method, which is more relevant to realism of specific country, is proposed in this paper. The results show that China is a net importer of EE during the period covered by this study except for the year from 1997 to 1999. Imported, Exported and Net imported EE tends to increase sharply along time series. Net imported energy would increase 38% and energy consumption would increase 2.8% in 2004 if EE were taken into account. Footprint_energy is the most important part of EF components and is significantly affected by EE, and the effects of EE on EF are similar to that of Footprint_energy. Footprint_energy, EF and ecological deficit of 2004 will be underestimated about 2.92%, 1.36%, 2.83%, res pectively, if EE is not taken into the national energy budget. Continuous increase of EF and ecological deficit along time series indicates that China is moving away from sustainability. 1.47 times Chinese territories are accurately occupied by China in 1996 while 1.71 times in 2004. Obviously unsustainability procedure of China is accelerated by EE. The contribution of EE to EF and ecological deficit is small in absolute terms expressed in per capita, but the effects on whole nation are huge if the population of China multiplies them. To curb the increase of EF and ecological deficit and to achieve the goal of sustainability, some policy and measures are also proposed.     

Conceptualizing sustainable development: An assessment methodology connecting values, knowledge, worldviews and scenarios

Sustainability science poses severe challenges to classical disciplinary science. To bring the perspectives of diverse disciplines together in a meaningful way, we describe a novel methodology for sustainability assessment of a particular social-ecological system, or country. Starting point is that a sustainability assessment should investigate the ability to continue and develop a desirable way of living vis-à-vis later generations and life elsewhere on the planet. Evidently, people hold different values and beliefs about the way societies sustain quality of life for their members. The first step, therefore, is to analyze people's value orientations and the way in which they interpret sustainability problems i.e. their beliefs. The next step is to translate the resulting worldviews into model-based narratives, i.e. scenarios. The qualitative and quantitative outcomes are then investigated in terms of associated risks and opportunities and robustness of policy options.The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) has followed this methodology, using extensive surveys among the Dutch population. In its First Sustainability Outlook (2004), the resulting archetypical worldviews became the basis for four different scenarios for policy analysis, with emphases on the domains of transport, energy and food. The goal of the agency's Sustainability Outlooks is to show that choices are inevitable in policy making for sustainable development, to indicate which positive and negative impacts one can expect of these choices (trade-offs), and to identify options that may be robust under several worldviews. The conceptualization proposed here is both clear and applicable in practical sustainability assessments for policy making.     

Reconciling economic and biological modeling of migratory fish stocks: Optimal management of the Atlantic salmon fishery in the Baltic Sea

The paper puts forward a model of the Atlantic salmon fishery in the Baltic Sea that integrates the salient biological and economic characteristics of migratory fish stocks. Designed to be compatible with the framework used for actual stock assessments, the model accounts for age-structured population dynamics, the seasonal harvest and competing harvesting by commercial and recreational fishermen. It is parameterized for the Simojoki River stock. The socially optimal policy for maximizing discounted net benefits from the fishery within an uncertain environment is determined using a dynamic programming approach and numerical solution method. Our results indicate that substantial economic benefits could be realized under optimal management without compromising stock sustainability.     

Dynamic sustainability assessment: The case of Russia in the period of transition (1985-2008)

Russia has experienced twenty years of economic and social change, which had a substantial impact on the regional and sectoral patterns of the development of its economy, infrastructure, the quality of the environment and the well-being of its people. The current economic revival offers new opportunities and presents new challenges for the sustainable development of Russia.The paper employs the UN Sustainable Development framework of indicators and assesses sustainability of Russia using multi-criteria evaluation methods, namely the uncertainty randomization multi-criteria evaluation method “Analysis and Synthesis of Parameters under Information Deficiency” (ASPID). The analysis covers economic, environmental and social trends in Russia's development in 1985-2008 and assesses sustainability of this development from the point of view of multiple criteria.The results show the potential of employment of multi-criteria methods for the sustainability assessment at the macro level and offer useful insights into multidimensional nature of sustainability and the role of priority setting in the evaluation process. Such an analysis reveals the degree of harmoniousness of sustainable development policy. It shows how different sets of priorities determine the outcome of multidimensional analysis of sustainability and could potentially help in assessing progress and designing new policy instruments. This paper is one of the first to apply multi-criteria methods to the macro sustainability analysis in the dynamic setting.     

