Dollar illiquidity and central bank swap arrangements during the global financial crisis

While the global financial crisis was centered in the United States, it led to a surprising appreciation in the dollar, suggesting global dollar illiquidity. In response, the Federal Reserve partnered with other central banks to inject dollars into the international financial system. Empirical studies of the success of these efforts have yielded mixed results, in part because their timing is likely to be endogenous. In this paper, we examine the cross-sectional impact of these interventions. Theory consistent with dollar appreciation in the crisis suggests that their impact should be greater for countries that have greater exposure to the United States through trade and financial channels, less transparent holdings of dollar assets, and greater illiquidity difficulties. We examine these predictions for observed cross-sectional changes in CDS spreads, using a new proxy for innovations in perceived changes in sovereign risk based upon Google-search data. We find robust evidence that auctions of dollar assets by foreign central banks disproportionately benefited countries that were more exposed to the United States through either trade linkages or asset exposure. We obtain weaker results for differences in asset transparency or illiquidity. However, several of the important announcements concerning the international swap programs disproportionately benefited countries exhibiting greater asset opaqueness.     

Information costs and home bias: an analysis of US holdings of foreign equities

We test extant hypotheses of the home bias in equity holdings using high quality cross-border holdings data and quantitative measures of barriers to international investment. The effects of direct barriers to international investment, when statistically significant, are not economically meaningful. More important are information asymmetries that owe to the poor quality and low credibility of financial information in many countries. While a direct measure of information costs is not available, some foreign firms have reduced these costs by publicly listing their securities in the United States, where investor protection regulations elicit standardized, credible financial information. A proxy for the reduction in information asymmetries—the portion of a country’s market that has a public US listing—is a major determinant of a country’s weight in US investors’ portfolios. Foreign countries whose firms do not alleviate information costs by opting into the US regulatory environment are more severely underweighted in US equity portfolios.     

加强金砖国家的经济合作

金砖国家是指巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非五个新兴经济体国家,其经济以快速发展为主要特点。预计金砖国家GDP总量占全球的比重2015年将会上升到23%,2020年将会达到31%,2025年将达到41%,2030年将达到47%,甚至有可能会占到50%以上。金砖国家目前面临的主要问题是收入分配差距比较大、产业层次低、社会保障体系不够完善、受通货膨胀困扰和国际短期资本冲击大。金砖国家应处理好与发达国家和其他发展中国家以及金砖国家内部的合作关系,把握好共同利益,在国际事务中加强政策协调,共同反对贸易保护主义,推动国际金融体系改革,积极应对全球气候变化,实现共同发展。     

The Effect of Governance Mechanisms on Small and Medium‐Sized Enterprise Cash Holdings: Evidence from the United Kingdom

This paper investigates the impact of governance mechanisms on small and medium‐sized enterprise (SME) cash holdings from 2000 to 2009, employing static and dynamic panel data analyses. We find no evidence that firm governance index and insider ownership affect cash holdings. This might indicate that governance mechanisms in SMEs are relatively weak. We also report that chief executive officer compensation has a positive effect on cash holdings. Firm‐specific factors such as firm size, leverage, and liquidity negatively affect cash holdings, whereas the research and development ratio and operating risk are positively associated with them. Finally, SMEs have target cash holdings and adjust to these.     

Welfare implications of trade liberalization and fiscal reform: A quantitative experiment

This paper studies the welfare implications of revenue-neutral trade liberalization and fiscal reform programs for developing economies using a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. We analyze how different combinations of tariffs – on imported consumption goods, intermediate inputs, and capital goods – and taxes – on consumption, labor income and capital income – affect the transitional and long-run welfare. We report three main findings. First, trade liberalization programs financed by consumption and labor income taxes tend to result in substantial welfare gains, but financing the lost tariff revenue through capital income taxes can have an adverse impact on welfare. Second, a significant fraction of welfare changes is due to transitional effects stemming from the allocation of resources in response to changes in tariffs and taxes. Third, trade liberalization and fiscal reform programs often translate into much larger welfare gains in countries that are more open to international financial markets.     

Gravity in International Finance

The past decade has witnessed an explosion of papers estimating gravity equations for cross-border financial holdings without much of a theoretical foundation. In this paper we develop a theory for bilateral asset holdings that takes a gravity form. We discuss how to estimate international financial frictions and conduct comparative statics analysis within the context of the theory. We also find though that reasonable extensions of the model no longer generate a gravity form. While this does not significantly complicate estimation and comparative statics analysis, it raises questions about the empirical validity of gravity specifications for cross-border financial holdings that need to be addressed in future work.     

