A Free Entry and Exit Experiment

Fels reports on the writing of student papers in a macroeconomic seminar for undergraduates majoring in economics. In addition to obvious benefits to students, there were high ratings from the participants for the instructor.     

市场集中度与产能过剩

提高市场集中度一直被认为是化解产能过剩的重要手段之一,但现有理论与实证研究并未对二者之间的关系给出明确结论.本文在梳理和总结相关文献的基础上,利用2003-2011年15个重工业行业的数据,通过建立面板数据模型对产能利用率与市场集中度之间的关系进行了经验分析.检验结果表明,产能利用率和市场集中度之间存在非线性的倒“U”型关系,即随着市场集中度的提高,产能利用率呈现先上升后下降的变化趋势,这一结果对于有效化解产能过剩具有参考意义.     

Dynamics of Export Market Entry and Exit*

We apply discrete time duration models to explain the duration until new plants start to export and the duration until exit from the export markets, using data on Finnish manufacturing plants. Plants that are large, young, highly productive, and with high‐capital intensity are likely to enter the export market earlier and to survive in the export market longer. Foreign ownership increases chances of export entry, especially for small and low human capital plants, and decreases the risk of export failure for large, high‐productivity plants. The upper and lower tails of the productivity distribution are represented by plants that start exporting and those that are exiting, respectively.     

Endogenous Entry and Exit in Common Value Auctions

We develop and experimentally test a model of endogenous entry, exit, and bidding in common value auctions. The model and experimental design include an alternative profitable activity (a safe haven) that provides agentspecific opportunity costs of bidding in the auction. Each agent chooses whether to accept the safe haven income or forgo it in order to bid in the auction. Agents that enter the auction receive independently-drawn private signals that provide unbiased estimates of the common value. The auctioned item is allocated to the high bidder at a price that is equal to the high bid. Thus the market is a first-price sealed-bid common value auction with endogenous determination of market size.     

可转换证券与风险投资的最优退出决策

风险企业家和风险资本家,对于风险投资的退出方式的偏好由于双方利益的冲突从而出现不完全一致,风险投资主体双方以可转换证券为融资工具,利用可转换证券所具备的控制权相机转移的特性,可以最大限度地实现风险投资退出的帕累托最优。     

Emissions Trading with Updated Allocation: Effects on Entry/Exit and Distribution

Allocation of emissions allowances may have significant distributional and efficiency effects. It is well known that cost-efficiency may be achieved if allowances are auctioned or distributed in a lump sum manner, e.g., based on emissions levels before the start of the system (‘grandfathering’). Böhringer and Lange (Eur Econ Rev 49:2041–2055, 2005) show that a cost-effective outcome can also be achieved if the base year for allocation is continually updated (‘updating’), given that banking and borrowing are prohibited. In this paper we examine whether updating alters the entry and exit conditions for firms compared to grandfathering, and how it affects profits for new and existing firms. We find that the two schemes function surprisingly similar: First, the incentives to entry and exit are identical. Second, the total value of free quotas to existing firms, based on emissions before the system starts, is also identical without any auctioning. With updating initial claims for free allowances have a shorter lifetime compared to grandfathering, but quota prices are higher as firms anticipate the effect of current emissions on future claims to free allowances. The two effects exactly cancel each other out. If there is some combination of auction and free allocation, the total value of free quotas will always be highest under grandfathering if the auction rate is the same. Entry and exit incentives are still equal.     

The Impact of Cost Changes on Industry Entry and Exit

Increases in costs may have interesting, non-obvious effects on industry entry and exit. Three cases are possible when costs rise: the competitor neutral case, in which entry decreases and exit increases, entrant favoring, in which entry and exit both increase, and incumbent favoring, in which entry and exit both decrease. The model places restrictions on which outcomes are possible given which costs rise (marginal or fixed). The model can be used to examine the impacts of cost-increasing regulation or exogenous process innovation on industry entry and exit.      