Market dynamics, dynamic resource management and environmental policy in the context of (strong) sustainability

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between market dynamics, dynamic resource management and environmental policy. In contrast to static market entry games, this paper draws attention to the effects of market dynamics on resource dynamics et vice versa, because (1) we show that feedback processes are necessary for obtaining a better understanding of what drives the dynamics between the evolution of common-pool resources and the number of harvesters and more importantly, (2) this analysis provides an environment discussing sustainability in an appropriate inasmuch dynamic way. The paper makes the following points: based on a co-evolutionary model, which incorporates resource and market dynamics simultaneously, it is shown that an increasing number of harvesters does not necessarily imply a lower stock of the common-pool resource in the long run. Further it is shown that a tax-scheme establish an output-sharing solution for coping with the overuse of common-pool resources. This results is in contrast to the prevailing literature, which mainly discusses tax-schemes and out-sharing as substitutes rather than as complements for solving the commons-problem. This conclusion holds even if we additionally assume harvesting-cost-reducing technological progress. On the other side if policy interventions ceased, strong resource sustainability in the sense of resource conservation is not possible, given technological progress is a relevant issue.     

Urban–rural gap and poverty traps in China: A prefecture level analysis

Urban–rural gap and regional inequality are long-standing problems in China and result in considerable number of studies. This article examines the dynamic behaviours of incomes for both urban and rural areas with a prefectural data set. The analysis is conducted by using a distribution dynamics approach, which have advantages in examination on persistence, polarization and convergence clubs. The results show that persistence and immobility are the dominant characteristics in the income distribution dynamics. The prefectural urban and rural areas converge into their own steady states differentiated in income levels. This pattern of urban–rural gap also exists in three regional groups, namely the eastern, central and western regions. Examination on the dynamics of the poorest areas shows that geographical poverty traps exist in both urban and rural prefectural areas. Our results indicate that more policy interventions are required to narrow down the urban–rural gap and to eliminate the poverty traps in China.     

An economic-ecological model of urban growth and urban externalities: empirical evidence from Italy

The importance of urban size for urban sustainability is well known; it plays an important role in the possibility of shaping the quality of urban living conditions. For this reason, it is important to study urban dynamics in connection with the issue of environmental quality. Moreover, awareness of the existence of cyclical patterns in urban dynamics, which we stress in this paper, can be useful for the formulation of environmental policies enabling a steady state equilibrium to be reached in terms of sustainability by flattening out the cyclical waves. A number of more quantitative models for the interpretation of urban growth has been provided; these models are related to the well-known ecological prey-predator model of Lotka–Volterra, and provide a good interpretative framework of the territorial phenomena, characterised by strong feed-back mechanisms. Recently, a pure economic model, linking the per-capita income and the urban rents has been suggested as a possible interpretative model of urban growth which is characterised by two main advantages: (a) its capacity to overcome some of the limits of the previous prey-predator models, like the necessity to apply the concept of an urban carrying capacity; (b) its pure economic feature. The present paper presents the model and the logic behind it and provides an empirical analysis of the model based on the Italian case. An econometric model is presented on the relationship between urban population growth and urban rent, based on a database of 95 Italian cities in time series from 1963 to 1996; the feedback mechanisms between the two variables emerge. This work represents the first attempt to provide an estimate of the prey-predator model based on real data.     

Efficiency, equity, and sustainability in a water quantity-quality optimization model in the Rio Grande basin