Financial sector ups and downs and the real sector in the open economy: Up by the stairs,down by the parachute

We examine how financial cycles affect the broader economy through their impact on real economic sectors in a panel of countries over 1960–2005. Periods of accelerated growth of the financial sector are more likely to be followed by abrupt financial contractions than are periods of slower financial sector growth. Sharp fluctuations in the financial sector have strongly asymmetric effects, with the majority of real sectors adversely affected by contractions, but not helped by expansions. The adverse effects of financial contractions are transmitted almost exclusively through the financial openness channel, with precautionary foreign exchange reserve holdings serving as a key buffer.     

The financial determinants of corporate cash holdings: Evidence from some emerging markets

This paper investigates corporate cash holdings in developing countries. In particular, we look into the effect of capital structure and dividend policy on cash holdings in Brazil, Russia, India, and China and compare our results with a control sample from the US and the UK. Our sample contains 1992 firms across these countries for the period 2002–2008. We employ Instrumental Variables analysis to control for the endogeneity of the financial policies (cash holdings, capital structure, and dividend policy). Our results show some evidence that capital structure and dividend policy affect cash holdings. There are similarities between developed and developing countries on the factors determining corporate cash holdings. The results of our cross-country model provide evidence that capital structure, dividend policy, and firm size are important factors in determining cash holdings. Finally, we show that firms operating in countries with low shareholder protection hold more cash.     

Are the determinants of capital structure country or firm specific?

In this paper we investigate the capital structure determinants of Greek, French, Italian, and Portuguese small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). We compare the capital structures of SMEs across countries and differences in country characteristics, asset structure, size, profitability, risk, and growth and how these may impact capital structure choices. The results show that SMEs in these countries determine their capital structure in similar ways. We attribute these similarities to the country institutional and financial characteristics and the commonality of their civil law systems. However, structural differences arise due to firm specific effects. We find that size is positively related to leverage while the relationship between leverage and asset structure, profitability and risk is negative. Growth is not a statistically significant determinant of leverage for any of the four countries. Our main conclusion is that firm-specific rather than country facts explain differences in capital structure choices of SMEs.     

What do bond holdings reveal about international funds' preferences?

International bond funds are important institutional investors in emerging markets and their asset allocation decisions have significant implications for bond market developments and debt management policies in developing countries. This paper studies emerging market bond holdings of international funds and analyzes economic and financial factors affecting their bond preferences. It shows that mutual funds prefer to invest in countries with sound fundamentals and more openness to trade. In addition, they favor bonds with high past returns and yields while averting bonds with high transaction costs and idiosyncratic risks.     

FDI and Welfare Dynamics in Africa

This article examines the welfare impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) in a panel of 20 African countries over the period 2000–2013. We explore the multifactor and nonmonetary measures of welfare and the nonlinear effect of FDI on welfare. We used the Driscoll and Kraay standard errors and augmented mean group (AMG) estimator by Eberhardt and Teal (2010) to account for cross‐sectional dependency, endogeneity, and heterogeneity within panel units. The results indicate that although FDI is welfare enhancing, the nonlinear terms report mixed findings. When a multifactor indicator is employed, the increase in the nonlinear term is lower than the linear part. However, there is strong evidence that FDI is ultimately welfare enhancing when a nonmonetary indicator is employed. From an international business perspective, the findings have unlocked the welfare effects of international business on African host economies. International businesses through FDI can enhance welfare in Africa countries. However, the optimal efficacy of FDI‐welfare impact differs across the various dimensions of welfare. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

贸易对收入分配影响研究的最新进展及其评论

随着近年来保护贸易的盛行与收入差距持续扩大,国际贸易对收入分配的影响成为国际经济学领域的研究热点。本文从国际贸易对一国整体收入水平以及国内收入差距的影响两个角度介绍了近年来这方面理论的最新进展及趋势。尽管各理论分析角度、模型设计以及数据运用各不相同,但结论趋于一致,即自由贸易会带来一国整体收入的提高,但也会导致收入差距的扩大,因此保护贸易政策会损害到一国整体福利,自由贸易导致收入差距的扩大可通过适当国内再分配政策进行调节。     

Automatic stabilizer feature of fixed exchange rate regimes

This paper shows that countries characterized by a financial accelerator mechanism may reverse the usual finding of the literature — flexible exchange rate regimes do a worse job of insulating open economies from external shocks. I obtain this result with a calibrated small open economy model that endogenizes foreign interest rates by linking them to the banking sector's financial leverage. This relationship renders exchange rate policy more important compared to the usual exogeneity assumption. I find empirical support for this prediction using the Local Projections method. Finally, 2nd order approximation to the model finds larger welfare losses under flexible exchange rate regimes.     

