Globalization and domestic conflict

When a resource like oil is domestically contested, trade patters and welfare can be very different than when property rights are costlessly enforced. Whereas (small-country) importers of the contested resource gain unambiguously relative to autarky, exporters of the contested resource lose under free trade, unless the world price of the resource is sufficiently high. Regardless of what price obtains in world markets, countries tend to over-export the contested resource compared to the absence of conflict. For a wide range of prices, higher international prices of the contested resource reduce welfare, an instance of the “natural resource curse.”     

Are Apparel Trade Restrictions Regressive?

Consumer welfare losses from apparel trade restrictions are estimated across different household income levels using Hicksian Equivalent Variations. The 1980–1992 Consumer Expenditure Survey, the 1980–1992 Consumer Price Index, and the 1990 ACCRA Cost of Living Index were used. For price differences under 45 percent, consumer welfare loss from higher apparel prices due to trade restrictions is greater as a percent of total expenditures for wealthy households than for poor households. Apparel trade restrictions, therefore, have a progressive effect.     

Global agricultural trade liberalization: Is Sub-Saharan Africa a gainer or loser?

This paper analyzes the potential impact of agricultural trade liberalization on Sub-Saharan Africa. We used the Agricultural Trade and Policy Simulation Model to estimate the potential effects of agricultural trade liberalization, mainly in the US and EU, on the world-market prices of agricultural commodities. We then used the estimated price changes to assess the impact of these reforms on net-food importers as well as other Sub-Saharan African countries that enjoy preferential trade agreements with the EU and US. The results indicate that the world market prices of all commodities imported by Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to rise while the prices of the key export commodities of the region would either decline or remain unchanged. Given that the prices of major food commodities are expected to rise, net-food-importing countries will experience increasing import bill, thus leading to welfare loss. Major Sub-Saharan Africa sugar exporters who are beneficiaries of preferential agreements such as the EU sugar protocol and US AGOA initiative will become losers as preferences erode due to global liberalization. Thus, the region is expected to generally become a net loser from the current WTO reform modalities.     

Productivity, terms of trade and the ‘home market effect’

This paper analyzes the international transmission and welfare implications of productivity gains and changes in market size when macroeconomic adjustment occurs both along the intensive margin of trade (changes in the relative price of existing varieties of tradable goods) and the extensive margin (creation and destruction of varieties). We draw a distinction between productivity gains that enhance manufacturing efficiency and gains that lower the cost of firms' entry and of product differentiation. Countries with lower manufacturing costs have higher GDP but supply their products at lower international prices. Instead, countries with lower entry costs supply a larger array of goods at improved terms of trade. Output growth driven by demographic expansions, as well as government spending, is associated with an improvement in international relative prices and firms' entry. While trade liberalization may result in a smaller array of goods available to consumers, efficiency gains from deeper economic integration benefit consumers via lower goods prices. The international transmission mechanism and the welfare spillovers vary under different asset market structures, depending on trade costs, the elasticity of labor supply, and consumers' taste for varieties.     

Liberalising Trade in the Agriculture Sector of a Small Island State: The Case of Fiji

This paper uses Fiji as a case study to investigate the impacts of three trade liberalisation policies – removal of sugar price subsidies, unilateral trade liberalisation and multilateral trade liberalisation, implied by the successful completion of the Doha Round. Removal of the sugar price subsidies has an adverse effect on real output, real national welfare and employment, but promotes growth of non‐agricultural exports in the long run. Unilateral trade liberalisation, in the form of tariff cuts in the agricultural sector, increases real output, real national welfare and non‐agricultural exports in the medium term. However, this growth is not sustained in the long term. The best outcome for Fiji is multilateral trade liberalisation which increases real output, real national welfare, non‐agricultural exports and employment. It is argued that reform of trade policies in less developed countries could come at a cost, therefore highlighting the need for compensating mechanisms to deal with the adverse impacts. Other measures to assist farmers to expand output in response to a rise in prices could include measures to reduce transport, storage and packaging costs, as well as institutional measures to enhance the functioning of input and factor markets.     

Trade and the enforcement of environmental property rights

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between trade and the regulation of what are otherwise open-access resources when enforcement of property rights is costly. When enforcement costs are significant, environmental property rights are only adopted and enforced when the potential resource rents exceed the regulatory cost. Since trade affects the magnitude of these rents, trade can affect the willingness to regulate. One of the most striking consequences of the presence of an enforcement cost is that the decision to liberalize trade, even at autarkic prices, can result in a switch in the regulatory regime and potentially reduce economic welfare.     

An antinomy in the theory of comparative advantage

This paper shows that the usual bilateral rule of comparing relative prices under autarky to determine the pattern of trade is not valid for the multicommodity world. In addition, equilibrium world price ratios need not fall between the corresponding price ranges under autarky. Such a paradox disappears under gross substitutability when the third commodity is a nontradeable. For the case of tradeables, an alternative bilateral rule to determine the pattern of trade is proposed. Since the classical constant cost case has been heavily discussed in the literature, we confine ourselves to the neoclassical case.     