Integrated hydrologic and economic optimization models at the basin scale provide a framework for policy design, implementation, and evaluation in water-stressed basins. Despite the considerable potential that basin scale analysis offers, few basin-wide studies have examined tradeoffs among efficiency, equity, and sustainability when analyzing the design of water resource programs. This paper develops a basin scale framework to identify hydrologic and economic impacts of alternative water pricing programs that comply with environmental regulations for protecting water quality. Key issues are examined that confront integrated hydroeconomic basin models: linking water and economics, spatial and temporal scale integration, and quantity-quality relationships. Economic efficiency is defined and measured for each of two urban water pricing arrangements that comply with urban water quality protection regulations. Alternative measures of equity are analyzed in both spatial and temporal dimensions. Sustainability is evaluated physically for protecting the water supply and financially for long-term revenue viability. The approach is illustrated from results of a dynamic nonlinear programming optimization model of water use in North America's Rio Grande basin. The model optimizes the net present value of the basin's total economic benefits subject to constraints on equity, sustainability, hydrology, and institutions. It is applied to assess impacts of a two-tiered pricing program that complies with recently implemented drinking water quality standards for the basin's two largest U.S. cities: Albuquerque, New Mexico, and El Paso, Texas. Results suggest that two-tiered pricing of urban water supply has considerable potential to perform well in meeting the aims of efficiency, equity, and sustainability. Findings provide a general framework for designing water pricing programs that comply with environmental regulations.     

Eco-efficiency guiding micro-level actions towards sustainability: Ten basic steps for analysis

This paper looks at the compatibility between technological improvements at the micro-level and sustainability at the macro-level. The two main approaches to prevent environmental degradation are technological improvement and economic degrowth. How do we establish the sustainability of technological options? LCA-type analysis of the technology system, combined with economic cost analysis, offers a first integrated eco-efficiency score. However, such a technology analysis focuses on micro-level technology relations only, is usually too optimistic and ignores other constraints implied in a choice.Fitting more comprehensive knowledge into the sustainability evaluation of options requires a unifying systematic framework, which is worked out in the present paper as a ten-step procedure. The integrative framework for empirical analysis is ultimately a comparative-static systems analysis at macro-level, not in a deterministic dynamic mode, which is impossible, but as a knowledge-fed scenario analysis. The analysis shows the change in society's overall eco-efficiency, combining total value creation with total environmental impacts.Possible domains of application include not only technology choices like those in eco-innovation, including changed consumption styles and volumes, but also changes in policies regarding technologies and markets, whether direct policy shifts or indirect changes through institutional adaptations. Ultimately, such a framework also allows culturally framed questions about the type of society we would like to live in, to be analysed in terms of their economic and environmental consequences.     

A framework for implementing information and communication technologies in agricultural development in India

Knowledge is an increasingly significant factor of production in modern agriculture. Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) can accelerate agricultural development by facilitating knowledge management. Based on an evaluation of several ICT initiatives in rural India, a framework to guide policy and implementation of ICTs in Indian agriculture is proposed. In this framework, agricultural development is visualized from two perspectives, a rural incomes and livelihoods perspective at the farm level, and a sustainability perspective at the regional level. The implementation of ICTs is proposed in three unique institutional environments: (i) closed vertical supply chain network for agribusiness enterprises, (ii) an open chain network with dynamically evolving partners and supply chain situations for the public, non-governmental and multilateral organizations, and (iii) a spatial data services network to address natural resources management and sustainability concerns. Each environment is assessed to identify its appropriate business models centered around ICTs, required technologies, scope for up-scaling the models, and required institutional and policy initiatives. In the future, as ICT infrastructure grows and connectivity and hardware costs decline, the critical constraints are likely to be the development of appropriate policy and institutional environments for the creation and delivery of information and knowledge to the end users. Significant policy, institutional networking and capacity building initiatives will be required at various levels to overcome the constraints and effectively integrate ICTs into the agricultural development process in India.     

The dynamics of Greek public debt – evidence from simultaneous and structural VAR models

The goal of the present article was to investigate not only the dynamics of the Greek public debt, but also the appropriate measures required for achieving fiscal consolidation. The empirical estimation is carried out using a macroeconomic data set spanning the period 1980–2008 and both the three-stage least squares (3SLS) methodological approach on a theoretical model and the structural VAR methodology to perform forecast tests and to calibrate the future paths of the public debt variable up to 2020. The results suggest that only a restrictive fiscal policy that simultaneously increases government revenues and reduces government expenditure could permit the country to achieve debt sustainability. The results also suggest that debt sustainability can be achieved faster when tax revenue policies are intensified. The results are expected to have important implications to policymakers for designing effective macroeconomic policy in terms of achieving sustainable levels of public debt.     

