Globalization and Income Gap from the Perspective of Developing Countries

Using political economic theory, this paper analyzes the impact of economic globalization on international income distribution, including the income gap between developed countries and developing ones, the income gap among the developing countries. The paper states that because the economic globalization is the globalization of capitalism manufacture style and developed countries dominates the process, the income gap between developing countries and developed one is difficult to be narrowed, and the income gap in developing countries will enlarge.     

How Do Factor Specificity and Emigration Make Income Inequality Worse in Developing Countries?

Journal of Quantitative Economics - Immigration policies in most developed countries are increasingly tilted toward skilled labor. Whether such policies hurt the sending countries is somewhat...     

Can International Climate Cooperation Induce Knowledge Spillover to Developing Countries? Evidence from CDM

Environmental and Resource Economics - Under the Kyoto Protocol, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) expects to facilitate the North-South knowledge spillovers for climate-friendly...     

Does Population Aging Hinder the Accumulation of Human Capital? Evidence from China

There is no consensus on the impact of population aging on education investment. To explore this question, we first build an overlapping generations (OLG) model to theoretically analyze the effect of population aging on human capital investment in China, and then test our theory by conducting an empirical study based on micro household data. We find the following. (1) Theoretically, the OLG model shows that population aging has a crowding-out effect on education investment. (2) Empirically, the results show that the share of education and training expenditures decreases by 5.27 percentage points as the ratio of old people in the household increases by 100 percentage points, which confirms the crowding-out effect of population aging on human capital investment. (3) The crowding-out effect is far more intense on urban households than on rural households since health care expenditures will be greater in urban areas as population aging increases. (4) A quantile regression indicates that the negative effect of population aging on the share of educational expenditure is concentrated in households with higher shares of education expenditures. We confirm the robustness of our results using regional fixed effect and instrumental variable (IV) regressions.     

How Does the Minimum Wage Affect Firm Investments in Fixed and Human Capital? Evidence from China

This paper empirically analyzes the impact of Chinese minimum wage regulations on the firm decision to invest in physical and human capital. We exploit the geographical and inter‐temporal variations of county‐level minimum wages in a panel data set of all state‐owned and all above‐scale non‐state‐owned Chinese firms covering the introduction of the new Chinese minimum wage regulations in 2004. In our basic regressions including all Chinese firms, we find significant negative effects of the minimum wage on human capital investment rates and no overall effects on fixed capital investment rates. When grouping firms by their ownership structure, we find that these results hold for most firms. Foreign‐owned firms are an exception to some extent, because the likelihood that they invest in human capital has not decreased in response to the policy.     

Policy,Demography, and Market Income Volatility: What Shaped Income Distribution and Inequality in Australia Between 2002 and 2016?

Isolating the impact of policy, demographic shifts, and market volatility on changes in income inequality is of great interest to policymakers. However, such estimation can be difficult due to the complex interactions and evolutions in the social and economic environment. Through an extended decomposition framework, this paper estimates the effect of four main components (policy, demography, market income and other factors) on the year-over-year changes in income inequality in Australia between 2002 and 2016. This was a period marked by substantial policy, population, and economic shifts due to factors such as the mining boom, the global financial crisis and increasing immigration. The framework also incorporates a flexible non-parametric market income model which captures demand-side shock better than a standard parametric model. Our results suggest that market income was the primary driver of income inequality for all segments of the income distribution in Australia over the past 15 years. Policy factors, moreover, have had the largest net impact on reducing inequality overall, especially for lower income earners.     

Can sickness absence be affected by information meetings? Evidence from a social experiment

During the last decade several empirical studies have stressed the importance of norms and social interactions for explaining sickness-absence behavior. In this context, public discussions about the intentions of the insurance, and of the rights and duties of the receivers, may be important for reducing the sickness absence. In this article, we study whether information meetings about the Swedish sickness insurance affect the length of sickness-absence spells. The study is based on experimental data on individuals with weak labor market attachments. The displacement of when the call to the meeting was sent out was randomized. Comparing the survival functions of those called immediately with those whose calls were delayed (by about 30 days) makes it possible to study whether the length of sickness absence is affected by receiving the call earlier. The result suggests that the length is reduced by, on average, 20%. In the long term (12 months later), there is no effect of the information meeting. This suggests that attendance to the information meeting does not change individuals’ long-term behavior.     

Do Current Account Forecasters Herd? Evidence from the Euro Area and the G7 Countries

Data from the Consensus Economics Forecast Poll is used to analyze how current account forecasters form expectations. The results suggest that forecasts do not satisfy traditional unbiasedness and orthogonality criteria for forecast rationality. In addition, this paper finds anti‐herding behavior among forecasters for the euro area and G7 countries. It also shows that the cross‐sectional heterogeneity with regard to anti‐herding is associated with cross‐sectional heterogeneity in forecast accuracy. More specifically, this paper finds some evidence indicating that forecasters who tend to herd provide more accurate forecasts than their colleagues who follow an anti‐herding strategy.     

