Putting industries into the Eaton–Kortum model

The article introduces the industry dimension into the Eaton-Kortum model of trade. Industries are linked with each other by domestic and international trade in intermediate goods. The model is parametrized using data for eight industries in 1989. It is used to perform several counterfactual simulations that are relevant to today's policy debates. First, the model is used to study the effects of the US–EU trade wars. It is found that trade wars have a greater negative effect on countries with large initial net export positions. It is also found that some trade war scenarios are more beneficial to the US while others to the EU. Second, the model is used to study the effects of trade barrier reductions between the high-income and middle-income countries. The results show that this trade liberalization tends to reinforce the pattern of trade according to technological comparative advantages. The results also show which industries should be targeted for barrier reductions depending on policy goals. The third set of simulations investigates spillovers from the technological growth in the US machinery industry. The results show how geography, technology, and industry links affect the propagation of this growth across countries and industries.     

国际贸易政策的保护性研究

文章通过对国际贸易政策的历史回顾 ,总结出了任何时候、任何国家的贸易政策的本质是保护性的。国与国之间贸易利益分配的差异 ,自由贸易对国家内部的不同部门 (利益集团 )的不同影响 ,是产生保护性贸易政策的内部原因和外部原因。贸易政策的国际协调并不能从根本上改变贸易政策的保护性的问题。最后分析了WTO条件下国家贸易政策保护性的表现     

不完全竞争、贸易与资源配置扭曲

传统理论认为,随着全球化的深入,市场竞争加强,垄断程度会越来越低,因此当市场处于开放的状态下,贸易被认为能够帮助纠正垄断定价带来的资源配置扭曲。然而数据显示,行业间和地区间的成本加成异质性随着时间增长在不断扩大,贸易使垄断力量差异变大。由于行业进入壁垒不同,贸易对竞争程度不同的行业影响不同,进入壁垒低的行业由于更易于参与贸易,成本加成相比于进入壁垒高的行业进一步降低,这也预示着各行业间的成本加成差别将会变大,资源配置扭曲的程度加深。本文试图建立一个包含不完全竞争的一般均衡模型,说明开放部分行业的贸易政策会导致福利损失,而市场进入壁垒的消除能纠正不对称贸易自由化造成的资源配置扭曲。     

贸易开放度、经济增长与劳动密集型产业结构调整

本文通过构建联立方程模型对贸易开放度、劳动密集型产业结构和经济增长之间的统计关系进行实证,同时利用VAR模型检验三者之间的相互作用。研究结果表明:经济增长不利于劳动密集型产业的发展,同时劳动密集型产业的发展也不利于经济增长;但贸易开放促进经济增长的同时阻碍了劳动密集型产业的发展。本文研究的政策含义是,当前政府应该优化劳动密集型产业结构,促进要素资源的合理配置;政府外贸政策的重心应该放在改变出口产业结构,使之朝着有利于转变经济增长方式的方向转变。     

从贸易争端中获得利益是关键——中国影响汽车零部件进口措施案分析

2008年7月18日,世界贸易组织(WTO)争端解决机构专家组公布了中国影响汽车零部件进口措施案的裁决报告,我国在此次争端中败诉。我们认为,不应以贸易争端胜诉或败诉作为判断中国应对WTO是否成功的关键,从贸易争端中获得经济利益是最重要的,我国应该继续利用WTO争端解决机制为我国汽车整车产业和零部件产业提供支持。同时我们也应注意采取更有策略性的贸易措施来保护国内产业。     

The effects of loss aversion on trade policy: Theory and evidence

We study the implications of loss aversion for trade policy determination and show how it allows us to explain a number of important and puzzling features of trade policy. Some important questions concerning trade policy are why a disproportionate share of protection goes to declining industries and why trade policy has an anti-trade bias. We show that if individual preferences exhibit sufficient loss aversion, higher protection will be given to sectors in which profitability is declining. We also show that if the coefficient of loss aversion is large enough, there will be an anti-trade bias in trade policy. Using a nonlinear regression procedure, we find support for the model and the estimates of the loss aversion parameters are very close to those obtained by Kahneman and Tversky (Kahneman, D., Tversky, A., 1992. Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5, 297-323.) with experimental data. Protection is found to be more responsive to losses than to gains, and the estimates of the coefficient of loss aversion are about 2. We also find evidence of loss aversion in lobby formation.     

