Productivity Performance of Export Market Entry and Exit: Evidence from Indian Firms

This paper contributes to the literature on exporting and firm productivity, focusing on export entry (efficiency), learning (post‐entry growth) and exit (inefficiency) by Indian firms. Drawing on 7000 firms during 1989–2009, our main objective is to examine the effect of exporting on firm productivity, correcting for selection bias using propensity‐score matching, which allows a “like‐for‐like” comparison between new exporters and nonexporters. Robust to different matching estimators, we find evidence of learning‐by‐exporting that new exporters acquire rapid productivity growth after entry, relative to nonexporters. We also find that (1) exporters are more productive than nonexporters; (2) productive firms tend to self‐select in entering the exporting market, and (3) least productive exporters are found to exit the export market as they experience adverse productivity effect prior to the year of exit. Our robust result on learning‐by‐exporting suggests that entering export market does appear to be a channel explaining the Indian recent growth miracle.     

Dynamics of Export Market Entry and Exit*

We apply discrete time duration models to explain the duration until new plants start to export and the duration until exit from the export markets, using data on Finnish manufacturing plants. Plants that are large, young, highly productive, and with high‐capital intensity are likely to enter the export market earlier and to survive in the export market longer. Foreign ownership increases chances of export entry, especially for small and low human capital plants, and decreases the risk of export failure for large, high‐productivity plants. The upper and lower tails of the productivity distribution are represented by plants that start exporting and those that are exiting, respectively.     

沉淀成本、通货紧缩与国企战略退出

文章在放松新古典竞争理论假设前提的基础上,结合我国体制转轨的初始条件--产业结构扭曲的特点,通过引入生产要素沉淀成本来分析通货紧缩产生的原因.由于我国大型国有企业自身缺乏比较优势,在竞争中也很容易产生亏损,同时又因国有企业的固定资本投资的沉淀成本显著而无法退出市场,造成过度竞争,进而使价格下降,利润率下降,投资减少,形成我国当前的通货紧缩,因此从沉淀成本角度提出治理有关通货紧缩的政策处方,能有效地实施国有企业的战略退出以及降低沉淀成本数量.     

Sunk Costs, Market Access, Economic Integration, and Welfare

The nature of the equilibrium that arises after economic integration is shown to depend crucially on how initial entry costs are divided along two separate dimensions: market access versus technology costs, and fixed versus sunk costs. There are three post-integration equilibrium regimes: a traditional trade theory regime which arises when both market access costs and fixed costs are small, a new trade theory regime which arises when market access costs are small but fixed costs are high, and a market access regime which arises when market access costs are high. While the first two regimes have already appeared in the literature, the third is new. The sign, magnitude, and qualitative behavior of the welfare effects of integration across all three regimes depend on the configuration of these costs.     

企业生产率、国外市场知识与企业出口额

本文运用企业异质性贸易理论,利用分行业上市企业的面板数据,将企业规模作为控制变量,研究了企业生产率、国外市场知识与中国企业出口额的关系。结果显示:企业生产率和国外市场知识对企业出口额的影响显著为正,影响效果存在行业差异;作为控制变量的企业规模,对企业出口额的影响存在不确定性,或正向相关或负向相关或呈U形关系。     

出口、异质性与企业生产率——来自中国企业层面的证据

文章基于自我选择效应和出口中学效应假说,利用中国企业面板数据,从超越对数生产函数出发,纳入出口状态变量,分别采用固定效应估计、系统广义矩估计和Olley-Pakes半参数估计法克服潜在的同步性偏差和选择偏差问题,在从微观角度充分控制企业异质性的背景下,深入考察出口行为与我国企业生产率之间的作用机理。研究发现,出口企业的生产率相对非出口企业高出20%-30%左右,我国出口贸易存在显著的出口中学效应;而对自我选择效应的检验结果警示,本土企业以低劳动力成本而非高生产率作为出口竞争优势切入全球价值链低端,转变贸易增长方式是保证中国开放经济长期可持续增长的重要保障。     

工资、生产效率与企业出口——基于单位劳动力成本的分析

在劳动力供给下降、工资逐年上涨的背景下,生产效率提高的幅度超过工资上涨的幅度会导致单位劳动力成本的下降,这意味着制造业整体竞争力得以提升,从而可以激励工业企业更重视国内市场的开拓.文章综合工资和生产率因素,以单位劳动力成本衡量企业的竞争力,基于1998-2007年中国工业企业的面板数据,研究了单位劳动力成本对制造业企业出口密集度的影响.面板固定效应模型和Tobit模型的估计结果显示,单位劳动力成本对企业出口密集度存在显著的正向影响,即单位劳动力成本的下降会抑制企业出口,企业会降低出口密集度并增加产品在国内市场的份额.Heckman选择模型两步法也表明,单位劳动力成本对企业出口的集约边际和扩展边际均存在显著的正向影响,单位劳动力成本下降会导致企业减少出口倾向和出口密集度.     

