SOME REFLECTIONS ON THE INTERSECTORAL TERMS OF TRADE(1) FOR DENMARK IN THE PERIOD 1949 TO 1965

This article is an extension of an earlier article dealing with gains and losses from changes in the terms of trade. The object of the present article is to show how gains and losses in foreign trade are distributed among the branches of domestic industry. To this end, price changes for gross domestic product at factor cost in each of 25 branches of industry over the period 1949–1965, computed where possible by the double deflation method, are compared with the change over the same period in final demand—i.e., consumption plus gross investment.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF TERMS OF TRADE EFFECTS

The change in goods and services available in a national economy brought about by the shifting of external price relationships is referred to as the terms of trade effects. This paper reviews the various methods which have been devised since the war to define and quantify such effects on the Gross National Product. The statistical annex shows that, as far as OECD countries are concerned, the differences between the various measures are not significant. Whereas the effects from terms of trade represented, on average, less than one half of one percent of the GNP of OECD countries during the 1960's the percentage has increased substantially since 1973, due most importantly to the increase in the oil price; by 1977 (on a 1970 price basis), it had reached 5 percent of GNP in Japan and up to 6 percent in Italy. On the other hand, the extreme case of Saudi Arabia where various formulas generate effects amounting to between one half and the whole of GNP, indicates that the measurement of terms of trade effects by various methods may give different results.     

MEASURING INTERNATIONAL AND INTER-SECTORAL TERMS OF TRADE: SOME METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES

The view is expressed that the well-known formulae for measuring changes in terms of trade cannot be used to conclude whether a country is better off or not. Other variables which reflect the impact upon production, employment, and the competitive position should also be taken into account.
Similarly, changes in terms of trade between the industrial sectors of an economy cannot be used to conclude whether one sector is better off than others. Other factors which play a role include increases in productivity per man-hour. These may help to explain why in some sectors prices increase less than in others. An attempt is made to illustrate this point using some statistics for the Netherlands.     

SOME REFLECTIONS ON COMPARABLE WORTH

Despite its somewhat impudent tone, this paper examines a major controversy. "Comparable worth" has its proponents and detractors, but as in most debates, neither side fully appreciates the maintained hypotheses of the other. From an economic point of view, the disagreement seems to boil down to differences of opinion about whether the "excessive supply" of women to "women's jobs" is a result of their different utility functions or of their different constraints. There also has been a serious confusion of the "normative" with the "positive," some oversight of the potentially large regulatory costs that would accompany comparable worth legislation, and a tendency to consider only the partial-equilibrium consequences of these measures. Each of these considerations is examined in detail, with the conclusion that while comparable worth measures might alleviate some inequities in the short term, the long-term consequences could seriously aggravate the very problem the policy was intended to solve.     

THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN TERMS OF TRADE ON A SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS: AN ATTEMPTED SYNTHESIS*

The objective of this paper is to reformulate the terms of trade effect within a framework of national accounts in constant prices. The issue has been discussed by Professor R. C. Geary, Dr. G. Stuvel and others. In what follows the author proposes a new formula for deflating the net factor income from abroad and the net lending to the rest of the world. It is shown that the terms of trade effect which follows from the formula be expressed as a synthesis of Geary's and Stuvel's approaches. The author also shows that a similar approach be applied to the construction of the sector production account in constant prices. By formulating an appropriate deflator which is right for deflating factor incomes he concludes that the terms of trade arising from changes in inputs prices relative to output price be closely associated with the term which expresses the effect of productivity changes.     

对我国"旅游扶贫"的几点思考

无论从自然资源还是人文资源来看,我国中西部地区都具有发展旅游业的独特的优势。因此,许多地方政府实行旅游扶贫的政策,十几年来取得了显著的成效。如今,我国实行西部大开发,中央要求中西部地区努力发展自己的特色产业,缩小与东部地区的差距。在这种新的经济形势下,我们又该如何来看待“旅游扶贫”呢？本文从怎样理解“贫困”;旅游扶贫是否一扶就灵;旅游扶贫与政府的关系;旅游扶贫与可持续性发展;旅游扶贫与创新等五个方面对贫困地区如何发展旅游业提出了自己的看法。     

FACTOR ACCUMULATION AND THE TERMS OF TRADE: APPLICATIONS TO THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS

Abstract.  This paper investigates the effects of population growth and capital accumulation on trade and welfare. In the absence of a terms of trade effect, an population increase reduces the standard of living and causes a reduction in welfare. An increase in population causes deterioration in the terms of trade of a labour abundant country, whereas capital accumulation improves them, regardless of the source of growth. Moreover, an increase in the South's population is immiserizing.     

WORLD INCOME SHARES AND THE TERMS OF TRADE: A NORTH-SOUTH GROWTH CYCLE

The trading relationship between a primary-producing South and a manufacturing North has dynamic properties of conflict and symbiosis similar to those of the closed-economy, worker-capitalist relationship. In a simple model these dynamics may lead to cyclical behaviour involving two variables, the Southern share of world income and the rate of exploitation of primary producing capacity. The rate of change of the terms of trade is also cyclical. Long-run income shares are constant, however, implying that the Southern terms of trade rise by just enough to offset productivity savings on primary inputs.     

TERMS OF TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NINETEENTH CENTURY BRITAIN *

International trade and economic growth have been considered intimately linked in nineteenth century Britain. Conventional estimates of Britain's gross national product, however, fail to account for changes in the terms of trade and may be misleading indicators of changes in real income. Revised figures that incorporate terms of trade changes are presented here. One finding is that conventional estimates of GNP overstate growth in real income early in the century when the terms of trade deteriorated.     

IMPACT OF ANTI-APARTHEID SANCTIONS ON SOUTH AFRICA: SOME TRADE AND FINANCIAL EVIDENCE

Economic sanctions against South Africa presumably are intended to cause economic damage. Trade sanctions should induce the South African terms of trade to deteriorate, and investment sanctions should cause capital flight and cause the exchange rate to deteriorate. However, due to the nature of the South African economy and to certain policies of the South African government, these impacts may be difficult to achieve.