Excess Entry in the Absence of Scale Economies

It is well-known that with free entry, more firms than is socially optimal typically enter provided there are economies of scale. This paper investigates the possibility of excess entry in the absence of scale economies We thank Simon Anderson, Tom Holmes, the late Arijit Mukherji, and Xavier Vives for helpful comments. We also thank the participants at the July 2001 Australasian Meetings of the Econometric Society in Auckland, June 2002 University of Melbourne-National University of Singapore Symposium and seminar participants at the University of Sydney and University of New South Wales for useful suggestions. We are especially thankful to an anonymous referee whose meticulous comments have helped us to improve the paper     

Cournot Competition and Hit-and-Run Entry and Exit in a Teaching Experiment

Instructors can use a computerized experiment to introduce students to imperfect competition in courses on introductory economics, industrial organization, game theory, and strategy and management. In addition to introducing students to strategic thinking in general, the experiment serves to demonstrate that profits of a firm fall as the number of competitors is increased in a market and that firms enter profitable markets. The authors have used the experiment in undergraduate classes on strategy and management as well as in master of business administration courses with great success.     

经济政策不确定性与企业退出决策:理论与实证研究

经济政策影响微观企业经营是现有研究的共识.在已有文献基础上,文章考察了经济政策不确定性对企业退出决策的影响.文章基于一个代表性企业最优退出决策的框架,构建了经济政策不确定性影响企业退出决策作用机制的理论模型,并利用1998?2011年中国工业企业微观数据对理论模型进行了实证检验.研究结果显示,经济政策不确定性通过增加市场预期收益的机制降低了企业的退出概率,即面对高水平的经济政策不确定性时,企业对未来市场形成了良好的预期,倾向于采取理性的"延迟退出"决策.进一步分析发现,企业退出决策的"延迟现象"在不同企业、行业和区域间呈现出异质性,经济政策不确定性更多地延迟了具有优越发展前景的企业、行业及区域的市场退出.从企业方面来看,这一现象在规模小、跨产业经营、出口、政府补贴的企业及创新企业中更加显著;从行业方面来看,这一现象在资金技术密集型的行业及生产率高的行业中更加显著;从区域来看,这一现象在市场化程度高的区域及经济增长快的区域更加显著.可见,政府的经济政策变动,不仅引导了企业制定理性的战略决策,而且激励了优势资源和市场的持续发展.     

中国真实利率的平稳性和区制性:基于马尔科夫区制转换模型

通过引入三种均值方差都可能不同的区制,并基于改进的马尔科夫区制转换模型对1989年2月至2010年4月中国真实利率演变的考察,结果表明不同阶段的真实利率的确存在不同的均值和方差;考虑到区制转换特征之后,真实利率大体平稳,有均值回复趋势。而以往的应用中,忽略了这种区制转换特征可能导致对真实利率预测值的系统性偏差。     

财政压力、产能过剩与供给侧改革

中国产能过剩问题自20世纪90年代末开始凸显,中央政府不断出台化解产能过剩的相关政策,但效果不符预期,这一问题值得深思。本文试图以地市增值税分成变化为切入视角,分析这一财力冲击对地方政府的财政激励效应。实证结果表明,地市政府积极应对增值税分成减少所形成的财政压力,努力发展能够带来大量增值税的产能过剩行业工业企业。最后,本文发现也证实这种"压力式"的财政激励使历次化解产能过剩政策的效果不佳。可以认为,财政压力是中国产能过剩形成和化解难问题的关键性因素。这对于供给侧改革具有重要启示。     

Optimal Taxation and Strategic Budget Deficit Under Political Regime Switching

I develop a dynamic political economy theory of optimal taxation and budget distortions in a model with partisan politics. Under asymmetric information, politics affects the distribution of utilities in the economy. Political regime switching introduces fluctuations of this distribution. These fluctuations justify strategic budget distortions by governments currently holding office and willing to favour their redistributive concerns against future majority. Under quite general assumptions on preferences, these distortions take the form of budget deficits (resp. surpluses) with leftist (rightist) governments. Endogenizing the probabilities of getting elected may reverse this result.     

