Estimating Nonlinear DSGE Models with Moments Based Methods

This article suggests a new approach to approximating moments for nonlinear DSGE models. This approach is fast and sufficiently accurate to estimate nonlinear DSGE models. A small financial DSGE model is repeatedly estimated by several modifications of the suggested approach. Approximations of the moments are close to the results of the large sample Monte Carlo estimation. The quality of parameter estimation using our suggested approach is close to the Central Difference Kalman Filter (CDKF); and our suggested approach is much faster.     

Robust goal programming for multi-objective portfolio selection problem

This paper proposes a robust optimization model for the portfolio selection problem that uses a goal programming (GP) approach. In GP, decision makers can achieve more than one objective function. Some uncertain coefficients exist in both single and multi-objective models of the portfolio selection problem, which affects the feasibility and optimality of solutions. Robust optimization is an approach that deals with the uncertainty parameters in mathematical models, and guarantees the feasibility of the solutions. This paper tries to address the uncertainty parameters with robust optimization approach. This paper presents GP for the portfolio selection problem and addresses the uncertainty of the parameters by use of robust optimization approach. The approach is illustrated by a numerical example.     

Allocative efficiency measurement revisited—Do we really need input prices?

The traditional approach to measuring allocative efficiency exploits input prices, which are rarely known at the firm level. This paper proves allocative efficiency can be measured as a profit-oriented distance to the frontier in a profit-technical efficiency space. This new approach does not require information on input prices. To validate the new approach, we perform a Monte-Carlo experiment providing evidence that the estimates of allocative efficiency employing the new and the traditional approach are highly correlated. Finally, as an illustration, we apply the new approach to a sample of about 900 enterprises from the chemical manufacturing industry in Germany.     

A Syntactic Approach to Knowledge in Finite Games of Perfect Information

In this paper I present a syntactic approach to modeling the interactive knowledge of rationality in finite games of perfect information. This approach allows for a more transparent interpretation. In particular, we have the intuitive picture of viewing knowledge as the input and decisions as the output of a player’s deliberation. This distinction is blurred in the semantic state-space approach.     

Semiparametric Bayesian estimation of mixed count regression models

This paper develops semiparametric Bayesian estimation approach for Poisson regression models with unobserved heterogeneity of unknown density. This approach is computationally efficient and allows automatic adaptation of the approximating density to data during estimation. Simulations show the estimator performs well.     

Estimating labour market transitions and continuations using repeated cross sectional data

This paper proposes a population cohort approach for estimating labour market continuations (or transitions) using repeated cross sectional data. This approach allows for the construction of consistent standard errors that account for the full variability of cross sectional data.     

EFFECT OF FIRM ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE ON INCENTIVES TO ENGAGE IN PRICE FIXING

This article examines price fixing and bid rigging by applying the theory of the economics of crime to explain the calculus of the individual decision maker in the firm. This approach departs somewhat from the traditional approach to investigations of collusion. The latter has emphasized market structure and firm interrelationships while it has ignored the characteristics of the firm itself. But analyses ignoring firm organizational and financial structure are incomplete insomuch as these factors are crucial to the incentives and costs that the decision maker confronts. This paper offers an alternative approach in which price-fixing and bid-rigging offenders' prominent characteristics apparently are mirrored in defendant firms and individuals that the Antitrust Division has prosecuted recentlv.     

Monopoly Power and Stagflation

Post Keynesian economists have followed Joan Robinson's criticism of general equilibrium theory as abolishing history by allowing all contracts to be executed today for all future contingencies. This was the justification for the support of financial innovation to provide for the completeness of futures markets. The recent crisis has shown that force of history. Instead, many evolutionary and Keynesian economists have suggested the approach of cumulative causation as an approach that includes history and eschews equilibrium. This approach may provide a way to take history seriously in economic analysis.     

总量贫困测度研究述评

本文系统地评述过去一百年来有关总量贫困测度的研究,目的在于总结贫困测度方法的主要发展线索和理论成果,为中国的贫困研究奠定基础。文章重点讨论了基于公理方法、福利方法的贫困测度和多维度的贫困测度,分析了各种贫困指数的构造、优缺点和适用性。文章最后探讨了总量贫困测度几种方法之间的关系,并研究了中国如何构建和选择科学合理的贫困指数问题。     

收益法及其在企业价值评估中的相关问题研究

收益法有关的数量模型在理财、金融投资等领域的理论与实践都已被认为是一种既比较科学又具有较强的可操作性的计量模型。但是,在评估理论与实践中,它仍有不少问题需要进一步探讨。本文就收益法的产生、发展及其计量基本模型,收益法与现金流折现法的关系,收益法在企业价值评估中存在的有关问题等进行了探讨。本文在参考有关资本价值模型思路相关文献的基础上,以企业价值分别是由投资和取得收益所构成的基本假设下推导出一种新的计量表达式,试图弥补之前收益法的计量表达式对收益期有限的评估不能计算其期末资产余值的不足。     

Ranking Journals Following a Matching Model Approach: An Application to Public Economics Journals

Journal rankings based on citation indexes are widely used in the economics field. This paper proposes an alternative way to rank journals based on the publishing behavior of top‐ranked authors. I justify this approach by depicting the scientific publishing market as following a matching process. Compared with the citation approach, the methodology that we propose has advantages in terms of time effort to produce national and subdiscipline rankings. It also corrects the impact underestimation that the citation approach tends to produce in new and re‐founded journals. This paper proposes an empirical application to the case of public economics journals.     

