Forecasting with real-time macroeconomic data: The ragged-edge problem and revisions

Real-time macroeconomic data are typically incomplete for today and the immediate past (‘ragged edge’) and subject to revision. To enable more timely forecasts the recent missing data have to be imputed. The paper presents a state-space model that can deal with publication lags and data revisions. The framework is applied to the US leading index. We conclude that including even a simple model of data revisions improves the accuracy of the imputations and that the univariate imputation method in levels adopted by The Conference Board can be improved upon.     

Value of clinical trial narrative data to estimate the costs of adverse event management: a feasibility study

Abstract

Aims: The objective of this feasibility study was to determine the extent to which data from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) may serve as a useful source for collecting health care resource use (HCRU) for the purposes of estimating costs of managing adverse events (AEs), specifically, grade 3–4 nausea and thrombocytopenia, which may be experienced during chemotherapy treatment.

Materials and Methods: The feasibility study was conducted in four steps: (1) HCRU data were extracted from patient narratives in four phase 3 RCTs in non–small cell lung cancer; (2) missing HCRU data were imputed; (3) unit costs were applied to the resulting HCRU data set and costs of managing AEs were estimated; and (4) the overall utility of using RCT data as a source for estimating costs of AEs was evaluated.

Results: 33 nausea and 68 thrombocytopenia AEs met eligibility criteria and were evaluated in this study. Medication usage was recorded as a treatment in 76% of nausea AEs, although only 14% of the instances of medication usage included the minimum data elements required for costing. Platelet transfusions were provided in 24% of thrombocytopenia AEs; however, in only one instance were the minimum data elements recorded. Of nausea and thrombocytopenia AEs, 18% and 72%, respectively, required no missing data assumptions or imputation.

Limitations: Only two AEs were considered, and they may not be representative of all AEs in terms of suitability for use in estimating HCRU and costs of managing AEs. Not all grade 3–4 AEs met the criteria for requiring a patient narrative. HCRU data in the narratives were incomplete.

Conclusions: The usefulness of RCTs for estimating the costs of AEs may be improved by using a standardized form to collect HCRU data for key AEs, including an appropriate level of detail required to estimate costs of managing the AEs.     

Financial Market Data Versus Accounting Data: Which Better Explains Stock Returns?

This paper presents the comparison of how financial market and accounting data affect stock prices and returns. The goal was to ascertain whether financial information or accounting data dominate in evaluating stock prices. Most valuation techniques used by firms are based on models using either accounting variables (earnings, book value, cash flows, research and development expenses) or financial market data (e.g. beta, market value, interest). The answer is of great importance for valuators and investors as it will help them focus on the most important variables and make better valuations and choices. This answer is also important for accounting standard setters as the preferred method will serve as an indicator for the quality of financial statements and their importance to users. The paper contributes to the existing literature in the fields of value relevance of accounting information and firm valuation and accounting standards (e.g. International Financial Reporting Standards, United States General Accepted Accounting Principles). To answer this question, share prices were estimated based on financial data using the capital asset pricing model and for accounting data, using Ohlson’s model. The results were tested for both methodologies by comparing estimated share prices with actual ones. The greater the correlation between the two variables the better the explanatory power of the model. The focus was on S&P 500 firms for the period 2002–2017.

     

Financial sector opening and financial constraints: an empirical study based on China’s experiences

ABSTRACT

The paper investigates the effect of financial sector opening on financial constraints based on the experiences in China. We firstly review the policy of China’s financial sector opening and set up exogenous policy measures. Then based on the panel data of listed firms from 2010 to 2015, we calculate four indices to measure China’s firm-level financial constraints through internal and external finance channels. We find that China’s financial sector opening alleviates financial constraints and upgrades the financing structure for China’s listed firms. Financial sector opening also eliminates ownership discrimination and promotes financing efficiency, to alleviate financial constraints of private enterprises and profitable enterprises. The mechanism of the effects of financial sector opening on financial constrain is mainly through the collateral channels and the elimination of information asymmetry.     

次贷危机下会计信息披露面临的挑战及应对措施

眼下全球正身处几十年来最严重的一场金融危机中。基于会计信息披露的角度，本文分析了次贷危机下会计信息披露所凸现的不足：公允价值计量属性增加了会计信息的波动性，充分信息披露的缺失导致会计预警功能失效。采用混合计量模式、提高信息披露的及时性、加强信息披露的刚性约束等是次贷危机下弥补会计信息披露缺陷的有效路径。     

Microdata imputations and macrodata implications: Evidence from the Ifo Business Survey

A widespread method for forecasting economic macro level parameters such as GDP growth rates is survey-based indicators that contain early information in contrast to official data. But surveys are commonly affected by nonresponding units, which can cause biased results. Many papers have examined the effect of nonresponse in individual or household surveys, but less is known in the case of business surveys. For this reason, we analyse and impute the missing observations in the Ifo Business Survey, a large business survey in Germany. The most prominent result of this survey is the Ifo Business Climate Index, a leading indicator for the German business cycle. To reflect the underlying latent data generating process, we compare different imputation approaches for longitudinal data. After this, the microdata are aggregated and the results are compared with the original indicators to evaluate their implications at the macro level. Finally, we show that the differences between the original and imputed indicators do not lead to substantial changes in the interpretation and the forecasting performance of the indicators.     

