Fiscal Sustainability of Local Governments in Japan†

The total amount of Japan's local government (LG) expenditures exceeds its central government (CG) expenditures. Japan's LG and CG are responsible for the worst general government's debt situation among the G7 countries. The paper elucidated the fiscal reactions of Japan's prefecture governments (PGs) based on Bohn's (1998a, 2005) method with a panel dataset (44PGs, fiscal years 1974–2016), addressing nonstationary and endogeneity issues. In my model, a positive reaction of the primary surplus/gross regional product (GRP) ratio to the PG debt/GRP ratio (d) constitutes a sufficient condition for sustainability. The results of the study demonstrate the following: (i) the PG in any fiscal condition are assumed to provide sustainable fiscal management; (ii) the PGs in sounder or more dire fiscal conditions probably manage their finances more firmly; (iii) the fiscal transfers from the CG generally ease the PG fiscal conditions; (iv) although primary regressors d and dsq (the square of d) are assumed to be I (1) with some accuracy, they become stationary through cointegration with other regressors.     

Bohn's Test of Fiscal Sustainability of the American State Governments

The dramatic fall in state revenues during the Great Recession and the resultant large budget deficits accentuated concerns about state fiscal sustainability. I employ a model‐based approach proposed by 1998 to test for sustainability. In this approach, a positive and significant reaction of the ratio of primary surplus ratio (s) to lagged debt constitutes a sufficient condition for sustainability. Based on a panel of 48 contiguous states (1961–2008) and several model specifications, I find robust evidence in favor of sustainability. Further analysis suggests that the adjustment of the components of s to debt is asymmetric with the revenue side bearing a heavier burden than the spending side. The response of s is also found to be asymmetric with respect to the level of debt. Finally, the magnitude of the response is larger in states with a higher degree of fiscal stringency in general and “own‐revenue” and “no‐deficit‐carryover” provisions in particular.     

欧盟财政可持续性的实证研究

近年来欧盟成员国财政收支状况的不断恶化引起了人们对欧盟财政可持续性的担忧。本文从实证的角度分别对相关经济因素给定和相关经济因素可变条件下欧盟成员国财政的可持续性进行了检验,检验结果显示:相关经济因素对欧盟财政的可持续性有着重要影响,在相关经济因素可变的条件下,欧盟成员国财政具有良好的可持续性。     

Fiscal flows in Europe: The redistributive effects of the EU budget

Fiscal Flows in Europe: The Redistributive Effects of the EU Budget. — In this paper we analyze the redistributive effects of the EU budget among European countries, exploring the relationship between income and fiscal flows, both in per capita terms. Using a new data set on EU budgets from 1986 to 1998, we find that the EU budget has a redistributive effect, though only on its expenditure side. The most redistributive expenditure category is the Regional Fund, followed by the Social Fund and by the guarantee section of the EAGGF. All of them have become increasingly redistributive in time. Total budgetary revenues show only proportionality with income. As regards the net financial balance, three groups of countries are identified, given the treatment they get from the EU budget that cannot be explained by their per capita income levels.     

欧盟新成员国中的财政问题:前景与挑战

本文研究了中东欧新的欧盟成员国（NEW-8）所面临的财政挑战，其中，既包括来自欧盟成员资格的挑战，还包括本质上与该资格不相关的发展方面的财政挑战。尽管由欧盟成员资格所导致的直接财政压力可能只出现在短期内，且并不是很重要；然而，考虑到全球化（或投资区位竞争）及各国具体的结构特征对NEW-8的影响，这些财政压力可能更具挑战性。已被证实的是：新欧盟成员国既需要有关预算重构决策方面的改革，也需要有关增加公共支出及税收效率方面的创新。文章同时讨论了几种改革的选择问题。     

后危机时代美国财政可持续性研究

美国国债绝对额已跃居世界首位,美国财政可持续性受到世界各国的广泛关注。通过构建财政可持续性分析框架,结合经验数据实证分析,结果表明,尽管美国财政现阶段仍然处于可持续水平,但已经出现偏离稳态的迹象。进一步研究发现,未来美国债务货币化程度将不断加深,由此促使未来国债利率负担不断攀升,同时债务高位运行将导致经济增速回落,财政偏离可持续性水平的现象难以改变,如果美国没有调整财政政策,那么财政发生危机的概率极高。     

欧盟发展低碳经济的财税政策研究

欧盟在发展低碳经济过程中采取的财税政策比较完备,取得了比较大的成就.欧盟低碳财税政策包括促进乘用车减排、绿色税收、政府绿色采购、能源补贴与能效审计等内容,并在运用绿色税收、政府绿色采购等财税政策方面具有成功经验,可以为我国改革能源补贴、政府绿色采购、绿色税收等方面的财税政策提供借鉴.     