An Efficiency Approach to the Evaluation of Policy Changes

This paper describes an efficiency approach to the evaluation of policy changes. Rather than comparing the utility allocations that arise before and after a policy change is introduced, this approach evaluates a policy change by comparing it with other possible changes which might be made from the status quo. The main merit of the approach is that it is founded on the Pareto criterion rather than on a distributional value judgement. The paper provides a precise statement of the approach and applies it to a number of examples. Some objections to the approach are also anticipated and discussed.     

Editorial comment : Our clientele

Obtaining a reliable estimate of the upper limit of the market share that a technology can capture is a major limitation in forecasting the diffusion of new technologies. This paper offers a decision-modeling approach to estimate this upper limit. The approach requires the prospective adopter's value judgments about various decision factors that affect the technology. The approach can be incorporated in any forecasting/substitution model that uses an upper limit. A real world application of the approach is included, dealing with the diffusion of Longwall Mining technologies in the United States. Some extensions of the basic approach are also discussed.     

Building Bridges Between Structural and Program Evaluation Approaches to Evaluating Policy

This paper compares the structural approach to economic policy analysis with the program evaluation approach. It offers a third way to do policy analysis that combines the best features of both approaches. We illustrate the value of this alternative approach by making the implicit economics of LATE explicit, thereby extending the interpretability and range of policy questions that LATE can answer.     

面向产品创新要求的协同创新客户选择

现有协同创新客户选择方法主要从客户自身特点出发,未充分考虑产品创新要求的影响。鉴于此,提出了综合考虑产品创新要求和客户自身特点的协同创新客户选择方法,建立了产品创新要求和选择协同创新客户的指标之间的质量屋模型;基于模糊加权平均法和-截集确定评价指标权重,实现了指标权重随不同产品创新要求的动态调整;基于粗数方法提出了客户数量较多情况下确定客户在各指标上评价值的方法,计算客户评价值。案例分析结果表明,该方法具有合理性和可行性。     

REGIONAL IMPACTS OF AIR QUALITY REGULATION: APPLYING AN ECONOMIC MODEL

The South Coast Air Quality Management District promulgated an Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP) in 1989 so as to attain federal air quality standards for the South Coast Air Basin by the year 2007. Because the AQMP affects all walks of life, its economic impact has become the focal point of debates. This paper examines not only the traditional approach to evaluating the direct cost of a public policy change on the regulated community, but also a systematic approach to assessing direct and indirect impacts of such policy change. This latter approach will enhance the decisionmaking process by allowing one to compare the impacts of various projects in the same context.     

Effects of Public Job Training Programmes on the Employment Outcome of Displaced Workers: Results of a Matching Analysis,a Fixed Effects Model and an Instrumental Variable Approach Using Korean Data

This study employs the matching method, the fixed effects model and the instrumental variable (IV) approach to estimate the employment effect of training programmes on displaced workers in Korea. The results of the matching and logit analyses suggest a positive training effect on employment. However, the fixed effects model showed a substantial reduction in the estimated training effect and the IV approach showed no training effect. This provides clear evidence of positive selection into training. The results of the IV approach suggest that training favoured male and educated workers, whereas female, less educated and older workers were disadvantaged by training programmes.     

Reconciling Household Surveys and National Accounts Data Using a Cross Entropy Estimation Method

This paper presents an approach to reconciling household surveys and national accounts data. The problem is how to use the information provided by the national accounts data to re-estimate the household weights used in the survey so that the survey results are consistent with the aggregate data. The estimation approach uses an estimation criterion based on an entropy measure of information. The survey household weights are treated as a prior. New weights are estimated that are close to the prior and that are also consistent with the additional information. This approach is implemented to reconcile household survey data and macro data for Madagascar. The results indicate that the approach is powerful and flexible, supporting the efficient use of information from a variety of sources to reconcile data at different levels of aggregation in a consistent framework.     

资本弱化税制的比较分析及对我国的启示

本文对正常交易法和固定比例法两种规制资本弱化税制进行了比较研究后认为,正常交易法由于依据个案进行判断,因而精确和公正,但却以牺牲法律效率为前提;固定比例法虽然具有任意性和不精确性的特点,但其提高了企业的预见性,节约了税务机关的行政成本和纳税人的奉行成本,具有法律的效率优势。而后,分析了构造固定比例法四个要素。在此基础上,对我国目前资本弱化税制现状进行了分析,并提出了完善的方向。     

Health care economics: An ethical analysis

This paper traces the origins of the rights approach in non-hierarchized, capitalist United States to the era of enlightenment. A third Ethical approach, equality for all and excellence as an ideal, is proposed and justified.