基于误差修正模型的能源消费与经济增长关系研究

基于误差修正模型理论,从变量的平稳性检验、变量间的因果关系检验、变量间的协整检验和误差修正模型角度,利用我国1978～2009年能源消费总量和国民生产总值数据进行实证研究,建立了能源消费与经济增长之间的长期均衡关系模型和误差修正模型;通过格兰杰因果性检验,表明能源消费与经济增长之间存在单项因果关系。数量关系模型的建立,为合理处理二者之间的关系提供了数理依据。     

Measuring Monetary Policy in Germany: A Structural Vector Error Correction Approach

Abstract. A structural vector error correction (SVEC) model is used to investigate several monetary policy issues. While being data-oriented the SVEC framework allows structural modeling of the short-run and long-run properties of the data. The statistical model is estimated with monthly German data for 1975–98 where a structural break is detected in 1984. After splitting the sample, three stable long-run relations are found in each subsample which can be interpreted in terms of a money-demand equation, a policy rule and a relation for real output, respectively. Since the cointegration restrictions imply a particular shape of the long-run covariance matrix this information can be used to distinguish between permanent and transitory innovations in the estimated system. Additional restrictions are introduced to identify a monetary policy shock.     

财政赤字与经济增长的定量研究

本文通过定量分析指出,财政赤字的增加能否引发通货膨胀关键在于所采取的弥补方式,若采用国债作为弥补方式,则所引起的通货膨胀率小于0.001,同时每一亿元国债将使国内生产总值增加国内生产总值/货币供应量(M1)亿元(1990-2000年的收益均值为1.97亿元);若向银行透支来弥补赤字,其效果大部分为通货膨胀所抵消,每一亿元赤字只能使国内生产总值增加0.67亿元.     

通货膨胀、财政赤字与经济增长

铸币税和通货膨胀税作为政府隐性税收降低了居民可支配收入,通货膨胀与一般性税收之间的时滞对政府总财政税收产生了一定的影响,国内资本市场的不完善和政府对中央银行的直接干预是我国财政赤字和通货膨胀的主要原因,以通货膨胀促进经济增长不仅效果甚微,而且以改变居民经济预期的方式抑制了国内消费需求。     

Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Convergence Approach

This paper estimates dynamic effects of public capital on output per capita. Based on an open economy growth model, I derive a version of the income convergence equation augmented with public capital. This equation is estimated using panel data of United States and Japanese regions. Sensible results are obtained when public capital is disaggregated into components. In both countries, the infrastructure component of public capital turns out to have significantly positive effects. The implied elasticity of output with respect to infrastructure is somewhere around 0.1 to 0.15. This suggests a modest contribution of infrastructure to postwar growth of the two countries.     

税收、财政支出与内生经济增长

构建了基于财政支出、税收的内生经济增长模型,并推导出在给定税收、财政支出政策的变化路径时,经济会达到竞争性分散均衡,税率与经济增长存在倒-U型关系,政府投资性支出与经济增长之间正相关。利用中国省际面板数据进行实证检验显示,在我国经济运行中,总产出、消费、投资、政府投资性支出、税率、利息率、工资水平之间存在长期均衡关系。我国宏观税率为28.63%时达到最优值,政府投资性支出对经济增长率存在正向影响,但不同区域间存在较大差异性。     

China's Fiscal Decentralization and Regional Economic Growth

The present paper applies Lucas's theory of endogenous growth and Stiglitz's theory of local public goods to build an econometric model consisting of five simultaneous equations to study China's fiscal decentralization effects on regional economic growth. The model is estimated by two‐stage least squares using a set of panel data on 31 Chinese provinces during 1996–2005. The estimated results show that China's fiscal decentralization increased the local governments' expenditure on physical infrastructure and education, which led to the rising local physical capital stock and human capital levels, respectively, and then resulted in the growth of regional economies.     

财政分权、转换系数与经济增长

在古典增长模式和内生增长模式下,以往文献多是注重规模因素和供给层面对经济增长的决定作用。事实上,结构因素、需求层面和调控层面对经济增长的决定作用越来越居于主导地位。基于此,本文通过引入转换系数这个概念,构建了一个集规模因素与结构因素、供求力量与调控力量于一体的集成型经济增长模型;通过模型的模拟得出经济体系中的转换系数在现阶段对经济增速的影响最为显著;进而指出企业家是推动经济增长的中坚力量。另外,作为案例,本文综合计量和模拟等数学工具,就SARS对经济的冲击与政府抗击疫情和挽救市场进行了模拟。     