An empirical investigation of the pollution haven effect with strategic environment and trade policy

Using a new dataset on the stringency and enforcement of environmental policy, this study is the first to find robust confirmation of a pollution haven effect in a cross-country context by accounting for strategically determined environment, trade, and intellectual property right (IPR) policies. A simple game theoretic approach to policy determination is described which suggests an identification strategy based on other country characteristics. It is found that for the top 20th percentile of countries in terms of growth in U.S multinational affiliate value added, as much as 8.6% of that growth between 1999 and 2003 can be attributed to declining relative stringency and enforcement of environmental policy. The results are robust to a number of identification tests, weak IV tests, and third country spatial effects. Further, evidence is found that relatively ‘footloose’ industries are more likely to be affected by environmental policy than more traditionally ‘dirty’ industries and enforcement of environmental policies tends to be a more important deterrent than the stringency of the policy set.     

贸易保护与幼稚产业的成长--国际的经验与中国的选择

从世界贸易史看,贸易保护与幼稚产业的成长紧密相连,但对幼稚产业实施贸易保护的经济效应并不确定,贸易保护的效应取决于一系列内生和外生经济变量,因而贸易保护政策应当慎用;幼稚产业的成长是贸易保护、国内支持、政治经济环境及技术进步的一个函数,对幼稚产业的界定和选择既应考虑经济效应,又应同时考虑国家安全、政治战略等因素。     

战略性贸易政策:发达国家与发展中国家的博弈

作为新贸易理论的主要内容之一,战略性贸易政策实质上是发达国家为自己的保护主义所寻求的借口和托词。它虽然在产业适用性和国家适用性方面设置了诸多限制,但印度软件业的发展是该政策得以在发展中国家成功实施的良好佐证。我国应该在市场培育、制度建设以及贸易政策与产业政策协调配合等方面进行强化,以利用战略性贸易政策来培育我国具有国际竞争力的产业。     

出口产品多样化对行业产出波动和绩效分布的影响研究

本文通过构建出口产品多样化、产出波动和绩效分布的测算指标,利用2002-2015年的跨国企业调研数据、行业数据和出口商品数据,运用计量模型检验了出口产品多样化对行业产出波动与行业绩效分布的影响。结果表明:出口产品多样化水平的提高显著降低了行业产出波动,而在具有强比较优势的行业中,出口产品多样化对产出波动的抑制作用更为突出;行业贸易开放度越高,行业竞争程度越强,则出口产品多样化平抑行业产出波动的作用越明显;出口产品多样化水平的提高有利于促进行业内竞争,有效降低了行业绩效离散程度,而在具有比较优势的行业内,出口"自选择"效应强化了行业内的资源再配置作用,进一步降低了行业绩效离散程度;在高资本密集型行业和高贸易开放度行业中,这种促进竞争效应更加显著。     

重商,还是抑商?——新重商主义背景下对于重商主义商业观的历史分析

在经济思想史的传统框架中,重商主义被视为一种强调商品经济发展的经济理论。特朗普就任美国总统以来,通过经济政策上回归重商主义,利用一系列的贸易保护和就业保护政策以实现再工业化,从而导致新重商主义在全球经济领域复苏。通过对于重商主义经济思想的回溯与分析,本文发现,作为一门民族国家的经济发展理论,重商主义虽然在政策上强调行政干预和政府垄断,在商业史观上强调对商品贸易的管制,但其政策效果对于制造业的发展却优先于商业经济发展;不但没有把商业经济纳入国家经济发展的核心动力,反而在较长的时间内抑制了商业贸易的发展,显得重商主义名不符实。重商主义作为资本主义经济成长初期的重要经济理论,更多地表现为追求国家经济崛起、财政收入增长的国家发展主义,其价值绝非简单的封闭保护主义。在今天经济全球化分工的体系下,所谓的新重商主义更多地表现为以贸易保护为名的贸易单边主义和霸凌主义,其与重商主义时代扶持民族幼稚产业成长、构筑民族产业体系的政策目标大不相同。     

Conflicts between antidumping and antitrust law in the EC

Antidumping policy aims at protecting single firms or industries from distortions in trade with third countries. A broad definition of dumping can, however, lead to protectionist measures which conflict with antitrust policy. To what extent is this the case in the EC?     