When in peril, retrench: Testing the portfolio channel of contagion

The impact of past gains and losses on international investors' risk aversion is an important factor in the propagation of financial shocks across countries. We first present a stylized model illustrating how changes in investors' risk aversion affect portfolio decisions and stock prices. We then examine empirically the behavior of international mutual funds. When funds' returns are below average, they reduce their exposure to countries in which they were overweight and vice versa. An index of “financial interdependence” that reflects the extent to which countries share overexposed funds helps explain the pattern of stock market comovement across countries and the pattern of contagion during crises.     

Financial Globalisation and Emerging Markets Volatility

The volatility of capital flows to emerging market (EM) countries and frequency of financial crises have imposed high welfare costs on the countries involved. The empirical literature provides, at best, a mixed picture on the relationship between long‐run EM country growth and financial integration. Meanwhile, the prevailing policy discourse regarding reform of the international financial system remains incomplete: the focus has largely been on either institutional and policy measures required of EM countries or international crisis‐resolution procedures. The role played by private financial markets and institutions in the developed world has not received adequate attention. This paper describes some of the structural features inherent in today's financial markets that directly contribute to the instability in EM capital flows.     

The determinants of cross-border equity flows

We explore a new panel data set on bilateral gross cross-border equity flows between 14 countries, 1989-1996. We show that a “gravity” model explains international transactions in financial assets at least as well as goods trade transactions. Gross transaction flows depend on market size in source and destination country as well as trading costs, in which both information and the transaction technology play a role. Distance proxies some information costs, and other variables explicitly represent information transmission, an information asymmetry between domestic and foreign investors, and the efficiency of transactions. The geography of information is the main determinant of the pattern of international transactions, while there is weak support in our data for the diversification motive, once we control for the informational friction. We broaden the scope of our results by presenting some evidence linking the results on equity transactions to equity holdings.     

Variation in Corporate Governance and Firm Valuation – an International Study

In this paper, we investigate the types of firms that are likely to deviate from common practice in corporate governance of their home countries and examine how the deviation is correlated with firm value. Our results show that firms with higher institutional holdings, lower insider holdings, and higher sales growth are more likely to deviate from common practice in civil law countries, whereas, in common law countries, especially in the USA, firms with lower institutional holdings, higher insider holdings, and lower sales growth are likely to deviate from common practice. We document a strong positive correlation between governance deviation and firm value in civil law countries. This relationship is robust to different testing and sample selection methods. The results, however, are mixed for US firms and not significant in other common law countries. Using the deviation from common practice as a proxy of firm‐level impact on corporate governance, our results provide evidence that firm‐level effect matters in governance quality and the effect varies across countries.     

Financial super-markets: size matters for asset trade

Empirically, demand and market size effects play an important role for international trade in assets and the determination of asset prices. Financial integration decreases the cost of capital, asset prices increase with investors base and market size determines international financial flows. We present a two-country model with an endogenous number of financial assets, where the interaction of a risk diversification motive and market segmentation explains those facts. In our set up, an imperfectly competitive structure of financial markets emerges naturally and provides a new source for home bias in equity holdings. Due to co-ordination failures, the extent of financial market incompleteness is inefficiently high in equilibrium.     

The Masculinisation of Ethical Leadership Dis/embodiment

Using a worldwide sample, we examine whether corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance has an impact on the value of cash holdings. We find that investors assign a higher value to cash held by firms that have a high CSR rating. This result is consistent with the idea that CSR policies are a means for managers to act in the shareholders’ interests by mitigating conflicts with stakeholders. Finally, we reveal that CSR performance has a positive impact on the value of cash holdings only for firms which operate in countries where shareholders are well protected from expropriation by managers and in countries where the institutional quality is high.     

The demand for safe assets in emerging economies and global imbalances: New empirical evidence

Recent economic theory has singled out mismatches between the supply and the demand of safe financial assets in emerging countries as drivers of international capital flows and, ultimately, global current account imbalances. This paper assesses empirically the contribution of such “search for safe assets” to the size and composition of emerging economies’ international asset portfolios. Excess demand for safe assets in financially less‐developed countries would imply that these countries hold disproportionately high shares of their total portfolios in foreign assets. Moreover, financially less‐developed countries would hold disproportionately high shares of their foreign portfolios in financially developed countries, which are the major producers of ostensibly safe assets. This paper finds little empirical support for these predictions. Financially less‐developed countries allocate a larger proportion of their total holdings to domestic assets. Even when focusing on their foreign portfolios, there is no evidence of a general bias towards the assets of financially developed countries. Overall, asset mismatches do not appear to explain the asset allocation of financially less‐developed countries.