Inequality and growth: What comes from the different inequality measures?

The objective of the paper is to verify if income inequality impedes the growth rates in OECD countries in the period of 1990–2014 and to reveal whether the choice of the income inequality measure determines the sign and the strength of the estimated relationship. We use system GMM to estimate parameters of a dynamic panel growth model. The research indicates that income inequality negatively affects economic growth. We also find evidence that various measures of inequality bring the different scale of consequences for economic growth, with measures that give more weight to the middle part of the distribution being the weakest predictor of GDP growth. Simultaneously, we present the test of weak instruments, which helps to explain these differences.     

The Effect of Market Structure on Banks’ Profitability and Stability: Evidence from ASEAN-5 Countries

This paper analyses the effect of market structure on profitability and stability using the sample of 130 commercial banks in ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand) over the period from 2001 to 2013. More specifically, this study investigates the relevance of the structure conduct performance (SCP) and the relative market power (RMP) hypotheses. This paper also examines the relevance of ‘concentration-stability’ and ‘concentration-fragility’ hypotheses in the case of ASEAN-5 banking. In doing so, we control for the effect of bank-specific and country-specific factors. Empirical results based on system-generalised method of moments (GMM) analyses support the RMP hypothesis but fail to support the SCP hypothesis. We find that concentration stabilizes the banking sector. Evidence also highlights the importance of bank-specific controls related to capitalization and costs on profitability and stability. Implications for policy-makers are addressed.     

CO2 Emissions and Income Dynamics: What Does the Global Evidence Tell Us?

This paper analyzes the co-evolution of two major determinants of social welfare, namely, income and carbon emissions. In particular, by using a distribution dynamics approach based on Markov chains, we investigate the shape and behavior of the joint distribution of per-capita income and carbon dioxide emissions. We arrive at several interesting conclusions, especially in the context of international negotiations on climate change. First, evidence does not support theoretical models predicting the existence of a poverty-environment trap. Specifically, in the long-run two main groups of countries will emerge: poor versus polluting countries. Second, the typical development path leads initially to high emission levels and, subsequently, to high income. Third, the convergence process towards the stationary distribution is very slow. Finally, for carbon emissions, whenever it is observed, the environmental Kuznets curve seems to be only a transitory phenomenon.     

The Political Economy of Real Exchange Rate Behavior: Theory and Empirical Evidence for Developed and Developing Countries, 1960–2010

Empirical results of testing the PPP hypothesis have constantly shown that relative prices do not converge to the same level, either in the short or the long run. Therefore, the PPP explanation of the real exchange rate does not provide a reasonable measure of competitiveness at the international level. This article puts forth a different approach based on the works of Ricardo, Marx, Harrod and Shaikh. It argues that the real relative unit labor cost is the main factor explaining the long-run behavior of the real exchange rate. The second section of the article explains the theoretical underpinnings of our approach. The third section analyzes the role of the real interest rate differential in explaining real exchange rate misalignments. In the fourth section, we present a graphical analysis of the interrelation among the real effective exchange rate, the real unit labor cost ratio, the short-run real interest rate differential and the trade balance for 16 OECD countries, Taiwan and three developing countries for the period 1960–2010. The fifth section investigates the long-run relationship between the latter three indexes through co-integrating and error correction models using the ARDL–ECM framework. The last section provides our conclusions.     

Can fiscal redistribution undo skill-biased technical change?: Evidence from the French experience

The inequality of labor earnings among working-age individuals has gone up in all western countries during the past 25 years, either through rising wage inequality (US, UK) or through rising unemployment (Continental Europe). Policy regimes did matter a great deal, however, as far as the inequality of disposable income is concerned. In a country like France, transfers to the unemployed were sufficiently massive to prevent income inequality from rising. This paper argues that the way fiscal redistribution has managed to counteract skill-biased technical change in countries like France is somewhat paradoxical. The same distributive stability could have been obtained at a lower cost by following a job subsidies strategy rather than an income maintenance strategy, simply because it is always less costly to have people at work producing something. We explore several potential explanations for this paradox.     

Inequality: The original economic sin of capitalism? An Evaluation of Thomas Piketty's Capital in the twenty-first century

This is a review article of Thomas Piketty's book “Capital in the twenty-first century”. Piketty promotes the old theme that, under capitalism, the rich tend to become richer and the poor become poorer, at least in relative terms. We consider whether the data really shows that wealth and income are becoming more concentrated; the role of income transfers (Piketty's data is for pre-tax and pre-transfer income) and other influences on inequality such as real estate prices; the implications of social and economic mobility; the role of the state in fostering inequality; and the determination of socially acceptable inequality. We conclude that Piketty has not succeeded in showing that the inequality r > g (the rate of return is greater than the rate of growth) is the principal determinant of inequality. Piketty offers neither an accompanying theory of social justice nor a theoretical framework to support his case. In particular, lacking is a revealed appreciation of the effects of high marginal tax rates on growth and efficiency.     