Monopoly Prices versus Ramsey-Boiteux Prices: Are they “Similar”, and: Does it Matter?

Ramsey-Boiteux prices and monopoly prices are frequently regarded as being similar. This might suggest that sometimes monopoly pricing is close to the Ramsey-Boiteux second best and welfare superior to imperfectly regulated prices. This paper tries to specify what is meant by “being similar”. Both sets of prices are similar in a theoretical sense but differ not only with respect to price levels but can even lead to different price orders. The paper discusses the impact of competition and stresses the difference between market and residual demand, which are important for the Ramsey-Boiteux and the monopoly problem, respectively. JEL classification  L33, L50, L94     

我国铁矿石贸易现状及对策

自2003年以来,中国就成为全球最大的铁矿石进口国,铁矿石的依存度相当高,但中国在世界铁矿石定价中没有应有的话语权,只能被动接受既成事实,造成重大经济损失,成为铁矿石价格暴涨的最大受害者。在这个背景下,本文分析铁矿石的贸易现状,并提出了相关政策建议,以期最大限度规避铁矿石涨价所造成的负面影响。     

The Effect of GATT/WTO on Export and Import Price Volatility

Despite much interest and discussion concerning the trade‐promoting effects of membership in multilateral trade agreements, little is known about the effect of membership on world trade prices. This paper fills this gap by studying the effects of membership on export and import price volatility. We document a surprisingly strong and robust empirical regularity: GATT/WTO membership reduces the volatility of prices over time for both import and export countries, with similar results found for free trade agreements. We show that results are not driven by sample selection or endogeneity concerns and that the effect is captured by members subject to rigorous accession procedures.     

Trade Intermediaries and the Tariff Pass-through

This paper aims at improving our understanding of the price effects of trade policies following two perspectives. First, we wish to study how the role of intermediaries in international trade affects the transmission of tariff changes to domestic prices. Second, we explore how our results are influenced by the degree of competition in the distribution-service market. In a Cournot oligopoly-oligopsony model, we show how the pass-through of tariff cuts to domestic prices is limited by the market power of intermediaries producing distribution services. Our long-run equilibrium is characterized by a larger number of firms selling at a higher mark-up. Market access barriers in distribution services determine to what extent tariff cuts are transferred to domestic consumers and foreign producers, affecting the size of their welfare effects. The benefits of trade liberalization policies can be better achieved if they are complemented by competition enhancing measures in the intermediation sector.     

Political economy of the US–Mexican tomato trade agreement

We develop a political economy model to analyse the US–Mexican tomato trade agreement by treating the minimum import price as a negotiated settlement. We incorporate the special characteristics of the US–Mexican tomato dispute, namely trade among large countries, the role of competing fresh and processed tomato lobbies, quota revenues accruing to Mexican producers, bargaining for a minimum import price rather than a tariff, and the role of the Canadian tomato market. We show the importance of the size of the lobby group's supply, the weight elected officials' place on national welfare, and the elasticities of export supply and import demand in determining the optimal price wedge. For the United States, larger fresh tomato or cherry–grape tomato supply intensifies the degree of protection awarded to US growers, while US processors work to mitigate this effect. From Mexico's perspective, larger Mexican fresh or cherry–grape output induces a push towards free trade due to the agreement's depressing effect on Mexican prices, while Mexican processors and quota revenues exacerbate the price wedge.     

Globalisation and Poverty in Latin America: Some Channels and Some Evidence

This paper provides an overview of the main mechanisms through which globalisation can affect poverty and household welfare in Latin America and presents supporting evidence from different case studies in the region. One case study explores the impacts of agricultural trade liberalisation in world markets on poverty in Argentina, with an emphasis on labour income effects via real wages. The second case study examines the impacts of CAFTA on net producers and net consumers among the indigenous population in Guatemala. The analysis explores short‐run impacts as well as medium‐run impacts as households adjust farm decisions. Finally, a last exercise is set up to study the role of agricultural liberalisation on wages, employment and unemployment when there are frictions in labour markets. These case studies show that the impacts of trade on developing countries are heterogeneous. In Argentina, there are gains from liberalisation of world agriculture and higher food prices. In Guatemala, instead, the indigenous population would benefit from lower food prices. It is clear that household adjustments and complementary factors are fundamental ingredients of any reasonable evaluation of the welfare impacts of trade reforms.     