Dynamic modeling of environmental amenity-driven migration with ecological feedbacks

Environmental amenity-driven migration presents a double-edged sword to policy makers concerned with both economic and ecological sustainability. Clearly the protection of environmental amenities is important, but what is the right balance between ecosystem protection and regional economic processes that simultaneously respond to and degrade ecological resources? We consider this question in the context of households that are attracted to a region by urban and lake amenities and a lake ecosystem that becomes degraded by land development. An analytical expression for the time evolution of population is derived from households' and firms' optimizing behaviors. Numerical methods with phase plane diagrams are used to study the steady state and transient dynamics of the resulting population-phosphorus coupled system. The system is found to be bi-stable under a range of parameter values with one attractor corresponding to a desired “balanced” economy-ecology state and the other to a very small population base with fully restored ecology. We examine the dynamics and quantify the resilience of the system in and away from the balanced steady state using phase plane diagrams that demarcate the two domains of attraction. Economic-ecological interactions fundamentally alter regional economic dynamics and influence the resilience of the balanced domain of attraction. For example, a one percent increase in the loadings coefficient associated with residential land development generates a three percent decline in the resilience of the balanced state. We find that economic feedbacks often increase system resilience. Initial increases in the attraction of urban amenities spur greater population growth that increases the resilience of the balanced state. In addition, price feedbacks that arise from capitalized (dis)amenities increase the resilience of the system to bad ecological shocks.     

A new method for assessing the sustainability of land-use systems (II): Evaluating impact indicators

In the past decade, numerous indicators and indicator sets for sustainable agriculture and sustainable land management have been proposed. In addition to their interest in comparing different management systems on an indicator by indicator basis, land managers are often interested in comparing individual indicators against a threshold, or, in order to study trade-offs, against each other. To this end it is necessary to (1) transform the original indicators into a comparable format, and (2) score these transformed indicators against a sustainability function.This paper introduces an evaluation method for land-use-related impact indicators, which was designed to accomplish these tasks. It is the second of a series of two papers, and as such it links into a larger framework for sustainability assessment of land use systems.The evaluation scheme introduced here comprises (1) a standardisation procedure, which aims at making different indicators comparable. In this procedure indicators are first normalised, by referencing them to the total impact they contribute towards, and then they are corrected by a factor describing the severity of this total impact in terms of exceeding a threshold. The procedure borrows conceptually from Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) Impact Analysis methodology; (2) a valuation procedure, which judges the individual standardised indicators with regard to sustainability.This methodology is then tested on an indicator set for the environmental impact of a spinach production system in Northwest Germany. The method highlights mineral resource consumption, greenhouse gas emission, eutrophication and impacts on soil quality as the most important environmental effects of the studied system.We then explore the effect of introducing weighting factors, reflecting the differing societal perception of diverse environmental issues. Two different sets of weighting factors are used. The influence of weighting is, however, small compared to that of the standardisation procedure introduced earlier.Finally, we explore the propagation of uncertainty (defined as a variable's 95% confidence limits) throughout the standardisation procedure using a stochastic simulation approach. The uncertainty of the analysed standardised indicator was higher than that of the non-standardised indicators by a factor of 2.0 to 2.5.     

Prospects for sustainable land-use policy in Germany: Experimenting with a sustainability heuristic

Land is an essential yet limited natural resource. Its current unsustainable use highlights the need for sustainability policies. In order to explore potential policy strategies, we use the concepts of stocks and durable institutions as tools for analysing temporal structures in nature and society. These concepts are incorporated into a heuristic aimed at reducing complexity and finding windows of opportunity for policy action. The heuristic is applied to current German land-use policy. We show that the German government is highly unlikely to achieve its declared sustainability goal to reduce the rate of land conversion to 30 ha/day by 2020. Analysis of the inherent dynamics of major stocks and institutions reveals that, even in a situation with stagnating or declining population, the inertia of institutions such as local municipal self-administration and the municipal financial system prevents the government's sustainability goals from being achieved.     

