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1.
Econometric analysis of convergence processes across countries or regions usually refers to a transition period between an arbitrary chosen starting year and a fictitious steady state. Panel unit root tests and panel cointegration techniques have proved to belong to powerful econometric tools if the conditions are met. When referring to economically defined regions, though, it is rather an exception than the rule that coherent time series are available. For this case we introduce a dynamic spatial modelling approach which is suitable to trace regional adjustment processes in space instead of time. It is shown how the spatial error-correction mechanism (SEC model) can be estimated depending on the spatial stationarity properties of the variables under investigation. The dynamic spatial modelling approach presented in this paper is applied to the issue of conditional income and productivity convergence across labour market regions in unified Germany.First version received: December 2002/Final version received: June 2003We would like to thank an anonymous referee for his helpful comments. 相似文献
2.
Are different regions of the United States experiencing convergence in levels of GDP? Carlino and Mills (1993) examined this
question through time-series techniques, and found some evidence in favor of regional convergence. This paper checks the robustness
of their results by using new econometric methods proposed by Vogelsang (1998). Our results, together with results from Loewy
and Papell (1996), suggest there is stronger evidence in favor of convergence than previously thought based on the results
of Carlino and Mills (1993).
First version received: September 2000/Final version received: December 2000 相似文献
3.
System estimates of potential output and the NAIRU 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
This paper proposes a new approach for estimating potential output and the NAIRU. The methodology models these key unobservable
economic variables as latent stochastic trends within a trivariate system of observables comprising information on unemployment,
GDP, and inflation. Identification is achieved through the use of a standard version of Okun's law and a Phillips curve. The
performance of the procedure is investigated using Swedish quarterly data covering the time period 1970:1–1996:3.
First version received: June 1997/final version received: September 1998 相似文献
4.
The validity of the monetary approach to the Drachma/ECU exchange rate determination is investigated through cointegration,
impulse response and variance decomposition analysis. The empirical results reported confirm recent findings that the monetary
approach may be interpreted as a long-run equilibrium condition with highly complex short-run dynamics.
First version received: November 1997/Final version received: May 2000 相似文献
5.
Private consumption behaviour, liquidity constraints and financial deregulation in France: a nonlinear analysis 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper examines the effect of financial deregulation on consumption expenditure in France during the period 1970–1993.
A nonlinear model for consumption which allows for liquidity constraints through a time-varying parameter dependent on a proxy
for financial deregulation is estimated using nonlinear instrumental variables. It is concluded that in France financial deregulation
has significantly reduced liquidity constraints faced by consumers, allowing a higher percentage of the population to smooth
consumption over time. Evidence is also provided that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is not significantly different
from zero at conventional nominal levels of significance.
First version received: January 1997/final version received: May 1999 相似文献
6.
The proper panel econometric specification of the gravity equation: A three-way model with bilateral interaction effects 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
We argue that the proper specification of a panel gravity model should include main (exporter, importer, and time) as well
as time invariant exporter-by-importer (bilateral) interaction effects. In a panel of 11 APEC countries, the latter are highly
significant and account for the largest part of variation.
First version received: February 2001/Final version received: June 2002
RID="*"
ID="*" We are grateful to two anonymous referees and Robert Kunst for their helpful comments. 相似文献
7.
By Knut Røed 《Empirical Economics》2002,27(4):687-704
On the basis of macro data from 10 OECD countries, I find that the job vacancy rate outperforms the unemployment rate as
a reliable measure of domestic inflationary pressure. Moreover, while the rate of unemployment affects inflation primarily
through its difference, the vacancy rate operates through a level effect as well. In most countries, a unique equilibrium
rate of vacancies seems to coexist with a drifting equilibrium rate of unemployment. I show that this result is consistent
with existing theories of unemployment hysteresis that focus on depreciation of human capital and search activity during unemployment
spells.
First version received: October 1997/Final version received: June 2001 相似文献
8.
Using a new non-parametric symmetry test we examine Canadian contract and survey data for evidence of nominal wage rigidities.
We compare results from the two data sets with the view to examining the accuracy of survey data and consider whether the
private/public and union/non-union sector distinctions are useful.
First version received: July 2000/Final version received: June 2001 相似文献
9.
Michael A. Nolan 《Empirical Economics》2000,25(4):699-714
A grouped hazard approach for analysing multiple-spell durations subject to censoring is applied to spells of absence from
the workplace. We follow Barmby, Orme and Treble's (1991) procedure for dealing with unobserved heterogeneity, but argue that
their treatment of the observed discrete data, and the inherent censoring, is inappropriate and could lead to significant
overestimation of duration dependence.
First version received: September 1996/Final version received: June 2000 相似文献
10.
It is not uncommon to observe the published forecasts of economic commentators closely bunched together over long periods
of time. In our case, the phenomenon is observed for eight national panels of economists who report monthly forecasts. A framework
is developed that conveniently nests within it several simple, yet plausible forecasting rules, and allows us to explore the
extent of the clustering phenomenon.
First version received: June 1999/Final version received: February 2001 相似文献
11.
This paper investigates the sensitivity of the RESET tests, proposed by Ramsey (1969) and modified by Thursby and Schmidt
(1977), to disturbance autocorrelation in regression analysis. Porter and Kashyap (1984) show that RESET is not robust to
autocorrelated disturbance when there is a highly autocorrelated regressor in the model. We show that RESET is sensitive to
disturbance autocorrelation even when the regressors are not autocorrelated. We explain the findings of Thursby (1979) and
Porter and Kashyap (1984) as well as our result by showing that a spurious correlation between the regressor and the disturbance
is responsible for the serious size distortion of the RESET tests.