从进入和退出壁垒看我国工业中的过度竞争

工业中出现的严重过度竞争造成社会福利损失和资源配置效率低下。过度竞争是由于进入壁垒低而退出壁垒高造 成。从进入和退出两方面分析我国工业中的过度竞争,在此基础上,提出纠正进入壁垒和退出壁垒的措施,有利于促使过度 竞争向有效竞争转化。     

Entry, Exit and Productivity: Empirical Results for German Manufacturing Industries

Abstract. From a model by Hopenhayn, three hypotheses can be derived: (H1) Firms that exit in year t were less productive in t− 1 than firms that continue to produce in t. (H2) Firms that enter in year t are less productive than incumbent firms in year t. (H3) Surviving firms from an entry cohort were more productive than non-surviving firms from this cohort in the start year. This paper uses unique newly available panel datasets for all manufacturing plants from Germany (1995–2002) to test these hypotheses. All three hypotheses are supported empirically for West and East Germany.     

Entry and Exit in International Markets: Evidence from Chilean Data*

Several studies examine the patterns and determinants of entry and exit in manufacturing industries. Not much work exists on entry and exit in international markets. This paper uses Chilean data to analyze the industry‐level determinants of entry and exit in export markets. First, we show as stylized facts that entry and exit rates differ across industries, vary over time, and are positively correlated. Then, we study the main determinants of these patterns. Our econometric analysis shows that within‐industry heterogeneity, measured by differences in productivity or other firm characteristics, has a significant effect on plant turnover in international markets. Our findings reveal that trade costs, factor intensities, and fluctuations in the real exchange rate play a minor role explaining entry and exit. This last result is consistent with hysteresis in international markets.     

理性进入和退出 走出微利经济

本文认为,过度竞争与企业的进入、退出有关。如果能够理性进入和退出,就能消除过度竞争,进而走出微利经济。在此基础上,本文就企业进入的内涵、条件、案例进行了论述和分析,并就企业退出的内涵、障碍、案例进行了论述和分析。     

外资银行进入模式选择——考虑退出期权

利用实物期权方法,在考虑未来退出灵活性的情况下,分析了外资银行对进入中国市场模式的选择。研究结果表明:随着市场波动率和外资银行退出收益率的增加,外资银行选择少数股权进入模式时的退出价值大于选择独立发展进入模式时的退出期权价值,因此外资银行倾向于选择少数股权进入;随着外资银行经营效率的提高和中资银行本土化优势的减弱,外资银行倾向于选择独立发展模式进入。     

Bank Credit,Firm Entry and Exit,and Economic Fluctuations in China

This study explores how a worsening bank credit quality affects firms＇ entry and exit decisions （i.e., changes in the extensive margin）, and how the extensive margin variation amplifies the transmission of financial and technological shocks to the real economy. Using a vector autoregression （VAR） model, our empirical evidence indicates that deteriorating Chinese bank credit conditions have a significant negative influence on net firm entry to the market. To explore the potential mechanism behind the stylized fact, we establish a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium （DSGE） model featuring fixed production costs, loss-related bank credit quality shocks and an endogenous balance sheet constraint which restricts the aggregate credit supply by the level of the banks＇ net worth. Model simulations indicate that the interaction of financial constraints and the extensive margin variation amplifies the impact of bank credit shocks on the real economy. When banks experience loss-related financial shocks, bank credit tightens, which increases firms＇ external financing costs. When the firms＇ expected income is not sufficient to cover the fixed production cost, some firms exit from or stop entering the market. As a result, the economy displays a severe recession and a slow recovery.     

产能过剩背景下跨国经营的实物期权价值

本文从实物期权的视角,研究产能过剩背景下中国制造业上市公司跨国经营对企业价值的驱动作用。根据实物期权理论,跨国经营赋予企业一系列增长期权和转换期权,有助于企业在不确定环境中提高运营弹性和决策柔性,从而降低业绩下行风险并提高业绩上行潜力。为此,本文构建出2008—2016年间中国制造业上市公司国际化经营的相关数据,在此基础上研究产能过剩背景下跨国经营的实物期权价值,发现跨国经营能显著降低产能过剩行业上市公司的业绩下行风险并提高其业绩上行潜力,而且东道国政治风险越高、东道国与中国经济关联度越小或东道国市场规模越大,跨国经营的实物期权价值就越高。研究结果表明,深入考察东道国政治风险、经济关联度及市场规模等影响实物期权价值的外部环境因素,建立健全海外政治和经济风险管控体系,同时,合理选择境外投资地点及其广度与分散度,积极优化海外投资区域布局,才能走出一条符合中国国情的新型国际化道路,从而适应和引领经济新常态、化解产能过剩并推进产业转型升级。