Towards an operational sustainability criterion

This paper examines the concept of sustainability and its implications for environmental policy analysis. It builds on the premise that present society holds a moral obligation to pass on a world of undiminished life opportunities to members of future generations. Maintaining life opportunities, in turn, can be achieved by maintaining or improving a diverse set of resources and capabilities that support a person's freedom to define and pursue her own conception of the good life. On an operational level, this framework points to the following guideline for environmental policy: Protecting the rights of future generations requires either the conservation of environmental resources or compensatory measures (including the provision of substitute technologies) that ensure the fair and proportionate sharing of net benefits over intergenerational time scales. In this framework, resource depletion is permissible only if (with reasonable certainty) it would generate a Pareto improvement relative to a baseline scenario involving strict resource conservation.     

The inherent dangers of using computable general equilibrium models as a single integrated modelling framework for sustainability impact assessment. A critical note on Böhringer and Löschel (2006)

The search for methods of assessment that best evaluate and integrate the trade-offs and interactions between the economic, environmental and social components of development has been receiving a new impetus due to the requirement that sustainability concerns be incorporated into the policy formulation process. A paper forthcoming in Ecological Economics [Böhringer, C., Löschel, A., in press. Computable general equilibrium models for sustainability impact assessment: status quo and prospects, Ecological Economics.] claims that Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models may potentially represent the much needed “back-bone” tool to carry out reliable integrated quantitative Sustainability Impact Assessments (SIAs). While acknowledging the usefulness of CGE models for some dimensions of SIA, this commentary questions the legitimacy of employing this particular economic modelling tool as a single integrating modelling framework for a comprehensive evaluation of the multi-dimensional, dynamic and complex interactions between policy and sustainability. It discusses several inherent dangers associated with the advocated prospects for the CGE modelling approach to contribute to comprehensive and reliable sustainability impact assessments. The paper warns that this reductionist viewpoint may seriously infringe upon the basic values underpinning the SIA process, namely a transparent, heterogeneous, balanced, inter-disciplinary, consultative and participatory take to policy evaluation and building of the evidence-base.     

Fiscal limits in developing countries: A DSGE Approach

This paper studies fiscal limits in developing countries using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach. Distributions of fiscal limits, which measure a government’s capacity to service its debt, are simulated based on macroeconomic uncertainty and fiscal policy. The analysis shows that expected future revenue plays an important role in explaining the low fiscal limits of developing countries, relative to those of developed countries. Large devaluation of real exchange rates can significantly reduce a government’s capacity to service its debt and lower the fiscal limits. Temporary disturbances, therefore, can shift the distribution of fiscal limits and suddenly change perceptions about fiscal sustainability.     

The long breadth of cities: revisiting worldwide urbanization patterns, 1950–2030

ABSTRACT

A comparative analysis of population dynamics worldwide contributes to profile distinctive demographic and economic trajectories of urban growth, discriminating processes of settlement concentration or dispersion under sequential cycles of urbanization. However, a wide-ranging characterization of urban cycles based on demographic dynamics worldwide is still missing. The present work is aimed at filling such a gap analysing long-term changes (1950–2030) in annual population growth rate of 1691 urban agglomerations with more than 300,000 inhabitants in 74 world countries. Results of this study indicate that metropolitan growth worldwide was associated with largely variable rates of population growth, highly positive before 2000 and progressively reducing over recent decades. Despite important differences at continental (and country) scale, demographic expansion of urban agglomerations showed two contrasting phases with a break point in the 1980s denoting a progressive reduction in spatial heterogeneity of population growth rates and a moderate slowdown in demographic dynamics. Intensity of urban expansion and spatial heterogeneity in population growth rates across metropolitan agglomerations evidences a trade-off between fast and slow demographic dynamics. These findings can be better understood to support theories of sequential city growth, making a suitable contribution to policy making, especially in countries where urban population is expanding more rapidly.     

对外经济政策的国内政治影响因素——国际政治经济学的视角

作为西方主流经济学的国际经济学,忽视了国内政治因素尤其是政治制度在对外经济政策中的重要作用。国际政治经济学作为一门新兴学科,将政治因素纳入了经济学的分析框架,从政治与经济相互结合的视角探讨影响对外经济政策的因素。在实行代议民主制的国家,作为政治制度主要行为体的利益集团和左右翼政党的政策偏好,以及不同的民主模式,对贸易政策、汇率政策和资本流动政策的选择都具有十分重要的影响。