企业异质性、贸易自由化与市场扭曲

即使没有任何政策干预,市场本身的不完全也可能导致扭曲。本文在企业异质性框架下,构建包含Behrens类型需求结构的垄断竞争一般均衡模型,研究贸易自由化对市场扭曲程度的影响。通过比较静态分析,发现贸易自由化(市场规模扩张或者贸易成本下降)并没有减缓市场扭曲,这是因为,贸易自由化导致市场均衡福利和社会最优福利上升幅度相同。此外,随着一个经济体平均生产率的上升,会出现市场均衡福利上升和市场扭曲程度加剧并存的局面。进一步研究发现,理论模型得到的一般性结论同样适用于中国。本文的政策含义是,产业政策和贸易政策应该协调使用;随着一个经济体平均生产率的上升,产业政策的重要性加强。     

开发区与企业动态成长机制*--基于企业进入、退出和增长的研究

开发区的高速增长到底是源自寻求“政策租”所导致的短期“虚假繁荣”,还是通过集聚效应推动企业迅速成长而形成的长期表现？回答好这一问题,对于开发区政策的效果评价和进一步完善至关重要。然而,现有研究对此却语焉不详。文章在识别开发区企业的基础上,实证检验了开发区对企业进入、退出和成长的作用,以及开发区增长效应的可持续性,揭示了开发区影响地区经济增长的微观机制。研究发现：(1)开发区会吸引高效率企业进入,并降低开发区内企业的退出风险,从而使得开发区内净进入企业数目显著增加,这意味着开发区政策是吸引企业入驻并加强集聚经济的重要因素;(2)开发区显著提高了企业的就业增长、生产率增长和销售增长,这表明开发区政策和集聚经济的增长效应十分明显;(3)企业“入驻”开发区初期,“政策租”带来了短期的快速增长,而开发区内自我加强的集聚经济对企业成长具有长期的促进作用,这说明开发区的增长效应具有可持续性。文章肯定了开发区实践对企业动态成长的长期积极影响,这不仅为开发区政策绩效的评估提供了更为全面的认识,而且也为开发区的进一步发展和完善提供了重要启示。     

Bank Credit,Firm Entry and Exit,and Economic Fluctuations in China

This study explores how a worsening bank credit quality affects firms＇ entry and exit decisions （i.e., changes in the extensive margin）, and how the extensive margin variation amplifies the transmission of financial and technological shocks to the real economy. Using a vector autoregression （VAR） model, our empirical evidence indicates that deteriorating Chinese bank credit conditions have a significant negative influence on net firm entry to the market. To explore the potential mechanism behind the stylized fact, we establish a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium （DSGE） model featuring fixed production costs, loss-related bank credit quality shocks and an endogenous balance sheet constraint which restricts the aggregate credit supply by the level of the banks＇ net worth. Model simulations indicate that the interaction of financial constraints and the extensive margin variation amplifies the impact of bank credit shocks on the real economy. When banks experience loss-related financial shocks, bank credit tightens, which increases firms＇ external financing costs. When the firms＇ expected income is not sufficient to cover the fixed production cost, some firms exit from or stop entering the market. As a result, the economy displays a severe recession and a slow recovery.     

Entry and Exit in International Markets: Evidence from Chilean Data*

Several studies examine the patterns and determinants of entry and exit in manufacturing industries. Not much work exists on entry and exit in international markets. This paper uses Chilean data to analyze the industry‐level determinants of entry and exit in export markets. First, we show as stylized facts that entry and exit rates differ across industries, vary over time, and are positively correlated. Then, we study the main determinants of these patterns. Our econometric analysis shows that within‐industry heterogeneity, measured by differences in productivity or other firm characteristics, has a significant effect on plant turnover in international markets. Our findings reveal that trade costs, factor intensities, and fluctuations in the real exchange rate play a minor role explaining entry and exit. This last result is consistent with hysteresis in international markets.     

Market Access,Export Performance and Survival: Evidence from Peruvian Firms

This paper explores the effect of market access on firms' export performance and their survival in foreign markets. The data used covers all Peruvian exporting firms between 2002 and 2008, a period during which Peru was active in joining the global economy. This is done using two indices, one that summarizes the tariffs faced by exporters, the other that measures the preferential margin at the bilateral level. Results show that more than market access conditions per se, it is market access conditions relative to those faced by competitors that significantly influences export performance and survival. About a fifth of the increase of exports directed to Mercosur countries is due to improvement in preference margins.     