公允价值会计顺周期性及其改进——基于金融危机的视角

近两年的金融市场动荡显示了会计信息的不确定性,公允价值会计（FVA）方法被引入到银行的资产负债表中,是金融机构首选的核算框架。FVA方法的缺陷可能会带来波动性和顺周期性,因此需要一些改进。资本缓冲、前瞻性的拨备和更完善的信息披露有助于减轻FVA方法的顺周期性。会计估值方法、审慎监管措施和风险管理之间需要相互协调,并根据各方要求作出调整。     

“后危机”时代大连市会展业发展对策

金融危机在给大连市会展业带来不利影响的同时,也为其带来了发展的机遇。大连市会展业要进一步完善会展管理体制,创新展会运营模式,合理规划使用展馆,注重对会展人才的培养,以促进其会展业的健康发展。     

Inventory investment and financial constraints in the Italian manufacturing industry: A panel data GMM approach

Three large unbalanced panels of Italian manufacturing firms observed over the period 1991–2009 are employed to assess, by means of a dynamic GMM approach, whether the existence of financial frictions is suitable to explain deviations of inventories from their long-run path. A negative response of inventory investment to the presence of financial burdens might provide evidence of a significant role played by the financial framework in conditioning the real side of the economy, especially during recession years, when liquidity problems arise. The negative effect is found over the entire analyzed period, with firms' dimensional aspects accounting more than risk characteristics to explain the phenomenon, but the inclusion of recessionary dummies into the model leads to controversial and puzzling results. A significant recessionary effect is found during the Nineties, accounting for inventories being more sensitive to financial frictions during the main recessionary peaks, 1993 and 1996. The result is not confirmed by the most recent estimates, especially the ones referring to the 2008–2009 recessionary shock, whose effects are investigated for the first time by a paper addressing the inventory investment–financial constraints subject. Alternative hypothesis for the proposed results have been tested on data. Firms were found to rely on inventory decumulation to a lesser extent compared to the past, to generate internal financing. More specifically, disinvestments in financial assets were found to represent, as a matter of fact, one of the main drivers adopted to ease liquidity tensions: a negative and strongly significant relationship with inventory investment was detected, after controlling for short-run liquidity constraints at firm level. By contrast, only a weak negative relationship was established with fixed capital during the same recessionary biennium.     

The accounting identity trap: identification under stock-and-flow rank deficiency

Empirical research relying on inputs from published company financial statements ignore the fact that the observed accounting data matrix has been purposefully designed to be rank deficient by means of articulation between stocks and flows. This inherent feature of the data-generating process suggests structural non-identification when both stocks and flows appear in the design matrix and a constraint is required to identify parameters. Much financial research has fallen into this ‘accounting identity trap’ and routinely employs implicit constraints to enable estimation, albeit without acknowledgement of the constraints hence the misleading inferences. This article elucidates the problem of parameter identification under stock-and-flow rank deficiency using existing applications on equity pricing. The focus is on the interpretation of slope coefficients that must be anchored on economically defensible parameter constraints.     

Transitional Adjustment of Large Companies in Slovenia and Economic Policy

This article analyses transition crisis in large companies using the case of Slovenia. According to the accounting data for 1991 and 1997 a great part of the transition crisis was centred in large companies. In Slovenia, in general crisis conditions in large companies arose because of a very high or very low capital/labour ratio and the inability of management to cope with redundant capital or labour. Only recently have unfavourable market and financial positions become more important, but they are still not the most important factor. Companies which oriented themselves to foreign markets and invested, succeeded in making profits in spite of increased debts and an unfavourable debt/equity ratio. Large companies in state ownership have preserved soft budget constraints. Many companies shrank drastically; they have survived, but their efficiency is low.     

Macroprudential regulations and bank profit efficiency: international evidence

This study examines the impact of macroprudential regulations on bank profit efficiency. The latter is being estimated with a production frontier function using a cross-country dataset of more than 3000 banks from over 130 countries during 2013–2018. The results show that macroprudential regulatory policies diminish bank efficiency. This finding applies to both borrower-targeted and financial institutions-targeted policies, and it is robust to the inclusion of controls for microprudential regulations, financial consumer protection policies, and other county-level characteristics in the regressions.

     

Exploring the relationship between CSR performance and financial constraints: empirical evidence from European firms

This paper investigates the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities and financial constraints. Our panel dataset consists of 397 European companies listed in the STOXX Europe 600 during 2009–2014. The findings reveal that firms with higher CSR performance exhibit lower degree of financial constraints. In addition, the link between CSR performance and financial constraints is a fully mediated relationship. The negative effect of CSR performance on financial constraints follows the path through mitigating agency conflicts of free cash flow and information asymmetry. The findings suggest that one mechanism linking CSR performance and financial constraints is a reduction of capital-market imperfections.     