财政支出结构与经济增长关系研究——基于发达国家的经验研究

笔者对13个发达国家1972年～2006年的面板数据进行了实证研究,结果显示:资本性(经常性)支出对经济增长率有负(正)效应,这与以往许多学者所认为的财政的资本性支出较之经常性支出对经济增长更有贡献的观点是相左的。其次,财政支出规模、私人固定投资以及外汇黑市溢价对经济增长也有着显著的影响。本研究对于在平衡预算下的财政支出结构决策有现实指导意义。     

Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: the Role of Financial Intermediation

This paper analyzes the impact of public debt on financial efficiency in an overlapping‐generations model. We argue that public debt may reduce intermediation costs by increasing the collateral of entrepreneurs. This effect is stronger, the stronger the non‐Ricardian component of public debt, i.e. the more it is associated with intergenerational redistribution. This effect can be interpreted as future generations acting as a guarantee for the loans provided to the entrepreneurs of the current generation. Furthermore, multiple growth paths may arise as low taxes increase private collateral, which in turn boosts growth via financial efficiency, while higher growth allows to maintain the same debt/GDP ratio with reduced taxes.     

协整分析与误差修正模型--从增长率看民营企业进出口对我国经济增长的影响

作者在计算民营企业净出口对我国经济增长的贡献度和贡献率,以及对1994年-2005年民营企业进、出口和我国 GDP数据进行协整分析的基础上,根据格兰杰定理运用EG两步法建立三者间的误差修正模型。实证分析表明从增长率的角度来看,民营企业进、出口对我国经济增长的促进作用非常显著。     

Banks' Inefficiency and Economic Growth: A Micro‐Macro Approach

This paper offers a methodological contribution to the empirical analysis of the relationship between banking and economic growth by suggesting a new indicator for the state of development of the banking system based on a measure of bank microeconomic efficiency. This choice helps to overcome the problem of causality and to capture the effects of banks' activity on growth. This new approach is then applied to analyse the relationship between the banking system and economic growth in the Italian regions, through a dynamic panel technique. The empirical results show the existence of an independent effect exerted by the efficiency of banks on regional growth.     

我国新一轮经济增长要求适时调整积极财政政策

我国实施六年之久的积极财政政策在国民经济增长的数量效应方面效果显著,而在质量效应方面却有待商榷。适时调整积极财政政策,提高其在促进国民经济增长质量方面的效应应是财政政策未来的取向。     

Fiscal limits in developing countries: A DSGE Approach

This paper studies fiscal limits in developing countries using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach. Distributions of fiscal limits, which measure a government’s capacity to service its debt, are simulated based on macroeconomic uncertainty and fiscal policy. The analysis shows that expected future revenue plays an important role in explaining the low fiscal limits of developing countries, relative to those of developed countries. Large devaluation of real exchange rates can significantly reduce a government’s capacity to service its debt and lower the fiscal limits. Temporary disturbances, therefore, can shift the distribution of fiscal limits and suddenly change perceptions about fiscal sustainability.     

The Impact of Fiscal and Other Economic Freedoms on Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis

This empirical study investigates the impacts on economic growth of reduced fiscal freedom from both the taxing and spending sides. After controlling for nominal long term interest rates, net exports, federal government budget deficits, and other factors, panel two stage least squares estimations using a 4-year panel data set for the OECD nations as a group reveals that reduced fiscal freedom leads to a reduced rate of economic growth; furthermore, it is found that reduced freedom from excessive government size also leads to a reduced rate of economic growth.     

Debt and Economic Growth in the European Union: A Panel Granger Causality Approach

This paper contributes to empirical investigation of the causality relationships between real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and the growth of three debt categories, namely public, foreign and private debt, in the universe of the 28 European Union (EU) countries during the past decade. Using panel Granger causality estimations, we find statistically relevant bidirectional causality relationships between public debt and economic growth for the periods both before and after the outbreak of the recent financial crisis. Moreover, there is clear evidence of economic growth’s contribution to decreasing public debt.     

我国地区经济增长与其财政收入增长逆向变动格局研究

一般来说,随着经济的发展,宏观税负水平会逐步提高,但我国的宏观税负水平却是随着经济的发展而逐步降低。而且,在这个下降的过程中,东部地区的下降幅度要比中西部地区快得多。通过对各地区税收增长系数、ＧＤＰ和财政收入增长情况的比较,还发现,我国东部地区的经济增长远快于中西部地区,而财政收入的增长却是中西部地区快于东部地区。     

中国财政赤字构成与财政政策效应

本文在财政赤字分解的传统两缺口模型基础之上,建立财政赤字构成的三缺口理论模型,并据此对 1992—2003年间中国财政赤字进行分解,进而运用实际分解结果,建立中国经济波动的政策响应函数,描述和阐释中国财政支出政策的经济稳定效应。