国际油价冲击对中国贸易条件的传导机制和动态影响

在成本传递和"部门转移效应"基础上,本文构建并检验了国际油价冲击对中国贸易条件的传导路径,同时利用VAR模型模拟了油价冲击的动态影响,最后分析了全球金融危机是否改变了油价对贸易条件的冲击效应。结果表明:(1)能源密集型产品与整体贸易条件的运动轨迹基本一致,先恶化后改善,最终收敛于0,但不管恶化还是改善,主要取决于外部因素的影响;(2)由于"部门转移"比较弱,非能源密集型产品的贸易条件改善,贸易福利虽有所提高,但仍会导致失业和资本闲置,从而扼杀社会经济长期健康的发展;(3)全球金融危机强化了能源密集型产品与整体贸易条件的运动轨迹,但削弱了国外的"部门转移效应"。     

CAPITAL INFLOW UNDER VOLUNTARY EXPORT RESTRAINT

This paper investigates the welfare consequence of exogenous capital inflow for the host country when the source country implements ‘voluntary export restraint’. In an imperfectly competitive market with an increasing returns to scale (IRS) sector, we show the possibility of welfare immiserization. Two channels are identified leading to immiserization. First, and this is direct, resource reallocation following capital inflow can squeeze the underproduced sector and reduce welfare. Second, contraction of the IRS sector can raise the return to capital, even when the price of the capital‐intensive importable falls unambiguously. Thus, even with an improvement in commodity terms of trade, the factor terms of trade can worsen and reduce welfare.     

The impact of agricultural and trade policies on price transmission: The case of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan

This paper examines the extent and speed of price transmission from international to local markets in two transition economies, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The two countries have similar economic backgrounds, but a notable difference is that Tajikistan has adopted a more liberal agricultural trade regime than Uzbekistan. We use a vector error correction model to analyse how global agricultural prices are transmitted to domestic food prices in the two countries. We find strong cointegration between world market and domestic prices in Tajikistan for food crops but not meat, and no cointegration in Uzbekistan.     

Clustering in the futures market: Evidence from S&P 500 futures contracts

We document trade price clustering in the futures markets. We find clustering at prices of x.00 and x.50 for S&P 500 futures contracts. While trade price clustering is evident throughout time to maturity of these contracts, there is a dramatic change when the S&P 500 futures contract is designated a front‐month contract (decrease in clustering) and a back‐month contract (increase in clustering). We find that trade price clustering is a positive function of volatility and a negative function of volume or open interest. In addition, we find a high degree of clustering in the daily opening and closing prices, but a lower degree of clustering in the settlement prices. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:413–428, 2004     

The impact of trade facilitation on poverty and inequality: Evidence from low- and middle-income countries

This paper using a trade model of imperfect competition and product differentiation, examines the welfare effects of two popular tariff-tax reforms: (i) a tariff cut combined with an equal increase in the consumption tax and (ii) a tariff cut combined with an increase in the consumption tax that leaves the consumer price of the imported good unchanged. It is shown that if tax revenues are lump-sum distributed and firms compete over prices, then coordinated tariff-tax reforms improve welfare for a low degree of product differentiation, whereas these reforms are welfare-reducing for any degree of product differentiation under Cournot competition. When, instead, revenues are used to finance the provision of public goods, then the total effect of these reforms on welfare depends, under plausible assumptions, on the strength of the consumer's valuation of the public good.     

The economic effects of withdrawn antidumping investigations: is there evidence of collusive settlements?

This paper analyzes the effects of antidumping cases initiated from 1990 to 1997 that ended in withdrawn petitions without a suspension agreement or voluntary restraint agreement. Monthly import data are used to estimate the price and quantity effects of the withdrawn cases. The estimated effects of the petition being withdrawn do not support the accepted wisdom that withdrawn petitions are a signal of collusion. This is an important issue, since out-of-court settlements of unfair trade cases which restrict quantities or increase prices are not only welfare reducing but are also actionable under the antitrust laws; they are not exempt under the Noerr-Pennington doctrine.     

The Tunisia Wheat Market in the Context of World Price Volatility: A Stochastic Partial Equilibrium Approach

Food security is a key objective of agricultural and food policy in Tunisia. The 2007–2008 food crisis highlighted the negative impacts of price volatility on international markets both in terms of food insecurity and budget exposure. Tunisian food subsidy expenditures ranged from $180 million to $710 million in 2006–2010, so volatile world prices meant volatile subsidy costs. Moreover, cereal production in Tunisia still has much instability due to climate conditions, which also influences imports and, consequently, subsidy expenditures. This study applies a structural model to conduct stochastic analyses of trade and policy impacts on food security and budget expenditures in the Tunisian wheat market. The methodology disaggregates durum wheat and soft wheat markets and generates projections of import prices of durum wheat and soft wheat, using projections of world prices provided by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at University of Missouri (FAPRI-MU). The key innovation is the generated stochastic analyses of subsidy costs based on stochastic world price projections and stochastic domestic wheat yields based on historic yield variances. The analysis highlights the sensitivity of subsidy costs to world prices, volumes imported and domestic production, so that alternative policy tools can be considered.