Market efficiency and international diversification: Evidence from India

This study evaluates one of the most important emerging markets, India (Bombay Stock Exchange and Indian National Exchange), for its efficiency and for its potential to offer diversification benefits to international investors. Market-wide tests include; 1) contemporaneous relationship, 2) Granger type causality and 3) day-of-the-week effect. Tests on individual Indian stocks include: 1) panel estimation of Granger causality, 2) stock-by-stock estimation of Granger causality and 3) runs test. In sum, Indian markets are well integrated with the international equity markets, a characteristic that lowers the international diversification benefits. While day-of-the-week effect is an international spillover, it may be possible to predict individual Indian stocks' returns through causality with international equity markets and through momentum trading techniques.     

企业规模、市场结构与创新——来自不同行业的经验证据

本文利用2000~2003中国工业统计数据,选取其中的五个行业(电子、纺织、服装、化学和机械行业),研究企业规模、产业集中度等与创新的关系的行业差异。研究发现,企业规模、市场结构与创新之间一般不存在简单的线性关系。在不同的行业,它可以表现为U型或倒U型曲线。这种产业之间的差异表明,我们不能单纯地根据与企业规模有关的特性来解释企业创新。而对于产业结构,我们需要进行更加具体细致的调查和分析。单纯的产业集中度指标不足以完全反映产业的真实状况。     

农民投资、沉淀成本与制度安排

在我国经济体制转轨时期,农民逐渐成为真正的市场经济主体,自负盈亏,自主经营。在一定程度上,农民的经济活动不仅直接影响我国农业的可持续发展,而且还影响农民的收入水平及其在国民经济中的基础地位。这里运用一个动态的投资模型,分析沉淀成本对农民投资行为的影响,并提出解决"三农"问题的根本处方:力争完善市场制度和非市场制度,提高农业生产要素的流动性,降低其沉淀成本。     

高新技术产业投资、沉淀成本与补偿制度创新

高新技术产业投资对我国国民经济发展具有重要的作用和潜在的扩张力,但由于没有充分利用高新技术产业投资,严重影响国民经济的整体发展.为此,本文从沉淀成本角度出发,使用一个动态的投资模型,探讨高新技术产业投资所面临的障碍以及提供刺激高新技术产业投资的基本原则,在于完善投资成本补偿机制:一方面,需要大力完善市场制度;另一方面,更需要大力完善非市场制度,同时,政府折旧和税收政策等也是不可替代的.     

改善民生是中国城乡统筹改革实践的原动力

民生是中国城乡统筹改革实践的原动力。改革起始期,是民生呼唤下的自发改革与政策调整;改革深入期,是民生推动下的体制转轨与制度创新;改革攻坚期,是民生引导下的统筹发展与新农村建设。30年农村改革历程,致使民生问题的不断解决与改革的渐进式节奏相互吻合,推动着"人本"式的农村改革健康有序地发展。     

政府控制、治理环境与公司价值--来自中国证券市场的经验证据

本文承袭刘芍佳、孙霈和刘乃全( 2 0 0 3 )一文所使用的“终极产权论”,根据上市公司披露的终极控制人数据,首次将上市公司细分为非政府控制(即民营、乡镇或外资资本控制)、县级政府控制、市级政府控制、省级政府控制以及中央政府控制这五种类型。同时,我们利用樊纲和王小鲁( 2 0 0 3 )编制的中国各地区市场化进程数据及其子数据构建各地区公司治理环境指数。在此基础上,我们以2 0 0 1年至2 0 0 3年期间的上市公司为样本,对政府控制、治理环境与公司价值的关系进行了实证分析。研究发现,政府控制尤其是县级和市级政府控制对公司价值产生了负面影响,但公司所处治理环境的改善有助于减轻这种负面影响。其政策含义是,解决中国上市公司的公司治理问题,不仅需要继续“抓大放小”,还需要从根本上改善公司治理环境。对研究者来说,需要把目光转移到影响公司治理的根本因素上来,加强对公司治理环境的分析。     

中国A股IPO融资成本差异:民营、国有上市公司的证据

基于中国A股市场1999-2008年企业IPO样本数据,中国A股市场不论是民营上市公司还是国有上市公司,IPO融资成本中的隐性成本影响权重均强于显性成本。但两类企业首次公开发行股票时,其融资成本数量、结构和影响因素均存在明显差异;而发行前的盈利性指标、发行时二级市场投资者非理性行为等,对国有上市公司和民营上市公司也有不同程度的影响。同时,朝市场化方向改革的IPO发行制度和定价机制,减弱了民营上市公司和国有上市公司承担的折价费用和融资总成本,以及两者间的差距。     

沉淀成本、跨国公司与政府经济政策选择

如果跨国公司投资没有沉淀成本，无论东道国实行什么样的经济政策，跨国公司都会很自由地进出该国；但如果跨国公司投资有沉淀成本，尽管东道国实行硬经济政策获取大部分经济剩余，但跨国公司就会将产品的生产与销售转移到软经济政策的国家。在现实生活中，由于跨国公司的投资具有沉淀性，此时，国家之间为了吸引跨国公司的投资在经济政策方面的竞争将会促进跨国公司的发展，从而带来整个世界经济福利水平的提高。