我国财政可持续性的实证分析：1952—2007

1998年以来,我国连续7年实施积极的财政政策。2008年,为了应对世界金融危机,我国又重启积极的财政政策。积极的财政政策在促进经济增长的同时也使得财政赤字显著增加和国债规模显著扩大,这就不可避免地引起人们对我国财政可持续性的担忧。文章根据政府跨时预算约束理论,利用协整方法对1952—2007年我国财政可持续性的状况进行实证分析。结果显示：从长期来看,1952—2007年,我国的财政是可持续的;从短期来看,1952--1978年、1979—1994年,我国的财政也是可持续的;但1995—2007年,我国的财政收支之间不存在协整关系,财政赤字政策不可持续。     

The Effects of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) on National Fiscal Sustainability

This paper presents a methodology to analyze the responsiveness of fiscal sustainability to the endogenous fiscal discipline that will be strengthened by the EMU. This discipline arises in response to the harmonization of tax systems, the loss of control of current and prospective money financing, and the deepening of financial market-based discipline. The model developed in this paper is a generalization of Blanchard's 1984 model, in which the interest rate is determined endogenously. This provides the framework to analyze more features of the linkage between sustainability and endogenous fiscal discipline. This paper also presents a new intratemporal fiscal sustainability index.     

A New EU Member Country on the Road to the Euro Area: Monetary and Fiscal Policies for Slovenia

Slovenia was the first of the ten new EU member states to enter the Euro Area on January 1, 2007. It was an explicit objective of Slovenian policy-makers to introduce the euro as early as possible. Slovenia was participating in the exchange rate mechanism ERM-II since June 2004. This paper analyses whether the choice of participating in the ERM-II soon after EU accession was the best strategy in terms of the macroeconomic performance. It is shown that a better overall economic performance could have been achieved under a crawling peg regime allowing a depreciation of the Slovenian tolar (SIT) before introducing the euro in 2007. The worst policy results are obtained when the exchange rate is totally fixed at an early stage of EMU integration. The labor market performance can be significantly improved by cutting income taxes and social security contribution rates.      

Fiscal Stabilization Policy and Fiscal Institutions

In this paper we analyse counter-cyclical fiscal policy withinthe context of a microfounded analysis of business-cycle stabilization.We show that tax and spending instruments can have a usefulcounter-cyclical role, even after allowing for the distortionarynature of the instruments and the need for debt sustainability.A critical barrier to the use of fiscal instruments may be politicaleconomy concerns, and we survey recent suggestions involvingalternative fiscal policy institutions. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: c.b.leith{at}socsci.gla.ac.uk; s.wren-lewis{at}exeter.ac.uk     

欧元区

欧元区银行在美资产降1／3自五年前金融危机爆发以来，欧元区各银行已从美国大举撤退，在美国资产减少三分之一强。通过银行破产、资产减记及贷款与业务部门出售，欧元区银行在美资产从2007年9月的1．51万亿美元峰值大幅减少5400亿。     

欧元区

8月份工业生产同比增长5．3％欧盟统计局发布的数据显示，今年8月份，欧元区工业生产继续7月份的回升势头，环比增长1.2％，同比增长5．3％，显示欧元区经济特别是实体经济出现企稳迹象。修正后的数据显示，今年7月份，     

欧元区

欧元区救助机制发行首批债券 欧元区国家设立的"欧洲金融稳定工具"1月25日成功发行首批50亿欧元债券,为爱尔兰救助计划筹集资金.此次发行的债券被定为AAA级,认购数量是发行数量的将近9倍,备受投资者青睐.     

欧元区

复苏迟缓 加息或将延后 欧元区2009年四季度GDP经修正后环比增长0．1％，年比下降2．1％。受德国和法国经济增长及出口订单推动，欧元区3月制造业采购经理人指数增至56．6，为40个月来最高水平，表明产出继续扩张。