Trade and Global Income Inequality with Frictional Labor Markets: A Lesson from the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement

This paper develops a two-country trade model with frictional labor market structures to investigate the link between increased openness to trade and cross-country income inequality. Calibrated to US–Canadian data, the model simulation results show that the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement benefited Canada, the country with relatively higher capital intensity, more due to its capacity to flexibly expand in response to an increase in product demand. The results from counterfactual experiments indicate that increased capital intensity in the US is expected to increase gains from trade in both countries while making the distribution of gains less unequal.     

Combining the minimum-variance and equally-weighted portfolios: Can portfolio performance be improved?

It is documented in the literature that due to estimation errors, mean-variance efficient portfolios deliver no higher out-of-sample Sharpe ratios than does the naïve equally-weighted portfolio (EWP). This paper demonstrates how the out-of-sample performance of the minimum-variance portfolio (MVP) can be improved in the presence of estimation errors by combining the MVP and EWP. Our results indicate that an appropriate combination of the MVP and EWP can enhance Sharpe ratios under any scenarios considered, and can also reduce the portfolio risk if short-selling is allowed. However, the combination strategy is not able to generate a lower risk level than the MVP when a short-selling restriction is imposed. We find that the optimal combination coefficient depends on the factors that greatly impact estimation errors in the MVP, including sample size, estimation method, no-short-selling restriction, and length of the out-of-sample period under consideration.     

Remittances and healthcare expenditure: Human capital investment or responses to shocks? Evidence from Peru

This paper estimates the effect of international remittances on healthcare expenditures, taking into account both the interdependence with other consumption goods and the effects of health shocks. More precisely, we assess whether the budget allocation decisions of remittance‐receiving households reveal different preferences to invest in health capital, even when the simultaneous effect that health shocks may have on the demand of remittances and on other types of nondurable expenditures is accounted for. Using data from the “Peruvian National Survey of Households,” we find that remittances have a positive impact on healthcare budget shares, net of the remittance‐related income effect and independently of the occurrance of a health shock. They also have a positive impact on housing and a negative one on other expenditure items, that is, clothing, transport, and education. Hence, our results indicate a “pure” tendency of remittance‐receiving households to devote larger shares of their budget to health capital investment, rather than to other types of consumption goods.     

The trade-off between agriculture and biodiversity in marginal areas: Can crofting and bumblebee conservation be reconciled?

Crofting is a low intensity agricultural system restricted to the Highlands and Islands of northern Scotland typified by small scale mixed livestock production and rotational cropping activities. As with other low intensity farming systems across Europe, crofting is changing in response to a range of socio-economic factors. This is having a negative impact on the populations of rare bumblebees that are associated with this agricultural system. In this paper we use an ecological-economic modelling approach to examine the likely impacts of introducing two different management options for conserving bumblebees on croft land-use and income. Two linear programming models were constructed to represent the predominant crofting systems found in the Outer Hebrides, and varying constraints on bumblebee abundance were imposed to examine the trade-off between conservation and agricultural incomes. The model outputs illustrate that in some instances it is likely that both agricultural profits and bumblebee densities can be enhanced. We conclude that policy-makers should take into consideration the type of farming system when designing cost-effective agri-environment policies for low intensity farming systems, and that improvements in bee conservation are not necessarily in conflict with maintaining farm income.     

Can government improve tax compliance by adopting advanced information technology? Evidence from the Golden Tax Project III in China

This paper explores the tax compliance effects of adopting advanced information technology by tax bureau. Although many governments adopt advanced information technology in tax collection, little is known about the effect on tax compliance. Using difference-in-differences method, we exploit a staggered reform in which tax authorities adopt a comprehensive information reporting system in China, the Golden Tax Project III. Employing listed firm level data from 2010 to 2017, using book-tax difference and its remaining component which cannot be explained by earnings management as proxy measures of tax sheltering, we find that the adoption of GTP III decreases tax sheltering levels by a 1.88 percentage point. The effect is stronger for companies with higher tax rate. By exploring channels, our results suggest that the effect works by enhancing third-party reporting and by improving tax enforcement capacity in provinces that lack tax inspectors.     

When does funding research by smaller firms bear fruit?: Evidence from the SBIR program*

This paper evaluates whether the relative concentration of funding for small, research-oriented firms in a small number of high-technology industries is related to differences across industries in the appropriability level facing small firms. We exploit a novel test based on the relationship between industry-level private venture financing and the performance of government-subsidized R&D projects. If industries differ in their appropriability level, then private funding and subsidized project performance should be positively correlated. Our principal finding is that subsidized project performance is higher in industrial segments with higher rates of private venture capital investment. Industrial sectors therefore seem to differ in the degree of appropriability and this variation helps explain why venture capital is concentrated. * The latest version of this paper is available at http://www.mbs.edu/home//jgans/research.htm