A Modern Money Perspective on Financial Crowding-out

Abstract

The withdrawal of discretionary fiscal stimulus and a renewed emphasis on institutional and ‘self-imposed’ budgetary constraints are evidence that the imperative of fiscal sustainability and sound accounting fundamentals continue to drive fiscal policymaking within many advanced economies. To buttress the urgency for fiscal sustainability, neo-liberals often draw upon financial crowding-out theory. Despite an extensive literature, empirical applications are often misspecified due to their failure to account for different institutional arrangements. However, the policy responses of national governments to the Global Financial Crisis have highlighted the institutional disparities, presenting a unique opportunity for a rigorous empirical investigation. This paper develops panel vector error correction models for both sovereign and non-sovereign economies over the period 1999 to 2010 to examine financial crowding-out. The empirical evidence reveals crowding-out effects in non-sovereign economies, but not within sovereign economies.     

金融危机对大连市会展业的影响及其对策

国际金融危机的爆发,对会展业的冲击和影响最为直接。大连会展业在参展商、专业观众、办展企业、展馆以及相关产业方面都受到了不同程度的影响,为了应对金融危机,大连应该在拉动参展商的参展并满足需求、开拓新兴市场、加大政府扶持力度、提高展馆利用率、完善配套服务体系等方面采取积极措施,以实现大连会晨业的持续、稳步、健康发展。     

Remittance and financial inclusion in refugee migrants: inverse probability of treatment weighting using the propensity score

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the impact on remittances on financial inclusion of refugee migrants. While financial inclusion is gaining traction in the humanitarian and development literature, the linkage with the potential to improve the wellbeing of refugees, who are part of an upward spiral in numbers, has not been tackled. We examine World Bank survey data of 1041 Syrian refugees, using the inverse probability of treatment weighting propensity score analysis (IPTW). The method minimises the influence of outliers and addresses unobservable and missing data biases, which can plague survey based data. We observe that common indicators of financial inclusion when applied to refugees, given their limited access to formal financial services, may introduce a bias as the informal financial sector and excluded formal financial sector services do contribute to inclusiveness. We adopt a broader protocol for our data, measuring financial inclusion through six metrics stemming from G20 proposals. Overall, there is an opportunity to deepen financial inclusion for refugees who receive or send remittances. The possibility of expanding the financial inclusion options, and for this to percolate through to greater social inclusion, proffers practical commercial steps and policy enabling actions.     

A contribution on the nature and treatment of missing data in large market surveys

Nonresponse (or missing data) is often encountered in large-scale surveys. To enable the behavioural analysis of these data sets, statistical treatments are commonly applied to complete or remove these data. However, the correctness of such procedures critically depends on the nature of the underlying missingness generation process. Clearly, the efficacy of applying either case deletion or imputation procedures rests on the unknown missingness generation mechanism. The contribution of this article is twofold. The study is the first to propose a simple sequential method to attempt to identify the form of missingness. Second, the effectiveness of the tests is assessed by generating (experimentally) nine missing data sets by imposed missing completely at random, missing at random and not missing at random processes, with data removed.     

Improvement of a Bio-Economic Mathematical Programming Model in the Case of On-Farm Source Inputs and Outputs

We present a two-step process for solving nonlinear farm activity models inside a linear framework under the assumption that market prices approximate the shadow prices of the model’s constraints. In the event of market imperfections or missing prices (for example non-marketed outputs), the previous assumption is not justified and the derived solution is not optimal. To circumvent this problem and to avoid nonlinear algorithms that may prove unwieldy for large models, we propose an iterative computation method, based on the re-estimation of shadow prices in each step until a converging solution is found. The method is applied to the bio-economic model AROPAj, which consists of a number of linear programming (LP) farm sub-models representing different farming systems across the European Union. For most of LPs producing non-marketed outputs a converging solution is obtained in two iterations, while the remaining LPs lead to periodic solutions of very low amplitude.

     

ACCOUNTING FOR TIME USE

In this paper the author discusses how statistics on time use can be integrated into a social accounting matrix representation of economic activity. Time use data are presented as an extended manpower matrix and related to Stone's basic dynamic framework for social statistics. The valuation of time and methods of imputation are then discussed in relation to the choice of production boundary. It is argued that any imputations of labour income must be balanced by valuing goods consumed at their user cost and that there is a case for imputing value to all uses of time.     

Professionals inside the board room: accounting expertise of directors and dividend policy

Directors’ personal attributes have significant impacts on governance effectiveness. We study whether directors’ accounting expertise affects corporate financial policy and investigate dividend in specific. We construct a dataset of audit committee directors’ accounting expertise for Standard & Poor 500 firms from 2005 to 2012. We first verify directors’ monitoring roles by showing that firms with accounting expert sitting on their audit committees demonstrate stronger accounting conservatism. In our main tests, we find that these firms maintain lower dividend payment level, which are less sensitive to earnings volatility. This suggests directors’ advisory roles in financial policy. We further show that our accounting expertise cannot be subsumed by management ability. In additional test, we further examine the baseline results conditional on analyst forecast error. Our findings highlight the importance of directors’ professional expertise in fulfilling their governance roles.