First version received: June 1999/Final version received: November 2000 相似文献
12.
This paper compares the practical performance of alternative goodness-of-fit techniques for count data models in the context
of a study of the determinants of demand for dental care in Spain. We apply alternative goodness-of-fit techniques to different
specifications. In particular, we implement recently proposed specification tests which are consistent in the direction of
general nonparametric alternatives. The analysis suggests that a negative binomial model is an appropriate specification for
dental care demand. Dental health and income are identified as important predictors of individuals' behavior.
First version received: April 2000/Final version received: March 2001 相似文献
13.
This paper demonstrates how Goal Programming/Constrained Regression can be used for cross-checking results from standard
econometric models as well as a stand alone methodology in empirical production analysis. For illustration, we re-examine
Berndt and Wood's (BW) seminal study of the U.S. manufacturing industry. Whereas energy and capital were found to be complements
in BW's study, we found them to be substitutes.
First version received: September 1996/final version received: September 1997 相似文献
14.
This paper examines price and inflation convergence between three European countries (Italy, Spain and the U.K.) and a European
average and, alternatively, between them and Germany from the beginning of the 80's.
For this purpose the long-run stochastic relationships on prices derived from the convergence criteria agreed in the Maastricht
Treaty are analyzed. In order to do this, some recent unit root tests have been applied as well as time-varying parameters
models.
The results reject the long-run convergence hypothesis in all the cases but allow us to accept the existence of catching-up
with the European average and Germany in some cases depending on the nature of the prices and on the countries considered.
First version received: March 1997/final version received: May 1999 相似文献
15.
Uncertainty of outcome versus reputation: Empirical evidence for the First German Football Division 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper deals with the determinants of match attendance in the German premier football league. We analyse uncertainty
measures of match outcome as well as uncertainty of championship outcome. Furthermore, we incorporate supporter clubs, reputation,
performance measures and weather effects as explanatory variables. Due to the limited capacity of the stadiums, observations
on attendance are right censored in our sample. While other authors use the ordinary least squares estimator, which is inconsistent
in this framework, we take this restriction implicitly in consideration by using a Tobit model. In conclusion, we show that
reputation and goodwill are more important for attendance levels than the thrill of outcome uncertainty.1
First version received: September 1999/Final version received: January 2001 相似文献
16.
This paper deals with an alternative approach to treating seasonality in error correction models for consumption with a parsimonious
parameterization as proposed by Harvey and Scott. We introduce an unobserved seasonal component into an error correction model
for Austrian consumer expenditures on nondurables and services and compare the results with different approaches. The use
of stochastic seasonal results in a definite improvement of the estimated model.
First version received: October 1997/Final version received: May 2000 相似文献
17.
Christian Jochum 《Empirical Economics》1999,24(2):303-322
This paper investigates the behavior of the risk premium on the Swiss stock market. The risk premium consists of two components,
which are estimated separately: the amount of volatility and the unit price of risk. By estimating a bivariate GARCH-M model
the volatility of the Swiss market is found to be strongly exposed to spillovers from the other major financial markets. To
estimate the unit price of risk a Kalman filter procedure is employed, which allows for variability in this variable. Investors
place a high price on risk, when the market is considered `expensive'.
First version received: March 1998/final version received: July 1998 相似文献
18.
Michael Fertig 《Empirical Economics》2001,26(4):707-720
This paper analyzes the determinants of immigration flows to Germany in a time series-cross section framework. The reduced
form of a well established theoretical model is estimated for a sample of 17 sending countries and a period covering 1960
to 1994. The estimates are then used to perform out-of-sample forecasts to assess the immigration potential from the Eastern
European accession candidates to Germany. These scenarios predict a moderate increase in immigration to Germany, especially
for the first round accession candidates.
First version received: July 1999/Final version received: July 2000 相似文献
19.
This paper estimates the Cagan type demand for money function for Turkish economy during the period 1986:1–1995:3 and tests
whether Cagan's specification fits the Turkish data using an econometric technique assuming that forecasting errors are stationary.
This paper also tests the hypothesis that monetary policy was implemented in aiming to maximize the inflation tax revenue.
Finally, the Cagan model is estimated with the additional assumption of rational expectations for Turkey for the considered
period.
First version received: March 1998/final version received: October 1998 相似文献
20.
Robert Haveman Karen Holden Barbara Wolfe Paul Smith Kathryn Wilson 《Empirical Economics》1999,24(4):571-598
We track the level of economic well-being of the population of men who began receiving Social Security Disability Insurance
benefits in 1980–81 from the time just after they became beneficiaries (in 1982) to 1991. We present measures of the economic
well-being of disabled individuals and their nondisabled peers as indicators of the relative economic position of these two
groups. These measures also provide an intertemporal comparison of well-being and hardship as disabled persons and their nondisabled
peers age and retire. We first show several economic well-being indicators for new male recipients of disability benefits
in 1982 and 1991. We then compare their economic position to that of a matched group of nondisabled males with sufficient work histories to have been disability-insured. Because labor market changes over this decade
have led to a relative deterioration in the position of younger and less-educated workers, we compare men with disabilities
to those without disabilities and distinguish different age and educational levels within the groups. We conclude by assessing
the antipoverty effectiveness of Social Security income support for both younger and older male SSDI recipients.
First version received: May 1998/final version received: July 1999 相似文献