基金投资业绩被市场边缘化——基金绩效分析

一、行情突来涨势如虹2010年10月份股票市场大幅上扬,在短短的16个交易日中,上证综合指数上涨12.17%,收于2978.84点,盘中曾突破3000点,沪深300指数上涨15.14%,深证成分指数上涨16.56%,中小板指     

基于板块现象的基金行业投资研究

一、证券投资基金行业现状及板块现象研究 我国股市从2006年探底后进入了一轮盛况空前的大牛市,上证综合指数一举攻下2000点直至5000点的大关,9月28日更是冲至5552.30点,两年间涨幅超过了400%.     

中国股市走"牛"说明了什么

2006年末上证综合指数收盘于2675点,比2005年末的收盘1161点上涨了1514点,全年涨幅130.4%.     

大盘直上3000 热点此起彼伏

上周深沪大盘呈现加速上攻的态势,一周涨幅分别达到7.41%和5.47%,双双以中阳线报收,成交量继续放大;其中上证综合指数强势突破3000点整数大关,并创出3088.86点的行情新高;深成指也相应创出12261.91点的本轮行情新高。截至目前,上证综合指数从去年10月底的1664.93点     

上证综合指数一月效应的实证分析

对于市场异象的研究持续了很长时间,而本文利用2000年至2012年9月份的上证综合指数每日收益率作为样本数据,运用虚拟变量检验中国股市的一月效应,得出结论：上证综合指数的一月效应不是很显著。     

系统大幅风险释放 提高股票基金配置比例——基金业绩评价

一、股票市场再遭重挫2010年5月份股票市场再度重挫,上证综合指数下跌9.70%,收于2592.15点,沪深300指数下跌9.59%,深证成分指数下跌8.59%,继4月份的大幅调整之后,再创新低。在房地产调控政策逐级     

基于GDP与波浪理论的上证综指预测

我国证券市场的发展变化,可以通过指数的走势来反应,而上证综合指数的走势,短期很难判断其变化方向,让广大投资者无所适从。本文试图通过分析我国经济的发展速度,来分析GDP与股票价格的关系,以及运用波浪理论对上证综合指数进行分析和预测,力图从宏观上给广大中小投资者一个正确的判断。通过分析,到2020年,上证综合指数将达到10000点左右。这一结论指明了中国证券市场的发展方向,对广大中小投资者的投资与决策,具有十分重要的现实意义和深远的历史意义。     

基于GDP与波浪理论的上证综指预测

我国证券市场的发展变化,可以通过指数的走势来反应．而上证综合指数的走势,短期很难判断其变化方向,让广大投资者无所适从。本文试图通过分析我国经济的发展速度．来分析GDP与股票价格的关系,以及运用波浪理论对上证综合指数进行分析和预测．力图从宏观上给广大中小投资者一个正确的判断。通过分析,到2020年,上证综合指数将达到10000点左右。这一结论指明了中国证券市场的发展方向。对广大中小投资者的投资与决策,具有十分重要的现实意义和深远的历史意义。     

B股井喷:好戏刚刚上演

投资B股,在2001年以前只限于限于境外投资者。2001年2月份,证监会允许境内投资者参与,消息出来之后导致B股大涨,3个多月时间,上证B股指数从80多点飙升到240点。当年6月1日,B股市场正式全面向境内投资者开放,上证B股指数创下了     

基于VaR的我国股市市场风险度量

本文基于EGARcH-t模型,利用VaR方法分析计算了从1997年1月2日到2009年4月3日的我国股市上证综合指数的市场风险价值,度昔了该时期不同阶段上证综合指数的市场风险状况.     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.