劳工标签:潜在技术性壁垒及当前的应对思路

在当前全球经济衰退环境下,贸易保护主义的风险加大。国际市场的收缩可能使我国企业面临更多的隐性贸易壁垒。劳工标签是其中较具代表性的一个问题。近年来,由政府主导的劳工标准与贸易政策挂钩的多边谈判陷入僵局,而以SA8000为代表的劳工标签,作为劳工标准的民间第三方认证,已对国际贸易活动产生较大影响。应重视当前形势下进口国可能加强的贸易保护倾向,全面认识劳工标准国际化和劳动力成本的提高,积极介入劳工标准与贸易相关问题的国际活动。     

贸易开放与经济增长的影响机制研究——基于广东产业专业化指数的协整分析

改革开放30年,广东省依靠政策优势、区位优势和华侨优势,实现对外开放的先行一步,带动了国际贸易的发展和相关产业的兴起.文章分析了贸易开放带来的产业专业化生产以及对广东经济增长的影响机制,构造了基于14个细分行业的广东生产率产业专业化指数,通过协整分析和改进的因果检验法发现:广东对外开放先行一步吸收了大量的FDI,提高了贸易开放度,同时专业于具有生产率优势和资源禀赋的行业生产,促进广东省经济的长期增长.     

Internationalisation, industrial policy and clusters

This paper analyses industrial policy in an open economy hosting an agglomeration consisting of vertically linked upstream and downstream firms. We show that optimal policy towards upstream and downstream industries may typically differ radically in this setting as compared to the case of a closed economy. Internationalisation in terms of international mobility of firms as well as reduced trade costs is found to have significant impact on policy design. We find that in addition to technology and demand characteristics, degree of mobility and level of trade cost are key determinants of tax and subsidy levels.     

Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis

We study the collapse of international trade flows during the global financial crisis using detailed data on monthly US imports. We show that credit conditions were an important channel through which the crisis affected trade volumes, by exploiting the variation in the cost of capital across countries and over time, as well as the variation in financial vulnerability across sectors. Countries with higher interbank rates and thus tighter credit markets exported less to the US during the peak of the crisis. This effect was especially pronounced in sectors that require extensive external financing, have limited access to trade credit, or have few collateralizable assets. Exports of financially vulnerable industries were thus more sensitive to the cost of external capital than exports of less vulnerable industries, and this sensitivity rose during the financial crisis. The quantitative implications of our estimates for trade volumes highlight the large real effects of financial crises and the potential gains from policy intervention.     

澳门回归后的对外贸易结构

文章利用翔实的时间序列数据,对澳门回归祖国后的对外贸易结构进行了全面的分析,挖掘出澳门货物贸易逆差的深层次原因是经济结构单一化和制造业萎缩,并提出澳门贸易结构升级的策略选择为政策支持及区域经济合作。     

Anti‐dumping's Happy Birthday?

The purpose of this paper is to highlight and discuss recent developments in the worldwide use of anti‐dumping (AD) policy as a possible strategic counterpoint to trade liberalisation. First, we review briefly the original intended purpose of AD policy, and reflect on its secondary position on the agenda of current international trade negotiations. Second, we discuss the escalating – and perhaps strategic – use of AD policy, particularly in the developing world, and highlight the roles of both interest groups and the state in determining policy outcomes. Next, we review the state of affairs of AD policy with the world's most active user, the US. In particular, we introduce and discuss the latest important development, the implementation of the ‘Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset Act of 2000’, which incorporates monetary compensation for petitioners, potentially offering more opportunities for strategic policy behaviour by firms, industries and the state. We conclude the article with a short discussion of directions for future research and some general concerns about the use of AD policy.     

Trade policy-making in a model of legislative bargaining

In democracies, trade policy is the result of interactions among many agents with different agendas. In accordance with this observation, we construct a dynamic model of legislative trade policy-making in the realm of distributive politics. An economy consists of different sectors, each of which is concentrated in one or more electoral districts. Each district is represented by a legislator in the Congress. Legislative process is modeled as a multilateral sequential bargaining game à la Baron and Ferejohn (1989). Some surprising results emerge: bargaining can be welfare-worsening for all participants; legislators may vote for bills that make their constituents worse off; identical industries will receive very different levels of tariff. The results pose a challenge to empirical work, since equilibrium trade policy is a function not only of economic fundamentals but also of political variables at the time of congressional negotiations — some of them random realizations of mixed bargaining strategies.     

服务贸易政策的成本估计:基于STRI的关税等价

文章利用OECD的服务贸易限制指数(STRI)和亚洲开发银行多区域投入产出表,运用Anderson和Van Wincoop (2003)引力模型分析框架和泊松伪极大似然(PPML)估计技术,研究了服务贸易政策对服务总值贸易和增加值贸易的影响效应,并评估了政策壁垒的关税等价。研究发现,进口国服务贸易政策对服务总值进口以及内涵的国内增加值和国外增加值均有显著抑制作用,且对国外增加值的进口抑制作用更大。对于不同行业,服务贸易政策的经济成本存在显著差异,服务贸易政策促进了电信服务和航空运输服务的跨境贸易,但是对其他行业跨境贸易有显著抑制作用,2018年关税等价介于2.4%~249.8%之间。